scholarly journals The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 4429-4440 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. K. Gunasekara ◽  
S. Kazama ◽  
D. Yamazaki ◽  
T. Oki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
High Water ◽  
Policy Scenario ◽  
Fertility Reduction ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Population Reduction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water-stressed regions is almost 20 times lower than that in the lower latitudes. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario, and the scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective in reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

scholarly journals The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 9239-9256
Author(s):  
N. K. Gunasekara ◽  
S. Kazama ◽  
D. Yamazaki ◽  
T. Oki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Policy Scenario ◽  
Fertility Reduction ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

scholarly journals Variability of the water availability in a river lake system – A case study of Lake Symsar

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela B. Kuriata-Potasznik ◽  
Sławomir Szymczyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Retention ◽  
Water Exchange ◽  
Water Losses ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Lake System ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIt is predicted that climate change will result in the diminution of water resources available both on global and regional scales. Local climate change is harder to observe and therefore, while counteracting its effects, it seems advisable to undertake studies on pertinent regional and local conditions. In this research, our aim was to assess the impact of a river and its catchment on fluctuations in the water availability in a natural lake which belongs to a post-glacial river and lake system. River and lake systems behave most often like a single interacting hydrological unit, and the intensity of water exchange in these systems is quite high, which may cause temporary water losses. This study showed that water in the analyzed river and lake system was exchanged approx. every 66 days, which resulted from the total (horizontal and vertical) water exchange. Also, the management of a catchment area seems to play a crucial role in the local water availability, as demonstrated by this research, where water retention was favoured by wooded and marshy areas. More intensive water retention was observed in a catchment dominated by forests, pastures and wetlands. Wasteland and large differences in the land elevation in the tested catchment are unfavourable to water retention because they intensify soil evaporation and accelerate the water run-off outside of the catchment. Among the actions which should be undertaken in order to counteract water deficiencies in catchment areas, rational use and management of the land resources in the catchment are most often mentioned.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria C. Okafor ◽  
Kingsley N. Ogbu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall, temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann–Kendall trend test. Sen’s estimator values stood in agreement with Mann–Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized. With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.

scholarly journals The physiology of drought stress in grapevine: towards an integrative definition of drought tolerance

2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (16) ◽  
pp. 4658-4676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory A Gambetta ◽  
Jose Carlos Herrera ◽  
Silvina Dayer ◽  
Quishuo Feng ◽  
Uri Hochberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drought Stress ◽  
Drought Tolerance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Fruit Crop ◽  
Crop Varieties ◽  
Drought Tolerant ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Water availability is arguably the most important environmental factor limiting crop growth and productivity. Erratic precipitation patterns and increased temperatures resulting from climate change will likely make drought events more frequent in many regions, increasing the demand on freshwater resources and creating major challenges for agriculture. Addressing these challenges through increased irrigation is not always a sustainable solution so there is a growing need to identify and/or breed drought-tolerant crop varieties in order to maintain sustainability in the context of climate change. Grapevine (Vitis vinifera), a major fruit crop of economic importance, has emerged as a model perennial fruit crop for the study of drought tolerance. This review synthesizes the most recent results on grapevine drought responses, the impact of water deficit on fruit yield and composition, and the identification of drought-tolerant varieties. Given the existing gaps in our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying grapevine drought responses, we aim to answer the following question: how can we move towards a more integrative definition of grapevine drought tolerance?

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Drought Stress and Soil Cultivation in Chardonnay and Xynisteri Grape Cultivars

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonios Chrysargyris ◽  
Panayiota Xylia ◽  
Vassilis Litskas ◽  
Menelaos Stavrinides ◽  
Lisa Heyman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Grape Juice ◽  
Titratable Acidity ◽  
Anthocyanin Content ◽  
Total Anthocyanin ◽  
Mediterranean Areas ◽  
The Impact

