Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans-boundary assisted colonization

Environmental conditions are the basis of plant reproduction and are the critical factors controlling seed dormancy and germination. Global climate change is currently affecting environmental conditions and changing the reproduction of plants from seeds. Disturbances in germination will cause disturbances in the diversity of plant communities. Models developed for climate change scenarios show that some species will face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. Dormancy is an adaptive mechanism that affects the probability of survival of a species. The ability of seeds of many plant species to survive until dormancy recedes and meet the requirements for germination is an adaptive strategy that can act as a buffer against the negative effects of environmental heterogeneity. The influence of temperature and humidity on seed dormancy status underlines the need to understand how changing environmental conditions will affect seed germination patterns. Knowledge of these processes is important for understanding plant evolution and adaptation to changes in the habitat. The network of genes controlling seed dormancy under the influence of environmental conditions is not fully characterized. Integrating research techniques from different disciplines of biology could aid understanding of the mechanisms of the processes controlling seed germination. Transcriptomics, proteomics, epigenetics, and other fields provide researchers with new opportunities to understand the many processes of plant life. This paper focuses on presenting the adaptation mechanism of seed dormancy and germination to the various environments, with emphasis on their prospective roles in adaptation to the changing climate.

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Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

Biodiversity Data Journal ◽

10.3897/bdj.8.e49164 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽

Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Wildlife Conservation ◽

Distribution Patterns ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

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Potential suitable habitat of Eleusine coracana (L) gaertn (Finger millet) under the climate change scenarios in Nepal

BMC Ecology ◽

10.1186/s12898-020-00287-6 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Dol Raj Luitel ◽

Mohan Siwakoti ◽

Mohan D. Joshi ◽

Muniappan Rangaswami ◽

Pramod K. Jha

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Finger Millet ◽

Eleusine Coracana ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

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Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11060689 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 689

Author(s):

Gisel Garza ◽

Armida Rivera ◽

Crystian Sadiel Venegas Barrera ◽

José Guadalupe Martinez-Ávalos ◽

Jon Dale ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

General Circulation ◽

Private Property ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Endangered Plant ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The U.S

Walker’s Manihot, Manihot walkerae, is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion of extreme southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. M. walkerae populations are highly fragmented and are found on both protected public lands and private property. Habitat loss and competition by invasive species are the most detrimental threats for M. walkerae; however, the effect of climate change on M. walkerae’s geographic distribution remains unexplored and could result in further range restrictions. Our objectives are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of M. walkerae and assess the usefulness of natural protected areas in future conservation. We predict current and future geographic distribution for M. walkerae (years 2050 and 2070) using three different general circulation models (CM3, CMIP5, and HADGEM) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). A total of nineteen spatially rarefied occurrences for M. walkerae and ten non-highly correlated bioclimatic variables were inputted to the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce twenty replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model was higher than 0.90 and the partial ROC value was higher than 1.80, indicating a high predictive ability. The potential reduction in geographic distribution for M. walkerae by the effect of climate change was variable throughout the models, but collectively they predict a restriction in distribution. The most severe reductions were 9% for the year 2050 with the CM3 model at an 8.5 RCP, and 14% for the year 2070 with the CMIP5 model at the 4.5 RCP. The future geographic distribution of M. walkerae was overlapped with protected lands in the U.S. and Mexico in order to identify areas that could be suitable for future conservation efforts. In the U.S. there are several protected areas that are potentially suitable for M. walkerae, whereas in Mexico no protected areas exist within M. walkerae suitable habitat.

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Predicting the Bioclimatic Habitat Suitability of Ginkgo biloba L. in China with Field-Test Validations

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10080705 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 705 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Ying Guo ◽

Jing Guo ◽

Xin Shen ◽

Guibin Wang ◽

Tongli Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Field Test ◽

Ginkgo Biloba ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Leaf Traits ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Living Fossil ◽

Model Predictions ◽

The Impact

Ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba L.) is not only considered a ‘living fossil’, but also has important ecological, economic, and medicinal values. However, the impact of climate change on the performance and distribution of this plant is an increasing concern. In this study, we developed a bioclimatic model based on data about the occurrence of ginkgo from 277 locations, and validated model predictions using a wide-ranging field test (12 test sites, located at the areas from 22.49° N to 39.32° N, and 81.11° E to 123.53° E). We found that the degree-days below zero were the most important climate variable determining ginkgo distribution. Based on the model predictions, we classified the habitat suitability for ginkgo into four categories (high, medium, low, and unsuitable), accounting for 9.29%, 6.09%, 8.46%, and 76.16% of China’s land area, respectively. The ANOVA results of the validation test showed significant differences in observed leaf-traits among the four habitat types (p < 0.05), and importantly the rankings of the leaf traits were consistent with our classification of the habitat suitability, suggesting the effectiveness of our classification in terms of biological and economic significance. In addition, we projected that suitable (high and medium) habitats for ginkgo would shrink and shift northward under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for three future periods (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). However, the area of low-suitable habitat would increase, resulting in a slight decrease in unsuitable habitats. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of climate change impact on this plant and provide a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies for future climate.

