scholarly journals Améliorer la prévision de température en montagne par des descentes d'échelle

2021 ◽  
pp. 037
Author(s):  
Gabriel Arnould ◽  
Ingrid Dombrowski-Etchevers ◽  
Isabelle Gouttevin ◽  
Yann Seity

En montagne, la prévision du temps et d'aléas aussi dangereux et localisés que les avalanches requiert une modélisation de l'atmosphère à haute résolution spatiale. Palliant des simulations coûteuses, des méthodes de descente d'échelle ont été appliquées pour produire des champs météorologiques à 500 m de résolution, sur les massifs alpins, à partir des prévisions issues du modèle Arome à 1,3 km. L'évaluation s'est concentrée sur la température à 2 mètres, paramètre météorologique clé pour la physique du manteau neigeux. Une descente d'échelle exploite un profil thermique environnemental. Sa pertinence est démontrée dans certaines configurations météorologiques, mais les erreurs intrinsèques au modèle Arome contraignent son potentiel. In mountain areas, a numerical model with high spatial resolution is necessary to forecast the local meteorological conditions and the natural hazard such as avalanches. To limit time-consuming computations, downscaling methods were used to produce meteorological fields within a grid spacing of 500 m in the Alps from the Météo-France 1.3 km resolution forecast model (Arome). The evaluation focuses on the 2 meters temperature which is a key variable in snowpack changes. One method employs a correction based on a local vertical temperature lapse rate. Its impact is quite positive in some atmospheric conditions but remains limited by the Arome bias.

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Mamtimin ◽  
Yu Wang ◽  
Hajigul Sayit ◽  
XingHua Yang ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
...  

As the largest fixed and semifixed desert in China, the Gurbantünggüt Desert has a longperiod of snow in winter and the rapid growth of ephemeral plants in spring, presentingthe obvious seasonal changes in the underlying desert surface type, which could lead to the significantvariety in the near-surface boundary layer over this desert. To clarify the influence of the underlying surface change on the near-surface atmospheric boundary layer, gradient tower data and Eddy covariance data in 2017 were analyzed. The results were as follows: the wind profile can be divided into the nocturnal stable boundary layer and the daytime unstable boundary in spring, summer, and autumn, while the wind profile dominating nighttime stability in winter. During the study period, the four-season temperature profiles can be divided into four types: night radiation type, morning transition type, daylight solar radiation type, and evening transition type, and the temperature difference between spring and summer is more than that of autumn and winter. The vertical temperature lapse rate can reach 4.5°C/100 m in spring and summer, while the vertical temperature lapse rate is 0.5°C/100 m in winter. The special humidity value in summer and spring is greater than autumn and winter. The profile is almost in the inverse humidity state at almost all periods in winter. The inverse humidity phenomenon occurred on the autumn night. Besides, the specific humidity is closely related to the temperature and the near-surface wind speed. The “rapid change” of the underlying surface of the spring desert region affects the surface energy budget, which affects the turbulent energy and the stability of the near-surface layer, thus affecting the changes in temperature, humidity, and wind profile.


2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-305

In order to accurately predict the pollutant concentrations and the plume trajectory in the atmosphere, it is necessary to take into account the effects of interactions between the plume and the surrounding environment. In fact, the atmospheric conditions have a lot of influence on the plume behavior. Earlier models were based on statistical approach. However, this approach presents many shortcomings, in that way they are unable to take directly into account some atmospheric properties such as the moisture of the air. A complete model is the one that solves the entire set of momentum equation completed by energy and species equations. A number of approximate predictive methods for the plume flow in stratified surroundings have been developed in the literature such as Abraham (1965), Schwartz and Tulin (1972), Sneck and Brown (1974), Wright (1984) and Hwang and Chiang (1986). In this work, we use the lagrangian concept based on the so-called projected area entrainment in its latest formulation (Lee and Cheung 1990) to predict the effect of relative humidity on the plume behavior. Input-required data include source parameters such as the gas exhaust conditions (temperature release, exit velocity, mixing ratios), physical dimensions (diameter and height of stack) and meteorological data. In the present work, only idealized meteorological conditions which neglect the vertical variation of the wind speed, the temperature lapse rate and the relative humidity are considered. The output of the model gives an idea on characteristics parameters of the plume such as its trajectory, its temperature and mixing ratio distribution and its length of visibility. The model validation is accomplished through a comparison of the computed plume maximum height with results obtained using empirical formulas (Hanna, 1972). Also, the calculated plume visibility length is confronted to the ADMS results obtained by Carruthers et al. (2000). The effect of relative humidity is then investigated.


2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1466-1477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth M. Sims ◽  
Guosheng Liu

Abstract When estimating precipitation using remotely sensed observations, it is important to correctly classify the phase of precipitation. A misclassification can result in order-of-magnitude errors in the estimated precipitation rate. Using global ground-based observations over multiple years, the influence of different geophysical parameters on precipitation phase is investigated, with the goal of obtaining an improved method for determining precipitation phase. The parameters studied are near-surface air temperature, atmospheric moisture, low-level vertical temperature lapse rate, surface skin temperature, surface pressure, and land cover type. To combine the effects of temperature and moisture, wet-bulb temperature, instead of air temperature, is used as a key parameter for separating solid and liquid precipitation. Results show that in addition to wet-bulb temperature, vertical temperature lapse rate affects the precipitation phase. For example, at a near-surface wet-bulb temperature of 0°C, a lapse rate of 6°C km−1 results in an 86% conditional probability of solid precipitation, while a lapse rate of −2°C km−1 results in a 45% probability. For near-surface wet-bulb temperatures less than 0°C, skin temperature affects precipitation phase, although the effect appears to be minor. Results also show that surface pressure appears to influence precipitation phase in some cases; however, this dependence is not clear on a global scale. Land cover type does not appear to affect precipitation phase. Based on these findings, a parameterization scheme has been developed that accepts available meteorological data as input and returns the conditional probability of solid precipitation.


