Controlled drainage in future climate scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksi Salla ◽  
Heidi Salo ◽  
Harri Koivusalo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Controlled Drainage ◽  
Agricultural Field ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wet And Dry Cycles ◽  
Drainage Effect

<p>Climate change is projected to result in higher temperatures, higher annual precipitation and more uneven distribution of precipitation in the northern regions. This requires adaptation in agriculture where both excessively wet and dry cycles pose challenges to cropping. Until now, water management in northern agricultural fields has been resting primarily on efficient drainage, but interest towards more flexible measures has increased.</p><p>This study focuses on the hydrological effects of climate change and controlled drainage operated with subsurface drains and an open collector ditch in an agricultural field. The objective was to computationally estimate how groundwater levels and water balance respond to controlled drainage and open ditch scenarios in climate conditions projected to take place in Finland during this century. A hydrological model FLUSH was used to simulate the hydrology of an experimental field in Sievi, Northern Ostrobothnia, Finland during years 1970–2100. Down-scaled climate projections from EURO-CORDEX (RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6) were used as meteorological input. The temporal development of the field hydrology and the effects of controlled drainage were examined by dividing the time series into four subsequent time intervals (historical period and three future periods).</p><p>Two different control scenarios were studied. Drainage intensity was reduced during growing seasons in summers (Jun.–Aug.) and either in autumn (Oct.–Nov.) or from autumn to spring (Oct.–Mar.). During these periods, groundwater table was on average 17–29 cm, 28–30 cm and 36–40 cm higher, respectively, in the control scenarios when compared to conventional subsurface drainage in different study intervals and emission scenarios. The implementation of controlled drainage reduced annual drain discharge by 21–46 mm. The projected temporal evolution of the effects of controlled drainage on groundwater levels and annual drain discharges were not monotonous, but the projected effects were larger during the future periods when compared to the historical period. Controlled drainage effect on groundwater levels was seen during both dry and wet years. Controlled drainage was assessed to be an effective method to control field water processes currently and in the future decades. The open collector ditch lowered groundwater levels within a distance of 115 m from the ditch.</p>

scholarly journals Controlled drainage under two climate change scenarios in a flat high-latitude field

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksi Salla ◽  
Heidi Salo ◽  
Harri Koivusalo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reference Interval ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Controlled Drainage ◽  
Agricultural Field ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Field Water Balance

Abstract This simulation study focused on the hydrological effects of climate change and controlled drainage operated with subsurface drains and an open collector ditch in an agricultural field. The objective was to understand the potential of controlled drainage and open ditch schemes for managing groundwater levels and field water balance in climate conditions projected to take place in Finland during the 21st century with representative concentration pathways 8.5 and 2.6. A methodological aim was to find ways to condense hourly hydrological results to understand future changes in field hydrology. During the historical reference interval (1970–2005), controlled drainage caused 17–36 cm higher mean groundwater levels and decreased the mean annual drain discharge by 11–23% compared to conventional subsurface drainage. Controlled drainage was projected to increase groundwater levels by additional 1–4 cm in the future compared to its effect on drainage during the reference interval. The effect on annual drain discharge did not change significantly. The open collector ditch lowered groundwater tables and diminished the effect of controlled drainage on groundwater levels in the vicinity of the ditch. Controlled drainage was shown to remain an effective method for countering early summer drought and reducing drain discharge.

