scholarly journals Yield potential of world wheat based on ARIMA model under global warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-406
Author(s):  
CAI CHENG-ZHI ◽  
CAO WEN-FANG ◽  
ZENG XIAO-SHAN ◽  
ZUO JIN ◽  
XIAO DAN ◽  
...  

As the most important food crop across the world, with continuous increase in world population and steady declining farmlands, wheat has been attracting academic attention for improving its yield or potential in the future particularly under global warming. Therefore, analyzing the yield or potential of wheat at global level relevant to greenhouse gas effect is of great significance to direct future production of wheat in the world. However up to now, there are relatively few reports on potential yield of world wheat projected using ‘time series’ approach like ARIMA (Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average) model. Thus in this paper, the crop potential yield of world wheat during 2019 to 2028 is projected using ARIMA model based on the yields from 1961 to 2018. Our results show that during 2019 to 2028, the average yields of world wheat are projected to increase from 3569 to 4257 kg ha-1 while top yields of world wheat from 9852 to 11246 kg ha-1. Annual global mean temperatures are projected to increase from 15.05 to 15.31°C. Global warming exerts positive effect on average yield of world wheat while negative effect on the top yield in 1961 to 2018 and 2028. Our study concluded that for world wheat production in 2019 to 2028, the opportunities for improving production should be mainly dependent on the advantage of highyield countries as the yield is still in low place before the turn-point of S-shaped curve in long-term trend affected partly by greenhouse gas effect.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alaa F. Eftaiha ◽  
Abdussalam K. Qaroush ◽  
Areej K. Hasan ◽  
Khaleel I. Assaf ◽  
Feda'a Al-Qaisi ◽  
...  

CO2 is the most influential greenhouse gas with its drastic effects all over the world. Meanwhile, global warming is considered as a hot topic to different slices of scientists dealing...


2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-99
Author(s):  
Gerd Brantes Angelkorte

The concern with global warming impacts on the environment has made the world population search for new energy sources that are less aggressive to the environment. Therefore, biodiesel has become more relevant and has expanded its proportion in the blend with diesel. However, Brazil still uses about 20% of bovine tallow, which emits large amount of GHG, degrades the soil and entails great water consumption. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the possibilities and effects of the substitution of this nonrenewable source for others of vegetable origin, as well as the environmental effects of increasing the percentage of biodiesel, reaching levels of 20% and 30%. Hence, two types of biodiesel were produced and tested, with and without bovine tallow, and the results obtained and data from the diesel fleet were used to model the impacts and CO2eq emissions with the aid of the MoMo Lite model in Brazil. It was possible to determine the great benefit of adopting higher levels of biodiesel in diesel (especially when there was a substitution of bovine tallow for plant sources), besides the importance of adopting broader analysis of the whole production cycle of the raw material. Since only CO2eq emission data were observed at the burning, the results varied only 10%, but when the results were analyzed through the well-to-tank, this variation rose to 52%.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Andy Reisinger ◽  
Annette Cowie ◽  
Oliver Geden

<p>With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 the world has decided that warming should be kept well below 2°C while pursuing a limit of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. The Paris Agreement also sets a net emissions reduction goal: in the second half of the century, the balance of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals should become net zero. Since 2018, in response to the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, a flurry of net zero target announcements has ensued. Many countries, cities, regions, companies, or other organisations have come forward with targets to reach net zero, or become carbon or climate neutral. These labels describe a wide variety of targets, and rarely detailed. Lack of transparency renders it impossible to understand their ultimate contribution towards the global goal. Here we present a set of key criteria that high-quality net zero targets should address. These nine criteria cover emissions, removals, timing, fairness and a long-term vision. Unless net zero targets provide clarity on these nine criteria, we may not know until it is too late whether the collective promise of net zero targets is adequate to meet the global goal of the Paris Agreement.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 01006
Author(s):  
Leonid Sorokin

The Race to Zero is the largest credible alliance aiming to reduce twice emissions by 2030, with the main goal of moving towards a carbon-zero economy by 2050. Zero emission technologies can reduce the greenhouse gas concentrations in Atmosphere that can help to slowdown the Global Warming but for making the Earth’s climate system more stable we need implement Negative emission technologies. Negative emission technologies can significantly reduce the greenhouse gas concentrations in Atmosphere that can getting down the global average temperature to the pre-industrial level and prevent Global Warming and future Sea Level Rise. The currently observed climatic changes cannot be completely explained by the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Taking into account the impact of methane emissions, including the Polar Regions and the World Ocean, it will be possible to explain rapid changes in the Earth's climate. For getting the Earth’s climate system stable and predictable we need to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the global average temperature to the pre-industrial levels. If this aims cannot be achieved then Climate Change and associated with Global Warming future Sea Level Rise in the nearest future would be the most important Risk factors in the Global World and World Economy, that can provide the world massive losses and economic crisis.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manasi Dash ◽  
Abinash Mishra ◽  
Mahendra Kumar Mohanty

Bioenergy including biofuels from lignocellulosic biomass has immense potential to meet growing energy demand of the ever-growing world population. Bioenergy will help to mitigate the environmental problems arising due to burning of fossil fuels. Rice is the staple food for more than half of the world population and is grown in more than 100 countries. Rice straw is rich in lignocellulose and several technologies are available for efficient extraction and conversion of cellulose to ethanol. Thus, the surplus rice straw can be utilised to produce biofuel, so as to replace conventional fossil fuel sources. But it is reported that the present-day rice varieties showing high lignocellulosic straw biomass have low grain yield potential. Hence, it is important to re orient the breeding strategies for developing dual purpose rice varieties that are bioenergy efficient without compromising grain yield.


