scholarly journals Long term prediction of flood occurrence

2016 ◽  
Vol 373 ◽  
pp. 189-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Aguilar ◽  
Alberto Montanari ◽  
María José Polo
Keyword(s):  
Flow Regime ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Physical Explanation ◽  
Po River ◽  
Flood Season

Abstract. How long a river remembers its past is still an open question. Perturbations occurring in large catchments may impact the flow regime for several weeks and months, therefore providing a physical explanation for the occasional tendency of floods to occur in clusters. The research question explored in this paper may be stated as follows: can higher than usual river discharges in the low flow season be associated to a higher probability of floods in the subsequent high flow season? The physical explanation for such association may be related to the presence of higher soil moisture storage at the beginning of the high flow season, which may induce lower infiltration rates and therefore higher river runoff. Another possible explanation is persistence of climate, due to presence of long-term properties in atmospheric circulation. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro, whose catchment area amounts to 71 000 km2. We look at the stochastic connection between average river flows in the pre-flood season and the peak flows in the flood season by using a bivariate probability distribution. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is significantly impacted by the river flow regime in the low flow season. The proposed technique, which can be classified as a data assimilation approach, may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated to the estimation of the flood probability.

scholarly journals Contrasting Differences in Responses of Streamflow Regimes between Reforestation and Fruit Tree Planting in a Subtropical Watershed of China

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhipeng Xu ◽  
Wenfei Liu ◽  
Xiaohua Wei ◽  
Houbao Fan ◽  
Yizao Ge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flow Regime ◽  
Fruit Tree ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Tree Planting ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Jiangxi Province ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Flow Duration ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
High Flows

Fruit tree planting is a common practice for alleviating poverty and restoring degraded environment in developing countries. Yet, its environmental effects are rarely assessed. The Jiujushui watershed (261.4 km2), located in the subtropical Jiangxi Province of China, was selected to assess responses of several flow regime components on both reforestation and fruit tree planting. Three periods of forest changes, including a reference (1961 to 1985), reforestation (1986 to 2000) and fruit tree planting (2001 to 2016) were identified for assessment. Results suggest that the reforestation significantly decreased the average magnitude of high flow by 8.78%, and shortened high flow duration by 2.2 days compared with the reference. In contrast, fruit tree planting significantly increased the average magnitude of high flow by 27.43%. For low flows, reforestation significantly increased the average magnitude by 46.38%, and shortened low flow duration by 8.8 days, while the fruit tree planting had no significant impact on any flow regime components of low flows. We conclude that reforestation had positive impacts on high and low flows, while to our surprise, fruit tree planting had negative effects on high flows, suggesting that large areas of fruit tree planting may potentially become an important driver for some negative hydrological effects in our study area.

scholarly journals Calibration of hydrological models for ecologically relevant streamflow predictions: a trade-off between fitting well to data and estimating consistent parameter sets?

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 1031-1054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibault Hallouin ◽  
Michael Bruen ◽  
Fiachra E. O'Loughlin
Keyword(s):  
Flow Regime ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Living Environment ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
Local Flow ◽  
Trade Off

Abstract. The ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems is intimately linked to natural fluctuations in the river flow regime. In catchments with little human-induced alterations of the flow regime (e.g. abstractions and regulations), existing hydrological models can be used to predict changes in the local flow regime to assess any changes in its rivers' living environment for endemic species. However, hydrological models are traditionally calibrated to give a good general fit to observed hydrographs, e.g. using criteria such as the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) or the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE). Much ecological research has shown that aquatic species respond to a range of specific characteristics of the hydrograph, including magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and the rate of change of flow events. This study investigates the performance of specially developed and tailored criteria formed from combinations of those specific streamflow characteristics (SFCs) found to be ecologically relevant in previous ecohydrological studies. These are compared with the more traditional Kling–Gupta criterion for 33 Irish catchments. A split-sample test with a rolling window is applied to reduce the influence on the conclusions of differences between the calibration and evaluation periods. These tailored criteria are shown to be marginally better suited to predicting the targeted streamflow characteristics; however, traditional criteria are more robust and produce more consistent behavioural parameter sets, suggesting a trade-off between model performance and model parameter consistency when predicting specific streamflow characteristics. Analysis of the fitting to each of 165 streamflow characteristics revealed a general lack of versatility for criteria with a strong focus on low-flow conditions, especially in predicting high-flow conditions. On the other hand, the Kling–Gupta efficiency applied to the square root of flow values performs as well as two sets of tailored criteria across the 165 streamflow characteristics. These findings suggest that traditional composite criteria such as the Kling–Gupta efficiency may still be preferable over tailored criteria for the prediction of streamflow characteristics, when robustness and consistency are important.

