scholarly journals Risk Identification and Prediction for COVID-19 Mortality

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qin Shao ◽  
Hanh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Daily Mortality ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Surveillance ◽  
Outcome Severity ◽  
System Data ◽  
The Difference

This paper studies several key metrics for COVID-19 using a public surveillance system data set. It compares the difference between two case fatality rates: the naive case fatality rate, which has been frequently mentioned in media outlets, and one which is the sample estimate for the mortality rate. A logistic regression model is applied to modeling the daily mortality rate. The conclusion is that time, gender, age and some of their interactions, appear to have a significant impact on the mortality rate; the daily mortality rate has been decreasing since the outbreak; males older than 60 has been the most vulnerable group. The receiver operating characteristics curve and the curve under the area show that the proposed logistic model is capable of predicting the outcome of a reported case with accuracy as high as 89%. These findings are helpful in assessing the magnitude of the risk posed by the COVID-19 virus to certain groups, predicting outcome severity, and optimally allocating medical resources such as intensive care units and ventilators.

Difference Fourier Analysis of Glucose Embedded and Frozen Hydrated Purple Membrane

1982 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 74-75
Author(s):  
Jules S. Jaffe ◽  
Robert M. Glaeser
Keyword(s):  
Purple Membrane ◽  
Data Set ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
X Ray ◽  
X Ray Crystallography ◽  
Fourier Techniques ◽  
Versus Protein ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Difference Fourier ◽  
Ideal Method

Although difference Fourier techniques are standard in X-ray crystallography it has only been very recently that electron crystallographers have been able to take advantage of this method. We have combined a high resolution data set for frozen glucose embedded Purple Membrane (PM) with a data set collected from PM prepared in the frozen hydrated state in order to visualize any differences in structure due to the different methods of preparation. The increased contrast between protein-ice versus protein-glucose may prove to be an advantage of the frozen hydrated technique for visualizing those parts of bacteriorhodopsin that are embedded in glucose. In addition, surface groups of the protein may be disordered in glucose and ordered in the frozen state. The sensitivity of the difference Fourier technique to small changes in structure provides an ideal method for testing this hypothesis.

Territorial Distribution of Alcohol and Drug Addictions Mortality Concerning Regional Disparities in the Slovak Republic from Year 1996 to Year 2015

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Regional Disparities ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Extreme Position ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level

BACKGROUND: This paper deals with territorial distribution of the alcohol and drug addictions mortality at a level of the districts of the Slovak Republic. AIM: The aim of the paper is to explore the relations within the administrative territorial division of the Slovak Republic, that is, between the individual districts and hence, to reveal possibly hidden relation in alcohol and drug mortality. METHODS: The analysis is divided and executed into the two fragments – one belongs to the female sex, the other one belongs to the male sex. The standardised mortality rate is computed according to a sequence of the mathematical relations. The Euclidean distance is employed to compute the similarity within each pair of a whole data set. The cluster analysis examines is performed. The clusters are created by means of the mutual distances of the districts. The data is collected from the database of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic for all the districts of the Slovak Republic. The covered time span begins in the year 1996 and ends in the year 2015. RESULTS: The most substantial point is that the Slovak Republic possesses the regional disparities in a field of mortality expressed by the standardised mortality rate computed particularly for the diagnoses assigned to the alcohol and drug addictions at a considerably high level. However, the female sex and the male sex have the different outcome. The Bratislava III District keeps absolutely the most extreme position. It forms an own cluster for the both sexes too. The Topoľčany District bears a similar extreme position from a point of view of the male sex. All the Bratislava districts keep their mutual notable dissimilarity. Contrariwise, evaluation of a development of the regional disparities among the districts looks like notably heterogeneously. CONCLUSIONS: There are considerable regional discrepancies throughout the districts of the Slovak Republic. Hence, it is necessary to create a common platform how to proceed with the solution of this issue.