ARCHALP ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 66-75
Author(s):  
Antonio De Rossi ◽  
Roberto Dini

The contemporary architectural production in the Alps of Piedmont has to be studied taking into consideration the contrasting phenomena of depopulation and tourism that have involved the mountain areas of the region during last century. In the fifties and sixties the percentage of abandonment of the high valleys reaches even 80-90%. Entire communities move to industrial urban centers in the cities on the plain. On the other side we witness to a strong polarization of the winter stations that become real “banlieues blanches” for the free time of the citizens and where the architecture of alpine modernism, with various forms, shapes. The paradox nowadays is that the rarefaction of abandoned and depopulated territories is necessary to force to start and choose new innovative paths. We witness a contemporary situation with different shades: on one side the well-established touristic territories that need projects to promote the redevelopment and diversification, on the other side the marginal places where are rising new visions are practices of reactivation of the territory in which architecture is fundamental. The topic of quality of the construction of the physical space intersects with the regeneration of places on a cultural basis, new agriculture and green economy, innovative development of the patrimony, sustainable tourism, with inclusive and participative paths of nature, by giving new meanings to places and building new economies and identities.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5309-5318 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Biondi ◽  
W. J. Randel ◽  
S.-P. Ho ◽  
T. Neubert ◽  
S. Syndergaard

Abstract. Thermal structure associated with deep convective clouds is investigated using Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation measurements. GPS data are insensitive to the presence of clouds, and provide high vertical resolution and high accuracy measurements to identify associated temperature behavior. Deep convective systems are identified using International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) satellite data, and cloud tops are accurately measured using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIPSO) lidar observations; we focus on 53 cases of near-coincident GPS occultations with CALIPSO profiles over deep convection. Results show a sharp spike in GPS bending angle highly correlated to the top of the clouds, corresponding to anomalously cold temperatures within the clouds. Above the clouds the temperatures return to background conditions, and there is a strong inversion at cloud top. For cloud tops below 14 km, the temperature lapse rate within the cloud often approaches a moist adiabat, consistent with rapid undiluted ascent within the convective systems.


2021 ◽  
pp. 103-110
Author(s):  
E. A. Stulov ◽  
◽  
E. V. Sosnikova ◽  
N. A. Monakhova ◽  
◽  
...  

Based on the daily measurements of atmospheric aerosol characteristics in the city of Dolgoprudny (20 km from the center of Moscow) carried out during 2013-2018, the influence of some meteorological factors on the concentration of various aerosol fractions in the surface layer of the atmosphere is analyzed. It is that the aerosol concentration depends most on the wind speed and the vertical temperature gradient. The method of simple estimation of aerosol particles accumulation conditions in the surface layer based on the use of standard radiosonde data is developed.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Qin ◽  
Guoyu Ren ◽  
Tianlin Zhai ◽  
Panfeng Zhang ◽  
Kangmin Wen

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important parameter in the study of the physical processes of land surface. Understanding the surface temperature lapse rate (TLR) can help to reveal the characteristics of mountainous climates and regional climate change. A methodology was developed to calculate and analyze land-surface TLR in China based on grid datasets of MODIS LST and digital elevation model (DEM), with a formula derived on the basis of the analysis of the temperature field and the height field, an image enhancement technique used to calculate gradient, and the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering applied to identify the seasonal pattern of the TLR. The results of the analysis through the methodology showed that surface temperature vertical gradient inversion widely occurred in Northeast, Northwest, and North China in winter, especially in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, the northern and the western parts of the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the northern area of Northwest and North China. Summer generally witnessed the steepest TLR among the four seasons. The eastern Tibetan Plateau showed a distinctive seasonal pattern, where the steepest TLR happened in winter and spring, with a shallower TLR in summer. Large seasonal variations of TLR could be seen in Northeast China, where there was a steep TLR in spring and summer and a strong surface temperature vertical gradient inversion in winter. The smallest seasonal variation of TLR happened in Central and Southwest China, especially in the Ta-pa Mountains and the Qinling Mountains. The TLR at very high altitudes (>5 km) was usually steeper than at low altitudes, in all months of the year.


2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 479-491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah M. Griffin ◽  
Kristopher M. Bedka ◽  
Christopher S. Velden

AbstractAssigning accurate heights to convective cloud tops that penetrate into the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) region using infrared (IR) satellite imagery has been an unresolved issue for the satellite research community. The height assignment for the tops of optically thick clouds is typically accomplished by matching the observed IR brightness temperature (BT) with a collocated rawinsonde or numerical weather prediction (NWP) profile. However, “overshooting tops” (OTs) are typically colder (in BT) than any vertical level in the associated profile, leaving the height of these tops undetermined using this standard approach. A new method is described here for calculating the heights of convectively driven OTs using the characteristic temperature lapse rate of the cloud top as it ascends into the UTLS region. Using 108 MODIS-identified OT events that are directly observed by the CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR), the MODIS-derived brightness temperature difference (BTD) between the OT and anvil regions can be defined. This BTD is combined with the CPR- and NWP-derived height difference between these two regions to determine the mean lapse rate, −7.34 K km−1, for the 108 events. The anvil height is typically well known, and an automated OT detection algorithm is used to derive BTD, so the lapse rate allows a height to be calculated for any detected OT. An empirical fit between MODIS and geostationary imager IR BT for OTs and anvil regions was performed to enable application of this method to coarser-spatial-resolution geostationary data. Validation indicates that ~75% (65%) of MODIS (geostationary) OT heights are within ±500 m of the coincident CPR-estimated heights.


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