Analysis of tropical urban aquifers in response to climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang Su ◽  
Michele Lancia ◽  
Chunmiao Zheng ◽  
Kevin Hiscock
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Southern China ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Supply Source ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Transient Model ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Groundwater Budget

<p>Urban aquifers represent an undeveloped resource and utilization is also arising as a method to improve storm water management. In dry climate, these aquifers are an alternative water supply source and in tropical climate can mitigate waterlogging and floods. However, sources and pathways of urban groundwater are more numerous and complex than those in rural environments. Furthermore, climate change and more frequent and intense climate extremes increase the variability in precipitation, soil moisture, and surface water. Therefore, a long-term effective urban water management is imperative.</p><p>This study investigates the groundwater in Shenzhen, a major financial and high-tech center in southern China, along the left side of the Zhujiang Estuary (Pearl River Delta). Shenzhen has a population of about 14 million permanent residents and currently has a total water consumption of 2 billion m<sup>3</sup> per annum. Previous research has investigated the hydrogeological setting and groundwater budgets via numerical flow simulations under steady-state conditions. In the present research, a MODFLOW transient model has been constructed to estimate the groundwater budgets in Shenzhen in response to projected climate change.</p><p>Model conditions are varied, considering the typical Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) from 2019 to 2049. Simulations are grouped into two numerical analyses. For the first analysis, the rainfall rate decreases by 37.4% (RCP2.6, RCP4.5) together with a sea-level increment of 0.36 m (RCP 4.5); for the second analysis rainfall increases by 11.82% (RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) and a sea-level increment of 0.5 m (RCP 8.5).</p><p>In the first analysis (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5) the groundwater budget decreases by approximately 26% within the study domain, and the water table declines from 1 to 26 m. The second analysis shows a 15.48% increase in the groundwater budget, as the water level rises on average from 0.5 to 8 m. Given the sensitivity of the model results to the choice of future climate scenario, this study indicates the importance of accurate climate change predictions to help local authorities better manage water resources in tropical urban aquifers.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the extreme risk of coastal inundation due to climate change: A case study of Rongcheng, China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiqing Feng ◽  
Jiangbo Gao ◽  
Shaohong Wu ◽  
Yanzhong Li ◽  
Xiliu Yue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Extreme Risk ◽  
Extreme Flood

Abstract. Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. Given the ongoing climate change, this study explored the risk of future sea-level rise on the extreme inundation by combining P-III model and losses assessment model. Taking Rongcheng as a case study, the integrated risk of extreme water levels was assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios of 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicated that the increase in total direct losses would reach an average of 60 % in 2100 as a 0.82 m sea-level rise under RCP 8.5. In addition, affected population would be increased by 4.95 % to 13.87 % and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would be increased by 3.66 % to 10.95 % in 2050 while the augment of affected population and GDP in 2100 would be as twice as in 2050. Residential land and farmland would be under greater flooding risk in terms of the higher exposure and losses than other land-use types. Moreover, this study indicated that sea-level rise shortened the recurrence period of extreme water levels significantly and extreme events would become common. Consequently, the increase in frequency and possible losses of extreme flood events suggested that sea-level rise was very likely to exacerbate the extreme risk of coastal zone in future.

scholarly journals 37 years of Common Tern Sterna hirundo breeding at Sečovlje Salina

Acrocephalus ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (180-181) ◽  
pp. 105-112
Author(s):  
Iztok Škornik
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Breeding Population ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Common Tern ◽  
Nesting Sites ◽  
The Common ◽  
First Time ◽  
Positive Effect

AbstractYears ago, the Common Tern Sterna hirundo was known to nest in Slovenia along larger watercourses. Today it only breeds locally in artificially built nesting areas. On the seashore, its nesting was confirmed for the first time in 1983, when 9 pairs bred in the Sečovlje Saltpans. In the same year, we started mapping the breeders in the Sečovlje Saltpans, which has continued till this very day. Since 2010, we have been systematically collecting data on the number of fledged birds. In 1991, the number of breeding pairs increased, which coincides with the increase in other parts of the Mediterranean. Since 1991, the size of the breeding population has been quite stable, ranging from 30 to 70 pairs. The Common Tern’s breeding success in the Sečovlje Saltpans is poor, mainly due to precipitation (40% of all unsuccessful nests) and predation (35%). Long, dry periods without rainfall have a positive effect on the hatching and fledging success. Appropriate water management, artificial islands and access to nesting sites control can prevent the disturbance caused by visitors and, in part, predators such as foxes and martens. At the Sečovlje Saltpans, the Common Tern’s survival depends entirely on the active management. The expected climate change, with increasing sea level rise and consequently more frequent flooding of low-lying areas, further aggravates its existence and survival in the Sečovlje Saltpans.

