scholarly journals On forecasting daily summer maximum temperature at Madras

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-102
Author(s):  
Y. E. A. RAJ
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Optimal Number ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Statistical Techniques ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Summer Maximum ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Forecasting schemes based on statistical techniques have been developed to forecast daily summer (March-May) maximum temperatures of Madras. A set of optimal number of predictors were chosen from a large number of parameters by employing stepwise forward screening. Separate forecasting schemes for Madras city and airport, with lead time of 24 and 9 hr were developed from the data of 12 years and tested in an independent sample of 4 years. Maximum temperature of the previous day, normal daily maximum temperature, temperature advection index and morning zonal wind at Madras at 900 hPa level were among the predictors selected. The schemes yielded good results providing 77-87% correct, forecasts with skill scores of 0.29-0.57.

scholarly journals Summer maximum temperature over the gulf cooperation council states in the twenty-first century: multimodel simulations overview

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansour Almazroui
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
The Future ◽  
Summer Maximum ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The present study analyzes the Survivability for a Fit Human Threshold (SFHT) maximum temperature during the summer (June–August) over the six Middle Eastern countries known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the twenty-first century. An ensemble of three dynamically downscaled global climate models available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios is used to analyze the future climate (2006–2099) over the region. The ground-truth air temperature for ten major cities across the GCC countries is utilized for model evaluation and to estimate the model-simulated temperature biases. Both positive and negative biases found during the present climate (1976–2005) are used to adjust the future temperature changes. These adjustments show that the summer maximum temperature is likely to increase continuously for most cities in the GCC countries at the rate of about 0.2 °C (0.6 °C) per decade under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) for the future period (2020–2099), which is significant at the 99% confidence level. For RCP8.5, the adjusted summer maximum temperature may exceed the SFHT limit of 42 °C in five capital cities of the GCC states and four major cities of Saudi Arabia. The projections based on adjusted values indicate that the average summer maximum temperature should not exceed 52 °C in any city investigated by the end of the twenty-first century. The daily maximum temperature is projected to exceed 55 °C in some cities in the GCC region by the end of the twenty-first century under a business-as-usual scenario that seems to be unrealistic if the biases are not taken into account. It is highly recommended that the GCC states should coordinate their efforts to respond appropriately to these projections using large ensembles of multimodel simulations while allowing for the associated uncertainty.

Effects of patchy shade on stream water temperature: how quickly do small streams heat and cool?

2004 ◽  
Vol 55 (8) ◽  
pp. 737 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Christopher Rutherford ◽  
Nicholas A. Marsh ◽  
Peter M. Davies ◽  
Stuart E. Bunn
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Dynamic Equilibrium ◽  
Stream Water ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Small Streams ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Strong Linear Relationship

Summer field observations in five 2nd order streams (width 1–2 m, depth 5–15 cm, velocity 5–10 cm s–1) in Western Australia and south-east Queensland showed that daily maximum temperatures changed by ±4°C over distances of 600–960 m (travel time 2–3 h) immediately downstream from 40–70% step changes in riparian shade. There was a strong linear relationship between the rate of change of daily maximum temperature and the change of shade such that downstream from a 100% change of shade the heating/cooling rates are ±4°C h–1 and ±10°C km–1 (upper bound ±6°C h–1 and ±15°C km–1) respectively. These high rates only apply over short distances and travel times because downstream water temperatures adjust to the new level of shade and reach a dynamic equilibrium. Shade was too patchy in the study streams to measure how long water takes to reach equilibrium, however, using an existing computer model, we estimate that this occurs after ~1200 m (travel time 4 h). Further modelling work is desirable to predict equilibrium temperatures under given meteorological, flow and shade conditions. Nevertheless, landowners and regulators can use this information to determine whether the presence/absence of certain lengths of bankside shade are likely to cause desirable/undesirable temperature decreases/increases.

