Flood forecasting and alerts in West Africa − experiences from co-developing a pre-operational system at regional scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jafet Andersson ◽  
Abdou Ali ◽  
Berit Arheimer ◽  
Louise Crochemore ◽  
Bode Gbobaniyi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Agile Development ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Flood Alert ◽  
Production And Distribution

<p>Flooding is a rapidly growing concern in West Africa. Several floods have occurred in recent years with severe consequences including loss of lives and damaged infrastructure. Flooding is also projected to increase with climate change. Access to operational forecasts is a critical component in addressing these challenges. This study presents results from our joint efforts to co-design, co-adapt, and co-operate a short- and medium-term operational hydrological forecasting and alert pilot system for West Africa, within the FANFAR project (www.fanfar.eu).</p><p>The system has been co-developed through a cycle of workshops, training sessions, and expert exchanges involving representatives from hydrological services, emergency management agencies, river basin organisations, and expert agencies in 17 countries in West and Central Africa. Multi-criteria decision analysis was employed to clarify and prioritize system objectives and configurations. We found that the most highly prioritized objectives were: high accuracy, clear flood risk information, reliable access, and timely production and distribution of the information. Our agile development approach also provided ample opportunities to focus development efforts on the most highly prioritized components, and incorporate stakeholder feedback in the development process.</p><p>The system is built on an ICT cloud platform that employs a daily forecasting chain including meteorological reanalysis and forecasting, data assimilation of gauge observations and satellite altimetry, hydrological initialisation and forecasting, flood alert derivation, and distribution through e-mail, SMS, web visualisation and API. The system is designed to enable multiple configurations and integration of several information sources (e.g. different hydrological models, observations, flood hazard thresholds etc.). We present the system configurations, stakeholder-driven adaptations, challenges, and current forecast performance. To our knowledge, the FANFAR system constitutes a significant advancement toward the vision of achieving efficient flood management in West Africa.</p>

Introduction

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Sharpe
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
East Africa ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Refugee Protection

This introductory chapter begins by presenting the book’s structure in section A. Section B then delineates the book’s contours, outlining four aspects of refugee protection in Africa that are not addressed. Section C provides context, with a contemporary overview of the state of refugee protection in Africa. It also looks at the major aspects of the refugee situations in each of Africa’s principal geographic sub-regions: East Africa (including the Horn of Africa), Central Africa and the Great Lakes, West Africa, Southern Africa, and North Africa. Section D then concludes with an outline of the theoretical approach to regime relationships employed throughout the book.

scholarly journals Applying floodplain geomorphology to flood management (The Lower Vistula River upstream from Plock, Poland)

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1003-1016
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Wierzbicki ◽  
Piotr Ostrowski ◽  
Tomasz Falkowski
Keyword(s):  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Field Work ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Erosion And Deposition ◽  
Geomorphological Mapping ◽  
Vistula River ◽  
Overbank Flow ◽  
Geomorphic Features ◽  
Gradient Condition ◽  
Topographical Maps

AbstractUsing remote sensing extended on geological and topographical maps and verified by the field work, we present the flood management and study the geomorphic features of the floodplain of a large, sand bed, untrained but embanked river in order to determine the flood hazard and to predict future flood scenarios. In geomorphological mapping, we focus on the landforms: crevasse channels and splays, flood basin, chute channels, side arms, floodplain channels, dunes and fields of aeolian sand. We base the flood risk assessment on consultations with environmental engineers who design new technical structures that control inundation (cut-off walls and lattice levees). We describe a levee breach as a result of piping (inner erosion) in a high hydraulic gradient condition and its effect (scour hole) as an erosional landform consistent with the repetitive pattern of erosion and deposition formed by an overbank flow on a floodplain. We reveal an existence of homogenous morphodynamic reaches in the river valley.

scholarly journals State and evolution of the African rainforests between 1990 and 2010

