scholarly journals Pesonalising weather forecasts using AI techniques

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Stamoulis ◽  
Panos Giannopoulos
Keyword(s):  
General Public ◽  
Visual Representations ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Receiver Side ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Personal Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Over Time

<p>Communicating the scientific data of the weather forecasts to the general public has always been a challenge. Using computer graphics’ visual representations to convey the message to television viewers and through weather apps and websites has certainly helped a lot to popularize the weather forecast consumption by the general public. However, these representations are not information rich since they are abstraction; moreover they are not always very actionable on the receiver side to help one decide how s/he will “live” the forecast weather conditions. Therefore, there is a need to personalize the forecast based on past user experience and personal needs. The forecast has to become more human- and needs-oriented and more focused to the particular requirements of each individual person. The challenge is to move from providing the abstraction of atmospheric information to a real sense of how the weather will "feel" to the individual.</p><p>We therefore propose a new co-creation process in which the audience is called on to provide a daily feedback on how they lived the weather conditions personally, so that, “my personal forecast” can be produced making the forecast more actionable on the user side. Preliminary, but more personalized, such attempts include the “feels like” temperature forecasts. To arrive at the “my personal forecast”, AI-based recommender systems need to be applied, using fuzzy logic as the appropriate method for the user to express how s/he actually lived personally lived weather conditions every day. Over time this information can then be used to transform science-based descriptions of weather conditions into a sense of how the weather will be experienced at a personal level.</p>

scholarly journals How Can Existing Ground-Based Profiling Instruments Improve European Weather Forecasts?

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (4) ◽  
pp. 605-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Illingworth ◽  
D. Cimini ◽  
A. Haefele ◽  
M. Haeffelin ◽  
M. Hervo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Wind Lidar ◽  
Microwave Radiometers

Abstract To realize the promise of improved predictions of hazardous weather such as flash floods, wind storms, fog, and poor air quality from high-resolution mesoscale models, the forecast models must be initialized with an accurate representation of the current state of the atmosphere, but the lowest few kilometers are hardly accessible by satellite, especially in dynamically active conditions. We report on recent European developments in the exploitation of existing ground-based profiling instruments so that they are networked and able to send data in real time to forecast centers. The three classes of instruments are i) automatic lidars and ceilometers providing backscatter profiles of clouds, aerosols, dust, fog, and volcanic ash, the last two being especially important for air traffic control; ii) Doppler wind lidars deriving profiles of wind, turbulence, wind shear, wind gusts, and low-level jets; and iii) microwave radiometers estimating profiles of temperature and humidity in nearly all weather conditions. The project includes collaboration from 22 European countries and 15 European national weather services, which involves the implementation of common operating procedures, instrument calibrations, data formats, and retrieval algorithms. Currently, data from 265 ceilometers in 19 countries are being distributed in near–real time to national weather forecast centers; this should soon rise to many hundreds. One wind lidar is currently delivering real time data rising to 5 by the end of 2019, and the plan is to incorporate radiometers in 2020. Initial data assimilation tests indicate a positive impact of the new data.

scholarly journals Weather Forecast Use for Winter Recreation*

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Rutty ◽  
Jean Andrey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mobile Devices ◽  
General Public ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Empirical Basis ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Winter Recreation ◽  
Context Specific

Abstract Recent studies have begun to address the importance of weather information for leisure activities. This paper contributes to the understanding of how weather information is sourced, perceived, and used for the discretionary and weather-dependent winter activities of skiing, snowboarding, and snowmobiling. A survey of 1948 Ontario (Canada) skiers/snowboarders and snowmobilers is the empirical basis for the paper, providing insights into how winter recreationists are both similar to and different from the general public with respect to weather information. Results show that virtually all (≥97%) skiers/snowboarders and snowmobilers use weather forecasts when planning an outing, which are primarily (≥95%) sourced through Internet and mobile devices. Skiers/snowboarders and snowmobilers are also highly attentive to rain and freezing rain variables in the forecast, as it negatively affects participation. The results also demonstrate the importance of forecast use for planning travel to snow resorts and snowmobile trails, with poor road conditions likely to result in a postponed or cancelled trip. These findings underscore the differing weather needs of subpopulations, with the need for continued research to examine variations among weather forecast users for context specific decision making.

