scholarly journals Forecasting Mobility Trends in Southeast Asia during the Coronavirus (Covid-19) Pandemic by Machine Learning Approaches

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was declared as the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March 2020. The COVID-19 virus has rapidly spread nationwide and internationally and caused 188 countries to report more than ten million cases of individuals contracting COVID-19. Typically, the virus is conveyed from person to person via respiratory droplets produced by coughing and sneezing. The time period between exposure and onset of symptoms is typically between two and fourteen days, and on average five days. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected many businesses relating to transportation including tourism, import-export commerce, the aviation business, and so forth. Governmental intervention in each country has had an impact on mobility trends depending on the degree of restriction such as social distancing, sharing mobility, and public transport. A COVID-19 surveillance system is one of the principal methods used for detecting COVID-19 epidemics, using short-period monitoring. However, while these networks present information on the activities of COVID-19, acquiring completed surveillance data from every medical station is profusely difficult due to many factors. This research aims to propose a performance model of machine learning approaches for COVID-19 pandemic forecasting of mobility trends in each country in Southeast Asia. Spatial data and non-spatial data are used to build the machine learning models. The experiments conducted showed that the model gave a forecasting accuracy in walking and driving mobility of 94.40% and 92.00%, respectively. The proposed forecasting model was developed to be of benefits to health authorities in the planning and administration of a suitable strategy to make decisions concerning transportation planning in each country.

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bapi Gorain ◽  
Hira Choudhury ◽  
Nagashekhara Molugulu ◽  
Rajani B. Athawale ◽  
Prashant Kesharwani

Sudden outbreak of a new pathogen in numbers of pneumonic patients in Wuhan province during December 2019 has threatened the world population within a short period of its occurrence. This respiratory tract–isolated pathogen was initially named as novel coronavirus 2019 (nCoV-2019), but later termed as SARS-CoV-2. The rapid spreading of this infectious disease received the label of pandemic by the World Health Organization within 4 months of its occurrence, which still seeks continuous attention of the researchers to prevent the spread and for cure of the infected patients. The propagation of the disease has been recorded in 215 countries, with more than 25.5 million cases and a death toll of more than 0.85 million. Several measures are taken to control the disease transmission, and researchers are actively engaged in finding suitable therapeutics to effectively control the disease to minimize the mortality and morbidity rates. Several existing potential candidates were explored in the prevention and treatment of worsening condition of COVID-19 patients; however, none of the formulation has been approved for the treatment but used under medical supervision. In this article, a focus has been made to highlight on current epidemiology on the COVID-19 infection, clinical features, diagnosis, and transmission, with special emphasis on treatment measures of the disease at different stages of clinical research and the global economic influence due to this pandemic situation. Progress in the development on vaccine against COVID-19 has also been explored as important measures to immunize people. Moreover, this article is expected to provide information to the researchers, who are constantly combating in the management against this outbreak.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuele Nicastri ◽  
Nicola Petrosillo ◽  
Tommaso Ascoli Bartoli ◽  
Luciana Lepore ◽  
Annalisa Mondi ◽  
...  

On January 9th, 2020, the “World Health Organization” (WHO) declared the identification, by Chinese Health authorities, of a novel coronavirus, further classified as SARS-CoV-2 responsible of a diseases (COVID-19) ranging from asymptomatic cases to severe respiratory involvement. On March 9th, 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. Italy is the second most affected country by COVID-19 infection after China. The “L. Spallanzani” National Institute for the Infectious Diseases, IRCCS has been the first Italian hospital to admit and manage patients affected by COVID-19. Hereby, we show our recommendations for the management of COVID-19 patients, based on very limited clinical evidences; these recomendations should be considered as expert opinions, which may be modified according to newly produced literature data. *for the INMI COVID-19 Treatment Group – ICOTREG Abdeddaim A, Agrati C, Albarello F, Antinori A, Ascoli Bartoli T, Baldini F, Bellagamba R, Bevilacqua N, Bibas M, Biava G, Boumis E, Busso D, Camici M, Capobianchi MR, Capone A, Caravella I, Cataldo A, Cerilli S, Chinello G, Cicalini S, Corpolongo A, Cristofaro M, D’Abramo A, Dantimi C, De Angelis G, De Palo MG, D’Offizi G, De Zottis F, Di Lorenzo R, Di Stefano F, Fusetti M, Galati V, Gagliardini R, Garotto G, Gebremeskel Tekle Saba, Giancola ML, Giansante F, Girardi E, Goletti D, Granata G, Greci MC, Grilli E, Grisetti S, Gualano G, Iacomi F, Iannicelli G, Ippolito G, Lepore L, Libertone R, Lionetti R, Liuzzi G, Loiacono L, Macchione M,  Marchioni L, Mariano A, Marini MC, Maritti M, Mastrobattista A, Mazzotta V, Mencarini P, Migliorisi-Ramazzini P, Mondi A, Montalbano M, Mosti S, Murachelli S, Musso M, Nicastri E, Noto P, Oliva A, Palazzolo C, Palmieri F, Pareo C, Petrone A, Pianura E, Pinnetti C, Pontarelli A, Puro V, Rianda A, Rosati S, Sampaolesi A, Santagata C, Scarcia D’Aprano S, Scarabello A, Schininà V, Scorzolini L, Stazi GV, Taibi C, Taglietti F, Tonnarini R, Topino S, Vergori A, Vincenzi L, Visco-Comandini U, Vittozzi P, Zaccarelli M, Zaccaro G.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (27) ◽  
pp. 2029-2033
Author(s):  
Aakriti Khemka ◽  
Manpreet Arora ◽  
Aparna Dave ◽  
Pulin Saluja ◽  
Radhika Rai