Author(s):  
Betty J. Diener ◽  
William P. Frank

It is likely that the future environment of our globe depends on the actions taken by China and India as they develop into two of the three largest economies in the world over the next twenty-five years.  The global warming problem alone will be dominated by the total greenhouse gas emissions from these two countries.  This article summarizes the economic growth of these two countries, the resulting increasing environmental problems, the trends and impacts of increased energy consumption, the trends and impacts of greenhouse gas emissions, and the potential for reducing these impacts, should the two countries have the will to do so.


2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-374
Author(s):  
CAI CHENG-ZHI ◽  
LIAO CONG-JIAN ◽  
XIAO DAN ◽  
ZENG XIAO-SHAN ◽  
ZUO JIN

The crop yield potential of world soybean from 2019 to 2028 has been projected using ARIMA model based on the yields from 1961 to 2018. Both annual global mean temperature and the yields of world soybean have been projected to rise during the ensuing decade 2019-2028. Projected average yields of world soybean varies from 2841 to 3276 kg ha-1 while 4324 to 4807 kg ha-1 in the case of top (national) yields of world soybean. Annual global mean temperatures may vary from 15.0 to 15.3oC and likely to exert positive impact on average yield (R squared = 0.80) while negative on top yield (R squared = 0.40) of world soybean. It may be concluded that for world soybean yields in 2019 to 2028, the opportunities for improving production should be dependent on both high and low-yielding countries as the yield remained between 30 and 70 per cent of potential limit i.e. in middle place around the turn-point of S-shaped curve in long-term trend partly affected by global warming.


Author(s):  
Lemma Abayneh Tumebo

All estimates suggest that by 2050, upto 50% increase in food production will be required to feed the world population. Wheat is the second most important crop after rice and by 2050, wheat production needs to be increased by 60% for socio-economic stability. However, the climate change induced global warming will have adverse effect on crop plants including wheat. To deal with the crop yield decrease influenced by global warming, an indepth study of heat induced morpho-physiological and molecular changes in wheat will result in better understanding of the plant. This review focuses on the impact of high temperature on the morphological, physiological, reproductive development and signaling in plants.


POPULATION ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 142-153
Author(s):  
Vladimir Tetelmin

The continuous increase in human energy production per caput is accompanied by an increase in the world population. The work considers the demographic history of civilization as a function of the growing production and use of the energy by mankind. The evolution in the «energy-man» system took place relatively safely for the biosphere and a man up to the value of the per caput energy consumption of 11,000 kW*h/year*person that was achieved by civilization in 1950. Modern high per caput energy consumption of civilization is achieved at the cost of the loss of the environment-forming functioning by the biosphere and at the cost of the loss of the psychophysical health of a person. We can see the prospects for development of civilization through analysis of the energy-demographic history of mankind over the past 200 years. The features of fertility and mortality in the world are considered depending on the per caput energy consumption with a forecast for the future. Two limits to the growth of global energy production were formulated in terms of preventing harm to humans. Corresponding analytical dependencies are proposed. To prevent an ecological and demographic catastrophe and ensure transition of civilization to sustainable development, it is proposed to reduce the world energy production to 140*1012 kW*h/year with a decrease in per caput energy consumption to a relatively safe level of 18,000 kW*h/year*person, which existed in society in 1970. After this «step back» civilization will enter a state of relatively safe existence.


2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 9) ◽  
pp. 421-430
Author(s):  
Saheed Adekunle Akinola ◽  
Olubukola Oluranti Babalola

One of the most serious threats facing agricultural productivity in the world is unfavourable soil conditions. Several studies have shown that almost half of the world’s land-mass is affected by either natural or human-induced pollution. This, therefore, poses a threat to agricultural improvement needed to tackle the problem of a continuous increase in the world population. The emergence of soil extremophiles with plant growth-promoting trait has proven to be a reliable means to quell the threat posed by some factors limiting soil potency. Adopting these organisms as bio-inoculants will easily proffer a solution to both biotic and abiotic soil stress. As such, the natural bio-fertilisers will help to improve the quality of the soil by making it healthy enough to sustain sufficient plant growth. This review gives an overview of the multifarious importance of extremophiles on plants grown under harsh soil conditions, with the multifaceted application of omics as a means to unveil these organisms and their benefits for environmentally sustainable agricultural systems and food safety.  


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