Fuzzy Crow Search Algorithm-Based Deep LSTM for Bitcoin Prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 53-71
Author(s):  
Chandrasekar Ravi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Flow Strength ◽  
Optimal Weights ◽  
Double Exponential

Prediction of stock market trends is considered as an important task and is of great attention as predicting stock prices successfully may lead to attractive profits by making proper decisions. Stock market prediction is a major challenge owing to non-stationary, blaring, and chaotic data and thus, the prediction becomes challenging among the investors to invest the money for making profits. Initially, the blockchain network is fed to the blockchain network bridge from which the bitcoin data is acquired that is followed with the bitcoin prediction. Bitcoin prediction is performed using the proposed FuzzyCSA-based Deep Long short-term memory (LSTM). At first, the flow strength indicators are extracted based on Double exponential moving average (DEMA), Rate of Change (ROCR), Average True Range (ATR), Simple Moving Average (SMA), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) from the blockchain data. Based on the extracted features, the prediction is done using FuzzyCSA-based Deep LSTM, which is the combination of FuzzyCSA with Deep LSTM. Then, the CSA is modified using the fuzzy operator for determining the optimal weights in Deep LSTM. The experimentation of the proposed method is performed from the openly available dataset. The analysis of the method in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) reveals that the proposed FuzzyCSA-based Deep LSTM acquired a minimal MAE of 0.4811, and the minimal RMSE of 0.3905, respectively.

scholarly journals Comparison of ARIMA, ANN and LSTM for Stock Price Prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 01026
Author(s):  
Qihang Ma
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Research Direction ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Stock Price Prediction

The prediction of stock prices has always been a hot topic of research. However, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model commonly used and artificial neural networks (ANN) still have their own advantages and disadvantages. The use of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks model for prediction also shows interesting possibilities. This article compares three models specifically through the analysis of the principles of the three models and the prediction results. In the end, it is believed that the LSTM model may have the best predictive ability, but it is greatly affected by the data processing. The ANN model performs better than that of the ARIMA model. The combination of time series and external factors may be a worthy research direction.

scholarly journals Predicting Stock Price Trend Using MACD Optimized by Historical Volatility

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Wang ◽  
Junseok Kim
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Price Trend ◽  
Technical Indicators ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
Fixed Weight ◽  
The Stability

With the rapid development of the financial market, many professional traders use technical indicators to analyze the stock market. As one of these technical indicators, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is widely applied by many investors. MACD is a momentum indicator derived from the exponential moving average (EMA) or exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), which reacts more significantly to recent price changes than the simple moving average (SMA). Traders find the analysis of 12- and 26-day EMA very useful and insightful for determining buy-and-sell points. The purpose of this study is to develop an effective method for predicting the stock price trend. Typically, the traditional EMA is calculated using a fixed weight; however, in this study, we use a changing weight based on the historical volatility. We denote the historical volatility index as HVIX and the new MACD as MACD-HVIX. We test the stability of MACD-HVIX and compare it with that of MACD. Furthermore, the validity of the MACD-HVIX index is tested by using the trend recognition accuracy. We compare the accuracy between a MACD histogram and a MACD-HVIX histogram and find that the accuracy of using MACD-HVIX histogram is 55.55% higher than that of the MACD histogram when we use the buy-and-sell strategy. When we use the buy-and-hold strategy for 5 and 10 days, the prediction accuracy of MACD-HVIX is 33.33% and 12% higher than that of the traditional MACD strategy, respectively. We found that the new indicator is more stable. Therefore, the improved stock price forecasting model can predict the trend of stock prices and help investors augment their return in the stock market.

scholarly journals Stock Prediction Using Sentiment Analysis and LSTM

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1752-1756
Author(s):  
Ms. Anjima K. S
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Sentiment Analysis ◽  
Programming Language ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Python Programming Language ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Python Programming