scholarly journals Many-year Fluctuations of River Runoff in South-taiga Subzone of the Western Siberia

2013 ◽  
pp. 34-45
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Western Siberia ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Southern Taiga ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Level Regime ◽  
Southern Taiga Subzone ◽  
Bog Water

A detailed analysis of river flow long-term changes in the Southern taiga subzone of Western Siberia has been carried out with the Chaya River basin as an example. Causal statistical analysis of changes in groundwater levels, bog water level, air temperature and atmospheric precipitation has been performed. The conducted studies revealed a statistically significant trend in the increase of surface runoff in the winter low flow of the Chaya River and its large tributaries (the Iksa and the Parbig), as well as the underground runoff component for virtually the entire year. An ambiguous regularity has been observed in the change of the level regime of rivers. The main reason for the observed changes in the water regime of the said territory is the redistribution of atmospheric moisture and shifting of the boundaries of hydrological seasons.

scholarly journals Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 3027-3041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Long Phi Hoang ◽  
Hannu Lauri ◽  
Matti Kummu ◽  
Jorma Koponen ◽  
Michelle T. H. van Vliet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Flow ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Hydrological Impact

Abstract. Climate change poses critical threats to water-related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals from earlier Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3)-based assessments, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the CMIP5 climate projections. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high-flow and low-flow conditions). In general, the Mekong's hydrological cycle intensifies under future climate change. The scenario's ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. The scenario's ensemble, however, shows reduced uncertainties in climate projection and hydrological impacts compared to earlier CMIP3-based assessments. We further found that extremely high-flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risks in the basin. Climate-change-induced hydrological changes will have important implications for safety, economic development, and ecosystem dynamics and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and water management.

Stability of River Flow Regimes

1992 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Krasovskaia ◽  
L. Gottschalk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flow Regime ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Flow Regimes ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

One of the most important consequences of future climate change may be an alteration of the surface hydrological balance, including changes in flow regimes, i.e. seasonal distribution of flow and especially the time of occurrence of high/low flow, which is of vital importance for environmental and economic policies. Classification of flow regimes still has an important role for the analyses of hydrological response to climate change as well as for validating climate models on present climatic and hydrologic data, however, with some modifications in the methodology. In this paper an approach for flow regime classification is developed in this context. Different ways of flow regime classification are discussed. The stability of flow regimes is studied in relation to changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation. The analyses have shown that even rather small changes in these variables can cause changes in river flow regimes. Different patterns of response have been traced for different regions of the Nordic countries.

scholarly journals Long-term treatment outcome of venous-predominant arteriovenous malformation

2016 ◽  
Vol 124 (4) ◽  
pp. 1100-1106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Pyeong Jeon ◽  
Jeong Eun Kim ◽  
Jun Hyong Ahn ◽  
Won-Sang Cho ◽  
Young Dae Cho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Conservative Treatment ◽  
Arteriovenous Malformation ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Asymptomatic Patients ◽  
Long Term Treatment ◽  
Av Shunt

OBJECT Treatment strategies for venous-predominant arteriovenous malformation (vp-AVM) remain unclear due to the limited number of cases and a lack of long-term outcomes. The purpose of this study was to report the authors’ experience with treatment outcomes with a review of the pertinent literature in patients with vp-AVM. METHODS Medical and radiological data from 1998 to 2011 were retrospectively evaluated. The degree of the arteriovenous (AV) shunt was categorized into 2 groups, a high- and low-flow AV shunt based on the angiographic findings. RESULTS Sixteen patients with a mean age of 45.3 years (range 16–78 years) and a mean follow-up of 79.9 months (range 25–264 months) were examined. Symptomatic lesions were noted in 13 patients: intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in 9, seizure in 1, and headache in 3. A high-flow shunt was observed on angiography in 13 patients. Among these 13 patients, 12 patients were symptomatic. Nine patients presenting with ICH underwent hematoma removal with additional Gamma Knife surgery (GKS; n = 4), GKS only (n = 2), or conservative treatment (n = 3). The 3 asymptomatic patients received conservative treatment, and 1 rebleeding episode was observed. Seven of 8 patients who underwent GKS as an initial or secondary treatment modality experienced a marked reduction in the AV shunt on follow-up angiography, but complete obliteration was not observed. CONCLUSIONS Poor lesion localization makes a vp-AVM challenging to treat. Symptomatic patients with a high-flow shunt are supposedly best treated with GKS, despite the fact that only 87.5% of the vp-AVMs treated this way showed a reduction in the malformation volume, and none were cured.