scholarly journals Mortality in Escherichia coli bloodstream infections: a multinational population-based cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa C. MacKinnon ◽  
Scott A. McEwen ◽  
David L. Pearl ◽  
Outi Lyytikäinen ◽  
Gunnar Jacobsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Day Case ◽  
Fatality Risk ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Background Escherichia coli is the most common cause of bloodstream infections (BSIs) and mortality is an important aspect of burden of disease. Using a multinational population-based cohort of E. coli BSIs, our objectives were to evaluate 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate, and determine factors associated with each. Methods During 2014–2018, we identified 30-day deaths from all incident E. coli BSIs from surveillance nationally in Finland, and regionally in Sweden (Skaraborg) and Canada (Calgary, Sherbrooke, western interior). We used a multivariable logistic regression model to estimate factors associated with 30-day case fatality risk. The explanatory variables considered for inclusion were year (2014–2018), region (five areas), age (< 70-years-old, ≥70-years-old), sex (female, male), third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) resistance (susceptible, resistant), and location of onset (community-onset, hospital-onset). The European Union 28-country 2018 population was used to directly age and sex standardize mortality rates. We used a multivariable Poisson model to estimate factors associated with mortality rate, and year, region, age and sex were considered for inclusion. Results From 38.7 million person-years of surveillance, we identified 2961 30-day deaths in 30,923 incident E. coli BSIs. The overall 30-day case fatality risk was 9.6% (2961/30923). Calgary, Skaraborg, and western interior had significantly increased odds of 30-day mortality compared to Finland. Hospital-onset and 3GC-resistant E. coli BSIs had significantly increased odds of mortality compared to community-onset and 3GC-susceptible. The significant association between age and odds of mortality varied with sex, and contrasts were used to interpret this interaction relationship. The overall standardized 30-day mortality rate was 8.5 deaths/100,000 person-years. Sherbrooke had a significantly lower 30-day mortality rate compared to Finland. Patients that were either ≥70-years-old or male both experienced significantly higher mortality rates than those < 70-years-old or female. Conclusions In our study populations, region, age, and sex were significantly associated with both 30-day case fatality risk and mortality rate. Additionally, 3GC resistance and location of onset were significantly associated with 30-day case fatality risk. Escherichia coli BSIs caused a considerable burden of disease from 30-day mortality. When analyzing population-based mortality data, it is important to explore mortality through two lenses, mortality rate and case fatality risk.

scholarly journals End-to-end convolutional neural network enables COVID-19 detection from breath and cough audio: a pilot study

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 356-362
Author(s):  
Harry Coppock ◽  
Alex Gaskell ◽  
Panagiotis Tzirakis ◽  
Alice Baird ◽  
Lyn Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Alternative Form ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Audio Signals ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Empirical Performance

BackgroundSince the emergence of COVID-19 in December 2019, multidisciplinary research teams have wrestled with how best to control the pandemic in light of its considerable physical, psychological and economic damage. Mass testing has been advocated as a potential remedy; however, mass testing using physical tests is a costly and hard-to-scale solution.MethodsThis study demonstrates the feasibility of an alternative form of COVID-19 detection, harnessing digital technology through the use of audio biomarkers and deep learning. Specifically, we show that a deep neural network based model can be trained to detect symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases using breath and cough audio recordings.ResultsOur model, a custom convolutional neural network, demonstrates strong empirical performance on a data set consisting of 355 crowdsourced participants, achieving an area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics of 0.846 on the task of COVID-19 classification.ConclusionThis study offers a proof of concept for diagnosing COVID-19 using cough and breath audio signals and motivates a comprehensive follow-up research study on a wider data sample, given the evident advantages of a low-cost, highly scalable digital COVID-19 diagnostic tool.

scholarly journals Fall incidents in nursing home residents: development of a predictive clinical rule (FINDER)

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. e042941
Author(s):  
Vanja Milosevic ◽  
Aimee Linkens ◽  
Bjorn Winkens ◽  
Kim P G M Hurkens ◽  
Dennis Wong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Home ◽  
Fall Risk ◽  
Nursing Home Residents ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Fall Incident ◽  
Clinical Rule

ObjectivesTo develop (part I) and validate (part II) an electronic fall risk clinical rule (CR) to identify nursing home residents (NH-residents) at risk for a fall incident.DesignObservational, retrospective case–control study.SettingNursing homes.ParticipantsA total of 1668 (824 in part I, 844 in part II) NH-residents from the Netherlands were included. Data of participants from part I were excluded in part II.Primary and secondary outcome measuresDevelopment and validation of a fall risk CR in NH-residents. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the fall risk-variables in part I. With these, three CRs were developed (ie, at the day of the fall incident and 3 days and 5 days prior to the fall incident). The overall prediction quality of the CRs were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC), and a cut-off value was determined for the predicted risk ensuring a sensitivity ≥0.85. Finally, one CR was chosen and validated in part II using a new retrospective data set.ResultsEleven fall risk-variables were identified in part I. The AUROCs of the three CRs form part I were similar: the AUROC for models I, II and III were 0.714 (95% CI: 0.679 to 0.748), 0.715 (95% CI: 0.680 to 0.750) and 0.709 (95% CI: 0.674 to 0.744), respectively. Model III (ie, 5 days prior to the fall incident) was chosen for validation in part II. The validated AUROC of the CR, obtained in part II, was 0.603 (95% CI: 0.565 to 0.641) with a sensitivity of 83.41% (95% CI: 79.44% to 86.76%) and a specificity of 27.25% (95% CI 23.11% to 31.81%).ConclusionMedication data and resident characteristics alone are not sufficient enough to develop a successful CR with a high sensitivity and specificity to predict fall risk in NH-residents.Trial registration numberNot available.

