scholarly journals Presence of Contrarian Profits in the Jordan Stock Market

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Malik R. Elhaj ◽  
Shah Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Momentum Profits ◽  
Specific Factors

Since the late 1980’s academicians have confirmed the presence of various forms of return regularities in stock returns. Two most well-known return regularities are contrarian and momentum profits. This paper – using monthly data for the period 2000 through 2016 – examines the presence of both contrarian profits and their sources in the Jordan stock market. The paper uses the methodology of Lo and MacKinlay (1990) and Jegadeesh and Titman (1995) to examine the presence of contrarian returns as well as the sources of such returns. Unlike other emerging markets where strong contrarian profits are found, Jordan market shows relatively weaker presence of contrarian profits. Moreover, time-series pattern – which is related to specific factors, is considered the main source of contrarian profits.

scholarly journals Presence and Sources of Contrarian Profits in the Bangladesh Stock Market

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-104
Author(s):  
Shah Saeed Hassan Chowdhury ◽  
Rashida Sharmin ◽  
M Arifur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Momentum Profits

This article, using weekly data for the period 2002 through 2013, investigates the presence of both contrarian and momentum profits and their sources in the Bangladesh stock market. It follows the methodology of Lo and MacKinlay ( Review of Financial Studies, 1990, 3(2), 175–205) to form portfolios with a weighted relative strength scheme (WRSS). The methodology of Jegadeesh and Titman ( Review of Financial Studies, 1995, 8(4), 973–993) is used to decompose the contrarian/momentum profits into three elements: compensation for cross-sectional risk, lead–lag effect in time series with respect to the common factor and the time-series pattern of stock returns. Results provide the evidence of significant contrarian profits for the holding period of one through eight weeks. There is a stronger presence of contrarian profits during 2002–2008 sub-period. The time-series pattern is found to be the main source of contrarian profits, suggesting that idiosyncratic (firm-specific) information is the main contributor to contrarian profits. Interestingly, the influence of idiosyncratic information on such profits has gradually decreased since 2008. Contrarian profits are robust to market sentiment and other systematic risk factors.

Predicting US recessions with stock market illiquidity

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiu-Sheng Chen ◽  
Yu-Hsi Chou ◽  
Chia-Yi Yen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Credit Spreads ◽  
Stock Market Liquidity ◽  
Predictive Content ◽  
Dynamic Link

AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the dynamic link between recessions and stock market liquidity by examining the predictive content of illiquidity for US recessions. After controlling for other commonly featured recession predictors such as term spreads and credit spreads, we find that the illiquidity measure proposed by (Amihud, Y. 2002. “Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-Section and Time-Series Effects.”

Evidence for Some Underlying Time Series Momentum

2014 ◽  
pp. 205-217
Author(s):  
Faten Zoghlami
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Momentum Strategy ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Times Series ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Main Driver ◽  
Full Rationality

The chapter documents significant and momentary momentum pattern in stock returns times series. Moreover, the chapter gives evidence that this time series momentum is the main driver of the cross-sectional momentum pattern. The temporary time series momentum pattern is midway between the behavioural and rational financial theories. Given the strong and positive autocorrelation in stock returns time series, the authors argue that investors are temporary under reacting, and they progressively find their full rationality. Using monthly returns inherent to all stocks listed on Tunisian stock market, from January 2000 to December 2009, the authors examine momentum strategy’s excess returns before and after considering time series momentum in stocks returns. Results show that momentum strategy is still profitable, but no longer puzzling. Furthermore, the chapter aims to reconcile between the behavioural and the rational financial theories, through the introduction of the progressive investors rationality.

scholarly journals State-Dependent Stock Liquidity Premium: The Case of the Warsaw Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Szymon Stereńczak
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Liquidity Premium ◽  
Stock Liquidity ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange

The effect of stock liquidity on stock returns is well documented in the developed capital markets, while similar studies on emerging markets are still scarce and their results ambiguous. This paper aims to analyze the state-dependent variance of liquidity premium in the Polish stock market. The Polish capital market may serve as a benchmark for other emerging markets in the region of Central and Eastern Europe, hence the results of this research should be of great interest for investors and policy makers in Poland and other post-communist European countries. In the empirical, study a unique empirical methodology has been applied, which guarantees the uniqueness of the results obtained. The results obtained suggest that on the Polish stock market exists stock liquidity premium, which is statistically significant, but constitutes only a small fraction of returns. It also does not increase during periods of bearish market, what results from the lengthening of average holding period when market liquidity decreases.

scholarly journals Predictive Power of Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rate on Stock Return and Volatility: A Comparison

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai Ching Poon ◽  
Gee Kok Tong
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Economic Volatility

Using monthly data from seven mature and emerging markets and a battery of GARCH and EGARCH models, the study of Davis and Kutan (2003) on inflation and output on stock returns and volatility is extended by including interest rate to compare the effect between three mature markets (US, Japan, and Singapore) and four emerging markets who experienced a crisis before (Malaysia, India, Korea, and Philippines). It is found that economic volatility, as measured by movement in inflation, output growth, and interest rate, have a weak predictor power for stock market volatility and returns. In line with the evidence reported in Davis and Kutan (2003), the findings suggest that there is no support for the Fisher effect in stock returns among the seven mature and emerging markets.   Keywords: Predictive power; output; inflation; interest rate; stock return volatility.  