scholarly journals Sea level rise scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City in the context of the climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 184-191
Author(s):  
Tuan Ngoc Le ◽  
Thinh Nam Ngo ◽  
Phung Ky Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Water Level Data ◽  
Local Water ◽  
Important Basis

This work aimed to develope sea level rise (SLR) scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) to 2100, corresponding to the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 and the approach mentioned in the AR5 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) through SIMCLIM software, and the local water level data (updated to 2015). The results showed that the SLR in the coastal area of HCMC increased gradually over the years as well as the increase in greenhouse gas scenarios. In the period of 2025-2030, SLR would increase relatively equally among RCP scenarios. SLR in 2030 would increase about 12cm as compared to sea level in the period of 1986-2005 in all RCP scenarios. By 2050, the average SLR for the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 would be 21 cm, 21 cm, 22 cm, and 25 cm, respectively. The corresponding figures for 2100 would bee 43 cm, 52 cm, 54 cm, and 72 cm, respectively. The research results provide an important basis for calculations and assessments of impact and vulnerability due to the climate change to socio-economic development in HCMC.

scholarly journals Does Future Climate Bring Greater Streamflow Simulated by the HSPF Model to South Korea?

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1884
Author(s):  
Jihoon Park ◽  
Euntae Jung ◽  
Imgook Jung ◽  
Jaepil Cho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Relative Change ◽  
The Impact

Evaluating the impact of climate change on water resources is necessary for improving water resource management and adaptation measures at the watershed level. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on streamflow in South Korea using downscaled climate change information based on the global climate model (GCM) and hydrological simulation program–FORTRAN model. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 were employed in this study. During the distant future (2071–2099), the flow increased by 15.11% and 24.40% for RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2, respectively. The flow is highly dependent on precipitation and evapotranspiration. Both precipitation and evapotranspiration increased, but the relative change of precipitation was greater than the relative change of evapotranspiration. For this reason, the flow would show a significant increase. Additionally, for RCP 8.5 W/m2, the variability of the flow according to the GCM also increased because the variability of precipitation increased. Moreover, for RCP 8.5 W/m2, the summer and autumn flow increased significantly, and the winter flow decreased in both scenarios. The variability in autumn and winter was so great that the occurrence of extreme flow could intensify further. These projections indicated the possibility of future flooding and drought in summer and winter. Regionally, the flow was expected to show a significant increase in the southeastern region. The findings presented for South Korea could be used as primary data in establishing national climate change adaptation measures.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Hydrologic Risk of n-Year Floods According to RCP Scenarios

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1805
Author(s):  
Jin-Young Lee ◽  
Ho-Jun Son ◽  
Dongwook Kim ◽  
Jae-Hee Ryu ◽  
Tae-Woong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Nakdong River

Recent climate change has brought about irregular rainfall patterns along with an increased frequency of heavy rainfall, and flood damage in Korea is increasing accordingly. The increased rainfall amount and intensity during the rainy season lead to flood damage on a massive scale every year in Korea. In order to reduce such flood damage and secure the stability of hydraulic structures, evaluation of hydrologic risk corresponding to design floods is necessary. As Korea’s current climate change scenarios are generally applied to mid-sized watersheds, there is no practical application method to calculate the hydrologic risk of local floods corresponding to various future climate change scenarios. Using the design flood prediction model, this study evaluated the hydrologic risks of n-year floods according to 13 climate change scenarios. The representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario resulted in the 100-year floods increasing 134.56% on average, and 132.30% in the Han River, 132.81% in the Nakdong River, 142.42% in the Gum River, and 135.47% in the Seomjin-Youngsan River basin, compared with the RCP 4.5. The 100-year floods at the end of the 21st century increased by +3% and +13% according to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The corresponding hydrologic flood risk increased by 0.53% and 8.68% on average according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, compared with the current level of hydrologic risk of a 100-year flood.

scholarly journals Modeling Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Availability Using SWAT Model in a Semi-Arid Basin: Case of El Kalb River, Lebanon