Prediction of temperatures in cattle dung for estimating development times of coprophilous organisms

1988 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. N. Matthiessen ◽  
M. J. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Threshold Temperature ◽  
Cattle Dung ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Daily Minimum ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Minimum Air Temperature

AbstractIn studies in Western Australia, temperatures in air and one- and two-litre pads of cattle dung set out weekly and ranging from one to 20 days old were measured hourly for 438 days over all seasons, producing 1437 day x dung-pad observations. Daily maximum temperatures (and hence thermal accumulation) in cattle dung pads could not be accurately predicted using meteorological data alone. An accurate predictor of daily maximum dung temperature, using multiple regression analysis, required measurement of the following factors: maximum air temperature, hours of sunshine, rainfall, a seasonal factor (the day number derived from a linear interpolation of day number from day 0 at the winter solstice to day 182 at the preceding and following summer solstices) and a dung-pad age-specific intercept term, giving an equation that explained a 91·4% of the variation in maximum dung temperature. Daily maximum temperature in two-litre dung pads was 0·6°C cooler than in one-litre pads. Daily minimum dung temperature equalled minimum air temperature, and daily minimum dung temperatures occurred at 05.00 h and maximum temperatures at 14.00 h for one-litre and 14.30 h for two-litre pads. Thus, thermal summation in a dung pad above any threshold temperature can be computed using a skewed sine curve fitted to daily minimum air temperature and the calculated maximum dung temperature.

scholarly journals Developing a forecasting model for cholera incidence in Dhaka megacity through time series climate data

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-223
Author(s):  
Salima Sultana Daisy ◽  
A. K. M. Saiful Islam ◽  
Ali Shafqat Akanda ◽  
Abu Syed Golam Faruque ◽  
Nuhu Amin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Auto Regressive

Abstract Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease spread by lack of hygiene and contaminated water, is a major public health risk in many countries. As cholera is triggered by environmental conditions influenced by climatic variables, establishing a correlation between cholera incidence and climatic variables would provide an opportunity to develop a cholera forecasting model. Considering the auto-regressive nature and the seasonal behavioral patterns of cholera, a seasonal-auto-regressive-integrated-moving-average (SARIMA) model was used for time-series analysis during 2000–2013. As both rainfall (r = 0.43) and maximum temperature (r = 0.56) have the strongest influence on the occurrence of cholera incidence, single-variable (SVMs) and multi-variable SARIMA models (MVMs) were developed, compared and tested for evaluating their relationship with cholera incidence. A low relationship was found with relative humidity (r = 0.28), ENSO (r = 0.21) and SOI (r = −0.23). Using SVM for a 1 °C increase in maximum temperature at one-month lead time showed a 7% increase of cholera incidence (p < 0.001). However, MVM (AIC = 15, BIC = 36) showed better performance than SVM (AIC = 21, BIC = 39). An MVM using rainfall and monthly mean daily maximum temperature with a one-month lead time showed a better fit (RMSE = 14.7, MAE = 11) than the MVM with no lead time (RMSE = 16.2, MAE = 13.2) in forecasting. This result will assist in predicting cholera risks and better preparedness for public health management in the future.

scholarly journals Climate Trends at a Hotspot of Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Causes in Nicaragua, 1973–2014

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 5418
Author(s):  
Zoe E. Petropoulos ◽  
Oriana Ramirez-Rubio ◽  
Madeleine K. Scammell ◽  
Rebecca L. Laws ◽  
Damaris Lopez-Pilarte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

An ongoing epidemic of chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology (CKDu) afflicts large parts of Central America and is hypothesized to be linked to heat stress at work. Mortality rates from CKDu appear to have increased dramatically since the 1970s. To explore this relationship, we assessed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures during harvest months between 1973 and 2014 as well as in the number of days during the harvest season for which the maximum temperature surpassed 35 °C. Data were collected at a weather station at a Nicaraguan sugar company where large numbers of workers have been affected by CKDu. Monthly averages of the daily maximum temperatures between 1996 and 2014 were also compared to concurrent weather data from eight Automated Surface Observing System Network weather stations across Nicaragua. Our objectives were to assess changes in temperature across harvest seasons, estimate the number of days that workers were at risk of heat-related illness and compare daily maximum temperatures across various sites in Nicaragua. The monthly average daily maximum temperature during the harvest season increased by 0.7 °C per decade between 1973 and 1990. The number of days per harvest season with a maximum temperature over 35 °C increased by approximately five days per year between 1974 and 1990, from 32 days to 114 days. Between 1991 and 2013, the number of harvest days with a maximum temperature over 35 °C decreased by two days per year, and the monthly average daily maximum temperature decreased by 0.3 °C per decade. Comparisons with weather stations across Nicaragua demonstrate that this company is located in one of the consistently hottest regions of the country.

