Controlled drainage under two climate change scenarios in a flat high-latitude field

Abstract This simulation study focused on the hydrological effects of climate change and controlled drainage operated with subsurface drains and an open collector ditch in an agricultural field. The objective was to understand the potential of controlled drainage and open ditch schemes for managing groundwater levels and field water balance in climate conditions projected to take place in Finland during the 21st century with representative concentration pathways 8.5 and 2.6. A methodological aim was to find ways to condense hourly hydrological results to understand future changes in field hydrology. During the historical reference interval (1970–2005), controlled drainage caused 17–36 cm higher mean groundwater levels and decreased the mean annual drain discharge by 11–23% compared to conventional subsurface drainage. Controlled drainage was projected to increase groundwater levels by additional 1–4 cm in the future compared to its effect on drainage during the reference interval. The effect on annual drain discharge did not change significantly. The open collector ditch lowered groundwater tables and diminished the effect of controlled drainage on groundwater levels in the vicinity of the ditch. Controlled drainage was shown to remain an effective method for countering early summer drought and reducing drain discharge.

Download Full-text

Controlled drainage in future climate scenarios

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14381 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Aleksi Salla ◽

Heidi Salo ◽

Harri Koivusalo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Historical Period ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Controlled Drainage ◽

Agricultural Field ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Groundwater Levels ◽

The Future ◽

Wet And Dry Cycles ◽

Drainage Effect

Climate change is projected to result in higher temperatures, higher annual precipitation and more uneven distribution of precipitation in the northern regions. This requires adaptation in agriculture where both excessively wet and dry cycles pose challenges to cropping. Until now, water management in northern agricultural fields has been resting primarily on efficient drainage, but interest towards more flexible measures has increased.This study focuses on the hydrological effects of climate change and controlled drainage operated with subsurface drains and an open collector ditch in an agricultural field. The objective was to computationally estimate how groundwater levels and water balance respond to controlled drainage and open ditch scenarios in climate conditions projected to take place in Finland during this century. A hydrological model FLUSH was used to simulate the hydrology of an experimental field in Sievi, Northern Ostrobothnia, Finland during years 1970&#8211;2100. Down-scaled climate projections from EURO-CORDEX (RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6) were used as meteorological input. The temporal development of the field hydrology and the effects of controlled drainage were examined by dividing the time series into four subsequent time intervals (historical period and three future periods).Two different control scenarios were studied. Drainage intensity was reduced during growing seasons in summers (Jun.&#8211;Aug.) and either in autumn (Oct.&#8211;Nov.) or from autumn to spring (Oct.&#8211;Mar.). During these periods, groundwater table was on average 17&#8211;29 cm, 28&#8211;30 cm and 36&#8211;40 cm higher, respectively, in the control scenarios when compared to conventional subsurface drainage in different study intervals and emission scenarios. The implementation of controlled drainage reduced annual drain discharge by 21&#8211;46 mm. The projected temporal evolution of the effects of controlled drainage on groundwater levels and annual drain discharges were not monotonous, but the projected effects were larger during the future periods when compared to the historical period. Controlled drainage effect on groundwater levels was seen during both dry and wet years. Controlled drainage was assessed to be an effective method to control field water processes currently and in the future decades. The open collector ditch lowered groundwater levels within a distance of 115 m from the ditch.

Download Full-text

Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12020119 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 119

Author(s):

Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽

Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽

Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽

Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽

Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Tropical Rainforest ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

Download Full-text

Assess 21st century Flash Drought in the United States using high resolution regional climate models

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13102 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Brandi Gamelin ◽

Jiali Wang ◽

V. Rao Kotamarthi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Climate Models ◽

Wrf Model ◽

The United States ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Regional Variability ◽

Groundwater Levels

Flash droughts are the rapid intensification of drought conditions generally associated with increased temperatures and decreased precipitation on short time scales.&#160; Consequently, flash droughts are responsible for reduced soil moisture which contributes to diminished agricultural yields and lower groundwater levels. Drought management, especially flash drought in the United States is vital to address the human and economic impact of crop loss, diminished water resources and increased wildfire risk. In previous research, climate change scenarios show increased growing season (i.e. frost-free days) and drying in soil moisture over most of the United States by 2100. Understanding projected flash drought is important to assess regional variability, frequency and intensity of flash droughts under future climate change scenarios. Data for this work was produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial and boundary conditions for the model were supplied by CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2G, and HadGEM2-ES and based on the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The WRF model was downscaled to a 12 km spatial resolution for three climate time frames: 1995-2004 (Historical), 2045-2054 (Mid), and 2085-2094 (Late). &#160;A key characteristic of flash drought is the rapid onset and intensification of dry conditions. For this, we identify onset with vapor pressure deficit during each time frame. Known flash drought cases during the Historical run are identified and compared to flash droughts in the Mid and Late 21st century.

