Same soil - different climate: crop model inter-comparison with lysimeter data of translocated monoliths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jannis Groh ◽  
Horst H. Gerke ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Crop Model ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Soil Ecosystem ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Crop Models

<p>Crop model comparisons have mostly been carried out to test predictive ability under previous climate conditions and for soils of the same location. However, the ability of individual agricultural models to predict the effects of changes in climatic conditions on soil-ecosystems beyond the range of site-specific variability is unknown. The objective of this study was to test the predictive ability of agroecosystem models using weighable lysimeter data for the same soil under changing climatic conditions and to compare simulated plant growth and soil-ecosystem response to climate change between these models. To achieve this, data from the TERENO-SOILCan lysimeters-network for a soil-ecosystem at the original site (Dedelow) and data from the lysimeters with Dedelow soil monoliths transferred to Bad Lauchstädt and Selhausen were analysed. The transfer of the soils took place to a drier and warmer location (Bad Lauchstädt) and to a warmer and wetter location (Selhausen) compared to the original location of the soils in Dedelow with the same crop rotation. After model calibration for data from the original Dedelow site, crop growth and soil water balances of transferred Dedelow soil monoliths were predicted using the site-specific boundary conditions and compared with the observations at Selhausen and Bad Lauchstädt. The overall simulation output of the models was separated into a plant-related part, ecosystem-productivity (grain yield, biomass, LAI) and an environmental part, ecosystem-fluxes (evapotranspiration, net-drainage, soil moisture). The results showed that when the soil was transferred to a drier region, the agronomic part of the crop models predicted well, and when the soil was moved to wetter regions, the environmental flow part of the models seemed to predict better. The results suggest that accounting for climate change scenarios, more consideration of soil properties and testing model performance for conditions outside the calibrated range and site-specific variability will help improve the models.</p>

Same soil - different climate: crop model inter-comparison with lysimeter data of translocated monoliths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jannis Groh ◽  
Horst H. Gerke ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Crop Model ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Soil Ecosystem ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Crop Models

<p>Crop model inter-comparisons have mostly been carried out to test the predictive ability under the past range of climatic conditions and for soils of the same site. Unknown is, however, the ability of individual crop models to predict effects of changes in climatic conditions on soil ecosystems beyond the range of site-specific variability. The objective of this study was to test the predictive ability of agro ecosystem models using weighable lysimeter data for the same soil under changed climatic conditions and to compare the simulated crop growth and soil-ecosystem response to climate change between these models. To achieve the objective, data were analyzed from the network of TERENO SOILCan lysimeters for a soil-ecosystem at the original site (Dedelow) and data from the lysimeters containing Dedelow soil monoliths that were transferred to Bad Lauchstädt and Selhausen. For Bad Lauchstädt, this transfer was to a drier and a warmer and for Selhausen to a warmer and wetter site as compared to the original location of the soils at Dedelow. Data time series from the cropped arable soil lysimeters included drier and wetter years and a site-specific crop rotation under comparable management conditions. Identical soil properties and crop growth and boundary conditions were provided for all models after a calibration for the original site at Dedelow, predictions were made for sites Selhausen and Bad Lauchstädt using boundary conditions from those sites. The overall simulation performance of the models was separated in a crop-related part, ecosystem productivity (grain yield, biomass, leaf area index) and in an environmental part, ecosystem fluxes (evapotranspiration, net drainage, soil moisture). When moving soil to a drier region, the crop models’ agronomic and environmental part were well predicted, when moving to wetter regions, only the environmental part of the models seemed to be well predicted. The results suggest considering climate change scenarios, more attention to soil properties and testing of model performance for conditions beyond the calibrated range and site-specific variability will help improving the models.</p>

Climate change risks to push large parts of global food production and population centres to unprecedented conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matti Kummu ◽  
Matias Heino ◽  
Maija Taka ◽  
Olli Varis ◽  
Daniel Viviroli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Production Areas ◽  
Global Food

