scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ECONOMY OF KAZAKHSTAN TO THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE CORONACRISIS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
А.А. Мухамбетова ◽  
A. Mukhambetova
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Holistic Model ◽  
Treasury Bonds ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The World ◽  
Trade Turnover ◽  
Degree Of Stability ◽  
Foreign Trade Turnover ◽  
The Impact

В статье раскрыта степень устойчивости экономики Казахстана к последствиям коронакризиса. В частности, рассмотрено влияние нефтяных цен на темпы роста ВВП и достаточность денежных резервов, хранящихся в Национальном Фонде, для поддержания национальной экономики в случае длительного сохранения низких цен на нефть. Для построения более целостной модели использовались также данные по внешнеторговому обороту страны и притоку прямых иностранных инвестиций. Автором проанализированы тенденции развития мировой экономики в период пандемии коронавируса. Выявлены предпосылки возможной рецессии стран, в основу которой заложена возникшая инверсия доходностей двухлетних и десятилетних казначейских облигаций США. Анализируя вопрос инверсии доходности установлено, что ее причиной стали спад финансовых рынков, обесценивание нефти и снижение деловой активности по всему миру, которые вынудили участников рынка перевести средства в 10-летние трежерис. Относительно Казахстана в статье проанализированы экономические последствия коронакризиса, а также изучена степень зависимости экономики от нефтяных цен. Отмечено, что переход к диверсифицированной экономике становится для Казахстана особенно актуальным и приоритетным в условиях волатильности цен на нефть. The article reveals the degree of stability of the economy of Kazakhstan to the consequences of the coronavirus crisis. In particular, the impact of oil prices on GDP growth rates and the adequacy of the monetary reserves stored in the National Fund to support the national economy in the event of long-term persistence of low oil prices are considered. To build a more holistic model, data on the country's foreign trade turnover and the inflow of foreign direct investment were also used. The authors analyzed the development trends of the world economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The prerequisites for a possible recession of countries are identified, which is based on the emerging inversion of the yields of two-year and ten-year US Treasury bonds. Analyzing the issue of income inversion, it was found that it was caused by the recession in financial markets, the depreciation of oil and the decline in business activity around the world, which forced market participants to transfer funds to 10-year Treasuries. With regard to Kazakhstan, the article analyzes the economic consequences of the coronavirus crisis, and also studies the degree of dependence of the economy on oil prices. It was noted that the transition to a diversified economy is becoming especially relevant and priority for Kazakhstan in the context of volatility in oil prices.

scholarly journals The fluctuations in oil prices in the OPEC countries and the impact on the world oil market

2017 ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
Zarina Stepanovna Akhlatyan ◽  
◽  
Natalia Vladimirovna Buryanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The World Economy: The impact of rising oil prices and weak equity markets on global growth

2008 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 8-13
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

In interesting times several things may happen simultaneously, and they may have connected roots. The financial turmoil that developed initially in the US banking sector had its roots in financial innovation that had made available cheap finance and increased demand for housing. This wave of low cost finance had spread to Europe, and house prices rose in a correlated way. The increase in demand in the world economy that resulted from strong growth in lending and high asset values helped raise output growth outside the OECD, and this in turn put upward pressure on oil prices. Markets sometimes work slowly, and the effects of the increase in demand on prices appear to be coming through just as the asset bubble is collapsing. The sequence of events was not inevitable, as low personal sector saving in the US and the UK as well as elsewhere could have been offset by tighter fiscal policy, and better prudential regulation of lenders would also definitely have helped. The desire to move financial regulation from the central bank, as in the UK, may have been for good, competition based, reasons, but it has meant that financial sector oversight has not taken account of the macroeconomic implications of a wave of lending that rested on risky financial innovation and therefore it has not properly addressed the issue of systemic risk (see Barrell and Davis, 2005). The resulting financial turmoil has meant that banks have made losses, and have been unable to trust each other's solvency when making deals. As a result three month interbank rates have risen well above central bank intervention rates, as can be seen in figure 1.

scholarly journals Foreign trade of Russia: trends at the stage of the general crisis (2020)

