scholarly journals Strategic stability at 30+ years: stasis, evolution, or degradation?

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 123-138
Author(s):  
D. V. Stefanovich
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
International Security ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Academic Community ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Nuclear War ◽  
Strategic Stability ◽  
Political Relations

“Strategic stability” as a characteristic of military and political relations with a low possibility of large-scale armed confl ict between great powers remains one of the basic notions of international security, especially in its nuclear missile dimension. At the same time, this notion also sets forth tangible state of strategic forces of two (or potentially more) nations and the framework of risk reduction and arms control measures preventing a nuclear war. The purpose of this study is to identify the main trends in this area and how strategic stability can be maintained and enhanced. To this end, I review the main offi cial doctrinal documents and statements in this area, international arms control treaties, trends in the development of the armed forces, and academic and expert publications. It is concluded that strategic stability can be preserved under increasing infl uence of a growing number of new factors, both political (including degradation of arms control regimes) and technological. Among the latter are modernization and development of means for delivery of nuclear warheads, growth of long-range precision-guided non-nuclear weapons potential, increase of antagonism in new environments. The experts point out the need for active work of the academic community and diplomats to fi nd new solutions ensuring maintenance of strategic stability in the future. Negative scenarios are outlined in the absence of such solutions.

scholarly journals Nuclear Deterrence: A Guarantee for or Threat to Strategic Stability?

2020 ◽  
pp. 65-86
Author(s):  
Alexey Arbatov
Keyword(s):  
International Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Nuclear Deterrence ◽  
Nuclear War ◽  
The Public ◽  
Cyber Threats ◽  
Strategic Stability ◽  
Public Consciousness

AbstractIn recent literature, much attention has been paid to factors that affect nuclear deterrence and stability from the outside: new missile defence systems, non-nuclear (conventional) high-precision long-range weapons, the influence of third and threshold nuclear states, space weapons, and—more recently—cyber threats. These new factors have pushed the core of nuclear deterrence—strategic relations between Russia and the United States—to the background in the public consciousness. Yet dangerous changes are taking place. This chapter examines the real and imaginary causes of the current situation and suggests potential ways to reduce tensions that could benefit international security. It concludes that nuclear deterrence can serve as a pillar of international security with one crucial reservation: namely, that it can only work in conjunction with negotiations and agreements on the limitation, reduction, and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Without such checks, nuclear deterrence goes berserk. It endlessly fuels the arms race, brings the great powers to the brink of nuclear war in any serious crisis, and sometimes the very dynamics of nuclear deterrence can instigate a confrontation.

scholarly journals Russia's Nuclear Weapons in a Multipolar World: Guarantors of Sovereignty, Great Power Status & More

Daedalus ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 149 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-55
Author(s):  
Anya Loukianova Fink ◽  
Olga Oliker
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
International Security ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Great Power ◽  
Missile Defense ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Strategic Stability

At a time of technological and political change in the international security environment, Russia continues to view nuclear weapons as guarantors of peace and security among great powers. Nuclear weapons also assure Russia's own great-power status and mitigate uncertainty in an emerging multipolar order. In a world where the United States pursues improved missile defense capabilities and appears to reject mutual vulnerability as a stabilizing factor, Moscow views its modernized nuclear arsenal as essential to deter Washington from a possible attack on Russia or coercive threats against it. Some elites in Russia would like to preserve existing arms control arrangements or negotiate new ones to mitigate a weakening infrastructure of strategic stability. At the same time, however, they seem skeptical that the United States is willing to compromise or deal with Russia as an equal. Meanwhile, multilateral arms control appears to be too complex a proposition for the time being.

scholarly journals Problems and Dilemmas of the Next Start Treaty

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 5-20
Author(s):  
A. Arbatov
Keyword(s):  
Arms Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Nuclear War ◽  
Strategic Stability ◽  
Highly Active ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Military ◽  
Two Sides

Received 28.02.2021. In the end of January 2021, the New START Treaty was extended by five years by the United States and Russia. Thus, the two nuclear superpowers have time to work on the follow-on treaty not in a strategic vacuum, but relying on the valid treaty and its system of transparency and predictability. The promoters of abolishing negotiations on arms limitation and their substitution by amorphous multilateral discussions of “a general philosophy of strategic stability”, who have been highly active during recent years, have temporarily shied away, but probably not for long. The predictable difficulties of the forthcoming negotiations would be interpreted as the evidence of their impending doom, and this may turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy and once again deadlock the dialogue. During the previous decades, the development of the military technologies and new strategic concepts have changed strategic relationship of the parties. This was happening against the background of deteriorating political relations, a long pause of arms control negotiations and abrogation of a number of crucial disarmament treaties. Now the two sides have to catch up. Already it is possible to foresee the main differences of their positions. Washington is emphasizing deep reduction of the nuclear arms of the two superpowers – both strategic and tactical. Moscow has advanced a concept of “security equation”, which implies limitation of offensive and defensive arms – both nuclear and nonnuclear. There will be a great demand for strong political will and wisdom of the leaders of the two nations and of hard work and professionalism of civilian and military experts – in order to restore arms control, which has historically proved its effectiveness as a barrier in preventing nuclear war and as a stabilizer of turbulent world politics.

