scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variability studies of precipitation considering the future climate scenarios, with emphasis on extreme events

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiza Marchezan Bezerra ◽  
Ana Maria Heuminski de Avila ◽  
Vânia Rosa Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) affirms that in future climate scenarios, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events may intensify as a result of changes in the global climate, causing negative impacts on the population and natural ecosystems. Therefore, the impacts caused by these events will require adaptations which, in turn, will be based on future projections carried out through simulations of various global and regional models. Thus, this scientific initiation project had the objective of studying the frequency and spatial variability of extreme rainfall events in the city of Campinas, through simulations carried out using the regional model ETA-HADGEM2-ES and surface meteorological data, considering present and future scenarios.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

European Forest Management Portfolios Optimized for Uncertain Future Climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin Gregor ◽  
Thomas Knoke ◽  
Andreas Krause ◽  
Mats Lindeskog ◽  
Anja Rammig
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Wood Products ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ecosystem Functions ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Wide Range

<p>Forests are considered a major player in climate change mitigation since they influence local and global climate through biogeochemical and biogeophysical feedbacks. However, they are themselves vulnerable to future environmental changes. Thus, forest management needs to focus on both mitigation and adaptation. The special challenge is that decisions on management strategies must be taken today while still a broad range of emission pathways is possible, and a good decision regarding one assumed pathway might turn out to be a bad decision when a different one materializes.</p><p>With our study we try to aid this decision-making process by finding management portfolios that provide relevant ecosystem functions such as local and global climate regulation, water availability, flood protection, and timber production for a wide range of future climate scenarios. To simulate according ecosystem processes and functions, we run the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS for the most relevant forest types across Europe for four different RCPs and five different management options. We analyze our simulation outputs using robust optimization techniques to determine optimal forest management portfolios for each 0.5° grid cell in Europe that ensure a balanced provision of all considered ecosystem functions in the future under any of the four RCPs.</p><p>Generally, our simulations and optimizations show that diversified management portfolios are most suitable to provide the set of considered ecosystem functions in all climate scenarios everywhere in Europe. While the portfolios show different compositions in different regions, they are quite similar in adjacent grid cells. The suggested future forest composition in Europe tends to be fairly close to present day values except for Northern Europe where a much higher proportion of deciduous types is proposed.</p><p>Management as high forest (trees emerging from seeds) remains the most important form of management. The proposed share of coppice management is much higher in Central and Northern Europe (~20%) than in Southern Europe, where its disadvantages (e.g., high water consumption and its non-suitability to provide long-lived wood products) are more pronounced.</p><p>A succession of ~30% of managed forest to natural forest is proposed by the optimization as it provides highest carbon storage and surface roughness values. However, this infeasibly high share is reduced if the provision of wood harvest is valued higher in the optimization compared to the other ecosystem functions.</p><p>Current public focus on forests lies often on their potential for carbon sequestration, but future forest management must also address the other services that they provide. This work gives insights on how this may be done.</p>

Does extreme rainfall lead to heavy losses in the food industry?

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-266
Author(s):  
Edimilson Costa Lucas ◽  
Wesley Mendes-Da-Silva ◽  
Gustavo Silva Araujo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Managing the risks associated to world food production is an important challenge for governments. A range of factors, among them extreme weather events, has threatened food production in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of extreme rainfall events on the food industry in Brazil, a prominent player in this industry. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the AR-GARCH-GPD hybrid methodology to identify whether extreme rainfall affects the stock price of food companies. To do so, the authors collected the daily closing price of the 16 food industry companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange (B3), in January 2015. Findings The results indicate that these events have a significant impact on stock returns: on more than half of the days immediately following the heavy rain that fell between 28 February 2005 and 30 December 2014, returns were significantly low, leading to average daily losses of 1.97 per cent. These results point to the relevance of the need for instruments to hedge against weather risk, particularly in the food industry. Originality/value Given that extreme weather events have been occurring more and more frequently, financial literature has documented attempts at assessing the economic impacts of weather changes. There is little research, however, into assessing the impacts of these events at corporate level.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on Cannonsville Reservoir thermal structure in the New York City water supply

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 389-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. R. Samal ◽  
D. C. Pierson ◽  
E. Schneiderman ◽  
Y. Huang ◽  
J. S. Read ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Stratification ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Structure Stability ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Baseline Conditions