scholarly journals Impact of Aligning Climatological Day on Gridding Daily Maximum–Minimum Temperature and Precipitation over Canada

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
pp. 1654-1665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ron F. Hopkinson ◽  
Daniel W. McKenney ◽  
Ewa J. Milewska ◽  
Michael F. Hutchinson ◽  
Pia Papadopol ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Daily Minimum ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
National University ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

AbstractOn 1 July 1961, the climatological day was redefined to end at 0600 UTC at all principal climate stations in Canada. Prior to that, the climatological day at principal stations ended at 1200 UTC for maximum temperature and precipitation and 0000 UTC for minimum temperature and was similar to the climatological day at ordinary stations. Hutchinson et al. reported occasional larger-than-expected residuals at 50 withheld stations when the Australian National University Spline (ANUSPLIN) interpolation scheme was applied to daily data for 1961–2003, and it was suggested that these larger residuals were in part due to the existence of different climatological days. In this study, daily minimum and maximum temperatures at principal stations were estimated using hourly temperatures for the same climatological day as local ordinary climate stations for the period 1953–2007. Daily precipitation was estimated at principal stations using synoptic precipitation data for the climatological day ending at 1200 UTC, which, for much of the country, was close to the time of the morning observation at ordinary climate stations. At withheld principal stations, the climatological-day adjustments led to the virtual elimination of large residuals in maximum and minimum temperature and a marked reduction in precipitation residuals. Across all 50 withheld stations the climatological day adjustments led to significant reductions, by around 12% for daily maximum temperature, 15% for daily minimum temperature, and 22% for precipitation, in the residuals reported by Hutchinson et al.

scholarly journals Trends in Weather Conditions and Performance by Age Groups Over the History of the Berlin Marathon

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beat Knechtle ◽  
David Valero ◽  
Elias Villiger ◽  
José R. Alvero-Cruz ◽  
Pantelis T. Nikolaidis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Impaired Performance ◽  
Marathon Race ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

The effect of different environmental conditions such as temperature, wind, barometric pressure, and precipitation has been well investigated in elite marathoners, but not by age categories (i.e., age group marathoners). The aim of the study was to investigate the potential influence of environmental conditions such as temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure on marathon performance in age group marathoners competing in the ‘Berlin Marathon’ from 1974 to 2019. A total of 869,474 valid finisher records were available for analysis, of which 711,136 correspond to males and 158,338 to females. The influence of temperature, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on marathon race times was investigated in age group marathoners grouped in 5-year-intervals. Within the 46 years of Berlin marathons under investigation, there was some level of precipitation for 18 years, and 28 years without any rain. Sunshine was predominant in 25 of the events, whilst in the other 21 years, cloud cover was predominant. Marathon race times were significantly and positively correlated with age (i.e., older runners were slower than younger runners) where the correlation was higher for males than for females. Marathon race times were significantly and positively correlated with both the hours of sunshine and the daily maximum temperature. The fastest marathon runners (meaning the minimum times) achieved the fastest race times on race days with higher maximum temperatures (i.e., 15–30°C). Daily maximum temperatures showed an influence on age group marathoners from age group 35–40 years and older. Higher precipitation levels impaired performance across most age groups. In summary, higher daily maximum temperatures (i.e., >15°C) and higher precipitation levels impaired performance of master marathoners (i.e., 35–40 years and older) competing in the ‘Berlin Marathon’ in the last 45 years. Master marathoners should start in marathon races with temperatures < 15°C and no precipitation in order to achieve a fast marathon race time.

scholarly journals Trends of the daily maximum temperatures in relation with the climatic change and the urbanization in the Athens basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 186-194
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Societal Implications ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

