Is the impact of climate change on desertification predictable?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
YaoJie Yue ◽  
Min Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Inner Mongolia ◽  
North China ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Arid Areas ◽  
Sandy Land ◽  
Desertification Risk ◽  
Semi Arid

<p>Desertification, as one of the gravest ecological and environmental problems in the world, is affected both by climate change and human activities. As the consequences of global warming, the temperature in global arid and semi-arid areas is expected to increase by 1-3℃ by the end of this century. This change will significantly influence the spatial and temporal pattern of temperature, precipitation and wind speed in global arid and semi-arid areas, and in turn, ultimately impact the processing of desertification. Although current studies point out that future climate change tends to increase the risk of desertification. However, the future global or regional desertification risk under different climate change scenarios hasn’t been quantitively assessed. In this paper, we focused on this question by building a new model to evaluate this risk of desertification under an extreme climate change scenario, i.e. RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). We selected the northern agro-pastoral ecotone in China as the study area, where is highly sensitive to desertification. Firstly, the risk indicators of desertification were chosen in both natural and anthropic aspects, such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed, evaporation, and population. Secondly, the decision tree C5.0 algorithm of the machine learning technique was used to construct the quantitative evaluation model of land desertification risk based on the database of the 1:100,000 desertification map in China. Thirdly, with the support of the simulated meteorological data by General Circulation Models of HadGEM2-ES, the risk of desertification in the agro-pastoral ecotone in the north China under the RCP 8.5 scenario and SSP3 scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) were predicted. The results show that the overall accuracy of the C5.0-based quantitative evaluation model for desertification risk is up to 83.32%, indicating that the C5.0 can better distinguish the risk of desertification according to the status of desertification impacting factors. Under the influence of future climate change, the agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China was estimated to be dominated by mild desertification risk, covering an area of more than 70%. Severe and moderate desertification risk is mainly distributed in the vicinity of Hulunbuir sandy land in the northeast of Inner Mongolia and the Horqin sandy land in the junction between Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Liaoning provinces. Compared with the datum period, the risk of desertification will decrease under the RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario. However, the desertification risk in Hulunbuir sandy land and that in the northwest of Jilin province will increase. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for developing more effective desertification control strategies to adapt to climate change in the agro-pastoral ecotone in north China. More importantly, it shows that the desertification risk can be predicted under the different climate change scenarios, which will help us to make a better understanding of the potential trend of desertification in the future, especially when the earth is getting warmer.</p>

scholarly journals CMIP5 climate projections and RUSLE-based soil erosion assessment in the central part of Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Hateffard ◽  
Safwan Mohammed ◽  
Karam Alsafadi ◽  
Glory O. Enaruvbe ◽  
Ahmad Heidari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sustainable Land Use ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Arid Areas ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Atmospheric Variations ◽  
Semi Arid

AbstractSoil erosion (SE) and climate change are closely related to environmental challenges that influence human wellbeing. However, the potential impacts of both processes in semi-arid areas are difficult to be predicted because of atmospheric variations and non-sustainable land use management. Thus, models can be employed to estimate the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on environmental and human interactions. In this research, we present a novel study where changes in soil erosion by water in the central part of Iran under current and future climate scenarios are analyzed using the Climate Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) under three Representative Concentration Pathway-RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results showed that the estimated annual rate of SE in the study area in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2019 averaged approximately 12.8 t ha−1 y−1. The rangeland areas registered the highest soil erosion values, especially in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for 2070 with overall values of 4.25 t ha−1 y−1 and 4.1 t ha−1 y−1, respectively. They were followed by agriculture fields with 1.31 t ha−1 y−1 and 1.33 t ha−1 y−1. The lowest results were located in the residential areas with 0.61 t ha−1 y−1 and 0.63 t ha−1 y−1 in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for 2070, respectively. In contrast, RCP4.5 showed that the total soil erosion could experience a decrease in rangelands by − 0.24 t ha−1 y−1 (2050), and − 0.18 t ha−1 y−1 (2070) or a slight increase in the other land uses. We conclude that this study provides new insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop appropriate strategies to achieve sustainable land resources planning in semi-arid areas that could be affected by future and unforeseen climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Assessment of Streamflow from EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations in Semi-Arid Catchments Using the SWAT Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7120
Author(s):  
Alberto Martínez-Salvador ◽  
Agustín Millares ◽  
Joris P. C. Eekhout ◽  
Carmelo Conesa-García
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Semi Arid

This research studies the effect of climate change on the hydrological behavior of two semi-arid basins. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used with the simulation of two future climate change scenarios, one Representative Concentration Pathway moderate (RCP 4.5) and the other extreme (RCP 8.5). Three future periods were considered: close (2019–2040), medium (2041–2070), and distant (2071–2100). In addition, several climatic projections of the EURO-CORDEX model were selected, to which different bias correction methods were applied before incorporation into the SWAT model. The statistical indices for the monthly flow simulations showed a very good fit in the calibration and validation phases in the Upper Mula stream (NS = 0.79–0.87; PBIAS = −4.00–0.70%; RSR = 0.44–0.46) and the ephemeral Algeciras stream (NS = 0.78–0.82; PBIAS = −8.10–−8.20%; RSR = 0.4–0.42). Subsequently, the impact of climate change in both basins was evaluated by comparing future flows with those of the historical period. In the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by the end of the 2071–2100 period, the flows of the Upper Mula stream and the ephemeral Algeciras stream will have decreased by between 46.3% and 52.4% and between 46.6% and 55.8%, respectively.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Water Productivity of Maize in the Semi-Arid Environment of Punjab, Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3905
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mohsin Waqas ◽  
Syed Hamid Hussain Shah ◽  
Usman Khalid Awan ◽  
Muhammad Waseem ◽  
Ishfaq Ahmad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Farming Practices ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Swap Model ◽  
Semi Arid