Global Circulation Model values of mean daily air temperature, wind speed and solar radiation for the 2081–2100 period are used to produce change factors that are applied to a 39 year record of local meteorological data to produce future climate scenarios. These climate scenarios are used to drive two separate, but coupled models: the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions-Variable Source Area model in order to simulate reservoir tributary inflows, and a one-dimensional reservoir hydrothermal model used to evaluate changes in reservoir thermal structure in response to changes in meteorological forcing and changes in simulated inflow. Comparisons between simulations based on present-day climate data (baseline conditions) and future simulations (change-factor adjusted baseline conditions) are used to evaluate the development and breakdown of thermal stratification, as well as a number of metrics that describe reservoir thermal structure, stability and mixing. Both epilimnion and hypolimnion water temperatures are projected to increase. Indices of mixing and stability show changes that are consistent with the simulated changes in reservoir thermal structure. Simulations suggest that stratification will begin earlier and the reservoir will exhibit longer and more stable periods of thermal stratification under future climate conditions.

scholarly journals Forecasting the impacts of chemical pollution and climate change interactions on the health of wildlife

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela D. Noyes ◽  
Sean C. Lema
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Chemical Toxicity ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Chemical Exposures

Abstract Global climate change is impacting organisms, biological communities and ecosystems around the world. While most research has focused on characterizing how the climate is changing, including modeling future climatic conditions and predicting the impacts of these conditions on biodiversity, it is also the case that climate change is altering the environmental impacts of chemical pollution. Future climate conditions are expected to influence both the worldwide distribution of chemicals and the toxicological consequences of chemical exposures to organisms. Many of the environmental changes associated with a warming global climate (e.g., increased average – and possibly extreme – temperatures; intense periods of drier and wetter conditions; reduced ocean pH; altered salinity dynamics in estuaries) have the potential to enhance organism susceptibility to chemical toxicity. Additionally, chemical exposures themselves may impair the ability of organisms to cope with the changing environmental conditions of the shifting climate. Such reciprocity in the interactions between climate change and chemicals illustrates the complexity inherent in predicting the toxicological consequences of chemical exposures under future climate scenarios. Here, we summarize what is currently known about the potential reciprocal effects of climate change and chemical toxicity on wildlife, and depict current approaches and ongoing challenges for incorporating climate effects into chemical testing and assessment. Given the rapid pace of new man-made chemistries, the development of accurate and rapid methods to evaluate multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors in an ecologically relevant context will be critical to understanding toxic and endocrine-disrupting effects of chemical pollutants under future climate scenarios.

Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Jing ◽  
Gilles Bélanger ◽  
Budong Qian ◽  
Vern Baron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nutritive Value ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Phleum Pratense ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
The Impact

Jing, Q., Bélanger, G., Qian, B. and Baron, V. 2014. Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada. Can. J. Plant Sci. 94: 213–222. Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is harvested twice annually in Canada but with projected climate change, an additional harvest may be possible. Our objective was to evaluate the impact on timothy dry matter (DM) yield and key nutritive value attributes of shifting from a two- to a three-harvest system under projected future climate conditions at 10 sites across Canada. Future climate scenarios were generated with a stochastic weather generator (AAFC-WG) using two global climate models under the forcing of two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios and, then, used by the CATIMO (Canadian Timothy Model) grass model to simulate DM yield and key nutritive value attributes. Under future climate scenarios (2040–2069), the additional harvest and the resulting three-harvest system are expected to increase annual DM yield (+0.46 to +2.47 Mg DM ha−1) compared with a two-harvest system across Canada but the yield increment will on average be greater in eastern Canada (1.88 Mg DM ha−1) and Agassiz (2.02 Mg DM ha−1) than in the prairie provinces of Canada (0.84 Mg DM ha−1). The DM yield of the first harvest in a three-harvest system is expected to be less than in the two-harvest system, while that of the second harvest would be greater. Decreases in average neutral detergent fibre (NDF) concentration (−19 g kg−1 DM) and digestibility (dNDF, −5 g kg−1 NDF) are also expected with the three-harvest system under future conditions. Our results indicate that timothy will take advantage of projected climate change, through taking a third harvest, thereby increasing annual DM production.

scholarly journals Gastrointestinal, influenza-like illness and dermatological complaints following exposure to floodwater: a cross-sectional survey in The Netherlands

2015 ◽  
Vol 144 (7) ◽  
pp. 1445-1454 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. DE MAN ◽  
L. MUGHINI GRAS ◽  
B. SCHIMMER ◽  
I. H. M. FRIESEMA ◽  
A. M. DE RODA HUSMAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Influenza Like Illness ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
Gp Visits