Evaluating the effects of climate change for groundwater quantitative status in Denmark

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annesofie Jakosben ◽  
Hans Jørgen Henriksen ◽  
Ernesto Pasten-Zapata ◽  
Torben Sonnenborg ◽  
Lars Troldborg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Ecological Flow

<p>By use of transient and distributed groundwater-surface water flow models, simulated time series of stream discharge and groundwater level for monitoring networks, groundwater bodies and river reaches have been analysed for a historical period and four different future scenarios toward 2100 in two large-scale catchments in Denmark. The purpose of the climate scenarios has been to qualify the existing knowledge on how future climate change most likely will impact hydrology, groundwater status and Ecological Quality Elements (EQR- Ecological flow in rivers). Another purpose has been to identify whether foreseen climate changes will be detected by the surface water and groundwater monitoring networks, and to which degree the River Basin Management Plan measures for supporting the goal of good quantitative status are robust to the projected changes in water balance and ecological flow. The developed hydrological models were run with climate inputs based on selected RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate model runs (RCP8.5 wet, median, dry and RCP4.5 median). Changes in groundwater quantitative status and ecological flow metrics were calculated based on 30-year model runs driven by RCP8.5 for 2071-2100 (RCP4.5 for 2041-70) and compared to 1981-2010.</p><p>Overall the four scenarios results in very significant water balance changes with increased precipitation: 3% to 27%, evapotranspiration: 6% to 17%, groundwater recharge: 0% to 49%, drainage flow: 0% to 71%, baseflow: 0% to 31% and overland flow: 16% to 281%. For one catchment an increase in abstraction of 23% to 171% due to an increase in irrigation demand by 36% to 113% is foreseen. The results have wide implications for groundwater flooding risks, quantitative status and ecological flow metrics. Most sensitive is changes in ecological flow conditions in rivers for fish, showing a relative high probability for decreased state for 10-20% of the reaches for the RCP8.5 wet and dry scenarios due to more extreme hydrological regimes toward 2071-2100. Maximum monthly runoff is increased for winter months by 100% for RCP8.5 wet and median scenarios and around 10% for RCP8.5 dry scenario. Annual maximum daily flows is simulated to increase by up to a factor of five, and late summer low flows decreased.</p><p>Impacts on groundwater levels and water balances of groundwater bodies will be significant, with increased seasonal fluctuations and also increased maximum and decreased minimum groundwater levels for 30 year periods for 2071-2100 compared to 1981-2010.</p><p>More rain, both when we look back on historical data and when we look forward with latest climate projections will result in more frequent flooding from groundwater and streams in the future. At the same time, the temperature and thus evapotranspiration rises. This means that in the long term we will have increased challenges with drought and increased irrigation demands on sandy soils while evapotranspiration will also increase on the clayey soils. This will result in greater fluctuation in the flow and groundwater levels between winters and summers, and between wet and dry years, challenging sustainable groundwater abstraction and maintaining good quantitative status of groundwater bodies.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of climate change exposure of tourism in Hungary using observations and regional climate model data

2021 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 215-231
Author(s):  
Attila Kovács ◽  
◽  
Andrea Király ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Strategy Development ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tourism Climate

Climate constitutes key resources for tourism since it influences the range of tourism activities and the development of tourism supply. Tourism is highly sensitive to changes in climate elements. It is extremely important for adaptation strategy-making to explore whether the tourism climate conditions in a given region and at a specific time are appropriate and how they may change in the future. This is described by the exposure of the tourism sector to climate conditions and climate change. In this study, we analyse the exposure of tourism for Hungary on a district level and every month (from March to November) with the help of the modified Tourism Climate Index. First, the present conditions are evaluated based on a gridded observational database CarpatClim-HU, which forms the basis for assessing the future conditions. Afterwards, the expected future circumstances are analysed using regional climate model outputs. In order to interpret the uncertainties of the climate projections properly, we use two different model results (HIRHAM5 and RACMO22E) relying on two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results have demonstrated that the most favourable conditions are found in spring (MAM) and autumn (SON), while in summer (JJA) a decline in climate potential is observed. According to the future tendencies, generally, a decline is expected between May and September, but the other investigated months usually bring an improvement. For a given emission scenario, the expected trend is quite similar for the two model experiments, while for a given climate model, the use of RCP8.5 scenario indicates larger changes than RCP4.5. The results prove that climate change will have an obvious impact on tourism potential in Hungary, and therefore tourism strategy development has to take into account this effect more than before.