<p>The majority of global food production, as we know it, is based on agricultural practices developed within stable Holocene climate conditions. Climate change is altering the key conditions for human societies, such as precipitation, temperature and aridity. Their combined impact on altering the conditions in areas where people live and grow food has not yet, however, been systematically quantified on a global scale. Here, we estimate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) on major population centres and food crop production areas at 5 arc-min scale (~10 km at equator) using Holdridge Life Zones (HLZs), a concept that incorporates all the aforementioned climatic characteristics. We found that if rapid growth of GHG emissions is not halted (RCP 8.5), in year 2070, one fifth of the major food production areas and one fourth of the global population centres would experience climate conditions beyond the ones where food is currently produced, and people are living. Our results thus reinforce the importance of following the RCP 2.6 path, as then only a small fraction of food production (5%) and population centres (6%) would face such unprecedented conditions. Several areas experiencing these unprecedented conditions also have low resilience, such as those within Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. In these countries over 75% of food production and population would experience unprecedented climatic conditions under RCP 8.5. These and many other hotspot areas require the most urgent attention to secure sustainable development and equity.</p>

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 684
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Juan Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pests ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including insects. Icerya aegyptiaca (Douglas) and I. purchasi Maskell are two polyphagous and invasive pests in the genus Icerya Signoret (Hemiptera: Monophlebidae) and cause serious damage to many landscape and economic trees. However, the global habitats suitable for these two Icerya species are unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the potentially suitable habitats of these two species, then to provide scientific management strategies. Using MaxEnt software, the potential risk maps of I. aegyptiaca and I. purchasi were created based on their occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors. The results suggested that under current climate conditions, the potentially habitable area of I. aegyptiaca would be much larger than the current distribution and there would be small changes for I. purchasi. In the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of these two insect species will display an increasing trend. Africa, South America and Asia would be more suitable for I. aegyptiaca. South America, Asia and Europe would be more suitable for I. purchasi. Moreover, most of the highly habitat suitability areas of I. aegyptiaca will become concentrated in Southern Asia. The results also suggested that “min temperature of coldest month” was the most important environmental factor affecting the prediction models of these two insects. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policies to manage and control these two invasive pests of the genus Icerya.

scholarly journals Assessment of SWAT spatial and temporal transferability for a high-altitude glacierized catchment

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 3219-3232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Andrianaki ◽  
Juna Shrestha ◽  
Florian Kobierska ◽  
Nikolaos P. Nikolaidis ◽  
Stefano M. Bernasconi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Watershed ◽  
Central Switzerland ◽  
Steep Terrain ◽  
Hydropower Reservoir ◽  
Geographical Characteristics

Abstract. In this study, we investigated the application and the transferability of the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a partly glacierized Alpine catchment characterized by extreme climatic conditions and steep terrain. The model was initially calibrated for the 10 km2 watershed of the Damma glacier Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) in central Switzerland using monitoring data for the period of 2009–2011 and then was evaluated for 2012–2013 in the same area. Model performance was found to be satisfactory against both the Nash–Sutcliffe criterion (NS) and a benchmark efficiency (BE). The transferability of the model was assessed by using the parameters calibrated on the small watershed and applying the model to the approximately 100 km2 catchment that drains into the hydropower reservoir of the Göscheneralpsee and includes the Damma glacier CZO. Model results were compared to the reservoir inflow data from 1997 to 2010 and it was found that the model predicted successfully snowmelt timing and autumn recession but could not accurately capture the peak flow for certain years. Runoff was slightly overestimated from late May to June, when it is dominated by snowmelt. Finally, we investigated the response of the greater catchment to climate change using three different climate change scenarios, and the results were compared to those of a previous study, where two different hydrological models, PREVAH and ALPINE3D, were used. The methodology presented here, where SWAT is calibrated for a small watershed and then applied for a bigger area with similar climatic conditions and geographical characteristics, could work even under extreme conditions like ours. However, greater attention should be given to the differences between glacier melt and snowmelt dynamics. In conclusion, this assessment test on the transferability of SWAT on different scales gave valuable information about the strengths and weaknesses of the model when it was applied under conditions different to those under which it was calibrated.

