A global attribution study on historical heat-related mortality impacts attributed to climate change.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Maria Vicedo Cabrera ◽  
Francesco Sera ◽  
Rochelle Schneider dos Santos ◽  
Aurelio Tobias ◽  
Christopher Astrom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Research Network ◽  
Considerable Proportion ◽  
Anthropogenic Influences ◽  
Excess Heat ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Related Mortality

<p>On behalf of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network.</p><p>Background & Aim: Climate change is considered the most important environmental threat to human health. Substantial mortality and morbidity burden have been directly or indirectly attributed to climate-sensitive environmental stressors. However, limited quantitative evidence exists on how much of this burden can be attributed to man-made influences on climate. In this large health attribution study, we aimed at quantifying the proportion of excess heat-related mortality attributed to anthropogenic climate change in recent decades across 626 locations across 41 countries in various regions of the world included in MCC database.</p><p>Methods: We first estimated the location-specific heat-mortality associations through two-stage time-series analyses with quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models and multivariate multilevel meta-regression using observed data. We then quantified the heat-related excess mortality in each location using daily modelled series derived from historical (factual) and preindustrial control (counterfactual) simulations from 5 general circulation models (ISIMIP2b database) in the period between 1991 and 2019. We finally computed the proportion of heat-related excess mortality attributable to anthropogenic influences as the difference between the two scenarios, with associated measures of uncertainty.</p><p>Results: We found a steep increase in level of warming, expressed as the difference in annual average temperature between scenarios, with an average increase of 1.0°C (from 0.7°C  to 1.2°C) across the 626 locations between 1991 and 2019. Overall excess heat-mortality fractions of 1.92% [95% confidence interval: 0.41, 3.25] and 1.28% [0.20, 2.50] were estimated under the factual and counterfactual scenarios, respectively, with an overall difference of 0.76% [0.25,1.74]. This translates to 33% of historical heat-excess mortality that can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Larger proportions were found in North America (46%), Central America (47%), South America (43%), South Africa (48%), Middle-East Asia (61%), South East-Asia (50%) and Australia (42%), although highly imprecise in most of cases.</p><p>Conclusions: Our findings suggest that current warming driven by anthropogenic influences is already responsible for a considerable proportion of the heat-related mortality burden. These results stress the importance of strengthening current mitigation strategies to reduce further warming of the planet and related health impacts.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Croatia

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Ivan Cipin ◽  
Dario Mustac ◽  
Petra Medjimurec
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Poisson Regression Model ◽  
Decomposition Techniques ◽  
Expected Number ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Age And Sex ◽  
Related Mortality

The main goal of this paper is to assess the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Croatia. We estimate two effects of the pandemic on mortality: (1) excess mortality during 2020 and (2) the age- and cause-specific components of life expectancy decline in 2020. We calculate excess mortality in 2020 as the difference between the registered number of deaths in 2020 and the expected number of deaths from a Poisson regression model based on weekly death counts and population exposures by age and sex from 2016 to 2019. Using decomposition techniques, we estimate age- and cause-specific components (distinguishing COVID-19-related deaths from deaths from other causes) of life expectancy decline in 2020. Our results show that excess mortality in 2020 almost entirely results from the second, autumn-winter wave of the epidemic in Croatia. Expectedly, we find the highest excess in deaths in older age groups. In Croatia, life expectancy in 2020 fell by almost eight months for men and about seven months for women. This decline is mostly attributable to COVID-19-related mortality in older ages, especially among men.

scholarly journals Brief communication: Do 1.0 °C, 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C matter for the future evolution of Alpine glaciers?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Loris Compagno ◽  
Sarah Eggs ◽  
Matthias Huss ◽  
Harry Zekollari ◽  
Daniel Farinotti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Global Average ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. With the Paris Agreement, the urgency of limiting ongoing anthropogenic climate change has been recognized. More recent discussions have focused on the difference of limiting the increase in global average temperatures below 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. Here, we assess the impacts that such different scenarios would have on both the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps and the water resources they provide. Our results show that the different temperature targets 5 have important implications for the changes predicted until 2100, and that glaciers might start recovering after the end of the 21st century.