Fresh water inflows to the Firth of Clyde

1986 ◽  
Vol 90 ◽  
pp. 55-66
Author(s):  
T. Poodle
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Fresh Water ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Flow Data ◽  
Fresh Water Input ◽  
Flow Frequency

SynopsisRainfall and river flow data have been used to calculate the fresh water input to the Firth of Clyde at key locations. The importance of seasonal variation and the recurrence of period of low flow is illustrated. Long term flow frequency is also analysed and related to recent events.

scholarly journals Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 6689-6713
Author(s):  
A. Montanari
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Po River ◽  
Water Abundance ◽  
Changing Patterns ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Scientists and public administrators are devoting increasing attention to the Po River, in Italy, in view of concerns related to the impact of increasing urbanisation and exploitation of water resources. A better understanding of the hydrological regime of the river is necessary to improve water resources management and flood protection. In particular, the analysis of the effects of hydrological and climatic change is crucial for planning sustainable development and economic growth. An extremely interesting issue is to inspect to what extent river flows can be naturally affected by the occurrence of long periods of water abundance or scarcity, which can be erroneously interpreted as irreversible changes due to human impact. In fact, drought and flood periods alternatively occurred in the recent past in the form of long term cycles. This paper presents advanced graphical and analytical methods to gain a better understanding of the temporal distribution of the Po River discharge. In particular, we present an analysis of river flow variability and memory properties to better understand natural patterns and in particular long term changes, which may affect the future flood risk and availability of water resources.

scholarly journals A large sample analysis of seasonal river flow correlation and its physical drivers

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theano Iliopoulou ◽  
Cristina Aguilar ◽  
Berit Arheimer ◽  
María Bermúdez ◽  
Nejc Bezak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Flow ◽  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Flow Distribution ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Flow Formation ◽  
The One ◽  
Seasonal Correlation ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow

Abstract. The geophysical and hydrological processes governing river flow formation exhibit persistence at several timescales, which may manifest itself with the presence of positive seasonal correlation of streamflow at several different time lags. We investigate here how persistence propagates along subsequent seasons and affects low and high flows. We define the High Flow Season (HFS) and the Low Flow Season (LFS) as the three-month and the one-month periods which usually exhibit the higher and lower river flows, respectively. A dataset of 224 European rivers spanning more than 50 years of daily flow data is exploited. We compute the lagged seasonal correlation between selected river flow signatures, in HFS and LFS, and the average river flow in the antecedent months. Signatures are peak and average river flow for HFS and LFS, respectively. We investigate the links between seasonal streamflow correlation and various physiographic catchment characteristics and hydro-climatic properties. We find persistence to be more intense for LFS signatures than HFS. To exploit the seasonal correlation in flood frequency estimation, we fit a bivariate Meta-Gaussian probability distribution to peak HFS flow and average pre-HFS flow in order to condition the peak flow distribution in the HFS upon river flow observations in the previous months. The benefit of the suggested methodology is demonstrated by updating the flood frequency distribution one season in advance in real-world cases. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which in turn can be statistically assimilated into flood frequency estimation to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions for technical purposes.

scholarly journals Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 3739-3747 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Montanari
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Po River ◽  
Water Abundance ◽  
Persistence Properties ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Scientists and public administrators are devoting increasing attention to the Po River, in Italy, in view of concerns related to the impact of increasing urbanisation and exploitation of water resources. A better understanding of the hydrological regime of the river is necessary to improve water resources management and flood protection. In particular, the analysis of the effects of hydrological and climatic change is crucial for planning sustainable development and economic growth. An extremely interesting issue is to inspect to what extent river flows can be naturally affected by the occurrence of long periods of water abundance or scarcity, which can be erroneously interpreted as irreversible changes due to human impact. In fact, drought and flood periods alternatively occurred in the recent past in the form of long-term fluctuations. This paper presents advanced graphical and analytical methods to gain a better understanding of the temporal distribution of the Po River discharge. In particular, we present an analysis of river flow variability and persistence properties, to gain a better understanding of natural patterns, and in particular long-term changes, which may affect the future flood risk and availability of water resources.

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