scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Croatia

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Ivan Cipin ◽  
Dario Mustac ◽  
Petra Medjimurec

The main goal of this paper is to assess the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Croatia. We estimate two effects of the pandemic on mortality: (1) excess mortality during 2020 and (2) the age- and cause-specific components of life expectancy decline in 2020. We calculate excess mortality in 2020 as the difference between the registered number of deaths in 2020 and the expected number of deaths from a Poisson regression model based on weekly death counts and population exposures by age and sex from 2016 to 2019. Using decomposition techniques, we estimate age- and cause-specific components (distinguishing COVID-19-related deaths from deaths from other causes) of life expectancy decline in 2020. Our results show that excess mortality in 2020 almost entirely results from the second, autumn-winter wave of the epidemic in Croatia. Expectedly, we find the highest excess in deaths in older age groups. In Croatia, life expectancy in 2020 fell by almost eight months for men and about seven months for women. This decline is mostly attributable to COVID-19-related mortality in older ages, especially among men.

Author(s):  
Karin Modig ◽  
Marcus Ebeling

Objectives: Mortality from Covid-19 is monitored in detail both within as well as between countries with different strategies against the virus. However, death counts and relative risks based on crude numbers can be misleading. Instead, age specific death rates should be used for comparability. Given the difficulty of ascertainment of Covid-19 specific deaths, excess all-cause mortality is currently more appropriate for comparisons. By estimating age- and sex-specific death rates we aim to get more accurate estimates of the excess mortality attributed to Covid-19, as well as the difference between men and women in Sweden. Design: We make use of Swedish register data about total weekly deaths, total population at risk, and estimate age- and sex-specific weekly death rates for 2020 and the 5 previous years. The data is provided by Statistics Sweden. Results: From the first week of April and onwards, the death rates at all ages above 60 are higher than those in previous years in Sweden. Persons above age 80 are dis-proportionally more affected, and men suffer higher levels of excess mortality than women at all ages with 75% higher death rates for males and 50% higher for females. Current excess mortality corresponds to a decline in remaining life expectancy of 3 years for men and 2 years for women. Conclusion: The Covid-19 pandemic has so far had a clear and consistent effect on total mortality in Sweden, with male death rates being comparably more affected. What consequences the pandemic will eventually have on mortality and life expectancy will depend on the progression of the pandemic, the extent that some of the deaths would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic, only somewhat later, the consequences for other health conditions, as well as the health care sector at large.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Th. Waaler

<strong><span style="font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;"><span style="font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;"><p align="left"> </p></span></span><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;">SAMMENDRAG</span></span></strong><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"><p align="left">Forventet levealder for kvinner er ca. 6 år lenger enn for menn, en forskjell som svarer til en livsvarig</p><p align="left">dobbel dødelighet for menn. Ratioen mellom kvinners og menns forventede levealder var konstant fra</p><p align="left">1840 til 1950. I de siste 50 år har ratioen økt betydelig og varierende med alderen. De siste ti årene har</p><p align="left">igjen ratioen vært fallende. I NOU 13:1999 om Kvinners helse i Norge framheves en langvarig diskriminering</p><p align="left">mot kvinner i forskning og i helsetjenestens møte med kvinner som et problem. Hvis det er</p><p align="left">riktig så kan man neppe si at det har gitt mennene en fordel mht. helse.</p><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"><p align="left">Waaler HT.</p></span></span></span><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"><p align="left"> </p></span></span><p align="left"><strong><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;">The excess mortality of men in Norway</span></span></strong><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;">. </span></span><em><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-ItalicMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-ItalicMT;">Nor J Epidemiol </span></span></em><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;">1999; </span></span><strong><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;">9 </span></span></strong><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;">(2): 97-100.</span></span></p><strong><span style="font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;"><span style="font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;"><p align="left"> </p></span></span><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPS-BoldMT;">ENGLISH SUMMARY</span></span></strong><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"><p align="left">The excess mortality of men has been observed for a long time and figures are presented from Norway</p><p align="left">since 1850. The ratio between females and males as to life expectancy was rather constant from the</p><p align="left">middle of the last century up to about 1950. For the last 50 years the ratio has increased conciderably</p><p align="left">and differently for the varying age groups. A recent Official Report on Females' Health in Norway</p><p align="left">underscores the discrimination against women from the medical research and the health services over</p><p align="left">the generations. The increasing gap in life expectancy between females and males doesn’t support this</p><p align="left">claim or at least doesn’t seem to have given the males an advantage. One consequence of the difference</p><p>in mortality is the widow/widower ratio which takes the value of about four in all adult age groups.</p></span></span>


