Analyse und Kommunikation der beobachteten Klimatrends in Deutschland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Imbery ◽  
Frank Kaspar ◽  
Karsten Friedrich
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Data Centre ◽  
Data Products

<p>Eine der Aufgaben des Deutschen Wetterdienstes ist die Klimaüberwachung für Deutschland. Dazu verwendet der DWD die Daten der Wetterstationen in seinem Messnetz in Kombination mit den historischen Klimadaten, die auch durch Vorgängerorganisationen des DWD erhoben wurden. Für den Zeitraum seit 1881 sind somit flächendeckende und systematisch erhobene Messungen verfügbar, die für eine Beschreibung des Klimawandels in Deutschland genutzt werden. Für den Zeitraum 1881 bis 2020 beträgt der lineare Trend der Temperatur +1,6°C. Das zurückliegende Jahrzehnt lag dabei allerdings deutlich oberhalb der Trendlinie, wodurch das aktuelle Jahrzehnt (2011-2020) bereits um 2 °C wärmer war als der Beginn der Zeitreihe (1881-1910).</p> <p>Für eine verlässliche Kommunikation des Klimazustands und eine einordnende Beschreibung von Klimaänderungen ist es zu einen essentiell, kontinuierlich die Qualität der zugrundeliegenden Daten zu analysieren und gegebenenfalls zu korrigieren, zum anderen die Darstellungs- und Kommunikationsformen an die Öffentlichkeit weiterzuentwickeln.</p> <p>Um die Homogenität der meteorologischen Zeitreihen zu gewährleisten, betreibt der DWD mehrere Klimareferenzstationen, an denen Parallelmessungen von historischen und operationellen Messinstrumenten durchgeführt werden. Mithilfe dieser Messungen werden die Vergleichbarkeit der Messungen untersucht, Messunsicherheiten abgeschätzt und gegebenenfalls Methoden zur Homogenisierung der Messreihen entwickelt.</p> <p>Zurzeit werden klimatologische Indizes sowohl innerhalb des DWD als auch mit nationalen und internationalen Partnern standardisiert. Für einige der gebräuchlichsten Indizes (z.B. Heiße Tage und Tropische Nächte) existieren unterschiedliche Definitionen, die parallel verwendet werden. Um widersprüchliche Aussagen zu vermeiden, müssen einheitliche Definitionen verwendet werden oder es sollte ausdrücklich auf die jeweils verwendete Definition hingewiesen werden.</p> <p>Für die Kommunikation des beobachteten Klimawandels werden unterschiedliche grafische Aufbereitungen der Daten für verschiedene Medien und Plattformen eingesetzt. In diesem Vortrag wird auch ein Überblick über aktuelle Kommunikationskanäle (z. B. Deutscher Klimaatlas, DWD-Klima-Twitterkanal) sowie die Zugangsmöglichkeiten zu den zugrundeliegenden Klimadaten des DWD gegeben.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Literatur und weiterführende Links:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Zeitreihen der Klimaänderung in Deutschland: https://www.dwd.de/zeitreihen</li> <li>Informationsportal 'Beobachteter Klimawandel in Deutschland':<br />https://www.dwd.de/klima-deutschland</li> <li>Deutscher Klimaatlas: https://www.deutscher-klimaatlas.de</li> <li>Twitterkanal 'DWD Klima und Umwelt': https://twitter.com/DWD_klima</li> <li>Offener Zugang zu den Klimadaten des DWD: https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/CDC/  https://cdc.dwd.de/portal</li> <li>Kaspar, F., Müller-Westermeier, G., Penda, E., Mächel, H., Zimmermann, K., Kaiser-Weiss, A., Deutschländer, T.: Monitoring of climate change in Germany – data, products and services of Germany's National Climate Data Centre, Adv. Sci. Res., 10, 99–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-99-2013, 2013.</li> </ul>

scholarly journals Quality Assurance Framework Development Based on Six New ECV Data Products to Enhance User Confidence for Climate Applications

