scholarly journals MEASURING POVERTY CYCLES IN THE U.S. 1959–2013

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1737-1754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marinko Škare ◽  
Romina Pržiklas Družeta ◽  
Damian Škare
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Poverty Dynamics ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Economic Well Being

This paper aims to shed light on the nature of poverty as a dynamic process by examining poverty cycles, their magnitudes, and their asymmetry. The designated benchmark country is the USA due to the availability of time series data making comprehensive analyses possible. We use Harding and Pagan (2002) and the Cardinale and Taylor (2009) model to isolate poverty cycles in the U.S. during 1959–2013. Once isolated, we test the poverty cycles for duration dependency, and their synchronization with the U.S. business cycles observed over the same period. We find that poverty dynamics measured through poverty cycles differ for alternative poverty rate indicators. Another critical point is the magnitude of change in the poverty cycles. Prolonged and more volatile poverty cycles have a significant adverse impact on people and families facing them. That is particularly important for policymakers who should rethink poverty policy guidelines aimed at helping people with more volatile poverty cycles first. Our is the first study, to our knowledge, to isolate poverty cycles and focus on their nature. Poverty cycles should attract more attention from policymakers since they more accurately assess nations’ economic well-being than output (GDP).

scholarly journals Did We Lose the War on Poverty?

1998 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dale W Jorgenson
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Well Being ◽  
War On Poverty ◽  
Support Programs ◽  
Accurate Assessment ◽  
Income Support ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Economic Well Being

Official U.S. poverty statistics based on household income imply that the proportion of the U.S. population below the poverty level reached a minimum in 1973, giving rise to the widespread impression that the elimination of poverty is impossible. By contrast, poverty estimates based on household consumption have fallen through 1989 and imply that the war on poverty was a success. This paper recommends replacing income by consumption in official estimates of poverty in order to obtain a more accurate assessment of the impact of income support programs and economic growth on the level and distribution of economic well-being among households.

scholarly journals The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Turchin ◽  
Andrey Korotayev
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
The United States ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Retrospective Assessment ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Usa

This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010–2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe (Turchin 2010). This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Index, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. (2017) conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom and obtained similar results. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010–2020 decade in all of these countries.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Industri Sedang dan Besar Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Kabupaten Gresik Tahun 2002-2016

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-31
Author(s):  
Rohmatul Janah ◽  
Ida Nuraini
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Poverty Levels

This research is aimed at studying the influence of medium and large industries on poverty levels in Gresik on 2002-2016. The variables used in this study is medium and large industries, a labour of medium and large industries, gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of industrial sector and poverty rate. The method used in this study used multiple linear regression and used time-series data. The results of this study simultaneously are the variables of the amount of medium and large industries, the labour medium and large industries, and the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of the industrial sector to poverty rate is significant. While medium and large industries to poverty rate have negative and insignificant effect with a coefficient value of -0,208905. The labour of medium and large industries to poverty rate has a positive and significant effect with a coefficient value of 0,130822,  the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of industrial to poverty rate has a negative and significant effect with a coefficient value of -0,169431.

Electric Cooperative Power Consumption Forecasting, Decision Support System and Mapping

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Keyword(s):  
Power Consumption ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Clustering And Classification

Electricity is one of the basic needs and it plays an important role in the community in the social and economic development. It is an essential part of our daily lives as well as electrical energy promotes economic well-being and make social life worthwhile. Most electric cooperative encounters difficulty in monitoring the power consumption in their vicinity due to limited number of field personnel. The researcher observed that there is a need for a study on the prediction ofelectric consumption for Nueva Vizcaya Electric Cooperative (NUVELCO) to establish the trend of future consumption. This study also serve basis in managerial decision making (DSS) such as; advisory to the staff for power line clearing, household inspection, and additional transformer, additional purchased of energy. This paper uses two methods, descriptive research and developmental research to analyzed present data. A Correlation Analysis and Linear Regression Analysis is used between temperature and power consumption, precipitation and electric consumption. This statistical tool is used for prediction for analyzing time series data. The researcher derived power consumption differential equation or models which can be used to determine the growth of the electrical energy consumption. Discriminant Analysis is used in Clustering and classification of a set of observations into subsets in mapping the municipalities of the possible rise and fall of power consumption.

Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan pengangguran terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Sumatera Selatan

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Novegya Ratih Primandari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square

This research aims to analyze effect of economic growth, inflation and Unemployment on the Rate of Poverty in the Province of South Sumatera. This research used secondary data in the form of time series data from 2001-2017. The method used quantitative approach by applying a linear regression model with OLS estimation Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results of this study indicate that partially and simultaneously Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment have a significant effect on the Poverty Rate in the Province of South Sumatera.