Author(s):  
Isabel Cardoso ◽  
Peder Frederiksen ◽  
Ina Olmer Specht ◽  
Mina Nicole Händel ◽  
Fanney Thorsteinsdottir ◽  
...  

This study reports age- and sex-specific incidence rates of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) in complete Danish birth cohorts from 1992 through 2002. Data were obtained from the Danish registries. All persons born in Denmark, from 1992–2002, were followed from birth and until either the date of first diagnosis recording, death, emigration, 16th birthday or administrative censoring (17 May 2017), whichever came first. The number of incident JIA cases and its incidence rate (per 100,000 person-years) were calculated within sex and age group for each of the birth cohorts. A multiplicative Poisson regression model was used to analyze the variation in the incidence rates by age and year of birth for boys and girls separately. The overall incidence of JIA was 24.1 (23.6–24.5) per 100,000 person-years. The rate per 100,000 person-years was higher among girls (29.9 (29.2–30.7)) than among boys (18.5 (18.0–19.1)). There were no evident peaks for any age group at diagnosis for boys but for girls two small peaks appeared at ages 0–5 years and 12–15 years. This study showed that the incidence rates of JIA in Denmark were higher for girls than for boys and remained stable over the observed period for both sexes.


2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (9) ◽  
pp. 1106-1113 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. G. Pebody ◽  
H. K. Green ◽  
F. Warburton ◽  
M. Sinnathamby ◽  
J. Ellis ◽  
...  

AbstractSignificant increases in excess all-cause mortality, particularly in the elderly, were observed during the winter of 2014/15 in England. With influenza A(H3N2) the dominant circulating influenza A subtype, this paper determines the contribution of influenza to this excess controlling for weather. A standardised multivariable Poisson regression model was employed with weekly all-cause deaths the dependent variable for the period 2008–2015. Adjusting for extreme temperature, a total of 26 542 (95% CI 25 301–27 804) deaths in 65+ and 1942 (95% CI 1834–2052) in 15–64-year-olds were associated with influenza from week 40, 2014 to week 20, 2015. This is compatible with the circulation of influenza A(H3N2). It is the largest estimated number of influenza-related deaths in England since prior to 2008/09. The findings highlight the potential health impact of influenza and the important role of the annual influenza vaccination programme that is required to protect the population including the elderly, who are vulnerable to a severe outcome.


Author(s):  
Ramon Bauer ◽  
Markus Speringer ◽  
Peter Frühwirt ◽  
Roman Seidl ◽  
Franz Trautinger

In Austria, the first confirmed COVID-19 death occurred in early March 2020. Since then, the question as to whether and, if so, to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic has increased overall mortality has been raised in the public and academic discourse. In an effort to answer this question, Statistics Vienna (City of Vienna, Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics) has evaluated the weekly mortality trends in Vienna, and compared them to the trends in other Austrian provinces. For our analysis, we draw on data from Statistics Austria and the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), which are published along with data on the actual and the expected weekly numbers of deaths via the Vienna Mortality Monitoring website. Based on the definition of excess mortality as the actual number of reported deaths from all causes minus the expected number of deaths, we calculate the weekly prediction intervals of the expected number of deaths for two age groups (0 to 64 years and 65 years and older). The temporal scope of the analysis covers not only the current COVID-19 pandemic, but also previous flu seasons and summer heat waves. The results show the actual weekly numbers of deaths and the corresponding prediction intervals for Vienna and the other Austrian provinces since 2007. Our analysis underlines the importance of comparing time series of COVID-19-related excess deaths at the sub-national level in order to highlight within-country heterogeneities.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waleed H. Mahallawi ◽  
Ali Dakhilallah Alsamiri ◽  
Alaa Faisal Dabbour ◽  
Hamdah Alsaeedi ◽  
Abdulmohsen H. Al-Zalabani