2013 ◽  
Vol 368 (1625) ◽  
pp. 20120300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Mayaux ◽  
Jean-François Pekel ◽  
Baudouin Desclée ◽  
François Donnay ◽  
Andrea Lupi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Congo Basin ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
Deforestation Rate ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Moderate Resolution ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

This paper presents a map of Africa's rainforests for 2005. Derived from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer data at a spatial resolution of 250 m and with an overall accuracy of 84%, this map provides new levels of spatial and thematic detail. The map is accompanied by measurements of deforestation between 1990, 2000 and 2010 for West Africa, Central Africa and Madagascar derived from a systematic sample of Landsat images—imagery from equivalent platforms is used to fill gaps in the Landsat record. Net deforestation is estimated at 0.28% yr −1 for the period 1990–2000 and 0.14% yr −1 for the period 2000–2010. West Africa and Madagascar exhibit a much higher deforestation rate than the Congo Basin, for example, three times higher for West Africa and nine times higher for Madagascar. Analysis of variance over the Congo Basin is then used to show that expanding agriculture and increasing fuelwood demands are key drivers of deforestation in the region, whereas well-controlled timber exploitation programmes have little or no direct influence on forest-cover reduction at present. Rural and urban population concentrations and fluxes are also identified as strong underlying causes of deforestation in this study.

scholarly journals Holocene changes in African vegetation: tradeoff between climate and water availability

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 681-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Hély ◽  
A.-M. Lézine ◽  
APD contributors
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Plant Distribution ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Plants ◽  
Plant Migration ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Instrumental Records

Abstract. Although past climate change is well documented in West Africa through instrumental records, modeling activities, and paleo-data, little is known about regional-scale ecosystem vulnerability and long-term impacts of climate on plant distribution and biodiversity. Here we use paleohydrological and paleobotanical data to discuss the relation between available surface water, monsoon rainfall and vegetation distribution in West Africa during the Holocene. The individual patterns of plant migration or community shifts in latitude are explained by differences among tolerance limits of species to rainfall amount and seasonality. Using the probability density function methodology, we show here that the widespread development of lakes, wetlands and rivers at the time of the "Green Sahara" played an additional role in forming a network of topographically defined water availability, allowing for tropical plants to migrate north from 15 to 24° N (reached ca. 9 cal ka BP). The analysis of the spatio–temporal changes in biodiversity, through both pollen occurrence and richness, shows that the core of the tropical rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone was centered at 15–20° N during the early Holocene wet period, with comparatively drier/more seasonal climate conditions south of 15° N.

scholarly journals Deep-Down Time: Political Tradition in Central Africa

1989 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 341-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Vansina
Keyword(s):  
Political Ideology ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Common View ◽  
Historical Processes ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Common ◽  
Political Communities ◽  
The Mind ◽  
The Impact

Around 1850 the peoples of central Africa from Duala to the Kunene River and from the Atlantic to the Great Lakes shared a common view of the universe and a common political ideology. This included assumptions about roles, statuses, symbols, values, and indeed the very notion of legitimate authority. Among the plethora of symbols connected with these views were the leopard or the lion, the sun, the anvil, and the drum, symbolizing respectively the leader as predator, protector, forger of society, and the voice of all. Obviously, in each case the common political ideology was expressed in slightly different views, reflecting the impact of differential historical processes on different peoples. But the common core persisted. The gigantic extent of this phenomenon, encompassing an area equal to two-thirds of the continental United States, baffles the mind. How did it come about? Such a common tradition certainly did not arise independently in each of the hundreds of political communities that existed then. However absorbent and stable this mental political constellation was, it must have taken shape over a profound time depth. How and as a result of what did this happen? Is it even possible to answer such queries in a part of the world that did not generate written records until a few centuries ago or less?This paper addresses this question: how can one trace the social construction of such a common constellation over great time depths and over great regional scale? All the peoples involved are agriculturalists and the political repertory with which we are concerned could not easily exist in its known form outside sedentary societies.

