scholarly journals Two decades of flask observations of atmospheric δO<sub>2</sub>/N<sub>2</sub>, CO<sub>2</sub>, and APO at stations Lutjewad (the Netherlands) and Mace Head (Ireland) plus 3 years from Halley station (Antarctica)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linh N. T. Nguyen ◽  
Harro A. J. Meijer ◽  
Charlotte van Leeuwen ◽  
Bert A. M. Kers ◽  
Bert A. Scheeren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
East Anglia ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The University ◽  
Gas Cylinders

Abstract. We present 20-year flask sample records of atmospheric CO2, δO2/N2 and APO from the stations Lutjewad (the Netherlands) and Mace Head (Ireland) and a 3-year record from Halley station (Antarctica), including details of the extensive calibration procedure and its stability over time. The results of our inter-comparison involving gas cylinders from various research laboratories worldwide also show that our calibration is of high quality and compatible with the internationally recognised Scripps scale. The measurement records from Lutjewad and Mace Head show similar long-term trends during the period 2002–2018 of 2.31 ± 0.07 ppm yr−1 for CO2 and −21.2 ± 0.8 per meg yr−1 for δO2/N2 at Lutjewad, and 2.22 ± 0.04 ppm yr−1 for CO2 and −21.3 ± 0.9 per meg yr−1 for δO2/N2 at Mace Head. They also show a similar δO2/N2 seasonal cycle with an amplitude of 54 ± 4 per meg at Lutjewad and 61 ± 5 per meg at Mace Head, while CO2 seasonal amplitude at Lutjewad (16.8 ± 0.5 ppm) is slightly higher than that at Mace Head (14.8 ± 0.3 ppm). We show that the observed trends and seasonal cycles are compatible with the measurements from various stations, especially the measurements from Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory (United Kingdom). However, there are remarkable differences in the progression of annual trends between the Mace Head and Lutjewad records for δO2/N2 and APO, which might in part be caused by sampling differences, but also by environmental effects, such as the North Atlantic Ocean oxygen ventilation changes to which Mace Head is more sensitive. The Halley record shows clear trends and seasonality in δO2/N2 and APO, where especially APO agrees well with the continuous measurements at Halley by the University of East Anglia, while CO2 and δO2/N2 present slight disagreements, most likely caused by small leakages during sampling. From our 2002–2018 records, we find good agreement for the global ocean sink: 2.0 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1 and 2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1, based on Lutjewad and Mace Head, respectively. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/qq7d-t060 (Nguyen et al., 2021).

scholarly journals An Analysis of the 8.85- and 4.42-Year Cycles in the Gulf of Maine

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1362
Author(s):  
Xiaolong Zong ◽  
Ruzhen Zhang ◽  
Shuwen Zhang ◽  
Fangjing Deng ◽  
Wei Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Gulf Of Maine ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Tide Gauges ◽  
The North ◽  
Point Scheme ◽  
Harmonic Analysis Method ◽  
Long Term Trends

In the background of global warming and climate change, nuisance flooding is only caused by astronomical tides, which could be modulated by the nodal cycle. Therefore, much attention should be paid to the variation in the amplitude of the nodal cycle. In this paper, we utilize the enhanced harmonic analysis method and the independent point scheme to obtain the time-dependent amplitudes of the 8.85-year cycle of N2 tide and the 4.42-year cycle of 2N2 tide based on water level records of four tide gauges in the Gulf of Maine. Results indicate that the long-term trends of N2 and 2N2 tides vary spatially, which may be affected by the sea-level rise, coastal defenses, and other possible climate-related mechanisms. The comparison between Halifax and Eastport reveals that the topography greatly influences the amplitudes of those cycles. Moreover, a quasi 20-year oscillation is obvious in the 8.85-year cycle of N2 tide. This oscillation probably relates to a 20-year mode in the North Atlantic Ocean.

scholarly journals Seasonal Influences upon and Long-Term Trends in the Length of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliana M. Karloski ◽  
Clark Evans
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Variability ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
Subseasonal Variability ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract Considering a subset of the North Atlantic Ocean south of 30°N and east of 75°W, Kossin found that the Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) season increased in length, at 80%–90% confidence, by about 2 days per year between 1980 and 2007. It is uncertain, however, whether the same is true over the entire Atlantic basin or when the analysis is extended to 2014. Separately, it is unclear whether meaningful subseasonal variability in the environmental factors necessary for TC formation exists between early- and late-starting (ending) seasons. Quantile regression is used to evaluate long-term trends in Atlantic TC season length. No statistically significant trend in season length exists for the period 1979–2007 when considering the entire Atlantic basin or for the period 1979–2014 independent of the portion of the basin considered. Linear regression applied to June and November monthly mean reanalysis data is used to examine subseasonal environmental variability between early- and late-starting (ending) seasons. Within an otherwise favorable environment for genesis, early-starting seasons are associated with increased lower-tropospheric relative vorticity where most early-season TCs form. Late-ending seasons are associated with La Niña, negative-phase Pacific decadal oscillation events, and environmental conditions that promote an increased likelihood of TC development along the preferred genesis pathways for late-season TCs. While confidence in these results is relatively high, they explain only a small portion of the total variation in Atlantic TC season length. More research is needed to understand how variability on all time scales influences Atlantic TC season length and its predictability.