Success of the co-production and delivery of local and scientific weather forecasts information with and for smallholder farmers in Ghana

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Talardia Gbangou ◽  
Rebecca Sarku ◽  
Erik Vanslobbe ◽  
Fulco Ludwig ◽  
Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Modern Technology ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Extension Agents ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Local Farmers

<p>Many West African farmers struggle to cope with changing weather and climatic conditions that keep them from making optimal decisions and meeting food and income security. The development of more accessible and credible weather and climate services (WCIS) can help local farmers improve their adaptive capacity. Such adequate WCIS often requires a joined collaboration between farmers and scientists to co-create an integrated local and scientific forecasting knowledge. We examine (i) the design requirements (i.e. Both technical and non-technical tools) and (ii) evaluate the outcomes of a successful implementation of the co-production and delivery of WCIS in Ada East district, Ghana. We implemented a user-driven design approach in a citizen science experiment involving prototype design and testing, training workshops, and interviews with farmers, agricultural and meteorological extension agents from 2018 to 2019. Farmers were handed with digital tools (i.e. Smart phones with web and mobile applications) and rain gauges as research instruments to collect and receive weather forecast data, and interact with scientists.</p><p>               Our results show that farmers’ engagement increased over time and is associated with the trainings and the improvement of the design features of the applications used. The evaluation shows an increase in the usability of tools, the reach or networking with other farmers, and the understanding of uncertainty (probabilistic) aspect of the forecasts over time. Local farmers evaluated both the local and scientific forecasts as accurate enough and useful for their daily farming decisions. We concluded that using modern technology in a co-production process, with targeted training, can improve the access and use of weather forecasts information.</p>

scholarly journals Leveraging Different Visual Designs for Communication of Severe Weather Events and their Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ananya Pandya ◽  
Nathalie Popovic ◽  
Alexandra Diehl ◽  
Ian Ruginski ◽  
Sara Fabrikant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Public ◽  
User Study ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Visual Display ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Uncertainty Visualization ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Extensive Evaluation ◽  
Weather Events

<p>Effective communication of potential weather hazards and its uncertainty to the general public is key to prevent and mitigate negative outcomes from weather hazards. The general public needs effective tools at hand that can allow them to make the best decision as possible during a severe weather event. Currently, there are many approaches for weather forecast visualization, such as contour and thematic maps [5]. However, guidelines and best practices in visualization can help to improve these designs and make them more effective [1, 2].</p><p>In this work, we present several interactive visual designs for mobile visualization of severe weather events for the communication of weather hazards, their risks, uncertainty, and recommended actions. Our approach is based on previous work on uncertainty visualization [5], cognitive science [6], and decision sciences for risk management [3, 4]. We propose six configurations that vary the ratio of text vs graphics used in the visual display, and the interaction workflow needed for a non-expert user to make an informed decision and effective actions. Our goal is to test how efficient these configurations are and to what degree they are suitable to communicate weather hazards, associated uncertainty, risk, and recommended actions to non-experts. Future steps include two cycle of evaluations, consisting of a first pilot to rapidly test the prototype with a small number of participants, collect actionable insights, and incorporate potential improvements. In a second user study, we will perform a crowd-sourced extensive evaluation of the visualization prototypes.</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>[1] A. Diehl, A. Abdul-Rahman, M. El-Assady, B. Bach, D. A. Keim, and M. Chen. Visguides: A forum for discussing visualization guidelines. In <em>Proceedings of the EuroVis Short Papers</em>, pages 61–65, 2018.</p><p>[2]  A. Diehl, E. E. Firat, T. Torsney-Weir, A. Abdul-Rahman, B. Bach, R. S. Laramee, R. Pajarola, and M. Chen. VisGuided: A community-driven approach for education in visualization.  In Proceedings Eurographics Education Papers, to appear, 2021.</p><p>[3] N. Fleischhut and S. M. Herzog. Wie laesst sich die unsicherheit von vorhersagen sinnvoll kommu- nizieren? In <em>Wetterwarnungen: Von der Extremereignisinformation zu Kommunikation und Handlung. Beiträge aus dem Forschungsprojekt WEXICOM</em>, pages 63–81. 2019.</p><p>[4] G. Gigerenzer, R. Hertwig, E. Van Den Broek, B. Fasolo, and K. V. Katsikopoulos. “A 30% chance of rain tomorrow”: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? <em>Risk Analysis: An International Journal</em>, 25(3):623–629, 2005.</p><p>[5] I. Kübler, K.-F. Richter, and S. I. Fabrikant. Against all odds: multicriteria decision making with hazard prediction maps depicting uncertainty. <em>Annals of the American Association of Geographers</em>, 110(3):661–683, 2020.</p><p>[6] L. M. Padilla, I. T. Ruginski, and S. H. Creem-Regehr. Effects of ensemble and summary displays on interpretations of geospatial uncertainty data. <em>Cognitive research: principles and implications</em>, 2(1):1–16, 2017.</p>