Systematic revision of the living African Slender-snouted Crocodiles (Mecistops Gray, 1844)

Zootaxa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 4504 (2) ◽  
pp. 151 ◽  
Author(s):  
MATTHEW H. SHIRLEY ◽  
AMANDA N. CARR ◽  
JENNIFER H. NESTLER ◽  
KENT A. VLIET ◽  
CHRISTOPHER A. BROCHU
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
West African ◽  
Valid Species ◽  
Morphological Evidence ◽  
Systematic Revision ◽  
Current State ◽  
History Of ◽  
Living Species ◽  
African Form

Molecular and morphological evidence has shown that the African slender-snouted, or sharp-nosed, crocodile Mecistops cataphractus (Cuvier, 1824) is comprised of two superficially cryptic species: one endemic to West Africa and the other endemic to Central Africa. Our ability to characterize the two species is compromised by the complicated taxonomic history of the lineage and overlapping ranges of variation in distinguishing morphological features. The name M. cataphractus was evidently originally based on West African material, but the holotype is now lost. Although types exist for other names based on the West African form, the name M. cataphractus is sufficiently entrenched in the literature, and other names sufficiently obscure, to justify retypification. Here, we designate a neotype for M. cataphractus and restrict it to West Africa. We resurrect M. leptorhynchus as a valid species from Central Africa and identify exemplary referred specimens that, collectively, overcome the obscurity and diagnostic limits of the extant holotype. We additionally indicate suitable neotype material in the event the holotype is lost, destroyed, or otherwise needing replacement, and we rectify the previously erroneous type locality designation. We provide a revised diagnosis for crown Mecistops, and revise and update previous descriptions of the two living species, including providing both more complete descriptions and discussion of diagnostic characters. Finally, we provide considerable discussion of the current state of knowledge of these species’ ecology, natural history, and distribution. 

scholarly journals Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation – concept development and application to the Mekong Delta

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 2859-2876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet ◽  
Nguyen Viet Dung ◽  
Bruno Merz ◽  
Heiko Apel
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Paddy Rice ◽  
Rice Cultivation ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Risk Maps

Abstract. Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost–benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.

scholarly journals The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2: first 18 months of science data products

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 549-563 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annmarie Eldering ◽  
Chris W. O'Dell ◽  
Paul O. Wennberg ◽  
David Crisp ◽  
Michael R. Gunson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Retrieval Algorithm ◽  
Science Data ◽  
The North ◽  
Data Products ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon

Abstract. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) is the first National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellite designed to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) with the accuracy, resolution, and coverage needed to quantify CO2 fluxes (sources and sinks) on regional scales. OCO-2 was successfully launched on 2 July 2014 and has gathered more than 2 years of observations. The v7/v7r operational data products from September 2014 to January 2016 are discussed here. On monthly timescales, 7 to 12 % of these measurements are sufficiently cloud and aerosol free to yield estimates of the column-averaged atmospheric CO2 dry air mole fraction, XCO2, that pass all quality tests. During the first year of operations, the observing strategy, instrument calibration, and retrieval algorithm were optimized to improve both the data yield and the accuracy of the products. With these changes, global maps of XCO2 derived from the OCO-2 data are revealing some of the most robust features of the atmospheric carbon cycle. This includes XCO2 enhancements co-located with intense fossil fuel emissions in eastern US and eastern China, which are most obvious between October and December, when the north–south XCO2 gradient is small. Enhanced XCO2 coincident with biomass burning in the Amazon, central Africa, and Indonesia is also evident in this season. In May and June, when the north–south XCO2 gradient is largest, these sources are less apparent in global maps. During this part of the year, OCO-2 maps show a more than 10 ppm reduction in XCO2 across the Northern Hemisphere, as photosynthesis by the land biosphere rapidly absorbs CO2. As the carbon cycle science community continues to analyze these OCO-2 data, information on regional-scale sources (emitters) and sinks (absorbers) which impart XCO2 changes on the order of 1 ppm, as well as far more subtle features, will emerge from this high-resolution global dataset.

