Normalized Sprint Estimation

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-58
Author(s):  
Shailesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Characteristics ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Functional Requirements ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Project Estimation

Accurate estimation of software projects is quintessential for overall success of the project. Estimation of agile projects adopted in most of the modern software projects is challenging due to lack of historical data and due to dynamic characteristics of the agile projects. In this paper we introduce “Normalized Sprint Estimation” method which factors in dynamic characteristics of the agile projects such as non-functional requirements, sprint success factors and such. The author applied the normalized sprint estimation method to 14 sprints from three digital projects and the predicted estimation values had Pred (0.3), more than 80%. Though the normalized sprint estimation model is tested for digital projects, the same methodology can be applied for software projects from other domains as well.

scholarly journals Research on the prediction of quay crane resource hour based on Ensemble Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaoshen Wang ◽  
Yi Ding
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Learning ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Wait Time ◽  
Container Terminals ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Empirical Estimation ◽  
Preparation Time ◽  
Adaboost Algorithm

In Container terminals, a quay crane's resource hour is affected by various complex nonlinear factors, and it is not easy to make a forecast quickly and accurately. Most ports adopt the empirical estimation method at present, and most of the studies assumed that accurate quay crane’s resource hour could be obtained in advance. Through the ensemble learning (EL) method, the influence factors and correlation of quay crane’s resources hour were analyzed based on a large amount of historical data. A multi-factor ensemble learning estimation model based quay crane’s resource hour was established. Through a numerical example, it is finally found that Adaboost algorithm has the best effect of prediction, with an error of 1.5%. Through the example analysis, it comes to a conclusion: the error is 131.86% estimated by the experience method. It will lead that subsequent shipping cannot be serviced as scheduled, increasing the equipment wait time and preparation time, and generating additional cost and energy consumption. In contrast, the error based Adaboost learning estimation method is 12.72%. So Adaboost has better performance.

scholarly journals Grassland utilization estimation method and system based on environmental sense

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuanjian Wang ◽  
Dong Li ◽  
Tianying Yan ◽  
Qilei Wang ◽  
Ju Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Feed Intake ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Grazing Animal ◽  
3S Technology ◽  
Natural Grassland

Abstract The utilization of natural grassland is an important part of grazing animal husbandry. Effective monitoring and accurate estimation of the utilization of natural grassland is an inevitable requirement for the sustainable development of grazing animal husbandry. In order to estimate the utilization process of natural grassland effectively, this paper proposes a grassland utilization estimation method based on environmental sense. In this paper, the distribution of feed intake was obtained by the GPS track data, and the distribution of grassland biomass was obtained by the satellite remote sensing estimation model of natural grassland. The feed intake and grassland biomass are classified and compared respectively. According to the value of the two, the utilization of grassland in each region was obtained. And this study designed a grassland utilization estimating system based on this estimating method and 3S technology. The results show that this method is of great significance to the rational utilization of grassland and the implementation of rotational grazing. The system can provide decision-making basis for ranchers and grassland livestock management departments to manage grazing and grassland. It enables ranchers to make reasonable and effective grazing plans, so as to make balanced utilization of grassland resources and promote the sustainable development of grazing animal husbandry.

scholarly journals Grassland utilization estimation method and system based on environmental sense

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuanjian Wang ◽  
Dong Li ◽  
Tianying Yan ◽  
Qilei Wang ◽  
Ju Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Feed Intake ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Grazing Animal ◽  
Natural Grassland

Abstract The utilization of natural grassland is an important part of grazing animal husbandry. Effective monitoring and accurate estimation of the utilization of natural grassland are inevitable requirements for the sustainable development of grazing animal husbandry. In order to estimate the utilization process of natural grassland effectively, this paper proposes a grassland utilization estimation method based on environmental sense. In this paper, the distribution of feed intake was obtained by the GPS trajectory data, and the distribution of grassland biomass was obtained by the satellite remote sensing estimation model of natural grassland. The feed intake and grassland biomass are classified and compared respectively. According to the value of the two, the utilization of grassland in each region was obtained. And this study designed a grassland utilization estimating system based on this estimating method and 3S technology. The results show that this method is of great significance to the rational utilization of grassland and the implementation of rotational grazing. The system can provide decision-making basis for ranchers and grassland livestock management departments to manage grazing and grassland. It enables ranchers to make reasonable and effective grazing plans, so as to make balanced utilization of grassland resources and promote the sustainable development of grazing animal husbandry.

