Modeling Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Availability Using SWAT Model in a Semi-Arid Basin: Case of El Kalb River, Lebanon

Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow is crucial for depicting the vulnerability of water resources and for identifying proper adaptation measures. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the impact of climate change on the streamflow of El Kalb river, a major perennial river in Lebanon. The model performance was tested for monthly flow at two stations under a nine-year calibration period (2003–2011) and a four-year validation period (2012–2015). The model results indicated satisfactory precision in fitting observed and simulated flow using various acceptable statistical indices. Future projections of climate change were obtained for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). The model indicated that the average annual discharge of El Kalb River in the near future (2021–2040) will decrease by around 28–29% under the three RCP scenarios. End-of-century projections (2081–2100) indicated that the flow will decrease by 23%, 28%, and 45% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively.

Download Full-text

Does Future Climate Bring Greater Streamflow Simulated by the HSPF Model to South Korea?

Water ◽

10.3390/w12071884 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 1884

Author(s):

Jihoon Park ◽

Euntae Jung ◽

Imgook Jung ◽

Jaepil Cho

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South Korea ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Relative Change ◽

The Impact

Evaluating the impact of climate change on water resources is necessary for improving water resource management and adaptation measures at the watershed level. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on streamflow in South Korea using downscaled climate change information based on the global climate model (GCM) and hydrological simulation program–FORTRAN model. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 were employed in this study. During the distant future (2071–2099), the flow increased by 15.11% and 24.40% for RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2, respectively. The flow is highly dependent on precipitation and evapotranspiration. Both precipitation and evapotranspiration increased, but the relative change of precipitation was greater than the relative change of evapotranspiration. For this reason, the flow would show a significant increase. Additionally, for RCP 8.5 W/m2, the variability of the flow according to the GCM also increased because the variability of precipitation increased. Moreover, for RCP 8.5 W/m2, the summer and autumn flow increased significantly, and the winter flow decreased in both scenarios. The variability in autumn and winter was so great that the occurrence of extreme flow could intensify further. These projections indicated the possibility of future flooding and drought in summer and winter. Regionally, the flow was expected to show a significant increase in the southeastern region. The findings presented for South Korea could be used as primary data in establishing national climate change adaptation measures.

Download Full-text

Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Sediment Yield from the Logiya Watershed, Lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology6030081 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 81

Author(s):

Nura Boru Jilo ◽

Bogale Gebremariam ◽

Arus Edo Harka ◽

Gezahegn Weldu Woldemariam ◽

Fiseha Behulu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sediment Yield ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Model Performance ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Time Frames ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

It is anticipated that climate change will impact sediment yield in watersheds. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of climate change on sediment yield from the Logiya watershed in the lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Here, we used the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa data outputs of Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Future scenarios of climate change were analyzed in two-time frames: 2020–2049 (2030s) and 2050–2079 (2060s). Both time frames were analyzed using both RCP scenarios from the baseline period (1971–2000). A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was constructed to simulate the hydrological and the sedimentological responses to climate change. The model performance was calibrated and validated using the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS). The results of the calibration and the validation of the sediment yield R2, NSE, and PBIAS were 0.83, 0.79, and −23.4 and 0.85, 0.76, and −25.0, respectively. The results of downscaled precipitation, temperature, and estimated evapotranspiration increased in both emission scenarios. These climate variable increments were expected to result in intensifications in the mean annual sediment yield of 4.42% and 8.08% for RCP4.5 and 7.19% and 10.79% for RCP8.5 by the 2030s and the 2060s, respectively.

Download Full-text

Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13137120 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (13) ◽

pp. 7120

Author(s):

Alberto Martínez-Salvador ◽

Agustín Millares ◽

Joris P. C. Eekhout ◽

Carmelo Conesa-García

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Historical Period ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Impact ◽

Semi Arid

This research studies the effect of climate change on the hydrological behavior of two semi-arid basins. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used with the simulation of two future climate change scenarios, one Representative Concentration Pathway moderate (RCP 4.5) and the other extreme (RCP 8.5). Three future periods were considered: close (2019–2040), medium (2041–2070), and distant (2071–2100). In addition, several climatic projections of the EURO-CORDEX model were selected, to which different bias correction methods were applied before incorporation into the SWAT model. The statistical indices for the monthly flow simulations showed a very good fit in the calibration and validation phases in the Upper Mula stream (NS = 0.79–0.87; PBIAS = −4.00–0.70%; RSR = 0.44–0.46) and the ephemeral Algeciras stream (NS = 0.78–0.82; PBIAS = −8.10–−8.20%; RSR = 0.4–0.42). Subsequently, the impact of climate change in both basins was evaluated by comparing future flows with those of the historical period. In the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by the end of the 2071–2100 period, the flows of the Upper Mula stream and the ephemeral Algeciras stream will have decreased by between 46.3% and 52.4% and between 46.6% and 55.8%, respectively.

