EXPERT EVALUATION OF THE DRAFT FEDERAL BUDGET OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERAL BUDGET FOR 2022 AND FOR THE PLANNED PERIOD 2023–2024

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (11) ◽  
pp. 137-163
Author(s):  
Irina V. Karavaeva ◽  
◽  
Evgeny M. Bukhvald ◽  
Sergey V. Kazantsev ◽  
Andrey G. Kolomiets ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Expert Opinion ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Planning Period ◽  
High Quality ◽  
National Programs

Expert opinion on the Draft federal budget for 2022 and for the planning period 2023–2024 prepared taking into account the complementary provisions of the Forecast of the socio-economic develop-ment of the Russian Federation for 2022 and for the planning period 2023–2024, since both documents have a single conceptual position. A comprehensive analysis of those presented in the Explanatory Note to the Draft Federal Law “On the Federal Budget for 2022 and for the Planning Period 2023–2024” the main tasks and directions for the imple-mentation of state financial policy in the economic and social spheres. An assessment of the proposed meth-ods for solving demographic problems, the tasks of ensuring the acceleration of high-quality economic growth, the possibilities of countering challenges and threats to national security is given. The adaptability and suffi-ciency of sources of formation of federal budget revenues, directions and volumes of use of budgetary funds assessed. A detailed analysis carried out in terms of the formation of federal budget expenditures for the implemen-tation of socially oriented national programs. A forecast assessment of the effectiveness of the volumes and dynamics of financing incorporated in them during the planning period presented. Special attention in the expert opinion paid to the issues of financial support for regions and municipali-ties, the distribution of interbudgetary transfers. It pointed out that the planned financing does not correspond to the strategic priorities of spatial development. The general conclusion of the experts is that the draft federal budget aimed at ensuring financial stability and inflation targeting, but does not use financial mechanisms rationally to achieve the national objectives of Russia's socio-economic development in the areas of solving demographic problems, ensuring the accelera-tion of high-quality economic growth, improving the quality of life of the population.

scholarly journals APPROBATION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT MANAGEMENT PORTFOLIO MODEL

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 589-595
Author(s):  
D.M. Mikhaylov
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Planning Period ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Federal Budget Deficit ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

The article tested a modification of the G. Markowitz’s model for the task of managing the federal budget deficit in the formation of the federal law about the federal budget for the next fiscal year and for the planning period. The logical-mathematical method of empirical research was used in modeling with the use of theoretical conclusions in the sphere of public finance. The possibility of practical use of such a model is justified by the given assessment of the model parameters based on actual data for 2010-2017. Based on historical data, restrictions on the marginal volume of revenue planning from deficit financing sources are assumed. Because of macroeconomic uncertainty potential revenues are projected using interval coefficients. The effectiveness of the federal budget deficit management portfolio constructed according to the model is proposed to be compared with the deficit management parameters laid down in the federal budget in 2018. In addition, based on the assessment of the impact of diversification and expectations of economic agents (in the model presented as "transaction costs") the article discussed the feasibility of using the model in planning the management of the federal budget deficit. Taking into account the empirical results it is concluded that ignoring the expectations of the planning period in the formation of the federal budget deficit management strategy can lead to significant losses in revenues.

scholarly journals Regular Econometric Model of Taylor for Albania

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Ergys Misha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Financial Assets

The Taylor’s Rule Central Banks is applying widely today from Central Banks for design the monetary policy and for determination of interest rates. The purpose of this paper is to assess monetary policy rule in Albania, in view of an inflation targeting regime. In the first version of the Model, the Taylor’s Rule assumes that base interest rate of the monetary policy varies depending on the change of (1) the inflation rate and (2) economic growth (Output Gap).Through this paper it is proposed changing the objective of the Bank of Albania by adding a new objective, that of "financial stability", along with the “price stability”. This means that it is necessary to reassess the Taylor’s Rule by modifying it with incorporation of indicators of financial stability. In the case of Albania, we consider that there is no regular market of financial assets in the absence of the Stock Exchange. For this reason, we will rely on the credit developmet - as a way to measure the financial cycle in the economy. In this case, the base rate of monetary policy will be changed throught: (1) Targeting Inflation Rate, (2) Nominal Targeting of Economic Growth, and (3) Targeting the Gap of the Ratio Credit/GDP (mitigating the boom cycle, if the gap is positive, and the contractiocycle if the gap is negative).The research data show that, it is necessary that the Bank of Albania should also include in its objective maintaining the financial stability. In this way, the contribution expected from the inclusion of credit gap indicators in Taylor’s Rule, will be higher and sustainable in time.

scholarly journals SOCIAL CHALLENGES OF THE BUDGET POLICY OF RUSSIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 231 (5) ◽  
pp. 168-188
Author(s):  
MIKHAIL V. SHMAKOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Effective Demand ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Budget Policy ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The analysis of the draft federal law «On the Federal Budget of Russian Federation for the Year of 2022 and for the Projection of 2023 and 2024» conducted in the Federation of the Independent Trade Unions of Russia revealed impossibility of achieving sustainable economic growth due to lack of prerequisites for increasing of effective domestic demand. Approaches and measurers proposed by the author target to raise the effective demand required for sustainable economic growth.

scholarly journals Research on the Impact of Technological Finance on Financial Stability: Based on the Perspective of High-Quality Economic Growth

