scholarly journals Projected impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on the global biogeography of planktonic Foraminifera

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2873-2889 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Roy ◽  
F. Lombard ◽  
L. Bopp ◽  
M. Gehlen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Planktonic Foraminifera ◽  
Marine Carbonate ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Calcite Saturation ◽  
Abundance And Diversity ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Carbonate Flux

Abstract. Planktonic Foraminifera are a major contributor to the deep carbonate flux and their microfossil deposits form one of the richest databases for reconstructing paleoenvironments, particularly through changes in their taxonomic and shell composition. Using an empirically based planktonic foraminifer model that incorporates three known major physiological drivers of their biogeography – temperature, food and light – we investigate (i) the global redistribution of planktonic Foraminifera under anthropogenic climate change and (ii) the alteration of the carbonate chemistry of foraminiferal habitat with ocean acidification. The present-day and future (2090–2100) 3-D distributions of Foraminifera are simulated using temperature, plankton biomass and light from an Earth system model forced with a historical and a future (IPCC A2) high CO2 emission scenario. Foraminiferal abundance and diversity are projected to decrease in the tropics and subpolar regions and increase in the subtropics and around the poles. Temperature is the dominant control on the future change in the biogeography of Foraminifera. Yet food availability acts to either reinforce or counteract the temperature-driven changes. In the tropics and subtropics the largely temperature-driven shift to depth is enhanced by the increased concentration of phytoplankton at depth. In the higher latitudes the food-driven response partly offsets the temperature-driven reduction both in the subsurface and across large geographical regions. The large-scale rearrangements in foraminiferal abundance and the reduction in the carbonate ion concentrations in the habitat range of planktonic foraminifers – from 10–30 μmol kg−1 in their polar and subpolar habitats to 30–70 μmol kg−1 in their subtropical and tropical habitats – would be expected to lead to changes in the marine carbonate flux. High-latitude species are most vulnerable to anthropogenic change: their abundance and available habitat decrease and up to 10% of the volume of their habitat drops below the calcite saturation horizon.

scholarly journals Projected impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on the global biogeography of planktonic foraminifera

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 10083-10121
Author(s):  
T. Roy ◽  
F. Lombard ◽  
L. Bopp ◽  
M. Gehlen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Planktonic Foraminifera ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Carbonate Concentration ◽  
Calcite Saturation ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Planktonic foraminifera are a major contributor to the deep carbonate-flux and the planktonic biomass of the global ocean. Their microfossil deposits form one of the richest databases for reconstructing paleoenvironments, particularly through changes in their taxonomic and shell composition. Using an empirically-based foraminifer model that incorporates three known major physiological drivers of foraminifer biogeography – temperature, food and light – we investigate (i) the global redistribution of planktonic foraminifera under anthropogenic climate change, and (ii) the alteration of the carbonate chemistry of foraminifer habitat with ocean acidification. The present-day and future (2090–2100) 3-D distributions of foraminifera are simulated using temperature, plankton biomass, and light from an Earth system model forced with historical and a future (IPCC A2) high CO2 emission scenario. The broadscale patterns of present day foraminifer biogeography are well reproduced. Foraminifer abundance and diversity are projected to decrease in the tropics and subpolar regions and increase in the subtropics and around the poles. In the tropics, the geographical shifts are driven by temperature, while the vertical shifts are driven by both temperature and food availability. In the high-latitudes, vertical shifts are driven by food availability, while geographical shifts are driven by both food availability and temperature. Changes in the marine carbon cycle would be expected in response to (i) the large-scale rearrangements in foraminifer abundance, and (ii) the reduction of the carbonate concentration in the habitat range of planktonic foraminifers: from 10–30 μmol kg−1 in the polar/subpolar regions to 30–70 μmol kg−1 in the subtropical/tropical regions. High-latitude species are most vulnerable to anthropogenic change: their abundance and available habitat decrease and up to 10% of their habitat drops below the calcite saturation horizon.

scholarly journals Modelling ocean acidification effects with life stage-specific responses alters spatiotemporal patterns of catch and revenues of American lobster, Homarus americanus

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis C. Tai ◽  
Piero Calosi ◽  
Helen J. Gurney-Smith ◽  
William W. L. Cheung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Life Stage ◽  
Homarus Americanus ◽  
Minimum Size ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
American Lobster ◽  
Fishing Pressure ◽  
Size Limits

AbstractOcean acidification (OA) affects marine organisms through various physiological and biological processes, yet our understanding of how these translate to large-scale population effects remains limited. Here, we integrated laboratory-based experimental results on the life history and physiological responses to OA of the American lobster, Homarus americanus, into a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model to project future climate change effects on species distribution, abundance, and fisheries catch potential. Ocean acidification effects on juvenile stages had the largest stage-specific impacts on the population, while cumulative effects across life stages significantly exerted the greatest impacts, albeit quite minimal. Reducing fishing pressure leads to overall increases in population abundance while setting minimum size limits also results in more higher-priced market-sized lobsters (> 1 lb), and could help mitigate the negative impacts of OA and concurrent stressors (warming, deoxygenation). However, the magnitude of increased effects of climate change overweighs any moderate population gains made by changes in fishing pressure and size limits, reinforcing that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is most pressing and that climate-adaptive fisheries management is necessary as a secondary role to ensure population resiliency. We suggest possible strategies to mitigate impacts by preserving important population demographics.

