scholarly journals Projection of Future Water Supply Sustainability in Agricultural Reservoirs under RCP Climate Change Scenarios

2014 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 59-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Won-Ho Nam ◽  
Eun-Mi Hong ◽  
Taegon Kim ◽  
Jin-Yong Choi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noora Veijalainen ◽  
Lauri Ahopelto ◽  
Mika Marttunen ◽  
Jaakko Jääskeläinen ◽  
Ritva Britschgi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.

scholarly journals Impact of future climate change on water supply and irrigation demand in a small mediterranean catchment. Case study: Nebhana dam system, Tunisia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1724-1747 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Allani ◽  
R. Mezzi ◽  
A. Zouabi ◽  
R. Béji ◽  
F. Joumade-Mansouri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Cycle Duration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Time Periods

Abstract This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand of the Nebhana dam system. Future climate change scenarios were obtained from five general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for the time periods, 2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. Statistical downscaling was applied using LARS-WG. The GR2M hydrological model was calibrated, validated and used as input to the WEAP model to assess future water availability. Expected crop growth cycle lengths were estimated using a growing degree days model. By means of the WEAP-MABIA method, projected crop and irrigation water requirements were estimated. Results show an average increase in annual ETo of 6.1% and a decrease in annual rainfall of 11.4%, leading to a 24% decrease in inflow. Also, crops' growing cycles will decrease from 5.4% for wheat to 31% for citrus trees. The same tendency is observed for ETc. Concerning irrigation requirement, variations are more moderated depending on RCPs and time periods, and is explained by rainfall and crop cycle duration variations. As for demand and supply, results currently show that supply does not meet the system demand. Climate change could worsen the situation unless better planning of water surface use is done.

Present and future water security under socioeconomic and climate changes in the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres Goyburo ◽  
Pedro Rau ◽  
Waldo Lavado ◽  
Fabian Drenkhan ◽  
Wouter Buytaert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
Current Water ◽  
The Impact

<p>This research assesses present (2009-2016) and future (until 2100) levels of water security taking into consideration socioeconomic and climate change scenarios using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) tool for semidistributed hydrological modeling. The study area covers the  Vilcanota-Urubamba basin in the southern Peruvian Andes and presents a complex water demand context as a glacier-fed system.</p><p>Current total water demand is estimated in 5.12E+9 m3/year and includes agriculture (6674.17 m3/year), domestic (7.79E+07m3/year), industrial (1.01E+06 m3/year) and energy (5.03e+9 m3/year) consumption. For assessing the current water supply, observed flow data is used to simulate and validate the model (also accounting for glacier melt contribution). The analysis of unmet water demand for the period 2016–2100 was computed using the soil moisture scheme of the WEAP model, which simulates the hydrological cycle and generates future scenarios for water demand. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth and increasing agriculture area) and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. </p><p>These results will allow for the first time to evaluate the impact of changes in glacier melt contributions on water security taking into account also changes in water demand.</p><p>This study also further explores the importance of incorporating science and policy within a broader study of water security. As a result, it is expected to deliver high spatial resolution water demand maps and adaptation strategies for stakeholders. This research is part of the RAHU project as a new multidisciplinary collaboration between UK and Peruvian scientists.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Water Supply Stability for Drought-Vulnerable Boryeong Multipurpose Dam in South Korea Using Future Dry Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim ◽  
Lee ◽  
Kim ◽  
Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Multipurpose Dam

This study assessed the water supply stability for Boryeong multipurpose dam by applying future dry climate change scenarios and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). CMCC-CM, INM-CM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were selected as the future dry conditions using Runs theory and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). For historical (1980–1999), present (2000–2019), and future periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) of the 6 scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate the future dam water supply stability. The stability was evaluated in terms of reliability (RT), resilience (RS), and vulnerability (V) based on the monthly target storage. The results showed that the future RT can be decreased to 0.803 in 2050s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 8.5 scenario from present 0.955. The future RS and V showed the minimum value of 0.003 and the biggest value of 3567.6 × 106 m3 in 2070s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 scenario. The future RT, RS, and V showed that the dam has low resilience and is vulnerable to future drought scenarios.