Impact assessments on climate change are essential for the evaluation and management of irrigation water in farming practices in semi-arid environments. This study was conducted to evaluate climate change impacts on water productivity of maize in farming practices in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) system. Two fields of maize were selected and monitored to calibrate and validate the model. A water productivity analysis was performed using the Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant (SWAP) model. Baseline climate data (1980–2010) for the study site were acquired from the weather observatory of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). Future climate change data were acquired from the Hadley Climate model version 3 (HadCM3). Statistical downscaling was performed using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for the A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3. The water productivity assessment was performed for the midcentury (2040–2069) scenario. The maximum increase in the average maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) was found in the month of July under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The scenarios show a projected increase of 2.8 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under A2 as well as 2.7 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under B2 for the midcentury. Similarly, climate change scenarios showed that temperature is projected to decrease, with the average minimum and maximum temperatures of 7.4 and 6.4 °C under the A2 scenario and 7.7 and 6.8 °C under the B2 scenario in the middle of the century, respectively. However, the highest precipitation will decrease by 56 mm under the A2 and B2 scenarios in the middle of the century for the month of September. The input and output data of the SWAP model were processed in R programming for the easy working of the model. The negative impact of climate change was found under the A2 and B2 scenarios during the midcentury. The maximum decreases in Potential Water Productivity (WPET) and Actual Water Productivity (WPAI) from the baseline period to the midcentury scenario of 1.1 to 0.85 kgm−3 and 0.7 to 0.56 kgm−3 were found under the B2 scenario. Evaluation of irrigation practices directs the water managers in making suitable water management decisions for the improvement of water productivity in the changing climate.

scholarly journals Drought Monitoring Based on the SPI and RDI Indices under Climate Change Scenarios (Case Study: Semi-Arid Areas of West Golestan Province)

Ecopersia ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 1585-1602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Akbari ◽  
◽  
Majid Ownegh ◽  
Hamidreza Asgari ◽  
Amir Sadoddin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drought Monitoring ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Arid Areas ◽  
Golestan Province ◽  
Semi Arid

scholarly journals Assessing desertification sensitivity map under climate change and agricultural practices scenarios: the island of Crete case study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Morianou ◽  
N. N. Kourgialas ◽  
V. Pisinaras ◽  
G. Psarras ◽  
G. Arambatzis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Quality Improvement ◽  
Soil Quality ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Soil Quality Improvement ◽  
Desertification Risk

Abstract The aim of this study is the assessment of desertification risk in a typical Mediterranean island, in the frame of climate change and the application of good agricultural practices (GAPs). Based on the MEDALUS Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) approach, the sensitivity in desertification is estimated by employing 15 quantitative parameters divided in four main quality indices: climate, vegetation, soil and management quality. The methodology applied for a baseline scenario (current conditions), two future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and a soil quality improvement scenario. According to the results, more than 13% of the island's area is characterized as critically sensitive to desertification in the current conditions. This percentage seems to be increased in the future under both the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, where the critical areas will rise above to 15%. By applying, simultaneously with the climate change scenarios, the soil quality improvement scenario, a slight mitigation of desertification risk in the future could be achieved. The methodology developed in this study may be used to assess desertification process under various climate, soil and land use management scenarios in regions of the Mediterranean Sea.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

scholarly journals Water Temperature and Hydrological Modelling in the Context of Environmental Flows and Future Climate Change: Case Study of the Wilmot River (Canada)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2101
Author(s):  
Christian Charron ◽  
André St-Hilaire ◽  
Taha B.M.J. Ouarda ◽  
Michael R. van den Heuvel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Abstraction ◽  
Surface Water Flow ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Simulation of surface water flow and temperature under a non-stationary, anthropogenically impacted climate is critical for water resource decision makers, especially in the context of environmental flow determination. Two climate change scenarios were employed to predict streamflow and temperature: RCP 8.5, the most pessimistic with regards to climate change, and RCP 4.5, a more optimistic scenario where greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2040. Two periods, 2018–2050 and 2051–2100, were also evaluated. In Canada, a number of modelling studies have shown that many regions will likely be faced with higher winter flow and lower summer flows. The CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model was calibrated and validated for the Wilmot River, Canada, using historic data for flow and temperature. Total annual precipitation in the region was found to remain stable under RCP 4.5 and increase over time under RCP 8.5. Median stream flow was expected to increase over present levels in the low flow months of August and September. However, increased climate variability led to higher numbers of periodic extreme low flow events and little change to the frequency of extreme high flow events. The effective increase in water temperature was four-fold greater in winter with an approximate mean difference of 4 °C, while the change was only 1 °C in summer. Overall implications for native coldwater fishes and water abstraction are not severe, except for the potential for more variability, and hence periodic extreme low flow/high temperature events.

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