scholarly journals Wet and dry spells in Senegal: comparison of detection based on satellite products, reanalysis, and in situ estimates

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 1051-1069
Author(s):  
Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall ◽  
Christophe Lavaysse ◽  
Mamadou Simina Drame ◽  
Geremy Panthou ◽  
Amadou Thierno Gaye
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Techniques ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Wet Spells

Abstract. In this study, the detection and characteristics of dry/wet spells (defined as episodes when precipitation is abnormally low or high compared to usual climatology) drawn from several datasets are compared for Senegal. Here, four datasets are based on satellite data (TRMM-3B42 V7, CMORPH V1.0, TAMSAT V3, and CHIRPS V2. 0), two on reanalysis products (NCEP-CFSR and ERA5), and three on rain gauge observations (CPC Unified V1.0/RT and a 65-rain-gauge network regridded by using two kriging methods, namely ordinary kriging, OK, and block kriging, BK). All datasets were converted to the same spatio-temporal resolution: daily cumulative rainfall on a regular 0.25∘ grid. The BK dataset was used as a reference. Despite strong agreement between the datasets on the spatial variability in cumulative seasonal rainfall (correlations ranging from 0.94 to 0.99), there were significant disparities in dry/wet spells. The occurrence of dry spells is less in products using infrared measurement techniques than in products coupling infrared and microwave, pointing to more frequent dry spell events. All datasets show that dry spells appear to be more frequent at the start and end of rainy seasons. Thus, dry spell occurrences have a major influence on the duration of the rainy season, in particular through the “false onset” or “early cessation” of seasons. The amplitude of wet spells shows the greatest variation between datasets. Indeed, these major wet spells appear more intense in the OK and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets than in the others. Lastly, the products indicate a similar wet spell frequency occurring at the height of the West African monsoon. Our findings provide guidance in choosing the most suitable datasets for implementing early warning systems (EWSs) using a multi-risk approach and integrating effective dry/wet spell indicators for monitoring and detecting extreme events.

scholarly journals Wet and dry spells in Senegal: Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall ◽  
Christophe Lavaysse ◽  
Mamadou Simina Drame ◽  
Geremy Panthou ◽  
Amadou Thierno Gaye
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
West African ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
False Start ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Rain Gauge Network

Abstract. In this study, wet and dry spells over Senegal provided by four datasets based on satellite data (TRMM-3B42 V7, TAMSAT V3, CMORPH V1.0, CHIRPS V2.0), two fully based on (re)analyses (NCEP-CFSR, ERA5) and one was fully based on gauge observations (CPC Unified V1.0/RT) are compared with respect to observation datasets derived from 65 rain gauge network. All datasets were converted to the same temporal and spatial scales with 0.25 × 0.25 as resolution. Ordinary kriging (OK) and block kriging (BK) were used for the spatial interpolation of the gauge data. Despite a spatial coherence of the seasonal rainfall accumulation between all products, more variability with intra-seasonal features are shown in this paper. The seasonal cycle of dry days shows that TRMM, CPC, ERA5, NCEP and OK record more dry days (from 45 % to 55 % of dry days in August) while TAMSAT, CHIRPS, CMORPH and BK record less dry day (from 40 % to 30 % of dry days in August). All datasets highlighted an agreement that dry spell indicator underscore often false start and early cessation of the rainy Season in Senegal. Although, it can rarely occurs during intensification of West African monsoon (August–September). The most contrast is found on the detection of wet indicators intensity. Wet spell (defined as period with precipitation higher than a certain percentile of historical precipitation) are more severe in OK and TRMM than in other datasets. However, a great similarity is shown on their temporal frequencies.

scholarly journals Evaluation of IMERG Level-3 Products in Depicting the July to October Rainfall over Taiwan: Typhoon Versus Non-Typhoon

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 622
Author(s):  
Wan-Ru Huang ◽  
Pin-Yi Liu ◽  
Ya-Hui Chang ◽  
Cheng-An Lee
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Level 3 ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Typhoon Season ◽  
Early Late ◽  
Better Than