Incorporating climate change adaptation strategies in urban water supply planning: the case of central Chile

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 357-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Bonelli ◽  
Sebastián Vicuña ◽  
Francisco J. Meza ◽  
Jorge Gironás ◽  
Jonathan Barton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Water System ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Central Chile

Water management systems have been typically designed and operated under the assumption of stationarity. This assumption may no longer be valid under climate change scenarios. Water availability may change dramatically at some locations due mainly to possible impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation over streamflow volume and seasonality, adding pressure to water supply systems. It has been shown that snowmelt-dominated basins are particularly sensitive to such changes. Hence, human settlements and economic activities developed in such areas are particularly vulnerable. The Maipo river basin in Central Chile – where more than 6 million people live – is one of these areas. We used a calibrated water resources model of the Maipo river basin, in order to propose a general framework to evaluate adaptation options at the urban level. When comparing a mid-21st century period to a historic control period, results for three selected performance metrics showed a decrease in water system performance. Adaptation measures were evaluated in their capacity to maintain current water security standards. Two alternatives stand as highly effective options to this end: water rights purchases and improvements in water use efficiency. The political and economic costs of implementing these options, which could deem them unviable, are not considered here but are worthy of further research.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on water resources in the major countries along the Belt and Road

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12201
Author(s):  
Panpan Du ◽  
Ming Xu ◽  
Renqiang Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

Background Climate change has altered global hydrological cycles mainly due to changes in temperature and precipitation, which may exacerbate the global and regional water shortage issues, especially in the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). Methods In this paper, we assessed water supply, demand, and stress under three climate change scenarios in the major countries along the Belt and Road. We ensembled ten Global Climate Model (GCM) runoff data and downscaled it to a finer resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° by the random forest model. Results Our results showed that the GCM runoff was highly correlated with the FAO renewable water resources and thus could be used to estimate water supply. Climate change would increase water supply by 4.85%, 5.18%, 8.16% and water demand by 1.45%, 1.68%, 2.36% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios by 2050s, respectively. As a result, climate change will, in general, have little impact on water stress in the B&R countries as a whole. However, climate change will make future water resources more unevenly distributed among the B&R countries and regions, exacerbating water stress in some countries, especially in Central Asia and West Asia. Our results are informative for water resource managers and policymakers in the B&R countries to make sustainable water management strategies under future climate change.

scholarly journals Climate change impact on water supply demands: case study of the city of Skopje

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 2172-2178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katerina Donevska ◽  
Angelco Panov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The City

Abstract The aim of the paper is to present the climate change impact on drinking water supply, and to assess the availability of current water resources to meet the increasing demands in climate change conditions, for the city of Skopje. Series of monthly precipitation and temperature data are estimated up to 2050, using recorded data and data for predicted changes of air temperature and precipitation according to climate change scenarios. Climate change impact on drinking water supply is assessed using multi-regression models for the dependence of the water supply data on the main climate parameters: temperature and precipitation. Forecast of future water quantities includes implementation of multi-regression models defined with a set of independent variables: the number of the population for time sets (t, t-1, t-2, t-3), precipitation and air temperature including predicted changes of the data under climate change conditions for the same time sets. Two scenarios are analysed: the first predicts that the number of the population until 2050 remains nearly the same as nowadays, the second predicts an increase of the number of the population at an average annual rate of increase of 0.58%. Results indicate shortage of available water resources for population and industry in climate change scenarios (increase of temperatures and decrease of precipitation) and increase of population.

Climate change and reliability of urban water supply

2003 ◽  
Vol 47 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 101-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Maheepala ◽  
C. Perera
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Urban Water Supply ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Supply Systems

This paper describes a probability-based method for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban water supply systems. Specifically, the assessment method uses probability distributions to place a confidence level on the plausible values of response variables. The Benalla water supply system has been used to demonstrate applicability of the proposed assessment method. For the application, the impact of the 2030 climate change scenarios on streamflows and system yield has been examined. The preliminary results have demonstrated that the proposed assessment method can provide valuable insights into the impact of climate change on water supply systems, allowing it to be incorporated into planning decisions.

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