Correlation between Disarmament and Non-Proliferation

2010 ◽  
pp. 14-25
Author(s):  
A. Arbatov
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Nuclear War ◽  
Safety Assurance ◽  
Political Relations

The article is devoted to the problem of nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear weapons reduction negotiations. Evaluation is made, to what extent nuclear states have performed their obligations under the first part of the Art.VI, the Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The author analyzes the influence of the Great Powers' policy aimed at nuclear arsenals curtailing and reduction of the nuclear weapons' role in national and international safety assurance, as well as at carrying of nuclear war concepts and plans far off stage in international military and political relations, at enhancement of the worldwide "taboo" against any use of nuclear weapons directly or as a threat, at lowering the popularity of nuclear weapons in inside politics of many countries.

scholarly journals US WITHDRAWAL FROM THE OPEN SKIES TREATY: CONSEQUENCES FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND STABILITY

2021 ◽  
pp. 73-88
Author(s):  
I. V. Maksymenko ◽  
V. V. Matuyzo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Security ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The United States ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
Constructive Dialogue ◽  
International Stability ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The U.S

The arms control regime consists of several documents, and the United States of America and the Russian Federation as the State-Parties ensured the implementation and effectiveness of them mostly. However, the growing conflict between these States due to Russia's numerous violations of international law and obligations under international agreements has also harmed arms control. The withdrawal of both states from strategically important documents, which were tools for maintaining transparency and mutual control, is a result of the decline in trust and the lack of a constructive dialogue between Washington and Moscow. The Open Skies Treaty is one of these documents. The article examines the United States' reasons for the withdrawal from the Treaty and reveals the consequences of such a decision by the administration of President Trump. It is noted that the agreement, the idea of ​​which belonged to the United States, was signed immediately after the end of the Cold War and was to help build trust and openness in the new environment. It is noted that the Treaty ensures international stability through the ability of each party to openly collect information on the armed forces, activities, and operations of another party through coordinated flights of reconnaissance aircraft over the territory of the member states. However, problems are gradually accumulating due to Russia's actions to restrict flight zones in violation of the provisions of the Open Sky Treaty, which has become especially acute since 2014. That made the United States think about the meaning of participating in an agreement where one of the parties violates its provisions. The authors outline the consequences of the U.S. decision to leave the agreement; in particular, the focus is on the reactions of the U.S. European partners and Ukraine. They also examined applications and countermeasures by Russia that has also announced its withdrawal from the agreement. Reflecting on the prospects for international security and arms control, the preconditions for the potential return of the United States and Russia to the Open Sky Treaty are outlined.

scholarly journals Developing Russia–NATO relations: problemsof arms control and limitations on destabilizing military activities of the Alliance

2016 ◽  
pp. 62-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
International Security ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
Member States ◽  
Direct Participation ◽  
Critical Aspects

The article is devoted to some critical aspects of correspondence of the Alliance status to the basic norms of international law. It also centers on specific actual steps of the realization of the NATO long-term strategy of «openness» in interrelations with the existing universal and regional institutionalized regimes of limitations in the sphere of international security and arms control. Special attention is paid to the NATO strategy of abstention from the direct participation in critical processes of negotiations in the sphere of arms control and limitations on destabilizing military activities. The NATO, as an organization of permanent nature, stands for the position of non-responsibility for the compliance of obligations in this sphere by its member-states. Decomposition of these artificial obstacles is an unavoidable condition for the NATO responsible inclusions in processes of arms control and reduction of large-scale military activities within the OCSE competence.

scholarly journals Solving the AI Race: Addressing the potential pitfalls of competition towards Artificial General Intelligence

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
Total Loss ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
General Intelligence ◽  
Loss Of Control ◽  
Human Control ◽  
Strategic Stability ◽  
Strategic Balance

AGI could arise within the next decades, promising a decisive strategic advantage. This paper discusses risks, associated with the development of AGI: destabilizing effects on strategic balance, underestimating risks in the interest of victory in the race, egoistically exploiting the huge benefits by a tiny minority. Further: Developed AGI could be beyond human control. Human goals could not be implemented and an intelligence explosion to superintelligence could take place leading to a total loss of control and power. If competition for AGI is non-transparent, secret, uncontrolled and not regulated, it’s possible that risks could not be managed and would lead to catastrophic consequences. The danger corresponds to that of nuclear weapons. It is crucial that the key actors of a possible AI Race agree at an early stage on the prevention and transparent regulation of a possible AI Race - similar to measures to secure strategic stability, on arms control measures, disarmament, and prevention of the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The realization that an uncontrolled AI race can lead to the extinction of humanity - this time even independent of human will – requires analogous measures to contain, prevent, regulate and secure an AI race within the framework of AGI development.