This study assesses the performance of satellite precipitation products (SPPs) from the latest version, V06B, Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG) Level-3 (including early, late, and final runs), in depicting the characteristics of typhoon season (July to October) rainfall over Taiwan within the period of 2000–2018. The early and late runs are near-real-time SPPs, while final run is post-real-time SPP adjusted by monthly rain gauge data. The latency of early, late, and final runs is approximately 4 h, 14 h, and 3.5 months, respectively, after the observation. Analyses focus on the seasonal mean, daily variation, and interannual variation of typhoon-related (TC) and non-typhoon-related (non-TC) rainfall. Using local rain-gauge observations as a reference for evaluation, our results show that all IMERG products capture the spatio-temporal variations of TC rainfall better than those of non-TC rainfall. Among SPPs, the final run performs better than the late run, which is slightly better than the early run for most of the features assessed for both TC and non-TC rainfall. Despite these differences, all IMERG products outperform the frequently used Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 v7 (TRMM7) for the illustration of the spatio-temporal characteristics of TC rainfall in Taiwan. In contrast, for the non-TC rainfall, the final run performs notably better relative to TRMM7, while the early and late runs showed only slight improvement. These findings highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using IMERG products for studying or monitoring typhoon season rainfall in Taiwan.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3051
Author(s):  
Girma Berhe Adane ◽  
Birtukan Abebe Hirpa ◽  
Chul-Hee Lim ◽  
Woo-Kyun Lee
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Awash River Basin ◽  
Wet Spells

This study aimed to analyze the probability of the occurrence of dry/wet spell rainfall using the Markov chain model in the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. The rainfall analysis was conducted in the short rainy (Belg) and long rainy (Kiremt) seasons on a dekadal (10–day) scale over a 30-year period. In the Belg season, continuous, three-dekad dry spells were prevalent at all stations. Persistent dry spells might result in meteorological, hydrological, and socio-economic drought (in that order) and merge with the Kiremt season. The consecutive wet dekads of the Kiremt season indicate a higher probability of wet dekads at all stations, except Metehara. This station experienced a short duration (dekads 20–23) of wet spells, in which precipitation is more than 50% likely. Nevertheless, surplus rainwater may be recorded at Debrezeit and Wonji only in the Kiremt season because of a higher probability of wet spells in most dekads (dekads 19–24). At these stations, rainfall can be harvested for better water management practices to supply irrigation during the dry season, to conserve moisture, and to reduce erosion. This reduces the vulnerability of the farmers around the river basin, particularly in areas where dry spell dekads are dominant.

scholarly journals Lacunarity, predictability and predictive instability of the daily pluviometric regime in the Iberian Peninsula

2007 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. D. Martínez ◽  
X. Lana ◽  
A. Burgueño ◽  
C. Serra
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Power Laws ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell

Abstract. The complexity of the daily pluviometric regime of the Iberian Peninsula is analysed from the point of view of its lacunarity, predictability and predictive instability. The database consists of daily pluviometric records obtained from 43 rain gauges in Spain and Portugal for the period 1950–1990. Five different series are generated for every rain gauge. The first series is constituted by the consecutive daily amounts. The other four consist of dry spell lengths with respect to daily amount thresholds of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. A dry spell length is defined as the number of consecutive days with rainfall amounts below one of these thresholds. The empirical lacunarity for every rain gauge is well reproduced by two power laws, the exponents varying notably from one gauge to another. The spatial distribution of the lacunarity is characterised by a north to south or southeast gradient, thus suggesting that this parameter can be a useful tool to distinguish between different pluviometric regimes. The predictability of the five series is quantified by means of the rescaled analysis and the interpretation of the Hurst exponent. Its patterns reveal that most part of the Iberian Peninsula shows signs of persistence for the daily rainfall and the dry spell series, although persistence is only clearly manifested in some small domains. The instability of possible predictive algorithms is analysed through the Lyapunov exponents. They are only computed for the series of daily amounts and for dry lengths respect to the threshold level of 0.1 mm/day due to the short number of dry spells for larger threshold levels. The series of daily amounts depict the highest instability along the Mediterranean coast. The series of dry spells show an increasing instability from NE to SW Spain, with a relevant nucleus of high Lyapunov values in the south-western Atlantic coast. As a summary, lacunarity and Hurst and Lyapunov exponents depict a relevant spatial variation, which is in agreement with well known patterns of the pluviometric regime, such as annual amount spatial distribution and return periods of dry spells.

scholarly journals Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Wet and Dry Spells over Two Urban Regions in the Western Maritime Continent

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1579-1600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep V. Mandapaka ◽  
Xiaosheng Qin ◽  
Edmond Yat-Man Lo
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Urban Regions ◽  
Seasonal And Interannual Variability ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Spell Length ◽  
Wet Spells

Abstract Daily rainfall data from two urban regions in Southeast Asia are analyzed to study seasonal and interannual variability of wet and dry spells. The analysis is carried out using 35 years of data from Singapore and 23 years of data from Jakarta. The frequency distribution of wet (dry) spells and their relative contribution to the total number of wet (dry) days and to the total rainfall are studied using 15 statistical indicators. At the annual scale, Singapore has a greater number of wet spells and a larger mean wet spell length compared to Jakarta. However, both cities have equal probability of extreme wet spells. Seasonal-scale analysis shows that Singapore is drier (wetter) than Jakarta during boreal winter (summer). The probability of extreme wet spells is lower (higher) for Singapore than Jakarta during boreal winter (summer). The results show a stronger contrast between Singapore and Jakarta during boreal summer. The study also examined the time series of Singapore wet and dry spell indicators for the presence of interannual trends. The results indicate statistically significant upward trends for a majority of wet spell indicators. The wet day percentage and mean wet spell length are increasing at 2.0% decade−1 and 0.18 days decade−1, respectively. Analysis of dynamic and thermodynamic variables from ERA-Interim during the study period indicates a strengthening of low-level convergence and vertical motion and an increase in specific humidity and atmospheric instability (convective available potential energy), which explain the increasing trends observed in Singapore wet spell indicators.