Abstract: The stock market is a difficult area to anticipate since it is influenced by a variety of variables at the same time. The stock exchange is where equities are exchanged, transferred, and circulated. This research proposes a hybrid algorithm that predicts a stock's next day closing prices using sentiment analysis and Long Short Term Memory. The LSTM model seems to be quite popular in time-series forecasting, which is why it was selected for this project. Our proposed methodology makes use of the temporal association between public opinion and stock prices. Part-of-speech tagging is used to do sentiment analysis, and Long Short Term Memory is utilized to predict the stock's next day closing price. When these two factors are combined, we get a good picture of the stock's future. In this project, two main datasets have been used: HCLTECH company stock data and the news related to each stock of the HCL company for each day. The project is implemented by using the python programming language. The python programming language has been used to execute the project. This also incorporates machine learning along with public feedback. Sentiment analysis enables us to evaluate a diversity of political and economic factors, which have a significant impact on the stock market. Keywords: LSTM, sentiment analysis, RNN, Back propagation neural network.

scholarly journals Predicting Stock Market Prices using Fine-Tuned IndRNN

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 309-315
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Activation Function ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Time

Prediction and analysis of stock market data have a vital role in current time’s economy. The various methods used for the prediction can be classified into 1) Linear Algorithms like Moving Average (MA) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). 2) Non-Linear Models like Artificial Neural Networks and Deep Learning. In this work, we are using the results of previous research papers to demonstrate the potential of some models like ARIMA, Multi-Layer Perception (MLP) ), Convolutional Neural Neural Network (CNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) for forecasting the stock price of an organization based on its available historical data. Then, implementing some of these methods to check and compare their efficiency within the same issue. We used Independently RNN (IndRNN) to explore a better efficiency for stock prediction and we found that it gives better accuracy prevailing methods in the current time. We also proposed an enhancement to IndRNN by replacing its default activation function with a more effective function called Parametric Rectified Linear Unit (PreLU). Our proposed approach can be used as an alternative method for predicting time series data efficiently other than the typical approaches today

scholarly journals Peramalan Rate of Return Saham Menggunakan Metode Brown’s Weighted Exponential Moving Average dengan Optimasi Levenberg-Marquardt

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Hasanah Abdullah ◽  
Junaidi ◽  
Lilies Handayani
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Limited Liability ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Closing Price ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
A Company

Stocks can be defined as a sign of the participation of unilateral capital in a company or a limited liability company in the form of proof of a company's assets and it is formed as a valueble proof letters as a statement of participating in capital. Return stockis one of the factors that motivates investors to invest or interact and also a reward for the courage of investors to take risks or investments. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia is one of the largest banks in Indonesia that experiences an increase in stock prices every year. The Brown's Weighted Exponential Moving Average (BWEMA) method which is a combination of the Weighted Exponential Moving Average (WEMA) and Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing (BDES) methods will be used in this study. The data used is the daily data of closing price of the stock (closing price) of PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia on February 6, 2018 until February 6, 2019. MSE and MAPE BWEMA values ​​were obtained at 6124.222 and 1.831685%, while MSE and MAPE WEMA values ​​were 7559.211 and 1.998439% respectively. The results obtained show that the BWEMA method has smaller MSE and MAPE values. This shows that the BWEMA method is better than the WEMA method in terms of forecasting. As a results the BWEMA method is continued to calculate the forecasts rate of return for the next 7 days. The average value returns obtained is 0.111497% stock  which means during the period of the investment, investors get a profit of 0.111497%% per day of the total funds invested in the shares of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.

Creation of Stock Analysis System Depend on the Prediction Research of Individual Stock Price Behavior by Moving Average Method

2012 ◽  
Vol 601 ◽  
pp. 547-553
Author(s):  
Pang Wen Ling
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Average Method ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Market Potential ◽  
General Rules ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Stochastic Data ◽  
Analysis System

The Taiwan stock market has millions of investors. If each investor spends $5,000 NTD each month on a professional technical analysis system and it is conservatively estimated 100,000 investors would use the system, the market potential will be $500 million NTD. If we can seek out irregular general rules of stock price data on stock market and further make predictions to some extent, the return on investment may be effectively raised, and investment loss reduced for the investors. This study will take Taiwan stock market as data source and use Moving Average Method (MA) to conduct study and analysis of stochastic data of stock price. One stocks (TSMC) typical in Taiwan’s industries and with large-cap index weights are studied to explore whether there are any specific changes and regularities in seemingly irregular stock prices.. We should depend on the front research to develop an effective stock trading analysis system, and we can help investors obtain profits. At the same time, the system users can also make more considerable profits.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Infection Forecasting based on Deep Learning in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehdi Azarafza ◽  
Mohammad Azarafza ◽  
Jafar Tanha
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
National Level ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Error Metrics ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Better Than