Complexity ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 2022 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Lu Shen ◽  
Guohua He ◽  
Huan Yan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Total Sample ◽  
Western China ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Shock Effect ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Negative Shock

This paper investigates the relationship between technological finance, high-quality economic growth, and financial stability. Based on data of 30 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) collected between 2004 and 2017, this paper adopts the method of factor analysis to construct comprehensive indexes of technological finance and financial stability before calculating green total factor productivity as the index of high-quality development, using the CRS Multiplicative Model. Then it constructs the spatial SAC model and PVAR model for analyses of the just-mentioned relationship based on the total sample of the nation and regional samples in eastern, middle, and western China, respectively. The results reveal that (1) All samples, whether the total national samples or regional samples of eastern, middle, and western China demonstrate the positive influence of technological finance on high-quality economic development, with an obvious spatial spillover effect. The impact factor is the highest in the eastern region, while the western region holds the lowest factor among the three. (2) Judging by the general national sample, technological finance has an obvious negative shock effect on financial stability within a short period, but the effect gradually dwindles as time goes by. This rule applies to the sample of the eastern region, as its technological finance poses a short-time negative shock effect on financial stability, before gradually diminishing to 0. Neither western nor middle regions have displayed an obvious shock impact on financial stability.

scholarly journals The Federal budget for the years 2019–2021: fiscal balance or economic growth? (conclusion on the draft Federal law No. 556362-7 “On the Federal budget for 2019 and the planning period 2020 and 2021”)

2018 ◽  
pp. 4-41
Author(s):  
S. P. Solyannikova ◽  
R. A. Alandarov ◽  
O. S. Gorlova ◽  
A. K. Karaev ◽  
O. V. Makashina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Budget ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Planning Period ◽  
World Markets ◽  
National Welfare ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Budget Policy ◽  
Balanced Budget ◽  
Systemic Problems ◽  
Welfare Fund

The authors present the results of the evaluation of the main provisions of the draft Federal budget regarding their compliance with the requirements of the budget legislation, and the documents of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. At the same time, we concluded that the transition to a balanced budget and active accumulation of funds in the National Welfare Fund, along with a decrease in the dependence of the Federal budget on fluctuations in oil prices in world markets, will contribute to macroeconomic stability. However, the transition to a balanced budget is also due to the rejection of tax and budget incentives for the economy. We identified systemic problems and risks of the Federal budget for the medium and long-term. The authors also assessed the problems of implementation of the main provisions of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation on May 7, 2018, No. 204 in the framework of the presented budget concept and budget policy.

The Instruments of the Stabilization Fund: The Experience and Prospects

2004 ◽  
pp. 65-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mst. Afanasiev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
The World

Сreation of the stabilization fund has become the main feature of the Russian federal budget for 2004. This instrument provides the opportunity to reduce the dependence of budget incomes on the fluctuations of oil prices. The accepted model does not consider the world experience in building of such funds as the "funds for future generations", and the increase of other revenues from the growing oil prices as well. That can lead to shortening and immobilization of the financial basis of economic growth.

Analysis of tax-spend nexus for Russian regional budgets

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-29
Author(s):  
Evsey T. Gurvich ◽  
Natalia A. Krasnopeeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
Regional Budgets ◽  
Econometric Technique

We study the tax-spend nexus for Russian regional budgets. Causal relationship running from taxing to spending is found, thus supporting the concept “tax and spend” suggested by M. Friedman. Next, elasticity of expenditure by revenue is estimated for a panel of 80 regional budgets basing on data for 2000—2017. Estimates are in the range of 0.72 to 0.78 (depending on the econometric technique), which exceeds elasticity for the federal budget more than twice. This evidences that fiscal policy at the sub-federal (as distinct from the federal) level has clear pro-cyclical nature. Besides, the largest sensitivity of expenditure to revenue shocks is found for the item “national economy”, implying marked adverse implications for economic growth. We suggest to mitigate this effect by modifying fiscal rules for sub-federal budgets. They are currently aimed primarily at enhancing fiscal discipline, with less emphasis on countercyclical policy, insulating economy from fiscal shocks.

Is inflation targeting useful for economic growth?

2017 ◽  
pp. 62-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Kartaev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Test Performance ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Growth Regime ◽  
Potential Channels

The paper presents an overview of studies of the effects of inflation targeting on long-term economic growth. We analyze the potential channels of influence, as well as modern empirical studies that test performance of these channels. We compare the effects of different variants of inflation targeting (strict and mixed). Based on the analysis recommendations on the choice of optimal (in terms of stimulating long-term growth) regime of monetary policy in developed and developing economies are formulated.

At the final stage of the global crisis: Economic tasksin 2017-2019

2018 ◽  
pp. 5-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. A. Mau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Final Stage ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Growth Stimulation ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Economic Area ◽  
National Trends

The paper deals with the global and national trends of economic and social development at the final stage of the global structural crisis. Special attention is paid to intellectual challenges economists will face with in the post-crisis world: prospects of growth without inflation, new global currencies and the role of cryptocurrencies, central banks independence and their role in economic growth stimulation, new tasks and patterns of government regulation, inequality and growth. Special features of Russian post-crisis development are also under consideration. Among them: prospects of macroeconomic support of growth, inflation targeting, new fiscal rule, social dynamics and new challenges to welfare state. The paper concludes that the main obstacles for economic growth in Russia are concentrated in the non-economic area.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document