Assessment of quality of life in patients with the effects of transient ischemic stroke

2016 ◽  
pp. 37-39
Author(s):  
A. Babirad
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Sociological Research ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Sf 36 ◽  
Angioplasty And Stenting

Cerebrovascular diseases are a problem of the world today, and according to the forecast, the problem of the near future arises. The main risk factors for the development of ischemic disorders of the cerebral circulation include oblique and aging, arterial hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus and heart disease. An effective strategy for the prevention of cerebrovascular events is based on the implementation of large-scale risk control measures, including the use of antiagregant and anticoagulant therapy, invasive interventions such as atheromectomy, angioplasty and stenting. In this connection, the efforts of neurologists, cardiologists, angiosurgery, endocrinologists and other specialists are the basis for achieving an acceptable clinical outcome. A review of the SF-36 method for assessing the quality of life in patients with the effects of transient ischemic stroke is presented. The assessment of quality of life is recognized in world medical practice and research, an indicator that is also used to assess the quality of the health system and in general sociological research.

Maximum Security

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1-2020) ◽  
pp. 71-84
Author(s):  
Margo Okazawa-Rey ◽  
Gwyn Kirk
Keyword(s):  
Working Class ◽  
Air Force ◽  
International Security ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Prison System ◽  
Correctional Facilities ◽  
Latina Women ◽  
Physical Force ◽  
Maximum Security ◽  
Class Youth

Okazawa-Rey and Kirk argue that the term maximum security, used in the context of the prison system, is an oxymoron. Jails, prisons, and other ‘correctional’ facilities provide no real security for communities, guards and other prison officials, or inmates. Imprisoning two million people, building more prisons, identifying poor and working-class youth of colour as ‘gang members,’ and criminalizing poor Black and Latina women does not increase security. Rather, the idea of security must be redefined in sharp contrast to everyday notions of personal security that are based on the protection of material possessions by locks and physical force, as well as prevailing definitions of national and international security based on a militarization that includes the police, border patrols, and armed forces such as the Navy, Army, Marines, and Air Force. To achieve genuine security, we must address the major sources of insecurity: economic, social, and political inequalities among and within nations and communities. The continual objectification of ‘others’ is a central mechanism underlying systems of oppression—and insecurity—based on class, race, gender, nation, and other significant lines of difference.

THE SOME QUESTIONS OF AUTONOMOUS MOTION AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND-MOBILE ROBOTIC COMPLEXES FOR UKRAINIAN GROUND FORCESE

2019 ◽  
pp. 53-58
Author(s):  
О. Кravchuk ◽  
V. Symonenkov ◽  
I. Symonenkova ◽  
O. Hryhorev
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Distributed Information ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Highly Effective ◽  
Information Management Systems ◽  
Robotic Devices ◽  
Principles And Standards ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Eu

Today, more than forty countries of the world are engaged in the development of military-purpose robots. A number of unique mobile robots with a wide range of capabilities are already being used by combat and intelligence units of the Armed forces of the developed world countries to conduct battlefield intelligence and support tactical groups. At present, the issue of using the latest information technology in the field of military robotics is thoroughly investigated, and the creation of highly effective information management systems in the land-mobile robotic complexes has acquired a new phase associated with the use of distributed information and sensory systems and consists in the transition from application of separate sensors and devices to the construction of modular information subsystems, which provide the availability of various data sources and complex methods of information processing. The purpose of the article is to investigate the ways to increase the autonomy of the land-mobile robotic complexes using in a non-deterministic conditions of modern combat. Relevance of researches is connected with the necessity of creation of highly effective information and control systems in the perspective robotic means for the needs of Land Forces of Ukraine. The development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine management system based on the criteria adopted by the EU and NATO member states is one of the main directions of increasing the effectiveness of the use of forces (forces), which involves achieving the principles and standards necessary for Ukraine to become a member of the EU and NATO. The inherent features of achieving these criteria will be the transition to a reduction of tasks of the combined-arms units and the large-scale use of high-precision weapons and land remote-controlled robotic devices. According to the views of the leading specialists in the field of robotics, the automation of information subsystems and components of the land-mobile robotic complexes can increase safety, reliability, error-tolerance and the effectiveness of the use of robotic means by standardizing the necessary actions with minimal human intervention, that is, a significant increase in the autonomy of the land-mobile robotic complexes for the needs of Land Forces of Ukraine.

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