scholarly journals The potential of machine learning for weather index insurance

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 2379-2405
Author(s):  
Luigi Cesarini ◽  
Rui Figueiredo ◽  
Beatrice Monteleone ◽  
Mario L. V. Martina
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Index Insurance ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Classification Problems ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Weather Index Insurance ◽  
Extreme Flood

Abstract. Weather index insurance is an innovative tool in risk transfer for disasters induced by natural hazards. This paper proposes a methodology that uses machine learning algorithms for the identification of extreme flood and drought events aimed at reducing the basis risk connected to this kind of insurance mechanism. The model types selected for this study were the neural network and the support vector machine, vastly adopted for classification problems, which were built exploring thousands of possible configurations based on the combination of different model parameters. The models were developed and tested in the Dominican Republic context, based on data from multiple sources covering a time period between 2000 and 2019. Using rainfall and soil moisture data, the machine learning algorithms provided a strong improvement when compared to logistic regression models, used as a baseline for both hazards. Furthermore, increasing the amount of information provided during the training of the models proved to be beneficial to the performances, increasing their classification accuracy and confirming the ability of these algorithms to exploit big data and their potential for application within index insurance products.

Near real-time identification of extreme events for weather index insurance using machine learning algorithms

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luigi Cesarini ◽  
Rui Figueiredo ◽  
Beatrice Monteleone ◽  
Mario Martina
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Index Insurance ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Basis Risk ◽  
Weather Index Insurance ◽  
Extreme Flood

<p>A steady increase in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events has been observed in recent years, causing losses amounting to billions of dollars. Floods and droughts are responsible for almost half of those losses, severely affecting people’s livelihoods in the form of damaged property, goods and even loss of life. Weather index insurance is an innovative tool in risk transfer for disasters induced by natural hazards. In this type of insurance, payouts are triggered when an index calculated from one or multiple environmental variables exceeds a predefined threshold. Thus, contrary to traditional insurance, it does not require costly and time-consuming post-event loss assessments. Its ease of application makes it an ideal solution for developing countries, where fast payouts in light of a catastrophic event would guarantee the survival of an economic sector, for example, providing the monetary resources necessary for farmers to sustain a prolonged period of extreme temperatures. The main obstacle to a wider application of this type of insurance mechanism stems from the so-called basis risk, which arises when a loss event takes place but a payout is not issued, or vice-versa.</p><p>This study proposes and tests the application of machine learning algorithms for the identification of extreme flood and drought events in the context of weather index insurance, with the aim of reducing basis risk. Neural networks and support vector machines, widely adopted for classification problems, are employed exploring thousands of possible configurations based on the combination of different model parameters. The models were developed and tested in the Dominican Republic context, leveraging datasets from multiple sources with low latency, covering a time period between 2000 and 2019. Using rainfall (GSMaP, CMORPH, CHIRPS, CCS, PERSIANN and IMERG) and soil moisture (ERA5) data, the machine learning algorithms provided a strong improvement when compared to logistic regression models, used as a baseline for both hazards. Furthermore, increasing the number of information provided during model training proved to be beneficial to the performances, improving their classification accuracy and confirming the ability of these algorithms to exploit big data. Results highlight the potential of machine learning for application within index insurance products.</p>

scholarly journals The potential of big data and machine learning for weather index insurance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luigi Cesarini ◽  
Rui Figueiredo ◽  
Beatrice Monteleone ◽  
Mario Lloyd Virgilio Martina
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Index Insurance ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Weather Index Insurance ◽  
Extreme Flood

Abstract. Weather index insurance is an innovative tool in risk transfer for disasters induced by natural hazards. This paper proposes a methodology that uses machine learning algorithms for the identification of extreme flood and drought events aimed at reducing the basis risk connected to this kind of insurance mechanism. The model types selected for this study were the neural network and the support vector machine, vastly adopted for classification problems, which were built exploring thousands of possible configurations based on the combination of different model parameters. The models were developed and tested in the Dominican Republic context, based on data from multiple sources covering a time period between 2000 and 2019. Using rainfall and soil moisture data, the machine learning algorithms provided a strong improvement when compared to logistic regression models, used as a baseline for both hazards. Furthermore, increasing the number of information provided during the training of the models proved to be beneficial to the performances, increasing their classification accuracy and confirming the ability of these algorithms to exploit big data and their potential for application within index insurance products.