Download Full-text

Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in Kon – Ha Thanh River Watershed, Vietnam

10.29007/1hrc ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Ngoc Duong Vo ◽

Thanh Hao Nguyen ◽

Huy Cong Vu ◽

Philippe Gourbesville ◽

Quang Binh Nguyen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Well Being ◽

Complex Problem ◽

Protection Measures ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Climate change is a complex problem and becoming the leading challenge for humankind in the 21st century. It will affect almost aspects of human well-being. Therefore, assessing climate change impacts on water resources and proposed solutions to respond to climate change is urgent and necessary. This study applied the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and GIS (Geographic Information System) technique to simulate water flows due to the impact of climate change. The models were applied for Kon – Ha Thanh river catchment, located in Vietnam where is considered as one of the countries most affected by climate change. The SWAT model is calibrated and validated well using daily flow data with the Nash-Sutcliffe and correlation coefficients are 0.77 and 0.88, respectively. Two scenarios from Vietnamese government (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used to analyze the variation of stream flow in three periods: 2016- 2035, 2045-2065, and 2080-2100. The results show that the flow in Kon – Ha Thanh rivers will vary complicatedly and severely under the impact of climate change. This flow may increase roughly 150.8% in flood season and reduce around 11.8% in dry season. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates that there are the changes in the flood dynamics as well as the hydrological shift of this region. This study presents an operational approach to integrate the results from the impacts of climate change to flood protection measures that would be useful in sustainable planning and devising resilience strategies.

Download Full-text

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Water ◽

10.3390/w12010271 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 271 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Ameer Muhammad ◽

Grey R. Evenson ◽

Fisaha Unduche ◽

Tricia A. Stadnyk

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Prairie Pothole Region ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Prairie Pothole ◽

Time Step ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is known for its hydrologically complex landscape with a large number of pothole wetlands. However, most watershed-scale hydrologic models that are applied in this region are incapable of representing the dynamic nature of contributing area and fill-spill processes affected by pothole wetlands. The inability to simulate these processes represents a critical limitation for operators and flood forecasters and may hinder the management of large reservoirs. We used a modified version of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model capable of simulating the dynamics of variable contributing areas and fill-spill processes to assess the impact of climate change on upstream inflows into the Shellmouth reservoir (also called Lake of the Prairie), which is an important reservoir built to provide multiple purposes, including flood and drought mitigation. We calibrated our modified SWAT model at a daily time step using SUFI-2 algorithm within SWAT-CUP for the period 1991–2000 and validated for 2005–2014, which gave acceptable performance statistics for both the calibration (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = −13.5) and validation (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = 21.5) periods. We then forced the calibrated model with future climate projections using representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 4.5, 8.5) for the near (2011–2040) and middle futures (2041–2070) of multiple regional climate models (RCMs). Our modeling results suggest that climate change will lead to a two-fold increase in winter streamflow, a slight increase in summer flow, and decrease spring peak flows into the Shellmouth reservoir. Investigating the impact of climate change on the operation of the Shellmouth reservoir is critically important because climate change could present significant challenges to the operation and management of the reservoir.

Download Full-text

Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽

10.3390/w13111548 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 1548

Author(s):

Suresh Marahatta ◽

Deepak Aryal ◽

Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽

Utsav Bhattarai ◽

Dibesh Shrestha

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Climate Models ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Data ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact ◽

Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

Download Full-text

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

La Houille Blanche ◽

10.1051/lhb/2018010 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 70-79 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Le Viet Thang ◽

Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽

Ho Long Phi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Quality ◽

River Basin ◽

Sediment Load ◽

Swat Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Nutrient Load ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

Download Full-text

Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Nam Ou Basin, Lao PDR

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-9-3339-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 3339-3384

Author(s):

B. Shrestha ◽

M. S. Babel ◽

S. Maskey ◽

A. van Griensven ◽

S. Uhlenbrook ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sediment Yield ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Lao Pdr ◽

Sediment Flux ◽

Monthly Precipitation ◽

Sediment Yields ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou Basin located in Northern Laos. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Future precipitation and temperature series are constructed through a delta change approach. As per the results, in general, temperature as well as precipitation show increasing trends in both scenarios, A2 and B2. However, monthly precipitation shows both increasing and decreasing trends. The simulation results exhibit that the wet and dry seasonal and annual stream discharges are likely to increase (by up to 15, 17 and 14% under scenario A2; and 11, 5 and 10% under scenario B2 respectively) in the future, which will lead to increased wet and dry seasonal and annual sediment yields (by up to 39, 28 and 36% under scenario A2; and 23, 12 and 22% under scenario B2 respectively). A higher discharge and more sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the changes, percentage-wise, are observed to be higher during the dry months. In conclusion, the sediment yield from the Nam Ou Basin is likely to increase with climate change, which strongly suggests the need for basin-wide sediment management strategies in order to reduce the negative impact of this change.

Download Full-text

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2012.035 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 207-224 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽

Tadashi Suetsugi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

River Catchment ◽

Calibration And Validation ◽

Daily Streamflow ◽

The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

Download Full-text

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2018.211 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 657-671 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Mirko Knežević ◽

Ljubomir Zivotić ◽

Nataša Čereković ◽

Ana Topalović ◽

Nikola Koković ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Yield Reduction ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Viable Solution ◽

The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

Download Full-text