Altered States: What Will Coral Reefs Look Like in the Future?

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 131-137
Author(s):  
Joanie A. Kleypas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coral Reef ◽  
Coral Reefs ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Altered States ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Future ◽  
Coral Reef Ecosystems ◽  
Bounce Back

Future environmental conditions for coral reefs are rapidly approaching states outside the ranges reefs have experienced for thousands to millions of years. Coral reef ecosystems, once thought to be robust to climate change because of their ability to bounce back after large scale physical impacts, have proven to be sensitive to both temperature rise and ocean acidification. Predicting what coral reefs will look like in the future is not an easy task, and one that is likely to be proven flawed. The discussion presented here is a starting point for those predictions, mostly from the perspective of reef building and ocean acidification.

scholarly journals Geographical gradients in selection can reveal genetic constraints for evolutionary responses to ocean acidification

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 20160784 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Diego Gaitán-Espitia ◽  
Dustin Marshall ◽  
Sam Dupont ◽  
Leonardo D. Bacigalupe ◽  
Levente Bodrossy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Genetic Variation ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Genetic Correlations ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Low Ph ◽  
Directional Selection ◽  
Genetic Constraints ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Geographical gradients in selection can shape different genetic architectures in natural populations, reflecting potential genetic constraints for adaptive evolution under climate change. Investigation of natural pH/ p CO 2 variation in upwelling regions reveals different spatio-temporal patterns of natural selection, generating genetic and phenotypic clines in populations, and potentially leading to local adaptation, relevant to understanding effects of ocean acidification (OA). Strong directional selection, associated with intense and continuous upwellings, may have depleted genetic variation in populations within these upwelling regions, favouring increased tolerances to low pH but with an associated cost in other traits. In contrast, diversifying or weak directional selection in populations with seasonal upwellings or outside major upwelling regions may have resulted in higher genetic variances and the lack of genetic correlations among traits. Testing this hypothesis in geographical regions with similar environmental conditions to those predicted under climate change will build insights into how selection may act in the future and how populations may respond to stressors such as OA.

Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 549-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Ma ◽  
Robin Chadwick ◽  
Kyong-Hwan Seo ◽  
Changming Dong ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Local Circulation ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
The Tropics

This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

scholarly journals Climate change and ocean acidification impacts on lower trophic levels and the export of organic carbon to the deep ocean

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 5831-5854 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Yool ◽  
E. E. Popova ◽  
A. C. Coward ◽  
D. Bernie ◽  
T. R. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Trophic Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Marine Biota

Abstract. Most future projections forecast significant and ongoing climate change during the 21st century, but with the severity of impacts dependent on efforts to restrain or reorganise human activity to limit carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. A major sink for atmospheric CO2, and a key source of biological resources, the World Ocean is widely anticipated to undergo profound physical and – via ocean acidification – chemical changes as direct and indirect results of these emissions. Given strong biophysical coupling, the marine biota is also expected to experience strong changes in response to this anthropogenic forcing. Here we examine the large-scale response of ocean biogeochemistry to climate and acidification impacts during the 21st century for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 using an intermediate complexity global ecosystem model, MEDUSA-2.0. The primary impact of future change lies in stratification-led declines in the availability of key nutrients in surface waters, which in turn leads to a global decrease (1990s vs. 2090s) in ocean productivity (−6.3%). This impact has knock-on consequences for the abundance of the low trophic level biogeochemical actors modelled by MEDUSA-2.0 (−5.8%), and these would be expected to similarly impact higher trophic level elements such as fisheries. Related impacts are found in the flux of organic material to seafloor communities (−40.7% at 1000 m), and in the volume of ocean suboxic zones (+12.5%). A sensitivity analysis removing an acidification feedback on calcification finds that change in this process significantly impacts benthic communities, suggesting that a~better understanding of the OA-sensitivity of calcifying organisms, and their role in ballasting sinking organic carbon, may significantly improve forecasting of these ecosystems. For all processes, there is geographical variability in change – for instance, productivity declines −21% in the Atlantic and increases +59% in the Arctic – and changes are much more pronounced under RCP 8.5 than the RCP 2.6 scenario.