2021 ◽  
pp. 11-19
Author(s):  
I.S. Gladkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Energy Group ◽  
Russian Scientific ◽  
The World ◽  
Trade Turnover ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Foreign Trade Turnover ◽  
First Time

The author examines new trends in the dynamics of foreign trade relations of Russia during the pandemic of 2020, which played a kind of «black swan» in relation to the world economic evolution: the processes of turbulence, which increased in the previous period of development of the world economy and modern international trade, continued in the mechanisms of deployment of a global crisis in 2020 in the context of the introduction of a full lockdown in many countries; this was reflected in the downward trend in prices for fuel and energy group goods, which are very important for domestic exports. The article shows the shifts in Russia’s foreign trade turnover provoked by the crisis. The study used the methodology of comparative and statistical analysis based on the latest statistical materials, as well as a number of official calculations, introduced into the Russian scientific turnover for the first time.

“I Think It’ll All Blow Over in the End”: How Young People Perceive the Impact of COVID-19 on Their Future Orientations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juul Henkens ◽  
Kirsten Visser ◽  
Catrin Finkenauer ◽  
Sander Tim Vermeulen ◽  
gonneke stevens
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The World ◽  
Future Orientations ◽  
The Impact

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has changed the lives of young people all around the world drastically. Because young people’s future orientations are shaped by current experiences, COVID-19 and its social and economic consequences may impact young people’s future orientations. This study explored whether and how COVID-19 has affected young people’s future orientations by means of interviews with 71 Dutch young people with different sociodemographic backgrounds (37 before and 34 during the first months of COVID-19). Results revealed that young people felt COVID-19 had hardly any impact on their future orientations. In line with this, young people’s future orientations before and during COVID-19 were similar and hardly any of the participants mentioned COVID-19 spontaneously during the interview. A few young people indicated that they experienced some impact of COVID-19 on their current lives, short-term futures, or on the societal future in general. Young people’s idea that COVID-19 is temporary, the disconnect between the general future and their personal futures, and their flexible attitudes may partly explain why they did not feel their futures would be affected by COVID-19.

scholarly journals Estimating Prospects of Russian Foreign Trade under Crisis: Sanctions and Countersanctions

2019 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
D.V. Manushin
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Trade Turnover ◽  
Negative Role ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Foreign Trade Turnover ◽  
The Impact

Based on econometric modeling, we proved the good relationship between foreign trade turnover and trade balance with the GDP of the Russian Federation. We identified the varying opinions of the Russian and foreign scholars on the impact of sanctions and countersanctions on the Russian economy. Based on the data on the absolute values of the trade turnover, export, import, and trade balance of Russia from 2010 to 2018, we revealed the positive dynamics of these indices, despite their negative values in 2014-2016. This allowed making a conclusion that the overall results of imposing sanctions and countersanctions for the Russian trade turnover and trade balance is rather positive than negative. This refutes the statements of western politicians, representatives of their subordinate international organizations, and some Russian and foreign scholars about the definitely negative role of sanctions and countersanctions. As a result, it is proposed to review the prospects of imposing additional countersanctions on western countries, which would allow developing the non-food sectors of the Russian economy.

scholarly journals Oil Factor in Economic Development

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sugra Ingilab Humbatova ◽  
Natig Qadim-Oglu Hajiyev
Keyword(s):  
Practical Importance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Production Volume ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
The World ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
World Industry ◽  
The Impact