BACKGROUND COVID 19 has been labelled as a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The sudden rise in death toll and devastation associated with it has put the entire infrastructure, economy and health sector to test. The only way for the prevention and control of this infectious disease is rapid and accurate screening of masses. Public Health Authorities mainly use antibody testing in hot spots using a mix of RT-PCR and antibody testing nasopharyngeal and orpharyngeal swabs. Considering the potential risk factors, constraints of time, cost and manpower, mass screening for COVID is not possible through nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs alone. Hence, to search an alternate method to diagnose for the initial screening of patients is the need of the hour globally. Saliva can also be used as one of the diagnostic modalities for coronavirus, helping in the rapid testing of individuals at home or at hospital. The article intends to explain the evidence regarding the reliability of saliva as a diagnostic specimen in COVID-19 patients and demonstrates the association and potential of detecting novel coronavirus in saliva of patients and how its implication in future can aid in diagnosis as a non - invasive diagnostic modality. KEY WORDS COVID 19, Throat Swab, Nasopharyngeal Swab, Saliva, Diagnostic Fluid


Author(s):  
Bianca Maria Donida

Abstract Background Sars-CoV-2 is a coronavirus associated with human severe acute respiratory disease named Covid-19, first reported in China on December 2019. World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a pandemic on March 20, 2020. This report aims to outline the Italian outbreak characteristics. Italy, as one of first most affected area outside Asian continent, could give experiences to the other countries.Methods Data on positive cases and Covid-19 patients made available by Italian Health Authorities were reanalyzed and described. Results Up to April 18, 2020 Italy recorded 175,925 Sars-CoV-2 positive cases (10.68% among health care professionals) and 23,227 Covid-19 deaths. Covid-19 patients median age was 62 years. Male/female ratio was 1.00. Median time between symptoms and diagnosis was 6 days. Between hospitalized patients, the 10% needed intensive care. Median age at death was 80 years, with differences between sexes. Apparent lethality rate was 13.2%. At least one concomitant medical condition was present in 96.4% of patients who died. Discussion The number of Italian positive cases could be higher and the Italian lethality rate could be lower. The presence of asymptomatic people, known to be a vehicle for Covid-19 also for serious cases, could made slower the decrease of infection and distance the end of the novel coronavirus epidemic.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Tahia Tazin ◽  
Md Nur Alam ◽  
Nahian Nakiba Dola ◽  
Mohammad Sajibul Bari ◽  
Sami Bourouis ◽  
...  

Stroke is a medical disorder in which the blood arteries in the brain are ruptured, causing damage to the brain. When the supply of blood and other nutrients to the brain is interrupted, symptoms might develop. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), stroke is the greatest cause of death and disability globally. Early recognition of the various warning signs of a stroke can help reduce the severity of the stroke. Different machine learning (ML) models have been developed to predict the likelihood of a stroke occurring in the brain. This research uses a range of physiological parameters and machine learning algorithms, such as Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT) Classification, Random Forest (RF) Classification, and Voting Classifier, to train four different models for reliable prediction. Random Forest was the best performing algorithm for this task with an accuracy of approximately 96 percent. The dataset used in the development of the method was the open-access Stroke Prediction dataset. The accuracy percentage of the models used in this investigation is significantly higher than that of previous studies, indicating that the models used in this investigation are more reliable. Numerous model comparisons have established their robustness, and the scheme can be deduced from the study analysis.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 2044-2055

In the past 6 months, the world has come to a standstill due to an escalation in the number of cases of COVID-19. COVID-19 is an infectious disease that was formerly called as 2019-nCoV or the novel Coronavirus 2019. COVID-19 first originated in Wuhan, China, in late December 2019, and subsequently, the World Health Organization declared it as a pandemic on 11th March, 2020. Lack of preparedness for the COVID-19 pandemic has put colossal stress on the healthcare systems of the world’s largest economies. In a short period, the disease has spread to an unexpected number of people due to its high transmission rate and doesn’t show a sign of slowing down in the near future. Estimating the rising number of cases via predictive modeling can help gauge the quantity of various medical amenities required for the treatment of patients as well as protective apparatus for essential workers and susceptible populations. In this paper, we have performed time series forecasting on the publicly available COVID-19 datasets of India using RNNs with LSTM and GRU. Additionally, we also employ the final models for analyzing similar data from different countries.


