Prevalence and cross states comparison of case fatality rate and recovery rate of COVID 19/SARS-COV-2 in India

COVID-19 is a emerging disease and is of public health importance.This study was done to analyse the trends of corona pandemic over a period of one year in Himalayan region in India. Data regarding state statistics from January 2020 to January 2021,was gathered from various sources. Since objective and authentic data was released by different agencies daily and reported to WHO, so the state prole of new cases, cumulative cases, recoveries, cumulative deaths, samples tested, positive samples was taken based on availability of information from National Health Mission site, other state websites and news papers and analysed for various parameters. The current study conducted in Himachal Pradesh showed Case fatality rate as 1.7%, recovery rate 99% and positivity rate 6.1% with Shimla having highest CFR 2.5%. Population wise most affected district was Lahul & Spiti with affected population 4.0%.It may be considered as a severe public health threat of this decade. COVID-19 trends, pattern and its analysis will be very important for control and preventive measures.

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Burden of COVID-19 pandemic in India: Perspectives from Health Infrastructure

10.1101/2020.05.26.20113456 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Harihar Sahoo ◽

Chaitali Mandal ◽

Suyash Mishra ◽

Snigdha Banerjee

Keyword(s):

High Throughput ◽

Recovery Rate ◽

Tamil Nadu ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Testing Machine ◽

Case Fatality ◽

List Type ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Health Infrastructure ◽

Positive Rate

AbstractThe coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading rapidly across the country but India’s testing regime is far from the global standards. It is important to identify the states where testing needs expansion and the magnitudes of active COVID cases are higher focusing on current health infrastructure to meet the pandemic. The data on COVID-19 was extracted from the Application Programming Interface. Test positive rate, test per confirmed case, recovery rate, case fatality rate, and percent distribution of active cases were computed. Availability of hospitals, hospital beds, intensive care unit and ventilators per lakh population was also computed by public and private sector. The result revealed that, Maharashtra constitutes more than one-third positive cases in the country. More than a quarter of the active cases in India belonged to the Mumbai district of Maharashtra, followed by the Chennai district (9.4%) and Ahmedabad district (9.1%). Further, about 40 percent of the active cases in India belonged to the 11 districts of Maharashtra. The increased test positive rate in Maharashtra and Gujarat to almost double in last one month is a concern. In order to bring the states and the country in right track, the test positive rate need to be brought down to below 2 percent. The procurement of higher number of high throughput machine, the Cobas 6800 testing machine, is need of the hour. Only few states have adequate health infrastructure. The priority should be the laid on expansion of more laboratories and hospitals, storage of PPE kit, testing kit, and indigenously developed vaccines.HighlightsMaharashtra is having the highest number of positive cases followed by Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Maharashtra constitutes more than one-third positive cases in the country, but the test per confirmed cases (8) is much lower than the other states.More than a quarter of the active cases in India belonged to the Mumbai district (26.1%) of Maharashtra, followed by the Chennai district (9.4%) and Ahmedabad district (9.1%). Further, about 40 percent of the active cases in India belonged to the 11 districts of Maharashtra.The test positive rate is higher in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi is a concern.The recovery rate in India increased substantially by 26.5 percent point from 11.9 percent on April 14 to 38.4 percent on May 17, 2020.The case fatality rate of Covid-19 in India declined by 0.2 percent from 3.4 percent on April 14 to 3.2 percent on May 17 in India.The number of Dedicated Covid Hospitals is not sufficient in India.The available ventilators in the country will deficit in near future to cater to a growing number of active Covid-19 patients and the burden of other communicable and non-communicable diseases.India has only 569 testing laboratories (396 govt. and 173 private) against its 1.35 billion population. The procurement of higher number of high throughput machine, the Cobas 6800 testing machine, is need of the hour.