Paradox Negative Effects of the mid-Pliocene Warming on the Climatic Suitability of Six Mediterranean Sandfly Species in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 141-156
Author(s):  
Attila J. Trájer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Mediterranean Species ◽  
East Mediterranean ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference

The Pliocene era could be the last time when sandfly (Diptera: Psychodidae) species were widespread in Europe. Within the Pliocene, the mid-Pliocene period is an important model period in the investigation of the future effects of anthropogenic climate change. In this study, the mid-Pliocene potential distribution of six Mediterranean sandfly species was modelled based on the M2 mid-Pliocene cold and mid-Pliocene warm paleoclimatic reconstructions. It was found that the cold period’s potential occurrence of sandfly species could be notably more extended than the distribution of the taxa in the warm period. The difference is less expressed in the case of the West Mediterranean species, but it is particularly visible in the circum-Mediterranean and East Mediterranean taxa. It can be concluded that not the changes in the mean annual temperature, but the increase of the precipitation patterns and the wetter climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period resulted in the observed differences. The results imply that the use of mid-Pliocene warming as a model of the present climatic changes can be handled with caution in the performing of biogeographic proxies for vector sandflies related to the anthropogenic climate change.

Analog European Heat Waves for U.S. Cities to Analyze Impacts on Heat-Related Mortality

2008 ◽  
Vol 89 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence S. Kalkstein ◽  
J. Scott Greene ◽  
David M. Mills ◽  
Alan D. Perrin ◽  
Jason P. Samenow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Excess Heat ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Related Mortality

Europe experienced an unprecedented excessive heat event (EHE) in 2003, raising the question: What if a similar EHE were experienced in U.S. cities? This study used an airmass-based meteorological method to develop analogs to the 2003 European EHE for five U.S. cities: Detroit, New York, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Washington, D.C.; and calculated the potential excess mortality for these analogs. Analogs capture the 2003 EHEs characteristics by determining daily deviations from long-term averages for meteorological variables in Paris, France, expressed as a multiple of the standard deviation for each variable s long-term average. The 2003 daily multiples of the standard deviation measured in Paris for 12 meteorological variables, and daily maximum and minimum temperatures, were transferred to each U.S. city, and multiplied by the corresponding standard deviation calculated for each variable, to produce analog meteorological variables. With these data, an airmass calendar for each city was developed, and excess mortality was calculated using existing city-specific airmass algorithms. Results show the analog EHEs breaking all-time records for maximum and high minimum temperatures in all five cities. Excess heat-related mortality for the analog summer is 2 to over 7 times the long-term average, with New York showing the greatest increases. In all cities, calculated excess heat-related mortality for the analog summer exceeds the hottest recorded summer in 35 yr. These study results could be valuable for public health planning and a wide range of additional reliability or sensitivity analyses.

Political Preferences, Personality Traits, and Environmentalism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Soutter ◽  
René Mõttus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Environmental Attitudes ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Party Voting

Although the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change continues to grow, public discourse still reflects a high level of scepticism and political polarisation towards anthropogenic climate change. In this study (N = 499) we attempted to replicate and expand upon an earlier finding that environmental terminology (“climate change” versus “global warming”) could partly explain political polarisation in environmental scepticism (Schuldt, Konrath, & Schwarz, 2011). Participants completed a series of online questionnaires assessing personality traits, political preferences, belief in environmental phenomenon, and various pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours. Those with a Conservative political orientation and/or party voting believed less in both climate change and global warming compared to those with a Liberal orientation and/or party voting. Furthermore, there was an interaction between continuously measured political orientation, but not party voting, and question wording on beliefs in environmental phenomena. Personality traits did not confound these effects. Furthermore, continuously measured political orientation was associated with pro-environmental attitudes, after controlling for personality traits, age, gender, area lived in, income, and education. The personality domains of Openness, and Conscientiousness, were consistently associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours, whereas Agreeableness was associated with pro-environmental attitudes but not with behaviours. This study highlights the importance of examining personality traits and political preferences together and suggests ways in which policy interventions can best be optimised to account for these individual differences.

Characteristics of Asian Mosquito Saliva Allergens for Specific Diagnoses and Effective Therapies

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soung-Hoo Jeon
Keyword(s):  
Allergic Reaction ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Diagnosis And Treatment ◽  
Recombinant Allergens ◽  
Systemic Reactions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Mosquito Saliva ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Future Direction

An allergic reaction to mosquitoes can result in severe or abnormal local or systemic reactions such as anaphylaxis, angioedema, and general urticarial or wheezing. The aim of this review is to provide information on mosquito saliva allergens that can support the production of highly specific recombinant saliva allergens. In particular, candidate allergens of mosquitoes that are well suited to the ecology of mosquitoes that occur mainly in East Asia will be identified and introduced. By doing so, the diagnosis and treatment of patients with severe sensitivity to mosquito allergy will be improved by predicting the characteristics of East Asian mosquito allergy, presenting the future direction of production of recombinant allergens, and understanding the difference between East and West.

scholarly journals The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera ◽  
N. Scovronick ◽  
F. Sera ◽  
D. Royé ◽  
R. Schneider ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Related Mortality

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽  
Haireti Alifu ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.

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