Modelling ocean acidification effects with life stage-specific responses alters spatiotemporal patterns of catch and revenues of American lobster, Homarus americanus

AbstractOcean acidification (OA) affects marine organisms through various physiological and biological processes, yet our understanding of how these translate to large-scale population effects remains limited. Here, we integrated laboratory-based experimental results on the life history and physiological responses to OA of the American lobster, Homarus americanus, into a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model to project future climate change effects on species distribution, abundance, and fisheries catch potential. Ocean acidification effects on juvenile stages had the largest stage-specific impacts on the population, while cumulative effects across life stages significantly exerted the greatest impacts, albeit quite minimal. Reducing fishing pressure leads to overall increases in population abundance while setting minimum size limits also results in more higher-priced market-sized lobsters (> 1 lb), and could help mitigate the negative impacts of OA and concurrent stressors (warming, deoxygenation). However, the magnitude of increased effects of climate change overweighs any moderate population gains made by changes in fishing pressure and size limits, reinforcing that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is most pressing and that climate-adaptive fisheries management is necessary as a secondary role to ensure population resiliency. We suggest possible strategies to mitigate impacts by preserving important population demographics.

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Tolerant Larvae and Sensitive Juveniles: Integrating Metabolomics and Whole-Organism Responses to Define Life-Stage Specific Sensitivity to Ocean Acidification in the American Lobster

Metabolites ◽

10.3390/metabo11090584 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 584

Author(s):

Fanny Noisette ◽

Piero Calosi ◽

Diana Madeira ◽

Mathilde Chemel ◽

Kayla Menu-Courey ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ocean Acidification ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Marine Invertebrates ◽

Marine Invertebrate ◽

Life Stage ◽

Homarus Americanus ◽

Life Cycles ◽

Elevated Pco2 ◽

High Pco2 ◽

American Lobster

Bentho-pelagic life cycles are the dominant reproductive strategy in marine invertebrates, providing great dispersal ability, access to different resources, and the opportunity to settle in suitable habitats upon the trigger of environmental cues at key developmental moments. However, free-dispersing larvae can be highly sensitive to environmental changes. Among these, the magnitude and the occurrence of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in oceanic habitats is predicted to exacerbate over the next decades, particularly in coastal areas, reaching levels beyond those historically experienced by most marine organisms. Here, we aimed to determine the sensitivity to elevated pCO2 of successive life stages of a marine invertebrate species with a bentho-pelagic life cycle, exposed continuously during its early ontogeny, whilst providing in-depth insights on their metabolic responses. We selected, as an ideal study species, the American lobster Homarus americanus, and investigated life history traits, whole-organism physiology, and metabolomic fingerprints from larval stage I to juvenile stage V exposed to different pCO2 levels. Current and future ocean acidification scenarios were tested, as well as extreme high pCO2/low pH conditions that are predicted to occur in coastal benthic habitats and with leakages from underwater carbon capture storage (CCS) sites. Larvae demonstrated greater tolerance to elevated pCO2, showing no significant changes in survival, developmental time, morphology, and mineralisation, although they underwent intense metabolomic reprogramming. Conversely, juveniles showed the inverse pattern, with a reduction in survival and an increase in development time at the highest pCO2 levels tested, with no indication of metabolomic reprogramming. Metabolomic sensitivity to elevated pCO2 increased until metamorphosis (between larval and juvenile stages) and decreased afterward, suggesting this transition as a metabolic keystone for marine invertebrates with complex life cycles.

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Current and future occurrences of health-relevant, compound heat and ozone pollution events in six European ozone-temperature regions

10.5194/ems2021-61 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sally Jahn ◽

Elke Hertig

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Large Scale ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Ground Level ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Ozone Pollution ◽