Download Full-text

Precipitation and Temperature in Costa Rica at the End of the Century Based on NEX-GDDP Projected Scenarios

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11121323 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 1323

Author(s):

Rodrigo Castillo ◽

Jorge A. Amador

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Costa Rica ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Summer Drought ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Economic Activities ◽

Temperature Range ◽

Past Data ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

The evaluation of intraseasonal, seasonal, and annual variability of rainfall and temperature extremes, while using climate change scenarios data, is extremely important for socio-economic activities, such as water resources management. Costa Rica, a climate change hotspot, is largely dependent on rainfall for socioeconomic activities; hence, the relevance of this study. Based on the NEX-GDDP, rainfall and temperature range were analyzed for Costa Rica at the end of the century (2070–2099), while using 1970–1999 as a baseline for six available meteorological stations. Differences between the multimodel ensembles of two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and the historical information were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion region for climate change impacts in Central America, for which projected scenarios suggest an early onset of the rainy season, and a decline in the mid-summer drought (MSD) minimum. The assessment of model data in some regions of Costa Rica, for which historical data were available, suggests that the latter does not capture a well-known regional climate feature, the MSD, in both precipitation and temperature range well. The availability of observed past data sources is a major limitation of this research; however, with the station data used, it is still possible to draw some conclusions regarding future climate in some regions of Costa Rica, especially in the northwest side of the country, where past data are consistent with model information, providing a more reliable picture of changes in climate there that has potential implications for socioeconomic sectors.

Download Full-text

Climate change risks to push large parts of global food production and population centres to unprecedented conditions

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12897 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Matti Kummu ◽

Matias Heino ◽

Maija Taka ◽

Olli Varis ◽

Daniel Viviroli

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Production ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Production Areas ◽

Global Food

The majority of global food production, as we know it, is based on agricultural practices developed within stable Holocene climate conditions. Climate change is altering the key conditions for human societies, such as precipitation, temperature and aridity. Their combined impact on altering the conditions in areas where people live and grow food has not yet, however, been systematically quantified on a global scale. Here, we estimate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) on major population centres and food crop production areas at 5 arc-min scale (~10 km at equator) using Holdridge Life Zones (HLZs), a concept that incorporates all the aforementioned climatic characteristics. We found that if rapid growth of GHG emissions is not halted (RCP 8.5), in year 2070, one fifth of the major food production areas and one fourth of the global population centres would experience climate conditions beyond the ones where food is currently produced, and people are living. Our results thus reinforce the importance of following the RCP 2.6 path, as then only a small fraction of food production (5%) and population centres (6%) would face such unprecedented conditions. Several areas experiencing these unprecedented conditions also have low resilience, such as those within Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. In these countries over 75% of food production and population would experience unprecedented climatic conditions under RCP 8.5. These and many other hotspot areas require the most urgent attention to secure sustainable development and equity.

Download Full-text

Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (Cyclobalanopsis glauca (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China

Forests ◽

10.3390/f13010126 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 126

Author(s):

Lijuan Zhang ◽

Lianqi Zhu ◽

Yanhong Li ◽

Wenbo Zhu ◽

Yingyong Chen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Critical Factor ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Maxent Modelling ◽

The Future ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Increasing Precipitation ◽

Cyclobalanopsis Glauca

Climate change has caused substantial shifts in the geographical distribution of many species. There is growing evidence that many species are migrating in response to climate change. Changes in the distribution of dominant tree species induced by climate change can have an impact not only on organisms such as epiphytes and understory vegetation, but also on the whole ecosystem. Cyclobalanopsis glauca is a dominant tree species in the mingled evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests of China. Understanding their adaptive strategies against climate change is important for understanding the future community structure. We employed the Maxent framework to model current suitable habitats of C. glauca under current climate conditions and predicted it onto the climate scenarios for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 using 315 occurrence data. Our results showed that annual precipitation was the most critical factor for the distribution of C. glauca. In the future, increasing precipitation would reduce the limitation of water on habitats, leading to an expansion of the distribution to a higher latitude and higher altitude. At the same time, there were habitat contractions at the junction of the Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces. This study can provide vital information for the management of C. glauca, and serve as a reminder for managers to protect C. glauca in the range contraction areas.

Download Full-text

Impacts of climate change on the first occurrence of the Light blight (Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary 1876)

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis ◽

10.11118/actaun200856020267 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 56 (2) ◽

pp. 267-276

Author(s):

Zdeněk Žalud ◽

M. Trnka ◽

M. Dubrovský ◽

E. Kocmánková

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Phytophthora Infestans ◽

Crop Production ◽

Weather Data ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Critical Number ◽

State Institute ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Number Curve

The increase in the infestation pressure of various pathogens will be one the most important factors limiting the crop production under the future climate conditions. Weather driven NegFry model has been used for estimating future Phytophthora infestans occurrence at four experimental potato stations of the State Institute for Agriculture Supervision and Testing. Both the infestation dates of Phytophthora infestans occurrence and the shape of the critical number curve were analyzed using observed weather data as well as datasets constructed according to four climate change scenarios that were based on two global circulation models. The results show the shift of the infestation pressure to the beginning of the year and describe increasing trend of critical number reaching to detecting of the first Phytophthora infestans occurrence for 2025 and 2050. Scenarios created according to HadCM and SRES – A2 seem to be more suitable for disease development.