scholarly journals Global climate response to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 5615-5638 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lena R. Boysen ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Julia Pongratz ◽  
David M. Lawrence ◽  
Peter Lawrence ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Non Local ◽  
State Models ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Changes in forest cover have a strong effect on climate through the alteration of surface biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties that affect energy, water and carbon exchange with the atmosphere. To quantify biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of deforestation in a consistent setup, nine Earth system models (ESMs) carried out an idealized experiment in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6). Starting from their pre-industrial state, models linearly replace 20×106 km2 of forest area in densely forested regions with grasslands over a period of 50 years followed by a stabilization period of 30 years. Most of the deforested area is in the tropics, with a secondary peak in the boreal region. The effect on global annual near-surface temperature ranges from no significant change to a cooling by 0.55 ∘C, with a multi-model mean of -0.22±0.21 ∘C. Five models simulate a temperature increase over deforested land in the tropics and a cooling over deforested boreal land. In these models, the latitude at which the temperature response changes sign ranges from 11 to 43∘ N, with a multi-model mean of 23∘ N. A multi-ensemble analysis reveals that the detection of near-surface temperature changes even under such a strong deforestation scenario may take decades and thus longer than current policy horizons. The observed changes emerge first in the centre of deforestation in tropical regions and propagate edges, indicating the influence of non-local effects. The biogeochemical effect of deforestation are land carbon losses of 259±80 PgC that emerge already within the first decade. Based on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) this would yield a warming by 0.46 ± 0.22 ∘C, suggesting a net warming effect of deforestation. Lastly, this study introduces the “forest sensitivity” (as a measure of climate or carbon change per fraction or area of deforestation), which has the potential to provide lookup tables for deforestation–climate emulators in the absence of strong non-local climate feedbacks. While there is general agreement across models in their response to deforestation in terms of change in global temperatures and land carbon pools, the underlying changes in energy and carbon fluxes diverge substantially across models and geographical regions. Future analyses of the global deforestation experiments could further explore the effect on changes in seasonality of the climate response as well as large-scale circulation changes to advance our understanding and quantification of deforestation effects in the ESM frameworks.

scholarly journals Climate change and ocean acidification impacts on lower trophic levels and the export of organic carbon to the deep ocean

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 3455-3522 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Yool ◽  
E. E. Popova ◽  
A. C. Coward ◽  
D. Bernie ◽  
T. R. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Trophic Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Marine Biota

Abstract. Most future projections forecast significant and ongoing climate change during the 21st century, but with the severity of impacts dependent on efforts to restrain or reorganise human activity to limit carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. A major sink for atmospheric CO2, and a key source of biological resources, the World Ocean is widely anticipated to undergo profound physical and – via ocean acidification – chemical changes as direct and indirect results of these emissions. Given strong biophysical coupling, the marine biota is also expected to experience strong changes in response to this anthropogenic forcing. Here we examine the large-scale response of ocean biogeochemistry to climate and acidification impacts during the 21st century for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 using an intermediate complexity global ecosystem model, Medusa–2.0. The primary impact of future change lies in stratification-led declines in the availability of key nutrients in surface waters, which in turn leads to a global decrease (1990s vs. 2090s) in ocean productivity (−6.3%). This impact has knock-on consequences for the abundances of the low trophic level biogeochemical actors modelled by Medusa–2.0 (−5.8%), and these would be expected to similarly impact higher trophic level elements such as fisheries. Related impacts are found in the flux of organic material to seafloor communities (−40.7% at 1000 m), and in the volume of ocean suboxic zones (+12.5%). A sensitivity analysis removing an acidification feedback on calcification finds that change in this process significantly impacts benthic communities, suggesting that a better understanding of the OA-sensitivity of calcifying organisms, and their role in ballasting sinking organic carbon, may significantly improve forecasting of these ecosystems. For all processes, there is geographical variability in change, and changes are much more pronounced under RCP 8.5 than the RCP 2.6 scenario.

scholarly journals Public Awareness: What Climate Change Scientists Should Consider

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8369
Author(s):  
Mohammad Rahimi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Connected Network ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Valuable Addition ◽  
Scientific Approach ◽  
Design Solutions ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change

In this Opinion, the importance of public awareness to design solutions to mitigate climate change issues is highlighted. A large-scale acknowledgment of the climate change consequences has great potential to build social momentum. Momentum, in turn, builds motivation and demand, which can be leveraged to develop a multi-scale strategy to tackle the issue. The pursuit of public awareness is a valuable addition to the scientific approach to addressing climate change issues. The Opinion is concluded by providing strategies on how to effectively raise public awareness on climate change-related topics through an integrated, well-connected network of mavens (e.g., scientists) and connectors (e.g., social media influencers).

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

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