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Assessment of Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19 Pandemic Related to Social and Economic Factors Globally

10.20944/preprints202006.0346.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mohammad Mahmudul Hassan ◽

Abul Kalam ◽

Shahanaj Shano ◽

Md. Raihan Khan Nayem ◽

Md. Kaisar Rahman ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Recovery Rate ◽

Attack Rate ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Economic Factors ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Middle Income ◽

Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Middle Income Countries

The COVID-19 outbreak has severely affected the social and economic conditions across this globe. Little is known about the relationship of COVID-19 with countries’ economic and socio-demographic status. Publicly available data on COVID-19 test rate, attack rate, case fatality rate, and recovery rate were analyzed in relation to country’s economic status, population density, median age, and urban population ratio. We also conducted multinomial logistic regression analysis to predict the influence of countries’ social and economic factors on COVID-19. The results revealed that the median age had significant positive correlation with attack rate (r=0.2389, p=0.003), case fatality rate (r=0.3207, p=0.000) and recovery rate (r=0.4847, p=0.000). The urbanization has positive significant correlation with recovery rate (r=0.1957, p= 0.016). The multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed low-income countries are less likely to have an increased recovery rate (p=0.000) and attack rate (p=0.016) compare to high-income countries. The lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries are less likely to have an increased recovery rate (p=0.000 and p=0.001, respectively) compared to high-income countries. Based on the result of this study, these economic and socio-demographic factors should consider in designing appropriate preventive measures as a next step. The low and lower-middle-income countries should invest more in health care services to lower the case fatality rate and increase test and recovery rates as part of pandemic preparation like COVID-19. As the number of COVID-19 attacks, death and recovery rates are constantly changing; however, the intensive study is required to obtain a clear picture.

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Epidemic Trend and Effect of COVID-19 Transmission in India during Lockdown Phase

Journal of Pharmaceutical Research International ◽

10.9734/jpri/2020/v32i3931027 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 78-86

Author(s):

Ranjit Prasad Swain ◽

Pratap Kumar Sahu

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

State Government ◽

Recovery Rate ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Present Situation ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

And Control ◽

Control Initiative

To evaluate the present situation concerning the epidemic trend associated with the COVID-19 in Indian demography, the dynamics of the case rise has been analyzed from the perspective of the different index. The index for the analysis has been chosen in terms of the Case Recovery Rate (CRR), CASE Fatality Rate (CFR), as well as Mortality rate (MR). The study includes the rise of the case related to the pandemic in the different demographic regions of India as well as deep analysis and calculation of the indexes considered for the study. The analysis of the rising cases has also been investigated to relax the imposed rule so that economy of the country will not get affected adversely. Several preventive and control initiative has been taken by the central and state government in collaboration. The result of this paper can be taken as an input to decide further policy in the fight against the COVID- 19.

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A Study on the Global Scenario of COVID-19 Related Case Fatality Rate, Recovery Rate and Prevalence Rate and Its Implications for India—A Record Based Retrospective Cohort Study

Advances in Infectious Diseases ◽

10.4236/aid.2020.103023 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (03) ◽

pp. 233-248

Author(s):

Vinod K. Ramani ◽

R. Shinduja ◽

K. P. Suresh ◽

Radheshyam Naik

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Retrospective Cohort Study ◽

Prevalence Rate ◽

Recovery Rate ◽

Retrospective Cohort ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Related Case

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Assessment of Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19 Pandemic Related to Social and Economic Factors Globally

Journal of Risk and Financial Management ◽

10.3390/jrfm13090194 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 194

Author(s):

Mohammad Mahmudul Hassan ◽

Md. Abul Kalam ◽

Shahanaj Shano ◽

Md. Raihan Khan Nayem ◽

Md. Kaisar Rahman ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Population Density ◽