A Comparative Study of Different Machine Learning Algorithms for Disease Prediction

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Anantvir Singh Romana
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Subsequent Treatment ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Disease Prediction ◽  
Classification Problems ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Neural Network Classifiers ◽  
Diagnostic Detection

Accurate diagnostic detection of the disease in a patient is critical and may alter the subsequent treatment and increase the chances of survival rate. Machine learning techniques have been instrumental in disease detection and are currently being used in various classification problems due to their accurate prediction performance. Various techniques may provide different desired accuracies and it is therefore imperative to use the most suitable method which provides the best desired results. This research seeks to provide comparative analysis of Support Vector Machine, Naïve bayes, J48 Decision Tree and neural network classifiers breast cancer and diabetes datsets.

scholarly journals Hierarchical Tactile Sensation Integration from Prosthetic Fingertips Enables Multi-Texture Surface Recognition

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (13) ◽  
pp. 4324
Author(s):  
Moaed A. Abd ◽  
Rudy Paul ◽  
Aparna Aravelli ◽  
Ou Bai ◽  
Leonel Lagos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Sliding Contact ◽  
Tactile Sensation ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Textured Surfaces ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Tactile Sensors ◽  
Time Frequency

Multifunctional flexible tactile sensors could be useful to improve the control of prosthetic hands. To that end, highly stretchable liquid metal tactile sensors (LMS) were designed, manufactured via photolithography, and incorporated into the fingertips of a prosthetic hand. Three novel contributions were made with the LMS. First, individual fingertips were used to distinguish between different speeds of sliding contact with different surfaces. Second, differences in surface textures were reliably detected during sliding contact. Third, the capacity for hierarchical tactile sensor integration was demonstrated by using four LMS signals simultaneously to distinguish between ten complex multi-textured surfaces. Four different machine learning algorithms were compared for their successful classification capabilities: K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and neural network (NN). The time-frequency features of the LMSs were extracted to train and test the machine learning algorithms. The NN generally performed the best at the speed and texture detection with a single finger and had a 99.2 ± 0.8% accuracy to distinguish between ten different multi-textured surfaces using four LMSs from four fingers simultaneously. The capability for hierarchical multi-finger tactile sensation integration could be useful to provide a higher level of intelligence for artificial hands.

Machine Learning Models for Finger Bend Evaluation using Implemented Low cost Flex Sensor

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VI) ◽  
pp. 3605-3611
Author(s):  
Pratyush Kaware
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Learning Models

In this paper a cost-effective sensor has been implemented to read finger bend signals, by attaching the sensor to a finger, so as to classify them based on the degree of bent as well as the joint about which the finger was being bent. This was done by testing with various machine learning algorithms to get the most accurate and consistent classifier. Finally, we found that Support Vector Machine was the best algorithm suited to classify our data, using we were able predict live state of a finger, i.e., the degree of bent and the joints involved. The live voltage values from the sensor were transmitted using a NodeMCU micro-controller which were converted to digital and uploaded on a database for analysis.

scholarly journals Heart disease prediction using machine learning techniques : a survey

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2.8) ◽  
pp. 684 ◽  
Author(s):  
V V. Ramalingam ◽  
Ayantan Dandapath ◽  
M Karthik Raja
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Complex Data ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Vector Machines ◽  
Supervised Learning Algorithms ◽  
Life Threatening

Heart related diseases or Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs) are the main reason for a huge number of death in the world over the last few decades and has emerged as the most life-threatening disease, not only in India but in the whole world. So, there is a need of reliable, accurate and feasible system to diagnose such diseases in time for proper treatment. Machine Learning algorithms and techniques have been applied to various medical datasets to automate the analysis of large and complex data. Many researchers, in recent times, have been using several machine learning techniques to help the health care industry and the professionals in the diagnosis of heart related diseases. This paper presents a survey of various models based on such algorithms and techniques andanalyze their performance. Models based on supervised learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machines (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), NaïveBayes, Decision Trees (DT), Random Forest (RF) and ensemble models are found very popular among the researchers.

