Time Series Analysis of The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Author(s):  
Bin Zhao

Background: Since the first appearance of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan in December 2019, it has quickly swept the world and become a major security incident facing humanity today. While the novel coronavirus threatens people's lives and safety, the economies of various countries have also been severely damaged. Due to the epidemic, a large number of enterprises have faced closures, employment has become more difficult, and people's lives have been greatly affected. Therefore, to establish a time series model for Hubei Province, where the novel coronavirus first broke out, and the United States, where the epidemic is most severe, to analyze the spreading trend and short-term forecast of the new coronavirus, which will help countries better understand the development trend of the epidemic and make more adequate preparation and timely intervention and treatment to prevent the further spread of the virus. Methods: For the data collected from Hubei Province, including cumulative diagnoses, cumulative deaths, and cumulative cures, we use SPSS to establish the time series model. Since there is no problem of missing data values, we define days as the time variable, remove outliers, and set the width of the confidence interval to 95% for prediction, then use SPSS's expert modeler to find the best-fit model for each sequence. ACF, PACF graphs of the residuals, and Q-tests are used to determine whether the residuals are white noise sequences and to check whether the model is a suitable model. Holt model is used for the cumulative number of diagnoses, and ARIMA (1,2,0) model is used for cumulative cures and deaths. Similarly, we also collect data for the US, including the cumulative number of diagnoses, cumulative deaths, and cumulative cures. For the three groups mentioned above, ARIMA (2,2,6) model, ARIMA (0,2,0) model, and ARIMA (0,2,1) model is used respectively. Findings: From our modeling of the data, the time series diagrams of the real the fitted data almost overlap, so the fitting effect of the Holt model and the ARIMA model we use is very suitable. We compare the predicted values with the real values of the same period and find that the epidemic situation in Hubei Province has basically ended after May, but the epidemic situation in the United States has become more severe after May, so the Holt model and the ARIMA model are also very appropriate in predicting the epidemic situation in short-term. Interpretation: Because the Chinese government has always put the safety of people’s lives in the first place, when the epidemic broke out, it decisively closed the city of Hubei Province. One side is in trouble, all sides support, they concentrate all resources of whole country to save Hubei Province at the expense of the economy only in order to save more people. Now we can clearly see that the epidemic has been controlled in China and the whole country is developing in a good direction. The situation in the United States, on the other hand, is also influenced by the social environment.

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 237802312098032
Author(s):  
Brandon G. Wagner ◽  
Kate H. Choi ◽  
Philip N. Cohen

In the social upheaval arising from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, we do not yet know how union formation, particularly marriage, has been affected. Using administration records—marriage certificates and applications—gathered from settings representing a variety of COVID-19 experiences in the United States, the authors compare counts of recorded marriages in 2020 against those from the same period in 2019. There is a dramatic decrease in year-to-date cumulative marriages in 2020 compared with 2019 in each case. Similar patterns are observed for the Seattle metropolitan area when analyzing the cumulative number of marriage applications, a leading indicator of marriages in the near future. Year-to-date declines in marriage are unlikely to be due solely to closure of government agencies that administer marriage certification or reporting delays. Together, these findings suggest that marriage has declined during the COVID-19 outbreak and may continue to do so, at least in the short term.


2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 357-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Pickup ◽  
Dominik Stecula ◽  
Clifton van der Linden

The novel coronavirus reached the United States and Canada almost at the same time. The first reported American case was January 20, 2020, and in Canada it was January 15, 2020 (Canada, 2020; Holshue et al., 2020). Yet, the response to this crisis has been different in the two countries. In the US, President Donald Trump, prominent Republicans, and conservative media initially dismissed the dangers of COVID-19 (Stecula, 2020). The pandemic became politicized from the early days, and even though Trump and Republicans have walked back many of their initial claims, there continue to be media reports of partisan differences in public opinion shaped by that early response. At the same time, the response in Canada has been mostly characterized by across-the-board partisan consensus among political elites (Merkley et al., 2020).


2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (4) ◽  
pp. 745-757
Author(s):  
Jane F. Thrailkill

Abstract People over sixty-five have been singled out as a uniquely vulnerable risk group for the novel coronavirus. Yet the discourse of risk obscures (and exacerbates) socially created dangers of congregate care in the United States: poorly paid workers holding down multiple jobs and the endemic “plagues” of loneliness, boredom, and hopelessness. Humorous memes about who counts as old point out structural inequalities, while millions of able-bodied “shut-ins” (due to lockdowns and job losses) may experience forced empathy: fuel for new imaginings about how to care for—and value—elders moving forward.


Author(s):  
P.V. Shymaniuk ◽  
◽  
V.O. Miroshnyk ◽  

A comparative analysis of clustering methods was performed to identify gaps and anomalous values in the data. Data from the northwestern region of the United States were used for evaluation. According to the analysis results, it was found that the use of the DBSCAN method leads to a much smaller number of false positives. An algorithm for two-stage data validation using clustering and time series decomposition methods is proposed. Ref.9, fig. 3, tables 3.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anjali Priyadarshini ◽  
Archana Gupta ◽  
Manoj Kumar Yadav ◽  
Arpana Vibhuti ◽  
Ramendra Pati Pandey ◽  
...  