Spot Weather Forecasts: Improving Utilization, Communication, and Perceptions of Accuracy in Sophisticated User Groups

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara U. Wall ◽  
Timothy J. Brown ◽  
Nicholas J. Nauslar
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Fire ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Improving Accuracy ◽  
Sophisticated User ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Spot weather forecasts (SWFs) are issued by Weather Service offices throughout the United States and are primarily for use by wildfire and prescribed fire practitioners for monitoring local-scale weather conditions. This paper focuses on use of SWFs by prescribed fire practitioners. Based on qualitative, in-depth interviews with fire practitioners and National Weather Service forecasters, this paper examines factors that influence perceptions of accuracy and utilization of SWFs. Results indicate that, while several well-understood climatological, topographical, and data-driven factors influence forecast accuracy, social factors likely have the greater impact on perceptions of accuracy, quantitative accuracy, and utilization. These include challenges with building and maintaining relationships between forecasters and fire managers, communication issues around updating SWFs, and communicating forecast confidence and uncertainty. Operationally, improved quantitative skill in a forecast is always desirable, but key opportunities for improving accuracy and utilization of these forecasts lie in 1) enhancing the processes and mechanisms for communication between a Weather Forecast Office and fire practitioners—before, during, and after an SWFs is issued—and 2) working with the wildland fire community to experiment with forecast uncertainty and confidence information in SWFs and evaluate impacts of these approaches.

On the Individual

1999 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 205-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Magnusson
Keyword(s):  
School Psychologist ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Developmental Research ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Over Time

A description of two cases from my time as a school psychologist in the middle of the 1950s forms the background to the following question: Has anything important happened since then in psychological research to help us to a better understanding of how and why individuals think, feel, act, and react as they do in real life and how they develop over time? The studies serve as a background for some general propositions about the nature of the phenomena that concerns us in developmental research, for a summary description of the developments in psychological research over the last 40 years as I see them, and for some suggestions about future directions.

Geographical aspects of the diffusion of passive houses

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Kozma ◽  
E. Molnár ◽  
K. Czimre ◽  
J. Pénzes
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Substantial Part ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Passive House ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Passive Houses ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Geographical Locations ◽  
Over Time

Abstract In our days, energy issues belong to the most important problems facing the Earth and the solution may be expected partly from decreasing the amount of the energy used and partly from the increased utilisation of renewable energy resources. A substantial part of energy consumption is related to buildings and includes, inter alia, the use for cooling/heating, lighting and cooking purposes. In the view of the above, special attention has been paid to minimising the energy consumption of buildings since the late 1980s. Within the framework of that, the passive house was created, a building in which the thermal comfort can be achieved solely by postheating or postcooling of the fresh air mass without a need for recirculated air. The aim of the paper is to study the changes in the construction of passive houses over time. In addition, the differences between the geographical locations and the observable peculiarities with regard to the individual building types are also presented.