Event detection of different English data sources based on transfer learning

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Yanan Huang ◽  
Yuji Miao ◽  
Zhenjing Da
Keyword(s):  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Event Detection ◽  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Single Data Source ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Single Data

The methods of multi-modal English event detection under a single data source and isomorphic event detection of different English data sources based on transfer learning still need to be improved. In order to improve the efficiency of English and data source time detection, based on the transfer learning algorithm, this paper proposes multi-modal event detection under a single data source and isomorphic event detection based on transfer learning for different data sources. Moreover, by stacking multiple classification models, this paper makes each feature merge with each other, and conducts confrontation training through the difference between the two classifiers to further make the distribution of different source data similar. In addition, in order to verify the algorithm proposed in this paper, a multi-source English event detection data set is collected through a data collection method. Finally, this paper uses the data set to verify the method proposed in this paper and compare it with the current most mainstream transfer learning methods. Through experimental analysis, convergence analysis, visual analysis and parameter evaluation, the effectiveness of the algorithm proposed in this paper is demonstrated.

Magnetotelluric static shift: Estimation and removal using the cokriging method

Geophysics ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. F25-F34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benoit Tournerie ◽  
Michel Chouteau ◽  
Denis Marcotte
Keyword(s):  
Apparent Resistivity ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Shift Factor ◽  
Static Shift ◽  
Geostatistical Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Resistivity Sounding ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Cross Variogram

We present and test a new method to correct for the static shift affecting magnetotelluric (MT) apparent resistivity sounding curves. We use geostatistical analysis of apparent resistivity and phase data for selected periods. For each period, we first estimate and model the experimental variograms and cross variogram between phase and apparent resistivity. We then use the geostatistical model to estimate, by cokriging, the corrected apparent resistivities using the measured phases and apparent resistivities. The static shift factor is obtained as the difference between the logarithm of the corrected and measured apparent resistivities. We retain as final static shift estimates the ones for the period displaying the best correlation with the estimates at all periods. We present a 3D synthetic case study showing that the static shift is retrieved quite precisely when the static shift factors are uniformly distributed around zero. If the static shift distribution has a nonzero mean, we obtained best results when an apparent resistivity data subset can be identified a priori as unaffected by static shift and cokriging is done using only this subset. The method has been successfully tested on the synthetic COPROD-2S2 2D MT data set and on a 3D-survey data set from Las Cañadas Caldera (Tenerife, Canary Islands) severely affected by static shift.

scholarly journals What Countries Select More Experienced Leaders? The PolEx Measure of Political Experience

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Alexander Baturo ◽  
Johan A. Elkink
Keyword(s):  
Career Paths ◽  
Latent Variable ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Political Experience ◽  
National Leaders ◽  
Regime Types ◽  
The Difference

Abstract How can one assess which countries select more experienced leaders for the highest office? There is wide variation in prior career paths of national leaders within, and even more so between, regime types. It is therefore challenging to obtain a truly comparative measure of political experience; empirical studies have to rely on proxies instead. This article proposes PolEx, a measure of political experience that abstracts away from the details of career paths and generalizes based on the duration, quality and breadth of an individual's experience in politics. The analysis draws on a novel data set of around 2,000 leaders from 1950 to 2017 and uses a Bayesian latent variable model to estimate PolEx. The article illustrates how the new measure can be used comparatively to assess whether democracies select more experienced leaders. The authors find that while on average they do, the difference with non-democracies has declined dramatically since the early 2000s. Future research may leverage PolEx to investigate the role of prior political experience in, for example, policy making and crisis management.

scholarly journals Optimal timing of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography for acute cholangitis associated with distal malignant biliary obstruction

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Namyoung Park ◽  
Sang Hyub Lee ◽  
Min Su You ◽  
Joo Seong Kim ◽  
Gunn Huh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography ◽  
Biliary Obstruction ◽  
Acute Cholangitis ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Malignant Biliary Obstruction ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Endoscopic Retrograde ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Distal Malignant Biliary Obstruction

Abstract Background There is a lack of studies regarding the optimal timing for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients with cholangitis caused by distal malignant biliary obstruction (MBO). This study aims to investigate the optimal timing of ERCP in patients with acute cholangitis associated with distal MBO with a naïve papilla. Methods A total of 421 patients with acute cholangitis, associated with distal MBO, were enrolled for this study. An urgent ERCP was defined as being an ERCP performed within 24 h following emergency room (ER) arrival, and early ERCP was defined as an ERCP performed between 24 and 48 h following ER arrival. We evaluated both 30-day and 180-day mortality as primary outcomes, according to the timing of the ERCP. Results The urgent ERCP group showed the lowest 30-day mortality rate (2.2%), as compared to the early and delayed ERCP groups (4.3% and 13.5%) (P < 0.001). The 180-day mortality rate was lowest in the urgent ERCP group, followed by early ERCP and delayed ERCP groups (39.4%, 44.8%, 60.8%; P = 0.006). A subgroup analysis showed that in both the primary distal MBO group, as well as in the moderate-to-severe cholangitis group, the urgent ERCP had significantly improved in both 30-day and 180-day mortality rates. However, in the secondary MBO and mild cholangitis groups, the difference in mortality rate between urgent, early, and delayed ERCP groups was not significant. Conclusions In patients with acute cholangitis associated with distal MBO, urgent ERCP might be helpful in improving the prognosis, especially in patients with primary distal MBO or moderate-to-severe cholangitis.

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