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a global public health emergency. Age and sex are two important factors associated with risks and outcomes of various diseases. COVID-19 morbidity also seems to be affected by patient age and sex. It has been found that older age groups have more severe COVID-19 symptoms and higher fatality rates while children tend to have lower prevalence and milder symptoms than adults.Methods: The study reviewed electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients from Madinah city, Saudi Arabia. The study included all cases who tested positive (n = 3,006) between March 20 and May 22, 2020. Data were obtained from the Health Electronic Surveillance Network (HESN) database.Results: Approximately 80% of the study sample were males and half were in the 30–40-year-old age group. The Ct value of the whole sample ranged from 15.08 to 35, with a mean of 27.44 (SD: 5.23; 95% C.I. = 27.25–27.66). The means of Ct values varied between age groups from 27.05 to 27.82. Analysis of the mean differences between age groups using one-way ANOVA indicated no statistically significant difference among the groups (F6,2999 = 1.63; p-value = 0.135). A comparison of mean Ct values of males (n = 2,422) and females (n = 584) revealed that males had a statistically significant higher mean Ct value (27.61 ± 5.20) than females (26.72 ± 5.31). The difference between the means of the two groups was −0.89 (95% C.I. = −1.36 to −0.42; t-test −3.71; df = 3,004; p-value &lt; 0.001).Conclusion: The study found no statistically significant difference in viral loads between age groups. It showed that females had a higher SARS-CoV-2 viral load compared to males. The findings have implications for preventive strategies. Further studies are needed to correlate viral load with clinical symptoms and outcomes.


2017 ◽  
Vol 96 (10-11) ◽  
pp. E17-E22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Indranil Pal ◽  
Anindita Sinha Babu ◽  
Indranil Halder ◽  
Saumitra Kumar

Our aim was to find out the association between nasal smear eosinophil count and allergic rhinitis (AR) and to determine a cutoff value that is significant for a diagnosis of AR. We also wanted to determine whether this count is related to the predominant symptoms, duration, or type and severity of AR, or to the presence of coexisting asthma. We selected 100 patients with a clinical diagnosis of allergic rhinitis across all age groups and an equal number of age- and sex-matched controls for the study. Their nasal smear eosinophil counts were recorded in terms of the number of eosinophils per high-power field (HPF). All patients were then clinically assessed for asthma and underwent spirometry. The data were recorded and appropriate statistical analysis done. The difference in the mean eosinophil counts of patients with AR and controls was found to be statistically significant (p = 0.000). A nasal smear eosinophil count of >0.3 per HPF had a 100% specificity and a 100% positive predictive value for AR. Asthma was associated with allergic rhinitis in 40% of patients; an association was not found between nasal smear eosinophil count and the symptoms, duration, type, and severity of allergic rhinitis or coexistent asthma. We conclude that an eosinophil count of >0.3 per HPF in nasal smears is a highly specific criterion for the diagnosis of AR. However, nasal smear eosinophil counts are poor indicators of the degree, duration, or type of upper or associated lower airway inflammation due to allergy.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. R. Freitas ◽  
P. M. Alarcon-Elbal ◽  
M. R. Donalisio