A Stochastic Model for Long-Term Trends in Significant Wave Height With a CO2 Regression Component

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Vanem
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Maritime Transportation ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
The North ◽  
Future Return ◽  
Long Term Trends

Bad weather and rough seas continue to be a major cause for ship losses and is thus a significant contributor to the risk to maritime transportation. This stresses the importance of taking severe sea state conditions adequately into account, with due treatment of the uncertainties involved, in ship design and operation. Hence, there is a need for appropriate stochastic models describing the variability of sea states. These should also incorporate realistic projections of future return levels of extreme sea states, taking into account long-term trends related to climate change and inherent uncertainties. The stochastic model presented in this paper allows for modelling of complex dependence structures in space and time and incorporation of physical features and prior knowledge, yet at the same time remains intuitive and easily interpreted. A regression component with CO2 as an explanatory variable has been introduced in order to extract and project long-term trends in the data. The model has been fitted by significant wave height data for an area in the North Atlantic ocean. The different components of the model will be outlined in the paper, and the results will be discussed.

scholarly journals Past megadroughts in central Europe were longer, more severe and less warm than modern droughts

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ionita ◽  
M. Dima ◽  
V. Nagavciuc ◽  
P. Scholz ◽  
G. Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Explosive Volcanism ◽  
American Southwest ◽  
The North ◽  
European Climate ◽  
Blocking Activity ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Dalton Minimum

AbstractMegadroughts are notable manifestations of the American Southwest, but not so much of the European climate. By using long-term hydrological and meteorological observations, as well as paleoclimate reconstructions, here we show that central Europe has experienced much longer and severe droughts during the Spörer Minimum (~AD 1400–1480) and Dalton Minimum (~AD 1770–1840), than the ones observed during the 21st century. These two megadroughts appear to be linked with a cold state of the North Atlantic Ocean and enhanced winter atmospheric blocking activity over the British Isles and western part of Europe, concurrent with reduced solar forcing and explosive volcanism. Moreover, we show that the recent drought events (e.g., 2003, 2015, and 2018), are within the range of natural variability and they are not unprecedented over the last millennium.

scholarly journals Long term trends in the sea surface temperature of the Black Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 491-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. I. Shapiro ◽  
D. L. Aleynik ◽  
L. D. Mee
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Cooling Trend

Abstract. There is growing understanding that recent deterioration of the Black Sea ecosystem was partly due to changes in the marine physical environment. This study uses high resolution 0.25° climatology to analyze sea surface temperature variability over the 20th century in two contrasting regions of the sea. Results show that the deep Black Sea was cooling during the first three quarters of the century and was warming in the last 15–20 years; on aggregate there was a statistically significant cooling trend. The SST variability over the Western shelf was more volatile and it does not show statistically significant trends. The cooling of the deep Black Sea is at variance with the general trend in the North Atlantic and may be related to the decrease of westerly winds over the Black Sea, and a greater influence of the Siberian anticyclone. The timing of the changeover from cooling to warming coincides with the regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem.

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN MARITAL STATUS MORTALITY DIFFERENCES IN THE NETHERLANDS 1850–1970

2001 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANS VAN POPPEL ◽  
INEZ JOUNG
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Marital Status ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Relative Increase ◽  
World War ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Married Men ◽  
Long Term Trends

This article describes the long-term trends in marital status mortality differences in the Netherlands using a unique dataset relating to the period 1850–1970. Poisson regression analysis was applied to calculate relative mortality risks by marital status. For two periods, cause-of-death by marital status could be used. Clear differences in mortality by marital status were observed, with strongly increasing advantages for married men and women and a relative increase in the mortality of widowed compared with non-married people. Excess mortality among single and formerly married men and women was visible in many cause-of-death categories, and this became more widespread during the last decades of the nineteenth century. Hypotheses are formulated that might explain why married men and women underwent a stronger decrease in mortality up until the end of World War II.