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Nightingale ◽  
Folkert Boersma ◽  
Jan-Peter Muller ◽  
Steven Compernolle ◽  
Jean-Christopher Lambert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Quality Assurance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Earth Observation ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Data Products ◽  
Reference Measurements

Data from Earth Observation (EO) satellites are increasingly used to monitor the environment, understand variability and change, inform evaluations of climate model forecasts and manage natural resources. Policy makers are progressively relying on the information derived from these datasets to make decisions on mitigating and adapting to climate change. These decisions should be evidence based, which requires confidence in derived products as well as the reference measurements used to calibrate, validate or inform product development. In support of the European Union’s Earth Observation Programmes Copernicus Climate Change Service, the Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables (QA4ECV) project fulfilled a gap in the delivery of climate quality satellite derived datasets by prototyping a robust, generic system for the implementation and evaluation of Quality Assurance (QA) measures for satellite-derived ECV climate data record products. The project demonstrated the QA system on six new long-term, climate quality ECV data records for surface Albedo, Leaf Area Index, FAPAR, NO2, HCHO and CO. Provision of standardized QA information provides data users with evidence-based confidence in the products and enables judgement on the fitness-for-purpose of various ECV data products their specific applications.

scholarly journals Ten Priority Science Gaps in Assessing Climate Data Record Quality

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Nightingale ◽  
Jonathan P.D. Mittaz ◽  
Sarah Douglas ◽  
Dick Dee ◽  
James Ryder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Quality Assurance ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Science Knowledge ◽  
Knowledge Gaps ◽  
Quality Aspects ◽  
Data Products ◽  
In Situ Observations

Decision makers need accessible robust evidence to introduce new policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. There is an increasing amount of environmental information available to policy makers concerning observations and trends relating to the climate. However, this data is hosted across a multitude of websites often with inconsistent metadata and sparse information relating to the quality, accuracy and validity of the data. Subsequently, the task of comparing datasets to decide which is the most appropriate for a certain purpose is very complex and often infeasible. In support of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) mission to provide authoritative information about the past, present and future climate in Europe and the rest of the world, each dataset to be provided through this service must undergo an evaluation of its climate relevance and scientific quality to help with data comparisons. This paper presents the framework for Evaluation and Quality Control (EQC) of climate data products derived from satellite and in situ observations to be catalogued within the C3S Climate Data Store (CDS). The EQC framework will be implemented by C3S as part of their operational quality assurance programme. It builds on past and present international investment in Quality Assurance for Earth Observation initiatives, extensive user requirements gathering exercises, as well as a broad evaluation of over 250 data products and a more in-depth evaluation of a selection of 24 individual data products derived from satellite and in situ observations across the land, ocean and atmosphere Essential Climate Variable (ECV) domains. A prototype Content Management System (CMS) to facilitate the process of collating, evaluating and presenting the quality aspects and status of each data product to data users is also described. The development of the EQC framework has highlighted cross-domain as well as ECV specific science knowledge gaps in relation to addressing the quality of climate data sets derived from satellite and in situ observations. We discuss 10 common priority science knowledge gaps that will require further research investment to ensure all quality aspects of climate data sets can be ascertained and provide users with the range of information necessary to confidently select relevant products for their specific application.

scholarly journals Quality Assurance Framework Development Based on Six New ECV Data Products to Enhance User Confidence for Climate Applications

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Nightingale ◽  
Klaas Boersma ◽  
Jan-Peter Muller ◽  
Steven Compernolle ◽  
Jean-Christopher Lambert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Quality Assurance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Earth Observation ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Data Products ◽  
Reference Measurements ◽  
Framework Development