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Assessing potential effects of land use and climate change on mammal distributions in northern Thailand

Wildlife Research ◽

10.1071/wr14171 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 41 (6) ◽

pp. 522 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Yongyut Trisurat ◽

Budsabong Kanchanasaka ◽

Holger Kreft

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Species Richness ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Spatially Explicit ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Combined Effects ◽

Mammal Species ◽

Effects Of Land Use

Context Tropical ecosystems are widely recognised for their high species richness and outstanding concentrations of rare and endemic species. Previous studies either focussed on the effects of deforestation or climate change, whereas studies on the combined effects of these two major threats are limited. Aims This research aimed to model current and future distributions of medium- to large-sized mammal species on the basis of different land-use and climate-change scenarios in 2050 and to assess whether the predicted effects of land-use change are greater than those of climate change and whether the combined effects of these drivers are greater than those of either individual driver. Methods The present article demonstrates a method for combining nationwide wildlife-inventory data, spatially explicit species-distribution models, current and predicted future bioclimatic variables, other biophysical factors and human disturbance to map distributions of mammal species on the basis of different land-use and climate-change scenarios and to assess the role of protected areas in conservation planning. Key results Seventeen medium- to large-sized mammal species were selected for modelling. Most selected species were predicted to lose suitable habitat if the remaining forest cover declines from the current level of 57% to 50% in 2050. The predicted effects of deforestation were stronger than the effects of climate change. When climate and land-use change were combined, the predicted impacts were more severe. Most species would lose suitable habitat and the average shift in species distribution was greater than 40%. Conclusions The predicted effects were positive for only a few species and negative for most species. Current and future centres of mammal-species richness were predicted in large and contiguous protected forests and the average contribution of existing and proposed protected areas in protecting the focal species will increase from 73% to 80% across all scenarios. Implications The present research advances the current understanding of the ecology of 17 medium- to large-sized mammal species with conservation relevance and the factors that affect their distributions at the landscape scale. In addition, the research demonstrated that spatially explicit models and protected areas are effective means to contribute to protection of mammal species in current and future land-use and climate-change scenarios.

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Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽

10.3390/f9010009 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 9 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Jinghua Huang ◽

Guoqing Li ◽

Jie Li ◽

Xiaoqin Zhang ◽

Meijie Yan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Buckthorn ◽

Range Shifts ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

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Perceived Barriers to the Use of Assisted Colonization for Climate Sensitive Species in the Hawaiian Islands

Environmental Management ◽

10.1007/s00267-021-01491-w ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Shannon N. Rivera ◽

Lucas Berio Fortini ◽

Sheldon Plentovich ◽

Melissa R. Price

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Hawaiian Islands ◽

Perceived Barriers ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Mountain Range ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Risk And Uncertainty ◽

Sensitive Species ◽

Conservation Actions ◽

Assisted Colonization

AbstractConservation actions to safeguard climate change vulnerable species may not be utilized due to a variety of perceived barriers. Assisted colonization, the intentional movement and release of an organism outside its historical range, is one tool available for species predicted to lose habitat under future climate change scenarios, particularly for single island or single mountain range endemic species. Despite the existence of policies that allow for this action, to date, assisted colonization has rarely been utilized for species of conservation concern in the Hawaiian Islands. Given the potential for climate driven biodiversity loss, the Hawaiian Islands are a prime location for the consideration of adaptation strategies. We used first-person interviews with conservation decision makers, managers, and scientists who work with endangered species in the Hawaiian Islands to identify perceived barriers to the use of assisted colonization. We found that assisted colonization was often not considered or utilized due to a lack of expertize with translocations; ecological risk and uncertainty, economic constraints, concerns regarding policies and permitting, concerns with public perception, and institutional resistance. Therefore, conservation planners may benefit from decision tools that integrate risk and uncertainty into decision models, and compare potential outcomes among conservation actions under consideration, including assisted colonization. Within a decision framework that addresses concerns, all conservation actions for climate sensitive species, including assisted colonization, may be considered in a timely manner.

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A process to support species conservation planning and climate change readiness in protected areas

10.7287/peerj.preprints.492v1 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Nicole Angeli ◽

Javier Otegui ◽

Margot Wood ◽

Emma P. Gomez-Ruiz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Conservation Planning ◽

Species Interactions ◽

Species Range ◽

Range Shifts ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.

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A process to support species conservation planning and climate change readiness in protected areas

10.7287/peerj.preprints.492v2 ◽

2014 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nicole F. Angeli ◽

Javier Otegui ◽

Margot Wood ◽

Emma P. Gomez-Ruiz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Conservation Planning ◽

Species Interactions ◽

Species Range ◽

Range Shifts ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.

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