DEMANDS ESTIMATION OF NEW TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES IN FUZZY ENVIRONMENT

2003 ◽  
Vol 02 (02) ◽  
pp. 333-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
LONG-SHUH LIN
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Solution Procedure ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Telecommunication Services ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Phone Service ◽  
One Year

With the uncertain influential factors of demands and the lack of required historical data, demand estimation for new telecommunication services have generally relied just on marketing survey and analysis. However, the data collected from marketing survey are usually expressed in human linguistic forms and hence are fuzzy in nature. That means the estimation method derived from traditional sampling theory cannot fully represent such fuzzy data and thus biased consequences caused often. Therefore, in this study, to completely capture the uncertainty of the surveyed data, we adopt a series of analytical methods based on fuzzy set theory to construct a fuzzy estimation model. Based on the proposed model, a solution procedure is developed to aid users to acquire the demands of new telecommunication services. Finally, the solution procedure is employed to estimate demands of mobile phone service within one year in Taiwan with satisfactory results.

scholarly journals Priority based Agile Estimation for Size and Time (PAEST)

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 942-952
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Intensity Level ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Algorithmic Method ◽  
Project Estimation

Agile estimation process is an emerging research area because of agile practice of accepting requirements at any stage. Some agile practitioners are using agile estimation of size and time based on expert opinion and planning poker game. These methods are non-algorithmic method whereas algorithmic method of estimation always useful for novice estimator as it is based on empirical study. In this paper, we have proposed algorithmic method, Priority based Agile Estimation for Size and Time (PAEST) for projects using agile practices. PAEST incorporates the identification of factors estimating size of projects based on its priority and impact on the project. Size and Time estimation are computed as function of priority factor of project attributes and uncertainty in requirements of the projects. Paper also elaborates the case studies of various domain of software projects along with priority and intensity level of factors affecting the project estimation. We have incorporated three domains: web application, MIS project and critical software and seven project attributes out of 21 attributes used by generalized estimation method in our case studies. Number of project attributes can be scalable to any number depending on project domain. Algorithm prioritizes the project attributes and generates the estimates of the project more realistic. Introduction of prioritization helps novice to get estimates more precise. In our study we observed that uncertainty in project have more impact than project attributes.

Estimation of Forest Biomass Energy Resources Based on Bottom-up Approach in China

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 272-275
Author(s):  
Lan Zhang ◽  
Dan Yu ◽  
Caihong Zhang ◽  
Weidong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Biomass Energy ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Theoretical Ground ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Rational Development ◽  
Calculation Results

Currently, the forest biomass energy development is at an initial stage and the estimation method for the forest biomass energy resource reserve is to be unified and refined although there is a great value and potential in the development and utilization of forest biomass energy in China. Based on the existing studies, the present paper analyzes the origins and types of forest biomass energy resources in the perspective of sustainable forestry management, constructs the estimation model using a bottom-up approach, and estimates the total existing forest biomass energy resource reserve in China based on the data of the 7th Forest Resource Survey. The estimation method and the calculation results provide the important theoretical ground for promoting the rational development of forest biomass energy in China.

scholarly journals Operating Rooms efficiency: leveraging data to improve management of elective surgery

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
C Quercioli ◽  
G A Carta ◽  
G Cevenini ◽  
G Messina ◽  
N Nante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Elective Surgery ◽  
District General Hospital ◽  
Operating Rooms ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Surgical Time ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Management Efficiency ◽  
Scheduling Model ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Background Careful scheduling of elective surgery Operating Rooms (ORs) is crucial for their efficient use, to avoid low/over utilization and staff overtime. Accurate estimation of procedures duration is essential to improve ORs scheduling. Therefore analysis of historical data about surgical times is fundamental to ORs management. We analyzed the effect, in a real setting, of an ORs scheduling model based on estimated optimum surgical time in improving ORs efficiency and decreasing the risk of overtime. Methods We studied all the 2014-2019 elective surgery sessions (3,758 sessions, 12,449 interventions) of a district general hospital in Siena's Province, Italy. The hospital had3 ORs open 5 days/week 08:00-14:00. Surgery specialties were general surgery, orthopedics, gynecology and urology. Based on a pilot study conducted in 2016, which estimated a 5 times greater risk of having an OR overtime for sessions with a surgical time (incision-suture)>200 minutes, from 2017 all the ORs were scheduled using a maximum surgical time of 200 minutes calculated summing the mean surgical times for intervention and surgeon (obtained from 2014-2016 data). We carried out multivariate logistic regression to calculate the probability of ORs overtime (of 15 and 30 minutes) for the periods 2014-2016 and 2017-2019adjusting for raw ORs utilization. Results The 2017-2019 risk of an OR overtime of 15 minutes decreased by 25% compared to the 2014-2016 period (OR = 0.75, 95%CI=0.618-0.902, p = 0.003); the risk of a OR overtime of 30 minutes decreased by 33% (OR = 0.67, 95%CI= 0.543-0.831, p < 0.001). Mean raw OR utilization increase from 62% to 66% (p < 0.001). Mean number of interventions per surgery sessions increased from 3.1 to 3.5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions This study has shown that an analysis of historical data and an estimate of the optimal surgical time per surgical session could be helpful to avoid both a low and excessive use of the ORs and therefore to increase the efficiency of the ORs. Key messages An accurate analysis of surgical procedures duration is crucial to optimize operating room utilization. A data-based approach can improve OR management efficiency without extra resources.