Download Full-text

Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the groundwater system

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-16-1517-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 16 (5) ◽

pp. 1517-1531 ◽

Cited By ~ 38

Author(s):

J. Dams ◽

E. Salvadore ◽

T. Van Daele ◽

V. Ntegeka ◽

P. Willems ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Groundwater Level ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Close Monitoring ◽

Reference Period ◽

Groundwater System ◽

Groundwater Levels ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Given the importance of groundwater for food production and drinking water supply, but also for the survival of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on this freshwater resource. In this paper we study with high temporal and spatial resolution the impact of 28 climate change scenarios on the groundwater system of a lowland catchment in Belgium. Our results show for the scenario period 2070–2101 compared with the reference period 1960–1991, a change in annual groundwater recharge between −20% and +7%. On average annual groundwater recharge decreases 7%. In most scenarios the recharge increases during winter but decreases during summer. The altered recharge patterns cause the groundwater level to decrease significantly from September to January. On average the groundwater level decreases about 7 cm with a standard deviation between the scenarios of 5 cm. Groundwater levels in interfluves and upstream areas are more sensitive to climate change than groundwater levels in the river valley. Groundwater discharge to GWDTEs is expected to decrease during late summer and autumn as much as 10%, though the discharge remains at reference-period level during winter and early spring. As GWDTEs are strongly influenced by temporal dynamics of the groundwater system, close monitoring of groundwater and implementation of adaptive management measures are required to prevent ecological loss.

Download Full-text

Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11060684 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 684

Author(s):

Yang Liu ◽

Juan Shi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South America ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Scientific Management ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Invasive Pests ◽

Suitable Habitats

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including insects. Icerya aegyptiaca (Douglas) and I. purchasi Maskell are two polyphagous and invasive pests in the genus Icerya Signoret (Hemiptera: Monophlebidae) and cause serious damage to many landscape and economic trees. However, the global habitats suitable for these two Icerya species are unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the potentially suitable habitats of these two species, then to provide scientific management strategies. Using MaxEnt software, the potential risk maps of I. aegyptiaca and I. purchasi were created based on their occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors. The results suggested that under current climate conditions, the potentially habitable area of I. aegyptiaca would be much larger than the current distribution and there would be small changes for I. purchasi. In the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of these two insect species will display an increasing trend. Africa, South America and Asia would be more suitable for I. aegyptiaca. South America, Asia and Europe would be more suitable for I. purchasi. Moreover, most of the highly habitat suitability areas of I. aegyptiaca will become concentrated in Southern Asia. The results also suggested that “min temperature of coldest month” was the most important environmental factor affecting the prediction models of these two insects. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policies to manage and control these two invasive pests of the genus Icerya.

Download Full-text

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Groundwater-Level Behavior Using SWAT Groundwater-Consumption Function in Geum River Basin of South Korea

Water ◽

10.3390/w11050949 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 949 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jiwan Lee ◽

Chunggil Jung ◽

Sehoon Kim ◽

Seongjoon Kim

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South Korea ◽

Ground Water ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Use ◽

Groundwater Level ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Groundwater Levels ◽

The Future ◽

And Storage

This study was to evaluate the groundwater-level behavior in Geum River Basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea with HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios and future groundwater use data using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Before evaluating future groundwater behavior, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the daily inflows and storage of two dams (DCD and YDD) in the basin for 11 years (2005–2015), the daily groundwater-level observation data at five locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR, CASS, and BYBY), and the daily inflow and storage of three weir locations (SJW, GJW, and BJW) for three years and five months (August 2012 to December 2015). The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) of two dam inflows was 0.55–0.70 and 0.67–0.75. For the inflows of the three weirs, NSE was 0.57–0.77 and R2 was 0.62–0.81. The average R2 value for the groundwater levels of the five locations ranged from 0.53 to 0.61. After verifying the SWAT for hydrologic components, we evaluated the behavior of future groundwater levels by future climate change scenarios and estimated future ground water use by Korean water vision 2020 based on ground water use monitoring data. The future groundwater-level decreased by −13.0, −5.0, and −9.0 cm at three upstream locations (JSJS, OCCS, and BEMR) among the five groundwater-level observation locations and increased by +3.0 and +1.0 cm at two downstream locations (CASS and BYBY). The future groundwater level was directly affected by the groundwater recharge, which was dependent on the seasonal and spatial precipitations in the basin.

Download Full-text