SUMMARYExtreme rainfall events may cause pluvial flooding, increasing the transmission of several waterborne pathogens. However, the risk of experiencing clinically overt infections following exposure to pluvial floodwater is poorly estimated. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was performed to quantify the occurrence of self-reported gastrointestinal, influenza-like illness (ILI) and dermatological complaints, and the frequency of visits to the general practitioner (GP), during a 4-week observation period following pluvial flooding at seven locations in The Netherlands. Questionnaires were sent to 817 flooded households, 149 (17%) of which returned the questionnaire reporting information for 199 participants. Contact with floodwater was significantly associated with increased occurrence of gastrointestinal [odds ratio (OR 4·44)], ILI (OR 2·75) and dermatological (OR 6·67) complaints, and GP visits (OR 2·72). Having hand contact with floodwater was associated with gastrointestinal and dermatological complaints, whereas ILI complaints were associated with being engaged in post-flooding cleaning operations and having walked/cycled through floodwater. This study shows that floodwater-associated diseases occur in urban settings following extreme rainfall events in a high-income country. As pluvial floods are expected to escalate in the future due to global climate change, further research is warranted to determine the disease burden of pluvial flooding and to assess the effect of different interventions, including raising awareness among stakeholders.

scholarly journals Future scenarios (2011-2040) of temporal and spatial changes in precipitation in the Paraitinga and Paraibuna watersheds, São Paulo, Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Cesar da Silva ◽  
Gilberto Fisch ◽  
Thiago Adriano dos Santos
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Spatial Changes ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Eta Model ◽  
Precipitation Analysis

 The alteration of global climate regimes due to anthropic action and excessive emission of greenhouse gases has been widely researched because it alters the patterns of climatological normals, generating changes in temperatures and precipitation worldwide. This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the Paraitinga and Paraibuna watersheds that together form the Paraibuna Dam, the main one of the Paraiba do Sul river watershed. This dam supplies the São Paulo Metropolitan Region by transporting water to the Cantareira System, the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Region by transporting water to the Guandu watershed, and the Paraiba Valley Metropolitan Region, one of the most industrialized in Brazil. To investigate future precipitation trends, past and future climate simulations were used from the HadCM3/Eta model using the SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) A1B, and precipitation analysis using Quantis techniques to determine extreme rainfall and drought periods. The results point to an increase in precipitation averages in the region, followed by a greater intensity of extreme rainfall, which may lead to a higher occurrence of natural disasters such as landslides.

scholarly journals Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees’ warmer worlds – How anthropogenic aerosols change the story

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruksana H. Rimi ◽  
Karsten Haustein ◽  
Emily J. Barbour ◽  
Sarah N. Sparrow ◽  
Sihan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the frequency of extreme weather events in future. Previous studies have robustly shown how and where climate change has already changed the risks of weather extremes. However, developing countries have been somewhat underrepresented in these studies, despite high vulnerability and limited capacities to adapt. How additional global warming would affect the future risks of extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh needs to be addressed to limit adverse impacts. Our study focuses on understanding and quantifying the relative risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under the Paris Agreement temperature goals of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels. In particular, we investigate the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on these risks given their likely future reduction and resulting amplification of global warming. Using large ensemble regional climate model simulations from weather@home under different forcing scenarios, we compare the risks of rainfall events under pre-industrial (natural), current (actual), 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C warmer and greenhouse gas only (anthropogenic aerosols removed) conditions. We find that the risk of a 1 in 100 year rainfall event has already increased significantly compared with pre-industrial levels across parts of Bangladesh, with additional increases likely for 1.5 and 2.0 degree warming (of up to 5.5 times higher, with an uncertainty range of 3.5 to 7.8 times). Impacts were observed during both the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods, but were spatially variable across the country in terms of the level of impact. Results also show that reduction in anthropogenic aerosols plays an important role in determining the overall future climate change impacts; by exacerbating the effects of GHG induced global warming and thereby increasing the rainfall intensity. We highlight that the net aerosol effect varies from region to region within Bangladesh, which leads to different outcomes of aerosol reduction on extreme rainfall statistics, and must therefore be considered in future risk assessments. Whilst there is a substantial reduction in the impacts resulting from 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C warming, the difference is spatially and temporally variable, specifically with respect to seasonal extreme rainfall events.

scholarly journals Analysis of predicted and observed accumulated convective precipitation in the area with frequent split storms

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 3651-3658 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ćurić ◽  
D. Janc
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Model ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model

Abstract. Convective clouds generate extreme rainfall events and flash floods in small areas with both large spatial and temporal variability. For this reason, the monitoring of the total accumulated precipitation fields at the surface with rain gauges and meteorological radars has both strengths and weakness. Alternatively, a numerical cloud model may be a useful tool to simulate convective precipitation for various analyses and predictions. The main objective of this paper is to show that the cloud-resolving model reproduces well the accumulated convective precipitation obtained from the rain gauge network data in the area with frequent split storms. We perform comparisons between observations and model samples of the areal accumulated convective precipitation for a 15-year period over treated area. Twenty-seven convective events have been selected. Statistical analyses reveal that the model areal accumulated convective precipitation closely match their observed values with a correlation coefficient of 0.80.

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