Ground Level Ozone ◽

Ozone Concentrations ◽

Elevated Ozone

Air pollution and heat events present two major health risks, both already independently posing a significant threat to human health and life. High levels of ground-level ozone (O3) and air temperature often coincide due to the underlying physical relationships between both variables. The most severe health outcome is in general associated with the co-occurrence of both hazards (e.g. Hertig et al. 2020), since concurrent elevated levels of temperature and ozone concentrations represent a twofold exposure and can lead to a risk beyond the sum of the individual effects. Consequently, in the current contribution, a compound approach considering both hazards simultaneously as so-called ozone-temperature (o-t-)events is chosen by jointly analyzing elevated ground-level ozone concentrations and air temperature levels in Europe.Previous studies already point to the fact that the relationship of underlying synoptic and meteorological drivers with one or both of these health stressors as well as the correlation between both variables vary with the location of sites and seasons (e.g. Otero et al. 2016; Jahn, Hertig 2020). Therefore, a hierarchical clustering analysis is applied to objectively divide the study domain in regions of homogeneous, similar ground-level ozone and temperature characteristics (o-t-regions). Statistical models to assess the synoptic and large-scale meteorological mechanisms which represent main drivers of concurrent o-t-events are developed for each identified o-t-region.Compound elevated ozone concentration and air temperature events are expected to become more frequent due to climate change in many parts of Europe (e.g. Jahn, Hertig 2020; Hertig 2020). Statistical projections of potential frequency shifts of compound o-t-events until the end of the twenty-first century are assessed using the output of Earth System Models (ESMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).Hertig, E. (2020) Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869-020-00811-zHertig, E., Russo, A., Trigo, R. (2020) Heat and ozone pollution waves in Central and South Europe- characteristics, weather types, and association with mortality. Atmosphere. doi: 10.3390/atmos11121271Jahn, S., Hertig, E. (2020) Modeling and projecting health&#8208;relevant combined ozone and temperature events in present and future Central European climate. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869&#8208;020&#8208;009610Otero N., Sillmann J., Schnell J.L., Rust H.W., Butler T. (2016) Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe. Environ Res Lett. doi: 10.1088/ 1748-9326/11/2/024005

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Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France)

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-8-2235-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 2235-2262

Author(s):

E. Joigneaux ◽

P. Albéric ◽

H. Pauwels ◽

C. Pagé ◽

L. Terray ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Water ◽

Groundwater Quality ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

Large Scale ◽

Weather Type ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact ◽

Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 yr. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.

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Atmospheric Dynamics Feedback: Concept, Simulations, and Climate Implications

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-17-0470.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 31 (8) ◽

pp. 3249-3264 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Michael P. Byrne ◽

Tapio Schneider

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Atmospheric Dynamics ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Coupled Models ◽

Near Surface ◽

Circulation Changes

AbstractThe regional climate response to radiative forcing is largely controlled by changes in the atmospheric circulation. It has been suggested that global climate sensitivity also depends on the circulation response, an effect called the “atmospheric dynamics feedback.” Using a technique to isolate the influence of changes in atmospheric circulation on top-of-the-atmosphere radiation, the authors calculate the atmospheric dynamics feedback in coupled climate models. Large-scale circulation changes contribute substantially to all-sky and cloud feedbacks in the tropics but are relatively less important at higher latitudes. Globally averaged, the atmospheric dynamics feedback is positive and amplifies the near-surface temperature response to climate change by an average of 8% in simulations with coupled models. A constraint related to the atmospheric mass budget results in the dynamics feedback being small on large scales relative to feedbacks associated with thermodynamic processes. Idealized-forcing simulations suggest that circulation changes at high latitudes are potentially more effective at influencing global temperature than circulation changes at low latitudes, and the implications for past and future climate change are discussed.

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Ocean acidification alters thermal cardiac performance, hemocyte abundance, and hemolymph chemistry in subadult American lobsters Homarus americanus H. Milne Edwards, 1837 (Decapoda: Malcostraca: Nephropidae)

Journal of Crustacean Biology ◽

10.1093/jcbiol/ruz015 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 39 (4) ◽

pp. 468-476 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Amalia M Harrington ◽

Heather J Hamlin

Keyword(s):

Ocean Acidification ◽

Carrying Capacity ◽

Total Protein ◽

Sublethal Effects ◽

Homarus Americanus ◽

Cardiac Performance ◽

Total Protein Content ◽

American Lobster ◽

Control Versus ◽

Oxygen Carrying Capacity

ABSTRACT Increased anthropogenic input of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere has caused widespread patterns of ocean acidification (OA) and increased the frequency of extreme warming events. We explored the sublethal effects of OA on the hemolymph chemistry and physiological response to acute thermal stress in the American lobster (Homarus americanus H. Milne Edwards, 1837). We exposed subadult lobsters to current or predicted end-century pH conditions (8.0 and 7.6, respectively) for 60 days. Following exposure, we assessed hemolymph L-lactate and calcium concentrations (as indicators of oxygen carrying capacity), ecdysterone concentrations, total protein content, and total hemocyte counts (THCs) as an indicator of immune response. We also assessed cardiac performance in the context of an acute warming event using impedance pneumography. Calcium, total protein, and ecdysterone concentrations were not significantly altered (P ≥ 0.10) by OA exposure. Control lobsters, however, had significantly higher levels of L-lactate concentrations compared to acidified lobsters, suggesting reduced oxygen carrying capacity under OA. THCs were also 61% higher in control versus acidified lobsters, suggesting immunosuppression under chronic OA. Lobsters exposed to acidified conditions exhibited reduced cardiac performance under acute warming as indicated by significantly lower (P = 0.040) Arrhenius Break Temperatures compared to control lobsters. These results suggest that although some physiological endpoints of American lobster are not impacted by OA, the stress of OA will likely be compounded by acute heat shock and may present additional physiological challenges for this species in the face of future change.