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 134
Author(s):  
Jad Saade ◽  
Maya Atieh ◽  
Sophia Ghanimeh ◽  
Golmar Golmohammadi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Satisfactory Precision ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow is crucial for depicting the vulnerability of water resources and for identifying proper adaptation measures. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the impact of climate change on the streamflow of El Kalb river, a major perennial river in Lebanon. The model performance was tested for monthly flow at two stations under a nine-year calibration period (2003–2011) and a four-year validation period (2012–2015). The model results indicated satisfactory precision in fitting observed and simulated flow using various acceptable statistical indices. Future projections of climate change were obtained for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). The model indicated that the average annual discharge of El Kalb River in the near future (2021–2040) will decrease by around 28–29% under the three RCP scenarios. End-of-century projections (2081–2100) indicated that the flow will decrease by 23%, 28%, and 45% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively.

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 3642-3661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erfu Dai ◽  
Zhuo Wu ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Weimin Xi ◽  
Xiaofan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Aboveground Biomass ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Forest Distribution

scholarly journals Hydro- and Morphodynamic Impacts of Sea Level Rise: The Minho Estuary Case Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 441
Author(s):  
Willian Melo ◽  
José Pinho ◽  
Isabel Iglesias ◽  
Ana Bio ◽  
Paulo Avilez-Valente ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Numerical Modelling ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
River Mouth ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Minho Estuary

The understanding and anticipating of climate change impacts is one of the greatest challenges for humanity. It is already known that, until the end of the 21st century, the mean sea level (MSL) will rise at a global scale, but its effects at the local scale need to be further analyzed. In this context, a numerical modelling tool and a methodological approach for the river Minho estuary (NW of the Iberian Peninsula) are presented, to predict possible consequences of local MSL rise, considering the greenhouse emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Hydrodynamic and morphodynamic impacts were analyzed considering several driving factors, such as tides, sea level rise, storm surge, wave set-up, and different river flood peak discharges, taking into account their probabilities of occurrence. The model was calibrated using in-situ data and a data assimilation tool, the OpenDA, which automates this process, allowing to reach reliable results in a considerably short time when compared with traditional techniques. The results forecast that the predicted MSL rise will reduce the flow velocity magnitude and the sediment transport into the coastal platform but will aggravate the inundation risks along the estuarine banks. In the worst scenario (RCP 8.5) the water level near the river mouth of the estuary is expected to rise 0.20 m for 50 years return period ocean water rising, and 0.60 m for 100 years return period. It was also possible to identify that floods are the most important driver for the sediment transport along the estuary, while the tide effect in the morphodynamics is restricted to the downstream estuarine region. This work demonstrated the importance of the numerical modelling tools to better understand the effects of climate change at local scales through the representation of the estuarine hydrodynamic pattern evolution for future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals CLIMATE CHANGE AND UKRAINIAN CITIES: MANIFESTATIONS AND PROJECTIONS ON 21st CENTURY BASED ON RCP-SCENARIOS

2019 ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
O. Shevchenko ◽  
S. Snizhko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Modern Period ◽  
Climatic Period ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Mean

The features of the manifestation of climate change in the cities of Ukraine are investigated. It has been established that over the past decades mean annual air temperature in big cities has increased on 0.7–1.2°С, compare to the normal climatic period (1961–1990). The most significant increase in the mean monthly air temperature in the modern period in Ukrainian cities was recorded in January and in the summer months. An increase in the recurrence of tropical nights (when the air temperature did not drop below 20.0°C) and heat waves (HW) was revealed. In all studied cities located in different regions of Ukraine (with the exception of Kharkiv and Kyiv), the number of HW cases in the modern period (1991–2015) has increased two or more times compared with 1961–1990. The most vulnerable in the modern period to the effects of HW are the cities of the southern regions of Ukraine. No HW cases were recorded in Odessa during the period 1961–1990, and 14 cases have been identified in the modern period; the frequency of HW in Zaporizhzhya and Kherson increased from 3 to 22 cases. A change was found in the distribution of precipitation over the seasons and the nature of their precipitation: with a decrease in the number of cases of precipitation, their intensity increases. Based on RCP-scenarios, projections of air temperature for the studied cities were made until the end of the 21st century. According to the calculations for all scenarios, the average annual air temperature will increase gradually in all regions and cities of Ukraine and will increase on average from 2.0–2.5°C in the low-end scenario (RCP 4.5) to 5.0–6.0°C in the high-end scenario (RCP 8.5). Thus, the results of the study indicate the need to analyze the vulnerability of Ukrainian cities to climate change and can be used both to carry out such assessment and to develop measures and plans for adaptation to climate change.

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