PERSONALIZED APPROACH TO THE ORGANIZATION OF MEDICAL CARE FOR PATIENTS WITH WEATHER DEPENDENCE

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-39
Author(s):  
Klepikov O.V. ◽  
Kolyagina N.M. ◽  
Berezhnova T.A. ◽  
Kulintsova Ya.V.
Keyword(s):  
Medical Care ◽  
Cardiovascular System ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Outpatient Clinics ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Pathological Effect ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Personalized Approach

Relevance. Today, in preventive medicine, climatic conditions that have a pathological effect on the functional state of a person are increasingly being updated. the occurrence of exacerbations of many diseases can be causally associated with various weather conditions. Aim: to develop the main tasks for improving the organization of medical care for weather-dependent patients with diseases of the cardiovascular system. Material and methods. The assessment of personnel, material and technical support and the main performance indicators of an outpatient clinic was carried out on the example of the Voronezh city polyclinic No. 18 to develop the main tasks for improving the organization of medical care for weather-dependent patients with diseases of the cardiovascular system. Results. The main personnel problem is the low staffing of district therapists and specialists of a narrow service. One of the priorities for reducing the burden on medical hospitals is the organization of inpatient replacement medical care on the basis of outpatient clinics. The indicators for the implementation of state guarantees for the outpatient network for 2018, which were fully implemented, are given. The analysis of the planned load performance by polyclinic specialists is presented. Cardiological and neurological services carry out measures to reduce the risk of exacerbations of diseases with cerebral atherosclerosis, hypertension, and major neurological nosologies. Conclusion. Improving the organization of medical care for weather-dependent patients with cardiovascular diseases are: informing patients about the sources of specialized medical weather forecasts in the region, organizing the work of the medical prevention office, implementing an interdepartmental approach to providing health care to the most vulnerable groups of the population.

Personality change and environmental concerns

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher James Hopwood ◽  
Ted Schwaba ◽  
Wiebke Bleidorn
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Personality Change ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Big Five Personality ◽  
German Population ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Sustainable Behavior ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Over Time

Personal concerns about climate change and the environment are a powerful motivator of sustainable behavior. People’s level of concern varies as a function of a variety of social and individual factors. Using data from 58,748 participants from a nationally representative German sample, we tested preregistered hypotheses about factors that impact concerns about the environment over time. We found that environmental concerns increased modestly from 2009-2017 in the German population. However, individuals in middle adulthood tended to be more concerned and showed more consistent increases in concern over time than younger or older people. Consistent with previous research, Big Five personality traits were correlated with environmental concerns. We present novel evidence that increases in concern were related to increases in the personality traits neuroticism and openness to experience. Indeed, changes in openness explained roughly 50% of the variance in changes in environmental concerns. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the individual level factors associated with changes in environmental concerns over time, towards the promotion of more sustainable behavior at the individual level.

scholarly journals AnANN Model Trained on Regional Data in the Prediction of Particular Weather Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4757
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Bączkiewicz ◽  
Jarosław Wątróbski ◽  
Wojciech Sałabun ◽  
Joanna Kołodziejczyk
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Life Problems ◽  
The World ◽  
The City

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have proven to be a powerful tool for solving a wide variety of real-life problems. The possibility of using them for forecasting phenomena occurring in nature, especially weather indicators, has been widely discussed. However, the various areas of the world differ in terms of their difficulty and ability in preparing accurate weather forecasts. Poland lies in a zone with a moderate transition climate, which is characterized by seasonality and the inflow of many types of air masses from different directions, which, combined with the compound terrain, causes climate variability and makes it difficult to accurately predict the weather. For this reason, it is necessary to adapt the model to the prediction of weather conditions and verify its effectiveness on real data. The principal aim of this study is to present the use of a regressive model based on a unidirectional multilayer neural network, also called a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), to predict selected weather indicators for the city of Szczecin in Poland. The forecast of the model we implemented was effective in determining the daily parameters at 96% compliance with the actual measurements for the prediction of the minimum and maximum temperature for the next day and 83.27% for the prediction of atmospheric pressure.

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