Testing the simulation skill of hydrological models under transient climate conditions for European case studies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernesto Pasten-Zapata ◽  
Paul Royer-Gaspard ◽  
Rafael Pimentel ◽  
Torben O. Sonnenborg ◽  
Anthony Lemoine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Climate Conditions

<p>Commonly, the analysis of climate change impacts on hydrology involves a series of steps that begin with a General Circulation Model followed by the application of a downscaling or bias correction method and then coupling the climate outputs to a hydrological model. Nevertheless, frequently the hydrological models employed in these analyses are not tested to assess their skill to simulate the hydrology of a catchment under changing climate regimes. We evaluate such skill by applying a Differential Split Sampling Test (DSST) using the available observations. The models are calibrated during the three most extreme dry (or wet) years and evaluated on the three most wet (or dry) years. The DSST is applied on three catchments located across Europe: Denmark, France and Spain. This spatial distribution allows us to evaluate the method on diverse climatic and hydrological regimes. Furthermore, the DSST is applied to three different models in each of the catchments and case-specific metrics are evaluated to determine the practical usefulness of the models. Based on the DSST results, we assign a weight to the hydrological models and drive them with six Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Models to assess climate change scenarios for the case-specific metrics. This methodology allows us to increase the confidence of our projections considering the hydrological model uncertainty for transient climatic conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

NeoBiota ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 129-160
Author(s):  
Anna Schertler ◽  
Wolfgang Rabitsch ◽  
Dietmar Moser ◽  
Johannes Wessely ◽  
Franz Essl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Myocastor Coypus ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Management Recommendations

The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

Improving sustainable cotton production through enhanced resilience to climate change using mutation breeding.

2021 ◽  
pp. 145-156
Author(s):  
Manzoor Hussain ◽  
Ljupcho Jankuloski ◽  
M. Habib-ur-Rahman ◽  
Massoud Malek ◽  
Md. Kamrul Islam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Heat Tolerance ◽  
Mutation Breeding ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Cotton Production ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
High Yields

Abstract Cotton, being a leading commercial fibre crop, is grown on 20.5 million hectares in three major cotton-producing countries: China, India and Pakistan. Wide differences in yield per hectare exist among these countries and these are being aggravated by changing climate conditions, i.e. higher temperatures and significant seasonal and regional fluctuation in rainfall. Pakistan is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The disastrous effects of extreme periods of heat stress in cotton were very prominent in Pakistan during the growing seasons 2013-2014 (40-50% fruit abortion) and 2016-2017 (33% shortfall), which posed an alarming threat to the cotton-based economy of Pakistan. Poor resilience of the most commonly grown cotton varieties against extreme periods of heat stress are considered to be major factors for this drastic downfall in cotton production in Pakistan. Using the approach of induced mutation breeding, the Nuclear Institute for Agriculture and Biology (NIAB), Faisalabad, Pakistan, has demonstrated its capabilities in developing cotton mutants that can tolerate the changed climatic conditions and sustain high yields under contrasting environments. The results of studies on the phenological and physiological traits conferring heat tolerance are presented here for thermo-tolerant cotton mutants (NIAB-878, NIAB-545, NIAB-1048, NIAB-444, NIAB-1089, NIAB-1064, NIAB-1042) relative to FH-142 and FH-Lalazar. NIAB-878 excelled in heat tolerance by maintaining the highest anther dehiscence (82%) and minimum cell injury percentage (39%) along with maximum stomatal conductance (27.7 mmol CO2/m2/s), transpiration rate (6.89 μmol H2O/m2/s), net photosynthetic rate (44.6 mmol CO2/m2/s) and physiological water use efficiency (6.81 mmol CO2/μmol H2O) under the prevailing high temperatures.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Tourist Climate Comfortable Period of China in a Changing Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Dan-Dan Yu ◽  
Shan Li ◽  
Zhong-Yang Guo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Changing Climate

The evaluation of climate comfort for tourism can provide information for tourists selecting destinations and tourism operators. Understanding how climate conditions for tourism evolve is increasingly important for strategic tourism planning, particularly in rapidly developing tourism markets like China in a changing climate. Multidimensional climate indices are needed to evaluate climate for tourism, and previous studies in China have used the much criticized “climate index” with low resolution climate data. This study uses the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and daily data from 775 weather stations to examine interregional differences in the tourist climate comfortable period (TCCP) across China and summarizes the spatiotemporal evolution of TCCP from 1981 to 2010 in a changing climate. Overall, most areas in China have an “excellent” climate for tourism, such that tourists may visit anytime with many choices available. The TCCP in most regions shows an increasing trend, and China benefits more from positive effects of climate change in climatic conditions for tourism, especially in spring and autumn. These results can provide some scientific evidence for understanding human settlement environmental constructions and further contribute in improving local or regional resilience responding to global climate change.

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