Recovery Rate ◽

Attack Rate ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic has manifested more than a health crisis and has severely impacted on social, economic, and development crises in the world. The relationship of COVID-19 with countries’ economic and other demographic statuses is an important criterion with which to assess the impact of this current outbreak. Based on available data from the online platform, we tested the hypotheses of a country’s economic status, population density, the median age of the population, and urbanization pattern influence on the test, attack, case fatality, and recovery rates of COVID-19. We performed correlation and multivariate multinomial regression analysis with relative risk ratio (RRR) to test the hypotheses. The correlation analysis showed that population density and test rate had a significantly negative association (r = −0.2384, p = 0.00). In contrast, the median age had a significant positive correlation with recovery rate (r = 0.4654, p = 0.00) and case fatality rate (r = 0.2847, p = 0.00). The urban population rate had a positive significant correlation with recovery rate (r = 0.1610, p = 0.04). Lower-middle-income countries had a negative significant correlation with case fatality rate (r= −0.3310, p = 0.04). The multivariate multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed that low-income countries are more likely to have an increased risk of case fatality rate (RRR = 0.986, 95% Confidence Interval; CI = 0.97−1.00, p < 0.05) and recovery rate (RRR = 0.967, 95% CI = 0.95–0.98, p = 0.00). The lower-income countries are more likely to have a higher risk in case of attack rate (RRR = 0.981, 95% CI = 0.97–0.99, p = 0.00) and recovery rate (RRR = 0.971, 95% CI = 0.96–0.98, p = 0.00). Similarly, upper middle-income countries are more likely to have higher risk in case of attack rate (RRR = 0.988, 95% CI = 0.98–1.0, p = 0.01) and recovery rate (RRR = 0.978, 95% CI = 0.97–0.99, p = 0.00). The low- and lower-middle-income countries should invest more in health care services and implement adequate COVID-19 preventive measures to reduce the risk burden. We recommend a participatory, whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach for responding to the socio-economic challenges of COVID-19 and ensuring more resilient and robust health systems to safeguard against preventable deaths and poverty by improving public health outcomes.

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Global, Regional and National Incidence and Case-fatality rates of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) across 154 countries and territories: A systematic assessment of cases reported from January to March 16, 2020

10.1101/2020.03.26.20044743 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula ◽

Jamal Rahmani ◽

Wafa Ali Aldhaleei ◽

Pavan Kumar ◽

Alessandro Rovetta

Keyword(s):

Incidence Rate ◽

Recovery Rate ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

The United States ◽

Systems Science ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Systematic Assessment ◽

Cumulative Change ◽

Novel Coronavirus

AbstractBackgroundThe 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak turned into a pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of cases reported globally. The number of cases dramatically increased beginning in early March 2020.AimWe assessed the cumulative change in the incidence and case-fatality rates of COVID-19 at the global, regional, and national levels from January to March 16, 2020, in 154 affected countries and territories globally.MethodsWe collected data of COVID-19 cases using the GitHub repository, which provided real-time surveillance information developed by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), Johns Hopkins University (USA). Information such as confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries reported across all affected countries was collected from January 22 to March 16, 2020. We estimated the change in the incidence rate, case-fatality rate, and recovery rate from January 22 to February 29 and from March 1 to March 16, 2020.ResultsFrom January 22 to March 16, 2020, globally, the number of incident COVID-19 cases increased by 276.2%, and Europe recorded 65,281 new cases from March 1 to 16, 2020. Overall, the case-fatality rate was 3.92%, with a high COVID-19 fatality rate in Italy (7.7%), Iran (5.7%), China (4.2%) and the United Kingdom (3.6%). The estimated percentage change in COVID-19 cases from March 1 to 16, 2020, was highest in Belgium (105.8/100,000 population), followed by Qatar (439/100,000 population) and Portugal (331/100,000 population). The overall recovery rate of COVID-19 was 43%; China (35.5%) had the highest recovery rate, while the United States of America recorded a recovery rate of 0.3%.ConclusionOverall, all the COVID-19-affected countries showed an upward trend in incidence, with little change in the incidence rate of -0.20% from January to Mid-March. The case-fatality rate was found to be 3.92%, and the recovery rate was observed to be less than half (43%) among COVID-19 patients. Italy, Iran, and Spain had the largest numbers of new cases of COVID-19 from March 1 to 16, 2020.

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Preliminary Estimate of COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in the Philippines using Linear Regression Analysis

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3569248 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Michael Arieh Medina

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Case Fatality ◽

The Philippines ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Preliminary Estimate

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Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.20886 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ahmed Youssef Kada

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Doubling Time ◽

Case Fatality ◽

World Health ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Therapeutic Protocol ◽

First Case ◽

The World ◽

The Impact ◽

At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

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