scholarly journals Stock returns and liquidity risk in Chile

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Javier Vásquez-Tejos ◽  
Hernán Pape-Larre ◽  
Juan Martín Ireta-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzes the impact of liquidity risk on the return of shares in the Chilean stock market, during the period from January 2000 to July 2018. A large number of studies have focused on measuring this effect in developed markets and few in emerging markets, especially the Chilean one. To do this, we used 6 risk measures in a multiple regression model; four widely used in previous studies and two new proposed measures. We found evidence of the significance of the liquidity risk over the stock return.RESUMENEste estudio analiza el impacto del riesgo de liquidez sobre el retorno de las acciones en el mercado bursátil chileno, durante el periodo de enero de 2000 hasta julio de 2018. Gran cantidad de estudios se han centrado en medir este efecto en los mercados desarrollados y pocos en mercados emergentes, especialmente el chileno. Para ello, se utilizó un modelo de regresión múltiple 6 medidas de riesgo; cuatro utilizadas ampliamente en estudios anteriores y dos medidas nuevas propuestas. Encontramos evidencia de significancia del riesgo de liquidez sobre el retorno accionario.RESUMOEste estudo analisa o impacto do risco de liquidez no retorno das ações no mercado de ações chileno, durante o período de janeiro de 2000 a julho de 2018. Muitos estudos têm se concentrado em medir este efeito em mercados desenvolvidos e poucos nos mercados emergentes, especialmente o chileno. Para isso, utilizamos 6 medidas de risco em um modelo de regressão múltipla; quatro amplamente utilizados em estudos anteriores e duas novas medidas propostas. Encontramos evidências da significância do risco de liquidez sobre o retorno das ações.  

scholarly journals The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 233
Author(s):  
Willem Thorbecke
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Electrical Equipment ◽  
Production Equipment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Macroeconomic Environment ◽  
The U.S

The coronavirus crisis has damaged the U.S. economy. This paper uses the stock returns of 125 sectors to investigate its impact. It decomposes returns into components driven by sector-specific factors and by macroeconomic factors. Idiosyncratic factors harmed industries such as airlines, aerospace, real estate, tourism, oil, brewers, retail apparel, and funerals. There are thus large swaths of the economy whose recovery depends not on the macroeconomic environment but on controlling the pandemic. Macroeconomic factors generated losses in industries such as production equipment, machinery, and electronic and electrical equipment. Thus, reviving capital goods spending requires not just an end to the pandemic but also a macroeconomic recovery.

scholarly journals On the Efficiency of Stock Markets: A Case of Selected OPEC Member Countries

2019 ◽  
pp. 75-101
Author(s):  
Ebenezer A. Olubiyi ◽  
Peter O. Olopade
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Nonparametric Tests ◽  
Variance Ratio ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Random Walk Hypothesis ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Stock Market Efficiency ◽  
Opec Member

The study investigates the stock market efficiency of selected OPEC member countries within the context of random walk hypothesis and volatility approaches using monthly data on stock market indices from January, 2005 to April, 2016. Parametric (variance ratio: homoskedastic and heteroskedastic martingale), nonparametric (the Wright ranks and scores) tests and ARCH type estimation are performed. Results of both parametric and nonparametric tests indicate that only Qatar's stock market is weak-form efficient. The volatility results suggest that monthly stock returns of OPEC countries are volatile, with Qatar being most volatile and shocks to volatility of stock returns are asymmetric. The implications of this are that: first, investors should be conscious of these shocks when making risk-return decision of their portfolios; second, the results provide useful information to regulators to enable them develop safeguard mechanisms to shield the market from possible asymmetric information emanating from the participants.

scholarly journals DAILY VARIATION AND PREDICTING STOCK MARKET RETURNS FOR THE FRANKFURTER BÖRSE (STOCK MARKET)

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 189-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey E. Jarrett ◽  
Janne Schilling
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Daily Stock Returns

In this article we test the random walk hypothesis in the German daily stock prices by means of a unit root test and the development of an ARIMA model for prediction. The results show that the time series of daily stock returns for a stratified random sample of German firms listed on the stock exchange of Frankfurt exhibit unit roots. Also, we find that one may predict changes in the returns to these listed stocks. These time series exhibit properties which are forecast able and provide the intelligent data analysts’ methods to better predict the directive of individual stock returns for listed German firms. The results of this study, though different from most other studies of other stock markets, indicate the Frankfurt stock market behaves in similar ways to North American, other European and Asian markets previously studied in the same manner.

scholarly journals Causality Relationship between Trading Volume and Stock Return: Evidence from Nepalese Stock Market

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-28
Author(s):  
Shivaram Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Trading Model ◽  
Causality Relationship

This paper aims to empirically examine the causal relation between trading volume and stock returns for Nepalese Stock Market using Garner causality procedure, using monthly data for the period of July 2007 to February 2015. The study analyzed for the investigation of the Granger causality between trading volume and stock price using monthly data sets to ascertain if the causality runs from volume to stock price or from stock price to volume or in both directions. This study detected unidirectional causality from stock returns to trading volume that is indicative of noise trading model of return volume interaction in this market.

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