Alternate history: A synthetic ensemble of ocean chlorophyll concentrations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geneviève Elsworth ◽  
Nicole Lovenduski ◽  
Karen McKinnon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Surface Ocean ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Long Term Trends

&lt;p&gt;Internal climate variability plays an important role in the abundance and distribution of phytoplankton in the global ocean. Previous studies using large ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) have demonstrated their utility in the study of marine phytoplankton variability. These ESM large ensembles simulate the evolution of multiple alternate realities, each with a different phasing of internal climate variability. However, ESMs may not accurately represent real world variability as recorded via satellite and in situ observations of ocean chlorophyll over the past few decades. Observational records of surface ocean chlorophyll equate to a single ensemble member in the large ensemble framework, and this can cloud the interpretation of long-term trends: are they externally forced, caused by the phasing of internal variability, or both? Here, we use a novel statistical emulation technique to place the observational record of surface ocean chlorophyll into the large ensemble framework. Much like a large initial condition ensemble generated with an ESM, the resulting synthetic ensemble represents multiple possible evolutions of ocean chlorophyll concentration, each with a different phasing of internal climate variability. We further demonstrate the validity of our statistical approach by recreating a ESM ensemble of chlorophyll using only a single ESM ensemble member. We use the synthetic ensemble to explore the interpretation of long-term trends in the presence of internal variability. Our results suggest the potential to explore this approach for other ocean biogeochemical variables.&lt;/p&gt;

Health, Education, and Welfare: Explaining Long-Term Trends in Health and Longevity

2013 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 1200-1202
Author(s):  
Dora L. Costa
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Equity In Health ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Aging And Health ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Common Problems ◽  
The University ◽  
Equity In Health Care

Dora L. Costa of University of California, Los Angeles reviews, “Explaining Long-Term Trends in Health and Longevity” by Robert W. Fogel. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Explores the theory and measurement of aging- and health-related variables and considers how the anthropometric approach to historical analysis has helped reinterpret the nature of economic growth. Discusses secular changes in American and British stature and nutrition; second thoughts on the European escape from hunger—famines, chronic malnutrition, and mortality rates; trends in physiological capital—implications for equity in health care; changes in disparities and chronic diseases through the course of the twentieth century; and some common problems in analysis and measurement. Fogel is Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of American Institutions in the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago.”

scholarly journals Seasonal Barotropic Modulation of the Deep-Water Overflow through the Faroe Bank Channel

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (12) ◽  
pp. 2328-2339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iréne Lake ◽  
Peter Lundberg
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Norwegian Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
Flow Through ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Water Overflow

Abstract As a joint Nordic project, an upward-looking ADCP has been maintained at the sill of the Faroe Bank Channel from 1995 onward. Records from a period in 1998 with three current meters deployed across the channel were used to demonstrate that the Faroe Bank Channel deep-water transport from the Norwegian Sea into the North Atlantic Ocean proper can be reasonably well estimated from one centrally located ADCP. The long-term average of this transport over the period 1995–2001 was found to be 2.1 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m−3 s−1). The transport record demonstrates a pronounced seasonality. Satellite altimetry shows that this is caused by the northbound Atlantic surface water inflow giving rise to a barotropic modulation of the deep-water flow through the Faroe–Shetland Channel and the southern reaches of the Norwegian Sea.

scholarly journals Population structure and spatial distribution of porbeagles (Lamna nasus) in Irish waters

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (6) ◽  
pp. 1581-1590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke W J Cameron ◽  
William K Roche ◽  
Jonathan D R Houghton ◽  
Paul J Mensink
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
The North ◽  
Aggregation Site ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Almost All

Abstract Porbeagles throughout the North Atlantic have experienced severe population decline through overfishing, with the northeastern population listed as critically endangered. Management of this population is constrained by the paucity of data on porbeagle population structure, distribution and behaviour in this region. Here we use a long-term (47 year) Irish capture-mark-recapture dataset to investigate the population structure, spatial distribution and seasonal movements of this species. From 1970–2017, a total of 268 sharks (9 recaptures) were ID tagged, with most individuals likely being juvenile based on length at maturity estimates (mean total length = 143.9 cm, SD = 35.4). Almost all captures were recorded at three distinct locations near angling hubs along the south, west and north coasts with catches peaking in August. Long-term trends in capture date indicated a shift towards earlier capture dates in the northern site (n = 153). Our findings suggest Irish waters may act as a persistent summer aggregation site for juveniles, which show evidence for seasonal site fidelity, returning to nearby locations between years. These findings demonstrate the utility of such programmes, which can be implemented, with minimal expense by engaging with the angling sector, to elucidate the population structure and distribution of wide-ranging fish species.

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