AbstractIn some chikugunya epidemics, deaths are not fully captured by the traditional surveillance system, based on case reports and death reports. This is a time series study to evaluate the excess of mortality associated with epidemic of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Guadeloupe and Martinique, Antilles, 2014. The population (total 784,097 inhabitants) and mortality data estimated by sex and age were accessed at the Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques - France. Age adjusted mortality rates were calculated also in Reunion, Indian Ocean for comparison. Epidemiological data on CHIKV (cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) were obtained in the official epidemiological reports of the Cellule de Institut de Veille Sanitaire - France. The excess of deaths for each month in 2014 and 2015 was the difference between the expected and observed deaths for all age groups, considering the 99% confidence interval threshold. Pearson coefficient of correlation between monthly excess of deaths and reported cases of chikungunya show a strong correlation (R = 0.81, p <0.005), also with a 1-month lag (R = 0.87, p <0.001), and between monthly rates of hospitalization for CHIKV and the excess of deaths with a delay of 1 month (R = 0.87, p <0.0005).The peak of the epidemic occurred in the month with the highest mortality, returning to normal soon after the end of the CHIKV epidemic. The overall mortality estimated by this method (639 deaths) was about 4 times greater than that obtained through death declarations (160 deaths). Excess mortality increased with age. Although etiological diagnosis of all deaths associated with CHIKV infection is not possible, already well-known statistical tools can contribute to an evaluation of the impact of this virus on the mortality and morbidity in the different age groups.


Blood ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 106 (11) ◽  
pp. 3329-3329
Author(s):  
Mark N. Polizzotto ◽  
Constantine S. Tam ◽  
Henry Januszewicz ◽  
Miles Prince ◽  
Max Wolf ◽  
...  

Abstract Fludarabine (F)-based combination chemotherapy regimens are highly effective in a range of indolent lymphoproliferative disorders. Despite the prevalence of such disorders in older patients, the deliverability of these regimes in patients aged &gt;= 60 has not been assessed. We analysed the delivery and toxicity of three F-based regimens, all using F 25 mg/m2/dx3 q28d, in 82 adults aged &gt;= 60 years, and compared this with the same regimens in 99 adults aged &lt; 60. The sample comprised 66 patients (32 &gt;= 60) treated with F and cyclophosphamide (C; 250 mg/m2/dx3); 29 with F and mitoxantrone (M; 10 mg/m2 x1; 12 &gt;= 60); and 86 with FC and rituximab (R; 375 mg/m2 x1; 38 &gt;= 60). 349 cycles in older patients were compared with 393 cycles in younger patients for haematologic nadirs, infectious complications and organ toxicity. Both groups received a median of 4 cycles, although older patients were more likely to require dose reduction (4.3% of cycles versus 1.2%, P &lt; 0.001) and growth factor support (3.8% versus 1.8%, P=0.01). The cohorts were well matched for baseline characteristics other than age. Overall, older patients had a slightly higher rate of infections (18%/cycle versus 15%/cycle), though this was not statistically significant (P = 0.28). For severe (grade &gt;=3) infections the difference was minimal: 6% versus 7% (P&lt; 0.5). The rates of neutropenia &lt; 1.0 and 0.5 were 13% and 22% versus 11% and 20% for older and younger patients, respectively (all P values&gt;0.1). The rates of thrombocytopenia &lt; 100 and &lt; 50 were 21% and 5% versus 16% and 5% for older and younger cohorts (all P values &lt; 0.1). Other organ toxicities were uncommon, and showed no difference between age groups. Treatment-related mortality in both cohorts was &lt;1% (P &gt; 0.5). Comparison within the cohort aged over 60 showed that those aged 70 and over were at higher risk of haematological and infectious toxicity. 82 cycles delivered to 23 patients aged &gt;= 70 were compared with 267 cycles delivered to 61 patients aged 60 to 69. The rate of infection for those over 70 was 25% versus 16% in those aged 60 to 69, though this was not statistically significant (P=0.07). For severe infections (grade &gt;=3), the rates were 13% versus 6% (P=0.03), while rates of neutropenia &lt; 0.5 and thrombocytopenia &lt; 50 were 32% and 15% versus 8% and 3% for those &gt;= 70 and 60 to 69 respectively (all P values &gt; 0.001). These results demonstrate that F-based regimens are well tolerated and can safely be delivered to most older patients, with a modestly increased rate of infectious morbidity, but no increased treatment-related mortality. However, for patients aged &gt;=70 the increased rate of toxicity mandates careful patient selection and monitoring.


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