Polar Lows and Their Implications on Marine Operations: Survivability Criteria

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meric Pakkan ◽  
David Heng ◽  
Ove Tobias Gudmestad
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Regions ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Polar Low

The oil resource potential in the Arctic/sub-Arctic regions is estimated to be as high as that 25% of the world’s yet-to-be-found. Nevertheless, operating in above-mentioned regions is more complicated and expensive than the ones in the North Sea. One of the most important aspects to consider in operating in these Arctic regions is the presence of polar lows and arctic fronts and storms. These extreme events and implications of them on the marine operations were the main focus of this study. While the maximum polar low-sourced wind speeds for 10-, 20- and 100-year return periods are estimated to be 55.37, 60.93 and 73.52 knots, the maximum polar low-sourced wave heights for 10-, 20- and 100-year return periods are calculated as 5.71, 6.66 and 8.82 meters, respectively. It is found out that polar lows weather conditions do not normally represent design values (survival conditions); however, they represent operational limitations. • We conclude that operations lasting longer than 72 hours shall be designed for a rougher weather than the polar lows lead to (survival mode). • For operations of duration less than 72 hours, the weather forecast is crucial and it must also be possible to abort the operation within a short period if one is close to a polar weather front as a polar low may appear very quickly.

On Maintainability of Winterised Plants Operating in Arctic Regions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masoud Naseri
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Arctic Regions ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
Maintainability Analysis ◽  
Operation Risk ◽  
The Impact

In Arctic regions, oil and gas (O&G) operations are adversely affected by harsh weather conditions and severe meteorological phenomena such as icing storms and, in certain regions, polar low pressures. Potential solutions, such as implementing winterisation concepts, are explored in the design and even operation phases in order to overcome such obstacles. Simply, the main aim of winterisation is to provide the crew and equipment units with a range of normal environmental and working conditions through, for instance, insulating equipment units, installing heat tracers, enclosing working areas, providing the crew with adequate clothing, etc. There are, however, some concerns about the efficiency of such winterisation measures and potential changes in operation risk level, of which the changes in plant downtime, production loss, and plant maintainability are the focus of present study. The issue of complex effects of winterisation measures on maintainability analysis of O&G plants operating in the Arctic offshore has gained little attention in the literature. In this study, different aspects of winterisation from the viewpoint of equipment maintainability are discussed. Further, a mathematical framework for maintainability analysis of equipment units subjected to winterisation measures is proposed. The impact of winterisation-related downtimes on plant downtime is analysed as well by employing a Monte Carlo system simulation technique. The application of the proposed framework is illustrated by a case study. The results are further compared with those for a non-winterised system designed for normal-climate regions.

scholarly journals CloudSat Observes a Labrador Sea Polar Low

2015 ◽  
Vol 96 (8) ◽  
pp. 1229-1231 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Forsythe ◽  
John M. Haynes
Keyword(s):  
Wide Band ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
Cloud Band ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Cloud Radar ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
First Time

Abstract Polar lows generate hazardous weather conditions in the Arctic, and satellites have played a key role in understanding their genesis and dynamics. For the first time, an overpass of the CloudSat 94-GHz cloud radar over a polar low has been recorded. The case occurred in November 2013 in the Labrador Sea between Canada and Greenland, and had a striking convective appearance with an eyelike feature. A deep cloud band was observed by the radar, with radar reflectivity up to 5-km in altitude in a 50-km-wide band. It is likely that more such matchups exist in the CloudSat mission data.

Methods of modeling the polar low development 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Kuznetsova ◽  
Alexander Dosaev ◽  
Nikita Rusakov ◽  
Evgeny Poplavsky ◽  
Yuliya Troitskaya
Keyword(s):  
Barents Sea ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Polar Low

