scholarly journals Continuous national gross domestic product (GDP) time series for 195 countries: past observations (1850–2005) harmonized with future projections according to the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (2006–2100)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 847-856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Geiger
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Past ◽  
Online Archive ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Climate Impact Research

Abstract. Gross domestic product (GDP) represents a widely used metric to compare economic development across time and space. GDP estimates have been routinely assembled only since the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, making comparisons with prior periods cumbersome or even impossible. In recent years various efforts have been put forward to re-estimate national GDP for specific years in the past centuries and even millennia, providing new insights into past economic development on a snapshot basis. In order to make this wealth of data utilizable across research disciplines, we here present a first continuous and consistent data set of GDP time series for 195 countries from 1850 to 2009, based mainly on data from the Maddison Project and other population and GDP sources. The GDP data are consistent with Penn World Tables v8.1 and future GDP projections from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), and are freely available at http://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2018.010 (Geiger and Frieler, 2018). To ease usability, we additionally provide GDP per capita data and further supplementary and data description files in the online archive. We utilize various methods to handle missing data and discuss the advantages and limitations of our methodology. Despite known shortcomings this data set provides valuable input, e.g., for climate impact research, in order to consistently analyze economic impacts from pre-industrial times to the future.

scholarly journals Continuous national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) time series for 195 countries: past observations (1850–2005) harmonized with future projections according to the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (2006–2100)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Geiger
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Past ◽  
Online Archive ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Climate Impact Research

Abstract. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents a widely used metric to compare economic development across time and space. GDP estimates have been routinely assembled only since the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, making comparisons with prior periods cumbersome or even impossible. In recent years various efforts have been put forward to re-estimate national GDP for specific years in the past centuries and even millennia, providing new insights of past economic development on a snapshot basis. In order to make this wealth of data utilizable across research disciplines, we here present a first continuous and consistent data set of GDP time series for 195 countries from 1850 to 2009, based mainly on data from the Maddison Project and other population and GDP sources. The GDP data is consistent with Penn World Tables v8.1 and future GDP projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and freely available at https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2017.003. To ease usability, we additionally provide GPD per capita data and further supplementary and data description files in the online archive. We utilize various methods to handle missing data and discuss the advantages and limitations of our methodology. Despite known shortcomings this data set provides valuable input e.g. for climate impact research in order to consistently analyze economic impacts from pre-industrial times to the future.

The relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product in Hong Kong (1992–2015): Evidence from sectoral analysis and implications on future energy policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-236
Author(s):  
Ruixiaoxiao Zhang ◽  
Geoffrey QP Shen ◽  
Meng Ni ◽  
Johnny Wong
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Per Capita

The causal relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product in Hong Kong from 1992 to 2015 is investigated in this study. Different from the previous studies focusing on the causal relationship between total energy consumption and total gross domestic product per capita, this study further investigates the causal relationship from sectoral perspective, including residential, commercial, industrial and transportation sectors. For each sector, the time series data of sectoral energy consumption and sectoral per capita value added are collected. To conduct the Granger causality test, the unit root test is first applied to analyse the stationarity of time series. The cointegration test is then employed to examine whether causal relationship exists in long-term. Finally, based on the aforementioned tests, both vector error correction model and vector autoregression model can be selected to determine the Granger causality between time series. It is interesting to find that the sectoral energy consumption and corresponding sectoral per capita value-added exhibit quite different causal relationships. For both residential sector and commercial sectors, a unidirectional causal relationship is found running from the sectoral per capita value added to sectoral energy consumption. Oppositely, for industrial sector and transportation sector, a unidirectional causal relationship is found running from sectoral energy consumption to sectoral per capita value added. Regarding the Granger causality test results, the indicative suggestions on energy conservation policies, energy efficiency policies and greenhouse gas emission reduction policies are discussed based on the background of Hong Kong’s economic structure and fuel types.

scholarly journals The Asymmetrical Effects of Economic Development on Consumption-based and Production-based Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990 to 2014

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 237802311877362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorui Huang ◽  
Andrew K. Jorgenson
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
National Data ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cross National