Data from Earth observation (EO) satellites are increasingly used to monitor the environment, understand variability and change, inform evaluations of climate model forecasts, and manage natural resources. Policymakers are progressively relying on the information derived from these datasets to make decisions on mitigating and adapting to climate change. These decisions should be evidence based, which requires confidence in derived products, as well as the reference measurements used to calibrate, validate, or inform product development. In support of the European Union’s Earth Observation Programmes Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables (QA4ECV) project fulfilled a gap in the delivery of climate quality satellite-derived datasets, by prototyping a generic system for the implementation and evaluation of quality assurance (QA) measures for satellite-derived ECV climate data record products. The project demonstrated the QA system on six new long-term, climate quality ECV data records for surface albedo, leaf area index (LAI), fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), formaldehyde (HCHO), and carbon monoxide (CO). The provision of standardised QA information provides data users with evidence-based confidence in the products and enables judgement on the fitness-for-purpose of various ECV data products and their specific applications.

scholarly journals Monitoring of climate change in Germany – data, products and services of Germany's National Climate Data Centre

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Kaspar ◽  
G. Müller-Westermeier ◽  
E. Penda ◽  
H. Mächel ◽  
K. Zimmermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Base ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Reference Interval ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Monthly Means ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Public ◽  
Data Centre ◽  
Recent Activity

Abstract. Germany's national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) is the responsible authority for monitoring climate change in Germany. To fulfill this task it operates the National Climate Data Centre ("Nationales KlimaDatenZentrum, NKDZ"). The historical and current instrumental measurements and visual observations of DWD's station network are archived, quality-controlled and used to provide aggregated products, as for example daily and monthly means or climate normals. Gridded data are generated and used to derive time series of national and regional averages. Phenological observations and radiosonde data are also part of the data base. In recent years, additional historical data have been digitized to expand the data base. The products are used for informing the public, e.g. as an element of the German climate atlas (http://www.deutscher-klimaatlas.de). One major recent activity was the provision of information for the new climatological reference interval 1981–2010 and an updated climatological analysis based on the newly digitized data.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

scholarly journals Flood Risk and Adaptation Strategies for Soybean Production Systems on the Flood-Prone Pampas under Climate Change

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1187
Author(s):  
Wouter Julius Smolenaars ◽  
Spyridon Paparrizos ◽  
Saskia Werners ◽  
Fulco Ludwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Soybean Production ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Sowing Season

In recent decades, multiple flood events have had a devastating impact on soybean production in Argentina. Recent advances suggest that the frequency and intensity of destructive flood events on the Argentinian Pampas will increase under pressure from climate change. This paper provides bottom-up insight into the flood risk for soybean production systems under climate change and the suitability of adaptation strategies in two of the most flood-prone areas of the Pampas region. The flood risk perceptions of soybean producers were explored through interviews, translated into climatic indicators and then studied using a multi-model climate data analysis. Soybean producers perceived the present flood risk for rural accessibility to be of the highest concern, especially during the harvest and sowing seasons when heavy machinery needs to reach soybean lots. An analysis of climatic change projections found a rising trend in annual and harvest precipitation and a slight drying trend during the sowing season. This indicates that the flood risk for harvest accessibility may increase under climate change. Several adaptation strategies were identified that can systemically address flood risks, but these require collaborative action and cannot be undertaken by individual producers. The results suggest that if cooperative adaptation efforts are not made in the short term, the continued increase in flood risk may force soybean producers in the case study locations to shift away from soybean towards more robust land uses.

scholarly journals Analysis of livestock breeders’ perceptions and their adaptation measures to climate change in Morocco‘s arid rangelands

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Wadii Snaibi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Eastern Morocco ◽  
Climate Analysis