scholarly journals Estimation of resistance force at steady-state sinkage for cylindrical wheel-typed lunar/planetary exploration rovers with function of push–pull locomotion

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisuke Fujiwara ◽  
Naoki Tsujikawa ◽  
Tetsuya Oshima ◽  
Kojiro Iizuka
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Planetary Exploration ◽  
Experimental Result ◽  
Resistance Force ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Loose Soil ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Resistance Forces

Abstract Planetary exploration rovers have required a high traveling performance to overcome obstacles such as loose soil and rocks. Push-pull locomotion rovers is a unique scheme, like an inchworm, and it has high traveling performance on loose soil. Push-pull locomotion uses the resistance force by keeping a locked-wheel related to the ground, whereas the conventional rotational traveling uses the shear force from loose soil. The locked-wheel is a key factor for traveling in the push-pull scheme. Understanding the sinking behavior and its resistance force is useful information for estimating the rover’s performance. Previous studies have reported the soil motion under the locked-wheel, the traction, and the traveling behavior of the rover. These studies were, however, limited to the investigation of the resistance force and amount of sinkage for the particular condition depending on the rover. Additionally, the locked-wheel sinks into the soil until it obtains the required force for supporting the other wheels’ motion. How the amount of sinkage and resistance forces are generated at different wheel sizes and mass of an individual wheel has remained unclear, and its estimation method hasn’t existed. This study, therefore, addresses the relationship between the sinkage and its resistance force, and we analyze and consider this relationship via the towing experiment and theoretical consideration. The results revealed that the sinkage reached a steady-state value and depended on the contact area and mass of each wheel, and the maximum resistance force also depends on this sinkage. Additionally, the estimation model did not capture the same trend as the experimental results when the wheel width changed, whereas, the model captured a relatively the same trend as the experimental result when the wheel mass and diameter changed.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment Framework to Avoid Serial Failure for New Technical Solutions Applied to the Construction of a CLT Structure Resilient to Climate

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 247
Author(s):  
Charlotte Svensson Tengberg ◽  
Carl-Eric Hagentoft
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Technical Solution ◽  
Functional Requirements ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Construction Period ◽  
Design Build ◽  
Technical Solutions

Design-build contractors are challenged with the task of minimizing failure risks when introducing new technical solutions or adapting technical solutions to new conditions, e.g., climate change. They seem to have a disproportional trust in suppliers and their reference cases and might not have adequate resources or methodologies for sufficient evaluation. This creates the potential for serial failures to spread in the construction industry. To mitigate this, it was suggested that a predefined risk assessment framework should be introduced with the aim of providing a prequalification and requirements for the use of the technical solution. The objectives of this paper are to develop a comprehensive risk assessment framework and to explore the framework’s potential to adequately support the design-build contractor’s decisions. The framework uses qualitative assessment, relying on expert workshops and quantitative assessments, with a focus on simulation and probabilities. Tollgates are used to communicate risk assessments to the contractor. The framework is applied to a real-life case study of construction with a CLT-structure for a Swedish design-build contractor, where exposure to precipitation during construction is a key issue. In conclusion, the chosen framework was successful in a design-build contractor context, structuring the process and identifying difficulties in achieving the functional requirements concerning moisture. Three success factors were: documentation and communication, expert involvement, and the use of tollgates. Recommendations to the design-build contractor on construction of CLT structure are to keep construction period short and to use full weather protection on site.

scholarly journals Research on a novel data-driven aging estimation method for battery systems in real-world electric vehicles

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 168781402110277
Author(s):  
Yankai Hou ◽  
Zhaosheng Zhang ◽  
Peng Liu ◽  
Chunbao Song ◽  
Zhenpo Wang
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Real World ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Recursive Least Squares ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Battery Degradation ◽  
Operational Data

Accurate estimation of the degree of battery aging is essential to ensure safe operation of electric vehicles. In this paper, using real-world vehicles and their operational data, a battery aging estimation method is proposed based on a dual-polarization equivalent circuit (DPEC) model and multiple data-driven models. The DPEC model and the forgetting factor recursive least-squares method are used to determine the battery system’s ohmic internal resistance, with outliers being filtered using boxplots. Furthermore, eight common data-driven models are used to describe the relationship between battery degradation and the factors influencing this degradation, and these models are analyzed and compared in terms of both estimation accuracy and computational requirements. The results show that the gradient descent tree regression, XGBoost regression, and light GBM regression models are more accurate than the other methods, with root mean square errors of less than 6.9 mΩ. The AdaBoost and random forest regression models are regarded as alternative groups because of their relative instability. The linear regression, support vector machine regression, and k-nearest neighbor regression models are not recommended because of poor accuracy or excessively high computational requirements. This work can serve as a reference for subsequent battery degradation studies based on real-time operational data.

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