The authors examine the potentially asymmetrical relationship between economic development and consumption-based and production-based CO2 emissions. They decompose economic development into economic expansions and contractions, measured separately as increases and decreases in gross domestic product per capita, and examine their unique effects on emissions. Analyzing cross-national data from 1990 to 2014, the authors find no statistical evidence of asymmetry for the overall sample. However, for a sample restricted to nations with populations larger than 10 million, the authors observe a contraction-leaning asymmetry whereby the effects of economic contraction on both emissions outcomes are larger in magnitude than the effects of economic expansion. This difference in magnitude is more pronounced for consumption-based emissions than for production-based emissions. The authors provide tentative explanations for the variations in results across the different samples and emissions measures and underscore the need for more nuanced research and deeper theorization on potential asymmetry in the relationship between economic development and anthropogenic emissions.

scholarly journals Impact of self-perceptions, social norms, and social capital on nascent entrepreneurs: a comparative analysis by level of economic development in Latin American countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo Barrera-Verdugo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Nascent Entrepreneurs ◽  
Social Variables ◽  
Self Perceptions ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractThe impact of individual psychological and social conditions on participation in entrepreneurship has been widely studied. However, little is known about these variables’ comparative influence on the development of nascent ventures in countries with different levels of gross domestic product per capita. This research compares the effects of self-perceptions, perceived subjective norms, and first-hand connections with entrepreneurs on participation in nascent entrepreneurs in Latin America. Logistic regressions are performed and the resulting coefficient magnitudes and pseudo-R2 values compared for the populations of 11 countries in this region. The evidence reveals heterogeneity in the effect of these psychological and social attributes on nascent ventures’ creation process, conditional on different levels of gross domestic product per capita. Notably, higher economic development is positively related to a greater influence of these perceptual and social variables. The findings enhance understanding of the effects of key variables from theories of entrepreneurial behaviour, incorporating economic development level as a new determinant. In addition, the results could guide programmes aimed at strengthening entrepreneurship in Latin America by supporting the adaptation of efforts to support nascent entrepreneurship according to the influence of perceptual and social variables in different countries.

scholarly journals Deep Assessment Methodology Using Fractional Calculus on Mathematical Modeling and Prediction of Gross Domestic Product per Capita of Countries

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 633
Author(s):  
Ertuğrul Karaçuha ◽  
Vasil Tabatadze ◽  
Kamil Karaçuha ◽  
Nisa Özge Önal ◽  
Esra Ergün
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fractional Calculus ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Assessment Methodology ◽  
Fractional Model ◽  
Modeling And Prediction ◽  
Per Capita

In this study, a new approach for time series modeling and prediction, “deep assessment methodology,” is proposed and the performance is reported on modeling and prediction for upcoming years of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The proposed methodology expresses a function with the finite summation of its previous values and derivatives combining fractional calculus and the Least Square Method to find unknown coefficients. The dataset of GDP per capita used in this study includes nine countries (Brazil, China, India, Italy, Japan, the UK, the USA, Spain and Turkey) and the European Union. The modeling performance of the proposed model is compared with the Polynomial model and the Fractional model and prediction performance is compared to a special type of neural network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), that used for time series. Results show that using Deep Assessment Methodology yields promising modeling and prediction results for GDP per capita. The proposed method is outperforming Polynomial model and Fractional model by 1.538% and by 1.899% average error rates, respectively. We also show that Deep Assessment Method (DAM) is superior to plain LSTM on prediction for upcoming GDP per capita values by 1.21% average error.

Индустријализација и раст бруто друштвеног производа // The Industrialization and Growth of Gross Domestic Product