AbstractThe high plateaus of eastern Morocco are already suffering from the adverse impacts of climate change (CC), as the local populations’ livelihoods depend mainly on extensive sheep farming and therefore on natural resources. This research identifies breeders’ perceptions about CC, examines whether they correspond to the recorded climate data and analyses endogenous adaptation practices taking into account the agroecological characteristics of the studied sites and the difference between breeders’ categories based on the size of owned sheep herd. Data on perceptions and adaptation were analyzed using the Chi-square independence and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Climate data were investigated through Mann-Kendall, Pettitt and Buishand tests.Herders’ perceptions are in line with the climate analysis in term of nature and direction of observed climate variations (downward trend in rainfall and upward in temperature). In addition, there is a significant difference in the adoption frequency of adaptive strategies between the studied agroecological sub-zones (χ2 = 14.525, p <.05) due to their contrasting biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, as well as among breeders’ categories (χ2 = 10.568, p < .05) which attributed mainly to the size of sheep flock. Policy options aimed to enhance local-level adaptation should formulate site-specific adaptation programs and prioritise the small-scale herders.

Regional biogeographical model of vegetation zones in doctoral programme Regional Biography in Olomouc (Case study for Norway spruce)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivo Machar ◽  
Marián Halás ◽  
Zdeněk Opršal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Vegetation Zones ◽  
Landscape Research

Regional climate changes impacts induce vegetation zones shift to higher altitudes in temperate landscape. This paper deals with applying of regional biogeography model of climate conditions for vegetation zones in Czechia to doctoral programme Regional Geography in Palacky University Olomouc. The model is based on general knowledge of landscape vegetation zonation. Climate data for model come from predicted validated climate database under RCP8.5 scenario since 2100. Ecological data are included in the Biogeography Register database (geobiocoenological data related to landscape for cadastral areas of the Czech Republic). Mathematical principles of modelling are based on set of software solutions with GIS. Students use the model in the frame of the course “Special Approaches to Landscape Research” not only for regional scenarios climate change impacts in landscape scale, but also for assessment of climate conditions for growing capability of agricultural crops or forest trees under climate change on regional level.

Advances in the data rescue and digitization of historical wind speed observations in Sweden: the WINDGUST project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Engström ◽  
Cesar Azorin-Molina ◽  
Lennart Wern ◽  
Sverker Hellström ◽  
Christophe Sturm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
The 1960S

&lt;p&gt;Here we present the progress of the first work package (WP1) of the project &amp;#8220;Assessing centennial wind speed variability from a historical weather data rescue project in Sweden&amp;#8221; (WINDGUST), funded by FORMAS &amp;#8211; A Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (ref. 2019-00509); previously introduced in EGU2019-17792-1 and EGU2020-3491. In a global climate change, one of the major uncertainties on the causes driving the climate variability of winds (i.e., the &amp;#8220;stilling&amp;#8221; phenomenon and the recent &amp;#8220;recovery&amp;#8221; since the 2010s) is mainly due to short availability (i.e., since the 1960s) and low quality of observed wind records as stated by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The WINDGUST is a joint initiative between the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the University of Gothenburg aimed at filling the key gap of short availability and low quality of wind datasets, and improve the limited knowledge on the causes driving wind speed variability in a changing climate across Sweden.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;During 2020, we worked in WP1 to rescue historical wind speed series available in the old weather archives at SMHI for the 1920s-1930s. In the process we followed the &amp;#8220;Guidelines on Best Practices for Climate Data Rescue&amp;#8221; of the World Meteorological Organization. Our protocol consisted on: (i) designing a template for digitization; (ii) digitizing papers by an imaging process based on scanning and photographs; and (iii) typing numbers of wind speed data into the template. We will report the advances and current status, challenges and experiences learned during the development of WP1. Until new year 2020/2021 eight out of thirteen selected stations spanning over the years 1925 to 1948 have been scanned and digitized by three staff members of SMHI during 1,660 manhours.&lt;/p&gt;

Modeling the response of non-perennial streams to climate change impact: The Bouregreg watershed in Morocco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Maria De Girolamo ◽  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Aboubdillah ◽  
Ali El Bilali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hybrid Modeling ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Stream Network ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Modeling Approach

&lt;p&gt;The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.&lt;/p&gt;

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