It is well known that the studies that associate the climatic changes with the greenhouse effect, as a sequence of uninterruptedly ongoing figures in the concentration mainly of carbon dioxide, have been focused on the trends of the mean temperature. On the other hand the variability and the trends of the extreme temperature values have not been considered sufficiently. We notice that the variability of the maximum and minimum temperature values and generally of the extreme weather has direct economic and societal implications. The interest in this paper is focused on the study of the trends of the daily and the monthly maximum temperature during the warm months July and August for the time period from 1955 to 2000 in the wide Athens area and specifically measurements of the Nea Philadelphia and Helliniko meteorological stations. Nea Philadelphia represents an immiscibly urban area station, while Helliniko a coastal suburban area one. The specific sites were selected for the comparative study of the temperature maximum trends in a time period which covers the population growth in the area of Athens. For the whole time period, the differences of the daily maximum temperature from the corresponding 10-days period mean maximum temperatures per month were calculated for each site. Then, the days with positive difference per month and per year as well as the trends of the time-series for each station were recorded along with the statistical significance of the regression slope’s value using the Student t-test distribution. Furthermore, in order to identify the “warmest decade” in the time-series, a study of the daily maximum temperature trend for the months July and August was performed for each decade followed by a test for the statistical significance of the slope coefficient. It is known that the presumable differences of the temperature time-series depend on the influence of the urbanization, the modification of the natural suburban environment and / or on the stations’ displacement. Based on these facts, we present more in this paper the conclusions of a comparative study of the results regarding each station analytically as well as the interpretation of the results concerning all the stations as an ensemble.

scholarly journals Lyapunov Exponents and Temperature Transitions in a Warming Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (10) ◽  
pp. 2969-2989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Gilmore
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Maximum Daily Temperature ◽  
State Variable ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Abstract Multiple potential tipping points in the Earth system that involve alternative states have been identified that are susceptible to anthropogenic forcing. Past events—from millions of years ago to within the last century—have manifest as abrupt changes in climatic indicators such as the temperature record. Recent unprecedented heat waves in Australia, their associated devastation, and the considerations above provide motivation to ask whether the Australian daily maximum temperature record has been subject to such abrupt changes. Using a new diagnostic tool—the Lyapunov plot—here it is shown that multiple temperature transitions have occurred with respect to the maximum daily temperature record in widely separated locations in Australia over the last 150 years. All maximum Lyapunov exponents are positive in sign, indicating that the transitions are chaos-to-chaos transitions, and that the different climate modes identified are likely to be manifestations of distinct chaotic attractors. Many of these events occur simultaneously with transitions or extremes in the major natural cycles affecting Australia’s climate, but this observation is not universal. It is known that chaos-to-chaos transitions can result in changes in the value(s) of the state variable(s) that can range from subtle to severe. Although the identified transitions are not catastrophic, this observation does not rule out the possibility of severe, unprecedented, and discontinuous increases in average daily maximum temperatures occurring in Australia at any time within the next few decades.

scholarly journals Spatial Characteristics of Heat Extremes in South Korea from the Climatological Mean Perspective

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 250
Author(s):  
Doo-Sun R. Park ◽  
Suyeon Yang ◽  
Hyung Wook Cho ◽  
Tae-Won Park
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Onset Date ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Spatial Characteristics ◽  
Eastern Area ◽  
Mountain Ranges ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Heat Extremes

We investigated the spatial characteristics of heat extremes in South Korea from the climatological mean perspective. A heat extreme was defined as a day when the daily maximum temperature was higher than 33 °C. According to our analyses, the eastern area of the Sobaek and Taebaek mountain ranges (hereafter called the eastern district) is significantly more exposed to heat extremes compared to other areas. The onset date and total number of days of annual heat extremes in the eastern district are approximately 13 days earlier and 3 days higher than those in the western district on average, respectively. Likewise, the annual mean of daily maximum temperatures during heat extreme days are approximately 0.25 °C higher. This larger exposure to heat extremes in the eastern district appears to be attributable to the Föhn phenomenon, which is likely induced by the dominant southwesterly monsoon during the early-to-peak summer. In contrast, differences in the ending dates of annual heat extremes are not noticeable between the eastern and western districts, when the southerly winds are dominant. Our analyses suggest that heat extremes in South Korea cannot be understood by a simple function of latitude, but in conjunction with atmospheric physical processes.

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