scholarly journals Cities of the future, visualizing climate change to inspire actions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Francois Bastin ◽  
Emily Clark ◽  
Thomas Elliott ◽  
Simon Hart ◽  
Johan van den Hoogen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future

AbstractCombating against climate change requires unified action across all sectors of society. However, this collective action is precluded by the ‘consensus gap’ between scientific knowledge and public opinion. A growing body of evidence suggests that facts do not persuade people to act. Instead, it is visualization - the ability to simulate relatable scenarios - is the most effective approach for motivating behavior change. Here, we exemplify this approach, using current climate projections to enable people to visualize cities of the future, rather than describing intangible climate variables. Analyzing city pairs for 520 major cities of the world, we characterize which cities will most closely resemble the climate conditions of which other major cities by 2050. On average, most cities will resemble cities that are over 1000km south, and 22% of cities will experience climate conditions that are not currently experienced by any existing major cities. We predict that London’s climate in 2050 will resemble Barcelona’s climate today, Madrid will resemble to Marrakesh, Moscow to Sofia, Seattle to San Francisco, Stockholm to Budapest, Tokyo to Changsha, etc. Our approach illustrates how complex climate data can be packaged to provide tangible information. By allowing people to visualize their own climate futures, we hope to empower citizens, policy makers and scientists to visualize expected climate impacts and adapt decision making accordingly.

scholarly journals The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendri Irwandi ◽  
Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽  
Terry Mart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

scholarly journals The Awareness of and Input into Cultural Heritage Preservation by Urban Planners and Other Municipal Actors in Light of Climate Change

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 726
Author(s):  
Paul Carroll ◽  
Eeva Aarrevaara
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Town Planning ◽  
Urban Setting ◽  
Heritage Preservation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cultural Heritage Preservation

Future climate conditions need to be considered in planning for urban areas. As well as considering how new structures would best endure in the future, it is important to take into account factors that contribute to the degradation of cultural heritage buildings in the urban setting. Climate change can cause an increase in structural degradation. In this paper, a review of both what these factors are and how they are addressed by urban planners is presented. A series of inquiries into the topic was carried out on town planning personnel and those involved in cultural heritage preservation in several towns and cities in Finland and in a small number of other European countries. The target group members were asked about observed climate change impacts on cultural heritage, about present steps being taken to protect urban cultural heritage, and also their views were obtained on how climate change impacts will be emphasised in the future in this regard. The results of the inquiry demonstrate that climate change is still considered only in a limited way in urban planning, and more interaction between different bodies, both planning and heritage authorities, as well as current research on climate change impacts, is needed in the field.

Structural safety and design under climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.</p><p>Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.</p><p>In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.</p><p>The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.</p>

Trading space for time: Assessment of tree habitat shifts under climate change using bioclimatic envelopes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharina Enigl ◽  
Matthias Schlögl ◽  
Christoph Matulla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Ips Typographus ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Forest Damage ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
North East ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
Forest District