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 151
Author(s):  
Брано Маркић ◽  
Сања Бијакшић ◽  
Арнела Беванда
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Резиме: Рад је истраживање и емпиријска верификација закона Ницхолас Калдора о утицају индустријске производње на раст бруто друштвеног производа. Калдор је формулисао принципе економског раста у облику три закона који настоје утврдити кључне узроке економског раста. Први његов закон тврди да је стопа раста привреде позитивно корелирана са стопом раста њезина производног сектора. Индустрија као најважнија снага развоја привреде се поодавно анализира у литератури о привредном развоју: Hirschman (1961), Rosenstein-Rodan (1943), Th irnjall (2013), Cornnjall (1977). Циљ рада је емпиријски провјерити Калдоров приступ расту и развоју у Федерацији Босне и Херцеговине. Стога је обликован посебан скуп података кога чине дводимензионалне табеле и временске серије. Регресијском анализом је квантификована повезаност између стопа раста бруто друштвеног производа и стопе раста индустријске производње.Summary: The paper the industrialization and the growth of gross domestic product is a research and empirical verification of Nicholas Kaldor laws on the impact of industrial production to GDP growth. Kaldor has formulated the principles of economic growth in the form of three laws that tend to identify key causes of economic growth. His first law asserts that the rate of economic growth is positively correlated with the rate of growth of its manufacturing sector. Industry as the most important force of economic development is widely analyzed in the literature on economic development (Hirschman (1961), Rosenstein-Rodan (1943), Thirwall (2013), Cornwall (1977)). The aim is to empirically test the Kaldor’s approach to growth and development in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is therefore designed a special data set consisting of two-dimensional tables and time series. Using regression analysis was quantified the relationship between the growth rate of gross domestic product and the growth of industrial production. 

scholarly journals MASYARAKAT EKONOMI ASEAN (MEA) SETELAH TIGA TAHUN PENGIMPLEMENTASIAN DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gita Paramita Agustin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Asean Economic Community

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is a community of ASEAN countries having a vision and mission to further enhance the welfare of ASEAN countries. The AEC makes the boundaries that were more complicated and difficult to run easier and there are almost no restrictions at all in terms of the economy. There are several advantages and disadvantages with the enactment of the AEC in Indonesia. The AEC is expected to further improve the economy in Indonesia. The level of export imports, poverty rates and the number of unemployed and the level of income per capita and gross domestic product are indicators in measuring the economic development in a country. To find out the success of the AEC which has been running for 3 years, this study will compare these indicators before and after the enactment of the AEC in Indonesia. Keywords: ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), import exports, poverty rates, unemployment, per capita income and gross domestic product.

scholarly journals Forecasting Zambia’s Gross Domestic Product Using Time Series Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. 440-447
Author(s):  
Chikumbe Evans Sankwa ◽  
Sikota Sharper
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Social Indicators ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Study Results

Gross Domestic Product is one of the social indicators of development. This study attempts to model Zambia’s Gross domestic product using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. This model has proved to help many countries during economic recession or when there is any disruption in the economic system due to pandemics or natural disasters. The study utilized a time series dataset from 1960 to 2018. The best model that fit the data set, following the selection model criteria, was ARIMA (5,2,0) model with the lowest Akaike’s Information Criteria(AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) and smallest volatility. The study results showed that, on average, Zambia’s gross domestic product will continue to rise over the next eight years. However, few recession (decline) points are expected in the period 2020 to 2022. It is hoped that the forecasts would be useful for researchers in Zambia, including the fiscal and monetary policy makers.

scholarly journals Models With Varying Parameters as A Tool to Classify Polish Voivodships in 2002-2008

2010 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-150
Author(s):  
Barbara Batóg ◽  
Katarzyna Wawrzyniak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Similar Pattern ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Varying Parameters ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Per Capita

Models With Varying Parameters as A Tool to Classify Polish Voivodships in 2002-2008 One of the often used measures of economic development is gross domestic product per capita. In Poland the Main Statistical Office collects the data on this variable on several levels of aggregation. The paper shows the application of panel data models in order to classify Polish voivodships according to the level of economic development. As explained variable the regional GDP per capita was used and such variables as structure of employees, unemployment rate or retail sales per capita were the explaining variables. As a result the groups of voivodships with similar pattern of economic development were distinguished.

International Comparisons: Selected Mental Health Data

1992 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 723-726
Author(s):  
Y. G. Pillay
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
International Comparisons ◽  
Psychiatric Hospitals ◽  
Health Data ◽  
Psychiatric Services ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The data set from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) was explored to investigate the relationship of gross domestic product (which provides an indication of the wealth of a country) and the provision of psychiatric services (specifically inpatient psychiatric services) in selected OECD countries. Gross domestic product per capita correlated .84 with expenditure per capita on psychiatric hospitals but r was zero between number of beds per 1000 population and length of stay.

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