Since December 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is outbreak from China and infected more than 4,666,000 people and caused thousands of deaths. Unfortunately, the infection numbers and deaths are still increasing rapidly which has put the world on the catastrophic abyss edge. Application of artificial intelligence and spatiotemporal distribution techniques can play a key role to infection forecasting in national and province levels in many countries. As methodology, the presented study employs long short-term memory-based deep for time series forecasting, the confirmed cases in both national and province levels, in Iran. The data were collected from February 19, to March 22, 2020 in provincial level and from February 19, to May 13, 2020 in national level by nationally recognised sources. For justification, we use the recurrent neural network, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, Holt winter's exponential smoothing, and moving averages approaches. Furthermore, the mean absolute error, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error metrics are used as evaluation factors with associate the trend analysis. The results of our experiments show that the LSTM model is performed better than the other methods on the collected COVID-19 dataset in Iran

scholarly journals Harvesting social media sentiment analysis to enhance stock market prediction using deep learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e476
Author(s):  
Pooja Mehta ◽  
Sharnil Pandya ◽  
Ketan Kotecha
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Social Networking ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Public Sentiment ◽  
Area Of Interest

Information gathering has become an integral part of assessing people’s behaviors and actions. The Internet is used as an online learning site for sharing and exchanging ideas. People can actively give their reviews and recommendations for variety of products and services using popular social sites and personal blogs. Social networking sites, including Twitter, Facebook, and Google+, are examples of the sites used to share opinion. The stock market (SM) is an essential area of the economy and plays a significant role in trade and industry development. Predicting SM movements is a well-known and area of interest to researchers. Social networking perfectly reflects the public’s views of current affairs. Financial news stories are thought to have an impact on the return of stock trend prices and many data mining techniques are used address fluctuations in the SM. Machine learning can provide a more accurate and robust approach to handle SM-related predictions. We sought to identify how movements in a company’s stock prices correlate with the expressed opinions (sentiments) of the public about that company. We designed and implemented a stock price prediction accuracy tool considering public sentiment apart from other parameters. The proposed algorithm considers public sentiment, opinions, news and historical stock prices to forecast future stock prices. Our experiments were performed using machine-learning and deep-learning methods including Support Vector Machine, MNB classifier, linear regression, Naïve Bayes and Long Short-Term Memory. Our results validate the success of the proposed methodology.

scholarly journals Indian Stock Markets Data Analysis and Prediction using Macroeconomics Indictors in Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 484-486
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Random Forest Algorithm ◽  
Strength Index ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Trend Prediction ◽  
Unique Role

Machine Learning plays a unique role in the world of stock market when it comes to the trend prediction. Machine learning library MLIB helps in determining the future values of stocks. With the help of this research one can find the ups and downs of stock market by providing a signal for the same and done by analyzing the previous stock data. This study is based on analysis of stock data from 2000 to 2009 which includes top fifty companies of various sectors from all over India. Six stock data indicators known as, Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index(RSI), Stochastic Oscillator, Williams % R, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Rate of Change applied on the nineteen years of stock data then results of these indicators are compiled and finally with the use of machine learning libraries like Numpy, Pandas, Matplotlib, Sklearn a random forest algorithm is applied on the compiled result to predict the stock movement , these libraries which splits the results into two sets training set and testing set which also boost up the result and gives you the better prediction.

scholarly journals Systematic optimization of Long Short-Term Memory model for predicting NYSE Arca Airline Index (XAL) during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Dong ◽  
Amber Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Airline Industry ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Predicting stock prices has been both challenging and controversial. Since it first spread through the United States, the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the stock market in a multitude of ways. Thus, stock price prediction has become even more challenging. Recurrent neural networks (RNN) have been widely used in many fields to predict financial time series. In this study, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a special form of RNN, is used to predict the stock market direction for the US airline industry by using NYSE Arca Airline Index (XAL). The LSTM model was optimized through changing different hyperparameters of the model architecture to find the best combination for increased accuracy and performance evaluated by several metrics, including raw RMSE (3.51) and MAPA (4.6%), and very high MAPA (95.4%) and R^2 (0.978).

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