Tuberculosis and Covid-19 infection measure two quite different diseases- TB is caused by a sort of bacterium whereas Covid-19 is caused by a virus. However, the BCG immunizing agent would possibly facilitate individuals build immune responses to things aside from TB, inflicting "off-target effects," In different words, in run format, individuals started learning positive in obtaining the immunizing agent that had nothing to try and do with TB, several studies showed however the BCG immunizing agent affects individuals with kind one although the precise mechanism for these off-target effects of the BCG immunizing agent is not clear, it's believed that the immunizing agent will cause a nonspecific boost of the reaction. There is presently no immunizing agent or treatments approved by the United States of America Food and Drug Administration for the novel coronavirus. BCG is usually innocuous with the most facet impact the event of inflammation at the positioning of injection. Supported by these observations BCG so emerges as a possible candidate for the development of innate and adjustive reactions which can be non-specifically taking care of mycobacterium and different infectious agents against that vaccine remains not on the market.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0254127
Author(s):  
Sara Kazemian ◽  
Sam Fuller ◽  
Carlos Algara

Pundits and academics across disciplines note that the human toll brought forth by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States (U.S.) is fundamentally unequal for communities of color. Standing literature on public health posits that one of the chief predictors of racial disparity in health outcomes is a lack of institutional trust among minority communities. Furthermore, in our own county-level analysis from the U.S., we find that counties with higher percentages of Black and Hispanic residents have had vastly higher cumulative deaths from COVID-19. In light of this standing literature and our own analysis, it is critical to better understand how to mitigate or prevent these unequal outcomes for any future pandemic or public health emergency. Therefore, we assess the claim that raising institutional trust, primarily scientific trust, is key to mitigating these racial inequities. Leveraging a new, pre-pandemic measure of scientific trust, we find that trust in science, unlike trust in politicians or the media, significantly raises support for COVID-19 social distancing policies across racial lines. Our findings suggest that increasing scientific trust is essential to garnering support for public health policies that lessen the severity of the current, and potentially a future, pandemic.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L. Rosenfeld

At the state level within the United States, did political ideology predict the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Throughout March 2020, the United States became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, recording the most cases of any country worldwide. The current research found that, at the state level within the United States, more conservative political ideology predicted delayed implementation of stay-at-home orders and more rapid spread of COVID-19. Effects were significant across two distinct operationalizations of political ideology and held over and above relevant covariates, suggesting a potentially unique role of political ideology in the United States’ COVID-19 outbreak. Considering political ideological factors may offer valuable insights into epidemiological processes surrounding COVID-19.


Author(s):  
Sameer Imtiaz ◽  
Frishta Nafeh ◽  
Cayley Russell ◽  
Farihah Ali ◽  
Tara Elton-Marshall ◽  
...  

Abstract Background There are preliminary indications that the trajectory of drug overdose-related deaths in North America has been exacerbated due to the novel coronavirus disease pandemic (COVID-19). As such, the impact of COVID-19 on drug overdose-related deaths was examined through a systematic review of the literature and percentage change analyses of surveillance data. Methods Systematic searches in electronic databases were conducted, a topical issue brief and bibliography were reviewed, reference lists of included studies were searched and expert consultations were held to identify studies (Registration # CRD42021230223). Observational studies from the United States and Canada were eligible for inclusion if drug overdose-related deaths were assessed in quantitative or qualitative analyses onwards from at least March 2020. In addition, percentage changes comparing drug overdose-related deaths in the second annual quarter (Q2 2020 [April to June]) with the first annual quarter (Q1 2020 [January to March]) were generated using national and subnational data from public health surveillance systems and reports from jurisdictions in the United States and Canada. Results Nine studies were included in the systematic review, eight from the United States and one from Canada. The maximum outcome assessment period in the included studies extended until September 2020. Drug overdose-related deaths after the onset of COVID-19 were higher compared with the months leading up to the pandemic in 2020 and the comparative months in 2019. In additional percentage change analyses, drug overdose-related deaths increased by 2 to 60% in jurisdictions in the United States and by 58% in Canada when comparing Q2 2020 with Q1 2020. Conclusions Drug overdose-related deaths increased after the onset of COVID-19. The current situation necessitates a multi-pronged approach, encompassing expanded access to substance use disorder treatment, undisrupted access to harm reduction services, emphasis on risk reduction strategies, provision of a safe drug supply and decriminalization of drug use.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pooja Patel ◽  
Hans House

Abstract The Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was introduced into the United States via travel from Asia and Europe, although the extent of the spread of the disease was limited in the early days of the pandemic. Consequently, international travel may have played a role in the transmission of the disease into Iowa. This study seeks to determine how preferences for international travel changed as novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) spread throughout the world and if any of these returning travelers developed COVID-19 as a result of their trips. This is a retrospective chart review of patients presenting to a travel clinic in Bettendorf, Iowa for pre-travel advice and vaccinations. From October 2019 to March 2020, four hundred twelve (n=412) patients presented to the clinic. Intended travel to the Western Pacific region (China, Japan, Korea, etc.) decreased dramatically during the study period. All 412 patients were followed in the electronic medical record for the period after their planned travel and only three (3) presented for COVID-19 testing. Two (2) tested positive, and both of these infections were linked to workplace exposures and not due to travel. News of the growing pandemic and travel warnings likely altered patients’ travel plans and decreased travel to the most affected regions of the world in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on our study, travel was not a significant source of COVID-19 exposure for patients seen at this clinic.


2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 175-182
Author(s):  
Jim Thigpen

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), appeared in the United States over 1 year ago. This virus has a wide range of presentations, from being asymptomatic to causing severe acute respiratory syndrome, which can lead to death. It has led to a worldwide effort to find effective treatments, from repurposed medications to new discoveries, as well as the push to develop effective vaccines. As the race to fight this pandemic unfolds, this column provides what is currently available to combat this virus, how it has been utilized in the pregnant population, and what data have been made available about how these treatments affect fetal development and the neonate.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document