<p>The ice cover decrease in the Arctic in the past decade has led to polar hurricanes (polar lows) occurring along the entire Northern Sea Route. Wind speeds of these hurricanes reach 35-40 m / s. Over the past 20 years, significant progress in predicting storm trajectories has been achieved, while the quality of forecasting their intensity is still poor. This is due to the fact that the intensity (maximum wind speed and minimum pressure) is determined by the interaction of the atmosphere and the ocean, and at high wind speeds it has significant uncertainty, especially for the smallest-scale processes: splashes, wave collapses and foam bubbles [1].</p><p>Numerical modeling of the polar low development was carried out within the framework of the WRF model [2] in order to develop methods for modeling such extreme events. The water area of the Barents Sea was considered, where a large number of polar hurricanes were observed. Among the identified polar hurricanes [3], a hurricane that took place on 02/05/2009 and was observed at coordinates 69º N, 40º E was chosen. Several approaches were considered to simulate the weather conditions in the studied area of the Barents Sea in the presence of a polar hurricane. The WRF model simulation with the CFSR reanalysis was carried out. The configuration of the model consisted in using, first, the well-proven technique of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) modeling of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Secondly, the simulation was performed using the WRF add-in for the polar region, Polar WRF [4]. The comparison of the approaches is made. The mechanism of intensification of the atmospheric vortex is considered whether it is baroclinic shear, heat fluxes on the surface or outcome of latent heat during condensation.</p><p>This work was supported by a RFBR grant № 18-05-60299.</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>1. Troitskaya, Yu, et al. "Bag-breakup fragmentation as the dominant mechanism of sea-spray production in high winds." Scientific reports7.1 (2017): 1-4.<br>2. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 / W. C. Skamarock, J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, M. G. Duda, X.-Y. Huang, W. Wang, J. G. Powers // NCAR TECHNICAL NOTE. - 2008. - №NCAR/TN–475+STR. - С. 113 pp.<br>3. Noer, G., & Lien, T. (2010). Dates and Positions of Polar lows over the Nordic Seas between 2000 and 2010. Norwegian Meteorological Institute Rep.<br>4. Hines, Keith M., et al. "Development and testing of Polar WRF. Part III: Arctic land." Journal of Climate24.1 (2011): 26-48.</p>

scholarly journals A Polar Low Pair over the Norwegian Sea

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (8) ◽  
pp. 2559-2575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burghard Brümmer ◽  
Gerd Müller ◽  
Gunnar Noer
Keyword(s):  
Heat Budget ◽  
Cloud Layer ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Aircraft Measurements ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
The North ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
Upper Level Jet ◽  
Almost All

Abstract During the Lofotes cyclone experiment (LOFZY 2005), two polar lows developed one behind the other inside a cold-air outbreak from the north in the lee of Spitsbergen on 7 March 2005. Buoys, ship, and aircraft measurements as well as satellite imagery are applied to analyze the polar low bulk properties, the horizontal and vertical structure, and the mass, moisture, and heat budget. The lifetime of the system until landfall at northern Norway was 12 h. The generation occurred under the left exit region of an upper-level jet with 70 m s−1. Both polar lows had a radius of 100–130 km and extended to a height of about 2.5 km. The propagation speeds were within 14–17 m s−1 and correspond to the vertically averaged wind velocity of the lowest 2.5 km. In the polar low centers the pressure was about 2–3 hPa lower and the air was 1–2 K warmer and drier than in the surroundings. Aircraft measurements in the second of the two polar lows show an embedded frontlike precipitation band north of the center. Here, the highest low-level winds with 25 m s−1 and the largest fluxes of sensible and latent heat with 290 and 520 W m−2, respectively, were measured (areal averages amounted to 115 and 190 W m−2). Aircraft data show mass convergence in the subcloud layer (0–900 m) and divergence in the cloud layer (900–2500 m). Moisture supply by evaporation from the sea surface was about twice as large as that by convergence in the subcloud layer. The condensation rate in the cloud layer nearly equaled the rate of evaporation at the sea surface. Almost all condensed cloud water was converted to precipitation water. Only half of the precipitation at the cloud base reached the sea surface.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Circulation Effects on Wind Speed Variability at Turbine Height

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Klink
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Pressure Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Circulation Index ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North