Author(s):  
Ketki . ◽  
Sonali Gupta ◽  
Vijay Paliwal ◽  
Rachita Mathur ◽  
Deepak K. Mathur

<p class="abstract"><strong>Background: </strong>The novel coronavirus, referred to as SARS-COV 2 causing COVID 19, has become a great health challenge to the mankind. After its origin from Wuhan, China, it spread all over the globe within a short period of time. World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared COVID 19 as pandemic on 11th March, 2020. Aerosoles or droplets are the commonest mode of infection through respiratory tract making it mandatory to wear masks as a preventive measure.</p><p class="abstract"><strong>Methods: </strong>It is a cross-sectional study conducted over patients attending the out patients department of Dermatology. They were observed for presence of dermatosis over the face and categorized according to nature of dermatoses.</p><p class="abstract"><strong>Results:</strong> We observed 385 patients, 200 (52%) patients had new dermatoses and 185 (48%) patients noticed flare of existing dermatoses. The predominant new dermatoses were dermatophytosis, indentations, sweat induced dermatitis, urticaria, pressure urticaria developing with indentations, contact dermatitis to metal and other materials in 49 (24.5%%), 42 (21%), 42 (21%) ,38(19%), 19 (9.5%) and 10 (5%) cases respectively. The flared dermatoses were acne, rosacea , plane warts and molluscum contagiosum in 120 (64.8%), 24 (12.9%), 22 (11.9%) and 17 (9.2%) cases respectively. Koebnerisation of vitiligo and lichen planus was also seen in few subjects.</p><p class="abstract"><strong>Conclusions:</strong> The prolonged use of face mask may cause various infective and non infective facial dermatoses. In the current scenario, it is mandatory to wear face mask as a preventive measure hence it is important to wear the mask properly. However, care of the mask as well as breaks from the mask are important factors to avoid the development of mask associated dermatosis.</p>


2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-6
Author(s):  
Robert J. Barth

Abstract “Posttraumatic” headaches claims are controversial because they are subjective reports often provided in the complex of litigation, and the underlying pathogenesis is not defined. This article reviews principles and scientific considerations in the AMAGuides to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment (AMA Guides) that should be noted by evaluators who examine such cases. Some examples in the AMA Guides, Sixth Edition, may seem to imply that mild head trauma can cause permanent impairment due to headache. The author examines scientific findings that present obstacles to claiming that concussion or mild traumatic brain injury is a cause of permanent headache. The World Health Organization, for example, found a favorable prognosis for posttraumatic headache, and complete recovery over a short period of time was the norm. Other studies have highlighted the lack of a dose-response correlation between trauma and prolonged headache complaints, both in terms of the frequency and the severity of trauma. On the one hand, scientific studies have failed to support the hypothesis of a causative relationship between trauma and permanent or prolonged headaches; on the other hand, non–trauma-related factors are strongly associated with complaints of prolonged headache.


Author(s):  
Ghotekar D S ◽  
Vishal N Kushare ◽  
Sagar V Ghotekar

Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that cause illness such as respiratory diseases or gastrointestinal diseases. Respiratory diseases can range from the common cold to more severe diseases. A novel coronavirus outbreak was first documented in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. A global coordinated effort is needed to stop the further spread of the virus. A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been identified in humans previously. Once scientists determine exactly what coronavirus it is, they give it a name (as in the case of COVID-19, the virus causing it is SARS-CoV-2).


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 862-869
Author(s):  
Meena Kumari ◽  
Monika Agrawal ◽  
Rakesh Kumar Singh ◽  
Parameswarappa S Byadgi

Currently, the world is facing a health and socioeconomic crisis caused by the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared this disease as a pandemic. The condition (COVID-19) is an infectious disorder triggered by a newly discovered severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2. Most of the COVID-19 infected patients will experience mild to moderate respiratory symptoms and recover without any unique therapy. Assessment of the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 cases suggests the infected patients will not be contagious until the onset of severe symptoms and affects the other organs. Well-differentiated cells of apical airway epithelia communicating with ACE2 were promptly infected to SARS-CoV-2 virus. But the expression of ACE 2 in poorly differentiated epithelia facilitated SARS spike (S) protein-pseudo typed virus entry and it is replicated in polarized epithelia and especially exited via the apical surface. Limiting the transmission of COVID-19 infection & its prevention can be regarded as a hierarchy of controls. In this article, we briefly discuss the most recent advances in respect to aetiology, pathogenesis and clinical progression of the disease COVID-19.


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