scholarly journals Feature Selection and Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms in Classification of Grazing and Rumination Behaviour in Sheep

Sensors ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 3532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Mansbridge ◽  
Jurgen Mitsch ◽  
Nicola Bollard ◽  
Keith Ellis ◽  
Giuliana Miguel-Pacheco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Time Budget ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Eating Behaviour ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Optimum Number ◽  
Eating Behaviours ◽  
Adaptive Boosting

Grazing and ruminating are the most important behaviours for ruminants, as they spend most of their daily time budget performing these. Continuous surveillance of eating behaviour is an important means for monitoring ruminant health, productivity and welfare. However, surveillance performed by human operators is prone to human variance, time-consuming and costly, especially on animals kept at pasture or free-ranging. The use of sensors to automatically acquire data, and software to classify and identify behaviours, offers significant potential in addressing such issues. In this work, data collected from sheep by means of an accelerometer/gyroscope sensor attached to the ear and collar, sampled at 16 Hz, were used to develop classifiers for grazing and ruminating behaviour using various machine learning algorithms: random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), k nearest neighbour (kNN) and adaptive boosting (Adaboost). Multiple features extracted from the signals were ranked on their importance for classification. Several performance indicators were considered when comparing classifiers as a function of algorithm used, sensor localisation and number of used features. Random forest yielded the highest overall accuracies: 92% for collar and 91% for ear. Gyroscope-based features were shown to have the greatest relative importance for eating behaviours. The optimum number of feature characteristics to be incorporated into the model was 39, from both ear and collar data. The findings suggest that one can successfully classify eating behaviours in sheep with very high accuracy; this could be used to develop a device for automatic monitoring of feed intake in the sheep sector to monitor health and welfare.

scholarly journals A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms Modeled from Machine Vision-Based Lettuce Growth Stage Classification in Smart Aquaponics

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 442-449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandy C. Lauguico ◽  
◽  
Ronnie S. Concepcion II ◽  
Jonnel D. Alejandrino ◽  
Rogelio Ruzcko Tobias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Machine Vision ◽  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Urban Farming ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Lettuce Growth

The arising problem on food scarcity drives the innovation of urban farming. One of the methods in urban farming is the smart aquaponics. However, for a smart aquaponics to yield crops successfully, it needs intensive monitoring, control, and automation. An efficient way of implementing this is the utilization of vision systems and machine learning algorithms to optimize the capabilities of the farming technique. To realize this, a comparative analysis of three machine learning estimators: Logistic Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Linear Support Vector Machine (L-SVM) was conducted. This was done by modeling each algorithm from the machine vision-feature extracted images of lettuce which were raised in a smart aquaponics setup. Each of the model was optimized to increase cross and hold-out validations. The results showed that KNN having the tuned hyperparameters of n_neighbors=24, weights='distance', algorithm='auto', leaf_size = 10 was the most effective model for the given dataset, yielding a cross-validation mean accuracy of 87.06% and a classification accuracy of 91.67%.

scholarly journals Cyber Bullying Detection for Twitter Using ML Classification Algorithms

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 24-29
Author(s):  
Muskan Patidar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Natural Language ◽  
Naive Bayes ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Naïve Bayes ◽  
Cyber Bullying ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Classification Algorithms

Abstract: Social networking platforms have given us incalculable opportunities than ever before, and its benefits are undeniable. Despite benefits, people may be humiliated, insulted, bullied, and harassed by anonymous users, strangers, or peers. Cyberbullying refers to the use of technology to humiliate and slander other people. It takes form of hate messages sent through social media and emails. With the exponential increase of social media users, cyberbullying has been emerged as a form of bullying through electronic messages. We have tried to propose a possible solution for the above problem, our project aims to detect cyberbullying in tweets using ML Classification algorithms like Naïve Bayes, KNN, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector etc. and also we will apply the NLTK (Natural language toolkit) which consist of bigram, trigram, n-gram and unigram on Naïve Bayes to check its accuracy. Finally, we will compare the results of proposed and baseline features with other machine learning algorithms. Findings of the comparison indicate the significance of the proposed features in cyberbullying detection. Keywords: Cyber bullying, Machine Learning Algorithms, Twitter, Natural Language Toolkit

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