Cyprus has a long tradition in grape cultivation and wine making and grapevine is important for the sustainability of the agricultural sector, like in other Mediterranean areas. Water scarcity, which is projected to increase due to climate change, could negatively affect the sector. In this research, the effects of irrigation and tillage treatments on various aspects of vine growth and product quality (e.g., yield, physiology and quality attributes), were studied in Chardonnay and Xynisteri cultivars grown in clay soils in Cyprus. Regarding soil properties and water content, N and K were more abundant in the soil than P and through the growing period irrigation tended to increase electrical conductivity (EC) in the soil. Soil water content (volumetric) was 22%–27.5% and 13%–16%, when irrigation was applied or not, respectively. Vegetative soil cover occupied 50%–55% of the surface and contained species typically present in Mediterranean farms (e.g., Poaceae, Fabaceae and Brassicaceae). Tillage increased yield in Xynisteri (4–5 kg plant−1) but negatively affected other parameters such as chlorophyll levels (in Xynisteri). In combination with irrigation, tillage increased antioxidant activity in Chardonnay (assessed by FRAP and DPPH), at harvest. Total phenolics at harvest were higher in the grape juice of Xynisteri, compared to Chardonnay (30–40 and 20–25 mg GA g−1 fresh weight, respectively). Irrigation influenced phytohormone levels in the two cultivars. ABA increased in non-irrigated Xynisteri, reflecting an increased capacity to react towards water stress. Water stress is considered to increase polyphenols in grapes, but in the case of Xynisteri it seems that irrigation water is required to obtain better quality grapes as without irrigation volumetric water content (VWC) is close to the permanent wilting point. Titratable acidity and total tannins decreased in Chardonnay, when tillage and irrigation were applied. In addition, tillage and irrigation tended to elevate the pH of the grape juice. Tillage and irrigation on the other hand, had no effect on the levels of ascorbic acid and total anthocyanin content. The results of this research may help to select management strategies that support the adaptation of viticulture to climate change in Cyprus and other Mediterranean areas.

scholarly journals The Impact of Drought in Plant Metabolism: How to Exploit Tolerance Mechanisms to Increase Crop Production

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (16) ◽  
pp. 5692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhriti Kapoor ◽  
Savita Bhardwaj ◽  
Marco Landi ◽  
Arti Sharma ◽  
Muthusamy Ramakrishnan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drought Stress ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Ecological Niches ◽  
Antioxidant Systems ◽  
Crop Species ◽  
Change Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stimulation Of

Plants are often exposed to unfavorable environmental conditions, for instance abiotic stresses, which dramatically alter distribution of plant species among ecological niches and limit the yields of crop species. Among these, drought stress is one of the most impacting factors which alter seriously the plant physiology, finally leading to the decline of the crop productivity. Drought stress causes in plants a set of morpho-anatomical, physiological and biochemical changes, mainly addressed to limit the loss of water by transpiration with the attempt to increase the plant water use efficiency. The stomata closure, one of the first consistent reactions observed under drought, results in a series of consequent physiological/biochemical adjustments aimed at balancing the photosynthetic process as well as at enhancing the plant defense barriers against drought-promoted stress (e.g., stimulation of antioxidant systems, accumulation of osmolytes and stimulation of aquaporin synthesis), all representing an attempt by the plant to overcome the unfavorable period of limited water availability. In view of the severe changes in water availability imposed by climate change factors and considering the increasing human population, it is therefore of outmost importance to highlight: (i) how plants react to drought; (ii) the mechanisms of tolerance exhibited by some species/cultivars; and (iii) the techniques aimed at increasing the tolerance of crop species against limited water availability. All these aspects are necessary to respond to the continuously increasing demand for food, which unfortunately parallels the loss of arable land due to changes in rainfall dynamics and prolonged period of drought provoked by climate change factors. This review summarizes the most updated findings on the impact of drought stress on plant morphological, biochemical and physiological features and highlights plant mechanisms of tolerance which could be exploited to increase the plant capability to survive under limited water availability. In addition, possible applicative strategies to help the plant in counteracting unfavorable drought periods are also discussed.

Crown condition, water availability, insect damage and landscape features: are they important to the Chilean tree Nothofagus glauca (Nothofagaceae) in the context of climate change?

2013 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott H. Altmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Leaf Damage ◽  
Insect Damage ◽  
Plant Water ◽  
Vegetative Cover ◽  
Crown Condition ◽  
Plant Vigour ◽  
Landscape Features ◽  
The Impact

An understanding of the impact that climate change will have on dominant plant species is important given the central role of these species in ecosystem functioning. Southern beech (Nothofagus Blume) is a central genus in the forests of the southern cone of South America, with Nothofagus glauca (Phil.) Krasser a dominant, at-risk tree inhabiting the drought-prone region of central Chile. The present study explored the relationships among several environmental variables that may be critical to understanding the impact of climate change on N. glauca, most importantly crown condition, plant water availability, insect leaf damage and landscape features. Furthermore, the study examined whether these variables differed between individuals from drier or wetter stands distributed within a north–south geographic area. Multiple regression modelling detected important relationships for the dependent variable crown condition with branch midday water potential, N. glauca diameter at breast height and vegetative cover, as well as with landscape variables in interaction with different plant vigour and water availability measures. Negative correlations between insect damage and plant water availability measures were observed at two field sites. Overall, crown condition and water availability were higher, and insect damage was lower, in wetter stands. The results of the present study have important negative implications for the species in terms of climate change and can be applied to future investigations.

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