&lt;p&gt;Climate change constitutes a main driver of altering population dynamics of spruce bark beetles (&lt;em&gt;Ips typographus&lt;/em&gt;) all over Europe. Their swarming activity as well as development rate are strongly dependent on temperature and the availability of brood trees. Especially over the last years, the latter has substantially increased due to major drought events which led to a widespread weakening of spruce stands. Since both higher temperatures and longer drought periods are to be expected in Central Europe in the decades ahead, foresters face the challenges of maintaining sustainable forest management and safeguarding future yields. One approach used to foster decision support in silviculture relies on the identification of possible alternative tree species suitable for adapting to expected future climate conditions in threatened regions.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this study, we focus on the forest district of Horn, a region in Austria&amp;#8216;s north east that is beneficially influenced by the mesoclimate of the Pannonian basin. This fertile yet dry area has been severely affected by mass propagations of &lt;em&gt;Ips typographus&lt;/em&gt; due to extensive droughts since 2017, and consequently has suffered from substantial forest damage in recent years. The urgent need for action was realized and has expedited the search for more robust alternative species to ensure sustainable silviculture in the area.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The determination of suitable tree species is based on the identification of regions whose climatic conditions in the recent past are similar to those that are to be expected in the forest district of Horn in the future. To characterize these conditions, we consider 19 bioclimatic variables that are derived from monthly temperature and rainfall values. Using downscaled CMIP6 projections with a spatial resolution of 2.5 minutes, we determine future conditions in Horn throughout the 21st century. By employing 20-year periods from 2021 to 2100 for the scenarios SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70 and SSP5-85,&amp;#160; and comparing them to worldwide past climate conditions, we obtain corresponding bioclimatic regions for four future time slices until the end of the century. The Euclidian distance is applied as measure of similarity, effectively yielding similarity maps on a continuous scale. In order to account for the spatial variability within the forest district, this procedure is performed for the colder northwest and the warmer southeast of the area, individually seeking similar bioclimatic regions for each of these two subregions. Results point to Eastern Europe as well as the Po Valley in northern Italy as areas exhibiting the highest similarity to the future climate in this North-Eastern part of Austria.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pan ◽  
Xu ◽  
Xuan ◽  
Gu ◽  
Bai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Yarlung Zangbo River ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Impact

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important element in the water and energy cycle. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important measurement of ET. Its accuracy has significant influence on agricultural water management, irrigation planning, and hydrological modelling. However, whether current PET models are applicable under climate change or not, is still a question. In this study, five frequently used PET models were chosen, including one combination model (the FAO Penman-Monteith model, FAO-PM), two temperature-based models (the Blaney-Criddle and the Hargreaves models) and two radiation-based models (the Makkink and the Priestley-Taylor models), to estimate their appropriateness in the historical and future periods under climate change impact on the Yarlung Zangbo river basin, China. Bias correction methods were not only applied to the temperature output of Global Climate Models (GCMs), but also for radiation, humidity, and wind speed. It was demonstrated that the results from the Blaney-Criddle and Makkink models provided better agreement with the PET obtained by the FAO-PM model in the historical period. In the future period, monthly PET estimated by all five models show positive trends. The changes of PET under RCP8.5 are much higher than under RCP2.6. The radiation-based models show better appropriateness than the temperature-based models in the future, as the root mean square error (RMSE) value of the former models is almost half of the latter models. The radiation-based models are recommended for use to estimate PET under climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin.

scholarly journals Characterizing Hydrological Drought and Water Scarcity Changes in the Future: A Case Study in the Jinghe River Basin of China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1605
Author(s):  
Chaoxing Sun ◽  
Xiong Zhou
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Jinghe River Basin ◽  
Jinghe River

The assessment of future climate changes on drought and water scarcity is extremely important for water resources management. A modeling system is developed to study the potential status of hydrological drought and water scarcity in the future, and this modeling system is applied to the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) of China. Driven by high-resolution climate projections from the Regional Climate Modeling System (RegCM), the Variable Infiltration Capacity model is employed to produce future streamflow projections (2020–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The copula-based method is applied to identify the correlation between drought variables (i.e., duration and severity), and to further quantify their joint risks. Based on a variety of hypothetical water use scenarios in the future, the water scarcity conditions including extreme cases are estimated through the Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+) indicator. The results indicate that the joint risks of drought variables at different return periods would decrease. In detail, the severity of future drought events would become less serious under different RCP scenarios when compared with that in the historical period. However, considering the increase in water consumption in the future, the water scarcity in JRB may not be alleviated in the future, and thus drought assessment alone may underestimate the severity of future water shortage. The results obtained from the modeling system can help policy makers to develop reasonable future water-saving planning schemes, as well as drought mitigation measures.

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