Returns and volume

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-473
Author(s):  
Panos Fousekis
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causal Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Usa

Purpose The relationship between returns and trading volume is central in financial economics because it has both a theoretical interest and important practical implications with regard to the structure of financial markets and the level of speculation activity. The aim of this study is to provide new insights into the association between returns and trading volume by investigating their kernel (instantaneous) causality. The empirical analysis relies on time series data from 22 commodities futures markets (agricultural, energy and metals) in the USA. Design/methodology/approach Non-parametric (local linear) regressions are applied to daily data on returns and on trading activity; generalized correlation measures are computed and their differences are subjected to formal statistical testing. Findings The results suggest that raw returns are likely to kernel-cause volume and volume is likely to kernel-cause price volatility. The patterns of causal order are generally in line with what is stipulated by the relevant theory, they provide guidance for model specification and they appear to explain the empirical evidence on temporal (lag-lead) causality between the same pairs of variables obtained in earlier works. Originality/value The concept of kernel causality has very recently become a part of the toolkit for econometric/statistical analysis. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that relies on the notion of kernel (instantaneous) causality to provide new evidence on a relationship that is of keen interest to investors, professional economists and policymakers.

scholarly journals Suicide Research and Adolescent Suicide Trends in New Zealand

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 287-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Shahtahmasebi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Adolescent Suicide ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Medical Model ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Young Person ◽  
Series Data ◽  
International Experts

In recent years, there have been a number of claims and counterclaims from suicide research using time series and longitudinal data; in particular, the linkage of increased antidepressant prescriptions to a decrease in suicide rates. Suicide time series appear to have a memory compounded with seasonal and cyclic effects. Failure to take into account these properties may lead to misleading conclusions, e.g., a downward blip is interpreted as the result of current knowledge and public health policies, while an upward blip is explained as suicide being complex depending on many variables requiring further research. In previous publications, I argued that this misuse of time series data is the result of an uncritical acceptance of a medical model that links mental ill-health to suicide. The consequences of such research behaviour are further increases in antidepressant prescriptions and medications to those who should not be prescribed them, with adverse effects showing across the population, e.g., the prescription of antidepressants to very young children (some under 1 year of age) in New Zealand. Moreover, the New Zealand Evidence-based Health Care Bulletin recommends an authoritarian approach for every interaction with a young person to check their psychosocial well-being. When viewed holistically, this kind of human behaviour makes researchers, policy makers (politicians), treatment, and practitioners, and society in general part of the problem rather than the solution. This paper explores some dynamic aspects of suicide, using only official data with particular reference to youth suicide, and suggests that the medical model of suicide is only an attempt to treat depression without addressing suicide, and recommends the creation of a unified database through understanding the society that individuals live in. It is hoped that this paper will stimulate debate and the collaboration of international experts regardless of their school of thought.

The Determinants Of Personal Saving In The U.S.

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Myeong Hwan Kim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Personal Saving ◽  
External Variables ◽  
Real Estate Loan ◽  
The U.S

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; margin: 0in 36.1pt 0pt 0.5in; mso-pagination: none;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">In this study, a number of internal and external variables that could affect personal saving are examined using regression to show how they are related to personal saving. The empirical study is performed using the time series data of the U.S. between the years 1950 and 2007. The findings reveal that personal saving is highly dependent on personal income, tax, credit outstanding and status of employment, while dependency ratio, current real estate loan, real interest rate and status of economic performance are indeterminate.<em><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"></span></em></span></span></p>

Nuclear Policy and World Order: Why Denuclearization

1978 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 321-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Falk
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
World Order ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Nuclear Technology ◽  
Political Justice ◽  
Nuclear Policy ◽  
Ruling Elites ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Well Being

While taking note of the growing anxiety, particularly on the part of the superpowers, over the spread of nuclear technology and of the frantic campaign (most of all on the part of the USA), through a combination of pressures and blandishments, to halt proliferation, the paper does not see much chance of the campaign succeeding so long as as it remains suspect because, among other reasons, of its being spearheaded by a power which is itself the greatest proliferator and one, too, which has not only got an enormous stockpile of nuclear weapons, but is constantly engaged in evolving ever more sophisticated (which means deadly) weapons. Nonproliferation, unless wedded to denuclearization, will continue to be viewed by non-nuclear states as unacceptably discriminatory and as a geopolitical confidence trick calculated to freeze the present hegemonistic global structure. Obviously, the first moves toward denuclearization have to be made by nuclear nations, but, above all, by the two superpowers. However, denuclearization will be illusory if a distinction is made between the military and the civilian uses of the atom. Denuclearization must, therefore, at some stage-now rather than later, when it might be too late-involve the total renunciation of nuclear power for whatever purpose and its substitution with other less centralized, less costly, and pollution-free sources of energy, such as sun, wind, water and biomass. In between, however, the ruling elites all the world over, but principally in its industrialized part, have to accept a concept of world order securely anchored to the values of peace, economic well-being of all, social and political justice, both within and between nations, and environmental quality. Recognising that such a world order cannot be erected at one go, the author suggests transition steps, none frighteningly radical in itself and each demonstrably feasible, although establishment circles, unable to move out of the narrow groove of conventional wisdom, may scoff at them as ‘romantic’ or ‘utopian’.

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