scholarly journals Differences in Draft Core Statistics from the Wet to Dry Spell over Gadanki, India (13.5°N, 79.2°E)

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (12) ◽  
pp. 4293-4306 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Narayana Rao ◽  
K. N. Uma ◽  
T. Mohan Satyanarayana ◽  
D. Narayana Rao
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Elevation Angle ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Bimodal Distribution ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Core Size ◽  
The Core ◽  
Surface Rainfall ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell

Abstract The Indian mesosphere–stratosphere–troposphere (MST) radar observations during the passage of 37 convective systems are utilized to investigate the characteristics of vertical air velocity w in different convection categories (shallow, deep, and decaying) and also the differences in draft core statistics from the wet to dry spell. The radar and optical rain gauge measurements show pronounced differences in core statistics (in terms of their vertical structure, draft strength, size, number, and the elevation angle) and surface rainfall characteristics from the dry to wet spell. The shallow convective cores are preponderant in the dry spell. Composite w profiles, retrieved from all deep cases and also from individual convection cases, depict an upper-tropospheric peak in the wet spell and a bimodal distribution (peaks at 5 and 11–13 km) in the dry spell, illustrating that they are characteristic features of wet and dry spells. The average vertical extents of the cores are nearly equal (about 8 km) in both spells of the monsoon; however, the core-base (and top) altitudes are different. In both wet and dry spells, the composite w profile for all cores show similar vertical variation to that of for updraft cores, while the composite w for downdraft cores do not show much variation with altitude, indicating that the updraft cores dictate the vertical structure of composite w. The core size varies considerably (a factor of 2) with altitude in both spells of the monsoon. Although nearly equal in the lower troposphere in both phases of the monsoon, the core size is larger by 1–2 km in the dry spell in the middle and upper troposphere. Consistent with the longer lifetime (bigger core size) of cores in the dry spell, the cores are more inclined (with a mean elevation angle of 30°) in the dry spell. The surface rainfall distribution is wider and has large number of intense rainfall rates in the wet spell. The mean rainfall rate for the wet spell is also larger by a factor of 2, consistent with earlier studies.

Changes in the Duration of European Wet and Dry Spells during the Last 60 Years

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 2022-2047 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Zolina ◽  
Clemens Simmer ◽  
Konstantin Belyaev ◽  
Sergey K. Gulev ◽  
Peter Koltermann
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Southern Scandinavia ◽  
Northern Russia ◽  
Wet Spells

Abstract Daily rain gauge data over Europe for the period from 1950 to 2009 were used to analyze changes in the duration of wet and dry spells. The duration of wet spells exhibits a statistically significant growth over northern Europe and central European Russia, which is especially pronounced in winter when the mean duration of wet periods increased by 15%–20%. In summer wet spells become shorter over Scandinavia and northern Russia. The duration of dry spells decreases over Scandinavia and southern Europe in both winter and summer. For the discrimination between the roles of a changing number of wet days and of a regrouping of wet and dry days for the duration of the period, the authors suggest a fractional truncated geometric distribution. The changing numbers of wet days cannot explain the long-term variability in the duration of wet and dry periods. The observed changes are mainly due to the regrouping of wet and dry days. The tendencies in duration of wet and dry spells have been analyzed for a number of European areas. Over the Netherlands both wet and dry periods are extended in length during the cold and the warm season. A simultaneous shortening of wet and dry periods is found in southern Scandinavia in summer. Over France and central southern Europe during both winter and summer and over the Scandinavian Atlantic coast in summer, opposite tendencies in the duration of wet and dry spells were identified. Potential mechanisms that might be responsible for the changing durations of wet and dry periods and further perspectives are discussed.

scholarly journals A Stochastic Approach for the Analysis of Long Dry Spells with Different Threshold Values in Southern Italy

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sirangelo ◽  
Caloiero ◽  
Coscarelli ◽  
Ferrari
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell

A non-homogeneous Poisson model was proposed to analyze the sequences of dry spells below prefixed thresholds as an upgrade of a stochastic procedure previously used to describe long periods of no rainfall. Its application concerned the daily precipitation series in a 60-year time span at four rain gauges (Calabria, southern Italy), aiming at testing the different behaviors of the dry spells below prefixed thresholds in two paired periods (1951–1980 and 1981–2010). A simulation analysis performed through a Monte Carlo approach assessed the statistical significance of the variation of the mean values of dry spells observed at an annual scale in the two 30-year periods. The results evidenced that the dry spells durations increased passing from the first 30-year period to the second one for all the thresholds analyzed. For instance, for the Cassano station, an increase of about 10% of the maximum dry spell duration was detected for a threshold of 5 mm. Moreover, the return periods evaluated for fixed long dry spells through the synthetic data of the period 1981–2010 were lower than the corresponding ones evaluated with the data generated for the previous 30-year period. Specifically, the difference between the two 30-year periods in terms of the return period of long dry spells occurrence increased with the growing thresholds. As an example, for the Cosenza rain gauge with a threshold of 1 mm, the return period for a dry spell length of 70 days decreased from 20 years (in 1951–1980) to about 10 years (in 1981–2010), while for a threshold of 5 mm, the return period for the dry spell lengths of 120 days decreases from 70 years to about 20 years. These results show a higher probability of the occurrence of long dry spells in the more recent period than in the past.

Evaluation of the TRMM Product for Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Precipitation over Nepal (1998-2018)

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-48
Author(s):  
Kalpana Hamal ◽  
Nitesh Khadka ◽  
Samresh Rai ◽  
Bharat Badayar Joshi ◽  
Jagdish Dotel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Good Alternative ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Large Error ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Precipitation is a fundamental component of the water cycle and integral to the society and the ecosystem. Further, continuous monitoring of precipitation is essential for predicting severe weather, monitoring droughts, and high-intensity related extremes. The present study evaluated the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and trends between 1998– 2018 using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (3B43-V7) with reference to 142-gauge observations over Nepal. TRMM moderately captured precipitation patterns' overall characteristics, although underestimated the mean annual precipitation during the study period. TRMM precipitation product well captured the seasonal variation of the observed precipitation with the highest correlation in the winter season. The decreasing seasonal and annual trend was found in both observed and TRMM products, with the highest (lowest) decreasing trend observed during the monsoon (winter) season. It was also noted that the TRMM product showed a smaller bias before 2007, while a large error was found after 2007, especially in the monsoon months. In general, the TRMM product is a good alternative to observe rain gauge measurement in Nepal. However, there is still space for further improvement in rainfall retrieval algorithms, especially in high-elevation areas during the winter season.

10–25-Day Intraseasonal Variability of Convection over the Sahel: A Role of the Saharan Heat Low and Midlatitudes

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (22) ◽  
pp. 5863-5878 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Roehrig ◽  
F. Chauvin ◽  
J.-P. Lafore
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Sahel Region ◽  
Equatorial Rossby Wave ◽  
Wet Spells ◽  
Heat Low

Abstract The understanding and forecasting of persistent dry or wet periods of the West African monsoon (WAM), especially those that occur at the intraseasonal time scale, are crucial to improve food management and disaster mitigation in the Sahel region. In the present study, the authors assess how the 10–25-day intraseasonal variability of convection over the Sahel is related to the recently documented intraseasonal variability of the Saharan heat low (SHL) and the associated extratropical circulation. Strongest and most frequent interactions occur when the SHL intraseasonal fluctuations lead those of convection over the Sahel with a 5-day lag. Using a nonlinear event-based approach, such a combination is shown to concern about one-third of Sahelian dry and wet spells and, in the case of dry spells, to yield convective anomalies that are stronger, last longer by at least 2 days, and reach a larger spatial scale. It is then argued that the 10–25-day intraseasonal variability of convection over the Sahel can be partly explained by the midlatitude intraseasonal variability, through a major role played by the SHL. The anomalous midlevel circulations observed during Sahelian wet and dry events can be shifted from the midlatitudes, which provide a complementary mechanism to that invoking equatorial Rossby wave dynamics. These two mechanisms are likely to interfere together in a constructive or destructive way, leading to high temporal and spatial variability of the Sahelian dry and wet spells. As a particular intraseasonal event, the WAM onset is shown to be clearly favored by phases of the SHL intraseasonal variability, when the Mediterranean ventilation is weakened and the SHL is able to strengthen. Conversely, the formation of a strong cold air surge over Libya and Egypt and its propagation toward the Sahel lead to the collapse of the SHL, which inhibits the WAM onset. From these extratropical–tropical interactions, more skillful forecasts of the Sahelian wet and dry spells and of the WAM onset can be expected. In particular, the monitoring of both the SHL intraseasonal activity and that of the equatorial Rossby wave should provide relevant information to forecast at least two-thirds of such high-impact events.

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