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The Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Ecosystems and Reliant Human Communities

Annual Review of Environment and Resources ◽

10.1146/annurev-environ-012320-083019 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 45 (1) ◽

pp. 83-112 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Scott C. Doney ◽

D. Shallin Busch ◽

Sarah R. Cooley ◽

Kristy J. Kroeker

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ocean Acidification ◽

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽

Information Needs ◽

Field Studies ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Future Research ◽

Shoreline Protection ◽

Biological Impacts ◽

Estuarine Coastal

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, along with agriculture and land-use practices are causing wholesale increases in seawater CO2 and inorganic carbon levels; reductions in pH; and alterations in acid-base chemistry of estuarine, coastal, and surface open-ocean waters. On the basis of laboratory experiments and field studies of naturally elevated CO2 marine environments, widespread biological impacts of human-driven ocean acidification have been posited, ranging from changes in organism physiology and population dynamics to altered communities and ecosystems. Acidification, in conjunction with other climate change–related environmental stresses, particularly under future climate change and further elevated atmospheric CO2 levels, potentially puts at risk many of the valuable ecosystem services that the ocean provides to society, such as fisheries, aquaculture, and shoreline protection. Thisreview emphasizes both current scientific understanding and knowledge gaps, highlighting directions for future research and recognizing the information needs of policymakers and stakeholders.

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Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061762 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1762 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Nathan Rickards ◽

Thomas Thomas ◽

Alexandra Kaelin ◽

Helen Houghton-Carr ◽

Sharad K. Jain ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Large Scale ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

The Impact ◽

Availability Assessment

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.

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A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences ◽

10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 373 (2054) ◽

pp. 20140423 ◽

Cited By ~ 96

Author(s):

C. D. Koven ◽

E. A. G. Schuur ◽

C. Schädel ◽

T. J. Bohn ◽

E. J. Burke ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Feedback ◽

Soil Horizon ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Thermal Dynamics ◽

Soil C ◽

Warming Scenario ◽

C Stocks ◽

Permafrost Soils

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change ( γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C −1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.

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How Much Should Climate Model Output Be Smoothed in Space?

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2010jcli3872.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 24 (3) ◽

pp. 867-880 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Jouni Räisänen ◽

Jussi S. Ylhäisi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Small Scale ◽

Model Output ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Local Conditions ◽

Climate Model Output ◽

Mean Climate

Abstract The general decrease in the quality of climate model output with decreasing scale suggests a need for spatial smoothing to suppress the most unreliable small-scale features. However, even if correctly simulated, a large-scale average retained by the smoothing may not be representative of the local conditions, which are of primary interest in many impact studies. Here, the authors study this trade-off using simulations of temperature and precipitation by 24 climate models within the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, to find the scale of smoothing at which the mean-square difference between smoothed model output and gridbox-scale reality is minimized. This is done for present-day time mean climate, recent temperature trends, and projections of future climate change, using cross validation between the models for the latter. The optimal scale depends strongly on the number of models used, being much smaller for multimodel means than for individual model simulations. It also depends on the variable considered and, in the case of climate change projections, the time horizon. For multimodel-mean climate change projections for the late twenty-first century, only very slight smoothing appears to be beneficial, and the resulting potential improvement is negligible for practical purposes. The use of smoothing as a means to improve the sampling for probabilistic climate change projections is also briefly explored.

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Evidence for changes in historic and future groundwater levels in the UK

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133314550668 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 39 (1) ◽

pp. 49-67 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Christopher R. Jackson ◽

John P. Bloomfield ◽

Jonathan D. Mackay

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Groundwater Levels ◽

Groundwater Drought ◽

The One ◽

The Uk

We examine the evidence for climate-change impacts on groundwater levels provided by studies of the historical observational record, and future climate-change impact modelling. To date no evidence has been found for systematic changes in groundwater drought frequency or intensity in the UK, but some evidence of multi-annual to decadal coherence of groundwater levels and large-scale climate indices has been found, which should be considered when trying to identify any trends. We analyse trends in long groundwater level time-series monitored in seven observation boreholes in the Chalk aquifer, and identify statistically significant declines at four of these sites, but do not attempt to attribute these to a change in a stimulus. The evidence for the impacts of future climate change on UK groundwater recharge and levels is limited. The number of studies that have been undertaken is small and different approaches have been adopted to quantify impacts. Furthermore, these studies have generally focused on relatively small regions and reported local findings. Consequently, it has been difficult to compare them between locations. We undertake some additional analysis of the probabilistic outputs of the one recent impact study that has produced coherent multi-site projections of changes in groundwater levels. These results suggest reductions in annual and average summer levels, and increases in average winter levels, by the 2050s under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, at most of the sites modelled, when expressed by the median of the ensemble of simulations. It is concluded, however, that local hydrogeological conditions can be an important control on the simulated response to a future climate projection.

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