The research examines the role of oil in the world economy and the evaluation of the oil factor in the economy of Azerbaijan. The error correction model (ECM) has been used in terms of reliability of the obtained results, and assessment has been done by the FMOLS, DOLS and CCR co-integration methods. Engel-Granger and Phillips-Ouliaris co-integration tests have been used for checking the co-integration relations among variables. Times series have been checked whether they are unit root (Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) as a methodology of the research. The results of the research reveal that daily oil production and consumption have less effect on the formation of the world oil prices. On the other hand, the impact of the world GDP and world industry production volume is a bit more. Generally, the influence of these factors on oil market has been reduced gradually. However, the reverse process is observed during the analysis of the influence of oil production and oil price on the main indicators of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Therefore, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are an oil-exporting countries which is why their macroeconomic indicators, especially currency, GDP and DNP, heavily depends on the oil factor. The research has been limited but highlights the obtained results to some problems and this must be considered as a new source for future research. Thus, the similar studies have been considered to be done thoroughly on several alternative econometric models, but a lack of statistical information on a yearly basis and strong currency intervention constitute some barriers to transiting to a floating currency. The practical importance of the research is to prove that the dependency of the oil prices on the world GDP and world industry production, daily oil production and world oil consumption have decreased gradually. In the second part of the research, the dependency of the Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan economies on oil was proved. This might be a signal to transfer oil resources into human capital.

Section II. The impact of higher oil prices: a return to the 70s?

2000 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 38-41
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Third ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
The World ◽  
Imported Oil ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Considerable Concern ◽  
Sustained Increase

The sustained increase in the price of oil has generated considerable concern about the impact of higher oil prices on the world economy. The price of oil has risen from $11 a barrel in the first quarter of 1999 to around $31 a barrel in the third quarter of 2000, and is now at a 15 year high in real terms. Global demand has been increasingly strong and supply has been restricted. Economies with a strong dependence on imported oil, for instance in East Asia, have been growing strongly, and the world upturn has been sharper than many anticipated. Between 1998 and 1999 world oil demand rose by 1.6 per cent to 74.8 million barrels a day, and it is anticipated that demand will have risen again this year by 0.8 million barrels a day. Between 1998 and 1999 OPEC output fell by 1.2 million barrels a day, and non-OPEC supply was constant.

scholarly journals INTERNATIONAL LABOR MIGRATION: CURRENT TRENDS AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 155-167
Author(s):  
V.V. Antropov ◽  
◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Migration ◽  
Labor Migration ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
International Labor ◽  
The World ◽  
International Labor Migration ◽  
The Impact

In recent decades, the impact of international migration on world economic and political processes has increased significantly. Today, international labor migration of the population is one of the most important components of modern processes in the world economy, along with the other components, such as capital flow, goods, technologies and information. Globalization of the world economy has led to new trends in the processes associated with the international migration of labor, requiring scientific study. The object of the article is the modern processes of international labor migration. The aim of the work is to identify and analyze the main trends in international labor migration and its economic consequences. The author used the methods of statistical analysis, analysis of domestic and foreign scientific literature, and the data synthesis. The paper examines the main trends in international labor migration such as an increase in the demographic significance of international migration in the demographic development of economically developed countries, an increase in illegal migration, an increase in the composition of migration flows of highly qualified workers and the proportion of women in the number of international migrants. The article analyzes the economic impact of international labor migration on the economies of countries exporting and importing labor resources. The article concludes that migration will increase in the near future due to three reasons: persisting inequality between rich and poor countries, political and ethnic conflicts in a number of regions and the creation of new free trade zones that will facilitate labor mobility. The conclusions and recommendations of this study may be of interest to researchers and practitioners in addressing labor migration issues in Russia and other countries.

The Impact of The Anchoring and Adjustment Bias on Analysts’ Forecast in Vietnam Stock Market

2013 ◽  
pp. 59-76
Author(s):  
Hien Nguyen Duc ◽  
Hung Trinh Quang ◽  
Giang Bui Huong
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Time Horizon ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Considerable Influence ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Anchoring And Adjustment ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stock Analysts

In this research, we consider a well-known behavioral bias of financial market participants, the anchoring and adjustment bias described by Tversky and Kahneman (1974). Empirical findings have shown that this heuristic has significant economic consequences for the efficiency of the financial market of Vietnam. Specifically, we investigate the existence of anchoring and adjustment bias when stock analysts forecast future earnings of a firm by examining 661 analysts’ reports forecasting prices in Vietnam from 2009 - 2012. In addition, we find that anchoring and adjustment bias appears to have considerable influence over both male and female analysts. With the multi-variable regression model, we find out the effects of anchoring and adjustment bias on different group of analysts as well as the time horizon.

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