Abstract Mean monthly wind speed at 70 m above ground level is investigated for 11 sites in Minnesota for the period 1995–2003. Wind speeds at these sites show significant spatial and temporal coherence, with prolonged periods of above- and below-normal values that can persist for as long as 12 months. Monthly variation in wind speed primarily is determined by the north–south pressure gradient, which captures between 22% and 47% of the variability (depending on the site). Regression on wind speed residuals (pressure gradient effects removed) shows that an additional 6%–15% of the variation can be related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Wind speeds showed little correspondence with variation in the Pacific–North American (PNA) circulation index. The effect of the strong El Niño of 1997/98 on the wind speed time series was investigated by recomputing the regression equations with this period excluded. The north–south pressure gradient remains the primary determinant of mean monthly 70-m wind speeds, but with 1997/98 removed the influence of the AO increases at nearly all stations while the importance of the Niño-3.4 SSTs generally decreases. Relationships with the PNA remain small. These results suggest that long-term patterns of low-frequency wind speed (and thus wind power) variability can be estimated using large-scale circulation features as represented by large-scale climatic datasets and by climate-change models.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the abundance of cuckoo wasps (Hymenoptera, Chrysididae) in the conditions of the altitudinal-belt heterogeneity of the North Caucasus

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 00023
Author(s):  
Nikolay Vinokurov
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
New Species ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Nature Management ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Altitudinal Belt ◽  
The North ◽  
Short Period ◽  
First Time

The work provides data on the dynamics of the abundance of 205 taxa from 19 genera: Cleptes, Colpopyga, Elampus, Omalus, Philoctetes, Pseudomalus, Hedychridium, Hedychrum, Holopyga, Chrysidea, Chrysis, Euchroeus, Chrysura, Pseudochrysis, Spinolia, Spinolia, including species rare and new for the fauna of the North Caucasus and Russia. By the nature of the population dynamics, five groups of cuckoo wasps were identified: spring – represented by 7 species from 4 genera; spring-summer – 76 species from 10 genera; summer – 113 species from 16 genera; summer-autumn – 4 species from 2 genera and spring-summer-autumn – 5 species from 3 genus. According to the duration of flight, eurychronous species of cuckoo wasps were identified, which are found throughout the season from spring to autumn; mesochronous – the years of which affect the end of May and summer months and stenochronous – confined to a short period of time. Eurychronic accounted for 2.4%, mesochronous 24.9%, stenochronic 72.7%. The number of generations of cuckoo wasps is related to the dynamics of the number of the host. In the mountains, the peaks of activity shift towards the middle of summer, most species have one peak of activity; due to the frequent changes in weather conditions in the mountains, the phenological characteristics of the cuckoo wasps and their hosts do not coincide in terms with the lowland populations and the periods of activity can be extended in time. Phenological characteristics of rare and new species for the fauna of the North Caucasus and Russia are presented for the first time. The data obtained expand the understanding of the biodiversity and dynamics of the abundance of cuckoo wasps in the North Caucasus and can be used for environmental protection measures and rational nature management in the south of Russia.

Wind waves modeling in the polar law weather conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Kuznetsova ◽  
Evgeny Poplavsky ◽  
Nikita Rusakov ◽  
Yuliya Troitskaya
Keyword(s):  
Wind Waves ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Free Water ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Geophysical Research ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Adverse Weather

<p>Arctic storms pose a great danger to developing commercial and passenger shipping, coastal infrastructure, and also for oil production from offshore platforms. This is primarily due to high waves and extreme winds. Such episodes of adverse weather conditions due to their rapid development are poorly predicted by modern models. For this purpose, the representation of the event of polar law is studied in the wave model WAVEWATCH III.</p><p>Wind waves were simulated under conditions of polar depression on ice-free water. To simulate wind waves under conditions of polar depression, the Barents Sea was selected, where, according to the data of [1, 2], a large number of polar hurricanes are observed. Among the identified polar hurricanes, for example, in [3], a hurricane that took place on 05.02.2009, observed at coordinates 69 N 40 E is chosen. The preliminary results in the wave model are obtained without the ice influence consideration. The developed model was configured using the CFSR wind reanalysis data. The resulting distribution of significant wave heights is obtained. Then, to consider the attenuation by sea ice, the reanalysis data of the Arctic System Reanalysis Version 2 (ASRv2), which is based on Polar WRF with a resolution of 15 km for the Arctic region, is used. Modeling the destruction of ice by waves during an intense arctic storm will be implemented using WW3 models with an IS2 module.</p><p>The work is supported by RFBR grant 18-05-60299.</p><ol><li>Smirnova, J. E., Golubkin, P. A., Bobylev, L. P., Zabolotskikh, E. V., & Chapron, B. (2015). Polar low climatology over the Nordic and Barents seas based on satellite passive microwave data. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(13), 5603-5609.</li> <li>Smirnova, J., & Golubkin, P. (2017). Comparing polar lows in atmospheric reanalyses: Arctic System Reanalysis versus ERA-Interim. Monthly Weather Review, 145(6), 2375-2383.</li> <li>Noer, G., & Lien, T. (2010). Dates and Positions of Polar lows over the Nordic Seas between 2000 and 2010. Norwegian Meteorological Institute Rep.</li> </ol>