Molecular investigation of the Pfmdr1 gene of Plasmodium falciparum isolates in Henan Province imported from Africa

Parasitology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (3) ◽  
pp. 372-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chengyun Yang ◽  
Ruimin Zhou ◽  
Ying Liu ◽  
Suhua Li ◽  
Dan Qian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
West Africa ◽  
East Africa ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Henan Province ◽  
Pfmdr1 Gene ◽  
Antimalarial Resistance ◽  
African Migrant

AbstractEfficacious antimalarial drugs are important for malaria control and elimination, and continuous monitoring of their efficacy is essential. The prevalence and distribution of Pfmdr1 were evaluated in African migrant workers in Henan Province. Among 632 isolates, 13 haplotypes were identified, NYSND (39.87%, 252/632), YYSND (2.85%, 18/632), NFSND (31.01%, 196/632), NYSNY (0.47%, 3/632), YFSND (13.77%, 87/632), NFSNY (0.32%, 2/632), YYSNY (2.06%, 13/632), YFSNY (0.16%, 1/632), N/Y YSND (1.90%, 12/632), N Y/F SND (6.17%, 39/632), N/Y Y/F SND (0.47%, 3/632), YYSN D/Y (0.16%, 1/632) and N/Y FSND (0.79%, 5/632). The highest frequency of NYSND was observed in individuals from North Africa (63.64%, 7/11), followed by South Africa (61.33%, 111/181), Central Africa (33.33%, 56/168), West Africa (28.94%, 68/235) and East Africa (27.03%, 10/37) (χ2 = 54.605, P < 0.05). The highest frequency of NFSND was observed in East Africa (48.65%, 18/37), followed by West Africa (39.14%, 92/235), Central Africa (26.79%, 45/168), South Africa (22.65%, 41/181) and North Africa (9.09%, 1/11) (χ2 = 22.368 P < 0.05). The mutant prevalence of codons 86 and 184 decreased. These data may provide complementary information on antimalarial resistance that may be utilized in the development of a treatment regimen for Henan Province.

scholarly journals Skill of Rain–Snow Level Forecasts for Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers: A Multimodel Assessment Using California’s Network of Vertically Profiling Radars

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 751-771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Henn ◽  
Rachel Weihs ◽  
Andrew C. Martin ◽  
F. Martin Ralph ◽  
Tashiana Osborne
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Resources Planning

AbstractThe partitioning of rain and snow during atmospheric river (AR) storms is a critical factor in flood forecasting, water resources planning, and reservoir operations. Forecasts of atmospheric rain–snow levels from December 2016 to March 2017, a period of active AR landfalls, are evaluated using 19 profiling radars in California. Three forecast model products are assessed: a global forecast model downscaled to 3-km grid spacing, 4-km river forecast center operational forecasts, and 50-km global ensemble reforecasts. Model forecasts of the rain–snow level are compared with observations of rain–snow melting-level brightband heights. Models produce mean bias magnitudes of less than 200 m across a range of forecast lead times. Error magnitudes increase with lead time and are similar between models, averaging 342 m for lead times of 24 h or less and growing to 700–800 m for lead times of greater than 144 h. Observed extremes in the rain–snow level are underestimated, particularly for warmer events, and the magnitude of errors increases with rain–snow level. Storms with high rain–snow levels are correlated with larger observed precipitation rates in Sierra Nevada watersheds. Flood risk increases with rain–snow levels, not only because a greater fraction of the watershed receives rain, but also because warmer storms carry greater water vapor and thus can produce heavier precipitation. The uncertainty of flood forecasts grows nonlinearly with the rain–snow level for these reasons as well. High rain–snow level ARs are a major flood hazard in California and are projected to be more prevalent with climate warming.

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