Development of Tourism in the Arctic Zone and Its Impact on Environment

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1642
Author(s):  
Marina L. BELONOZHKO ◽  
Oleg M. BARBAKOV ◽  
Anton L. ABRAMOVSKY
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Russian Arctic ◽  
Arctic Zone ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Regions ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Historical Resources ◽  
Almost All

For a long time, the Arctic was considered a territory not adapted for human life (“dead earth”), impassable either by water or by land due to the climate. Currently, not only scientists, but also ordinary travelers and tourists are going to the North Pole. Today, tourism in the Arctic is one of the rapidly developing areas in the past few years. Therefore, the authors studied the development of tourism in the Arctic and its impact on the environment. It has been established that the development of ecological, cultural, scientific, extreme tourism, sport hunting, fishing and cruises is relevant for the Arctic regions. It was determined that the main problem in the development of tourism in the Russian Arctic is the transport and logistics underdevelopment of the region. But, these territories are so rich in natural, cultural, historical resources that there is the possibility of developing almost all types of tourism.

scholarly journals A Modeling Study of the Initial Formation of Polar Lows in the Vicinity of the Arctic Front

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Mingalev ◽  
Konstantin Orlov ◽  
Victor Mingalev
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Height Range ◽  
Limited Region ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
Arctic Front

A regional mathematical model of the wind system of the lower atmosphere, developed recently in the Polar Geophysical Institute, is applied to investigate the initial stage of the formation of polar lows at latitudes of the European Arctic. The mathematical model is based on numerical solving of nonsimplified gas dynamic equations and produces three-dimensional distributions of the atmospheric parameters in the height range from 0 to 15 km over a limited region of the Earth’s surface. Simulation results indicated that the origin of a convexity in the configuration of the arctic front can lead to the formation of a polar low during the period of about one day.

The Canadian Sledge Dogs of the Eastern and Western Arctic

Polar Record ◽  
1937 ◽  
Vol 2 (13) ◽  
pp. 59-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hadwen
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Good Condition ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Regions ◽  
Arctic Exploration ◽  
Western Arctic ◽  
Time Of Year ◽  
Working Out ◽  
Better Than

In reading of Arctic exploration one is struck with the ill-fate which has often beset the dogs accompanying the explorers. Recently Baashuus-Jessen (1935) has carefully studied the accounts of many of these important expeditions and, according to this author, the lack of proper food containing right amounts of fat, minerals and vitamins was the principal cause of nervous diseases and malnutrition in the animals. In the Arctic and Antarctic regions, nevertheless, some most successful journeys have been accomplished with the aid of dogs. Unfortunately, it should be added that though the explorers reached their goals, it was often at the expense of their animals. Without doubt, also, when a stage is reached where dogs have to be sacrificed to feed the living, the latter are not in much better condition than those which were killed. Personally I should like to see or hear of an expedition, to one of the Poles or to some other place difficult of access, where all the dogs would return in good condition, to show the world what could be done with proper food and management. This article has been written for the Institute in the hope that the information about sledge-dogs may be of some assistance to those about to undertake expeditions in the Arctic regions. In this connection I should like to say that no other domesticated animal can withstand the hardships of the north better than the dog. He can follow man wherever he goes, and I have wondered why he is not more used, for instance, in mountaineering at the lower levels. The dog, being a native animal, winters well if he is properly fed, and should be at his best when the days begin to lengthen, which is just the time of year long journeys are undertaken. I will conclude by hoping that some of our young men will make a study of this matter: first of all by getting a thorough understanding of the mechanical laws involved in traction and harnessing; secondly, in working out balanced rations with the food available in the different countries where the dogs are to be driven, and also by making a study of hygiene and of preventive measures against disease and parasites; and lastly, by getting some actual practice in dog driving.

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