scholarly journals Predictive Analysis of Fiscal Crises with Deep Learning Time Series Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Zhou Ming Matt ◽  
Wang Man Cang
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Time Series Model ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Predictive Analysis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Fiscal Crises

Fiscal crisis can cause serious damage to the economy. Remarkably, there is limited study about when and how it occurs. With the social and economic data of more than 180 countries from 1970 to 2015, this paper constructs a fiscal crisis risk index system to explore the relationships between the crises and the indicators such as GDP growth rate, inflation rate, FDI, and foreign debt interests. Predictive analysis is performed based on the time series model of deep neural network to shed some light on policies and economic dynamics around the crises. We find that besides the inflation, fiscal crises in advanced economies are closely related to the net outflows of FDI and GDP p.c. while in developing countries the GDP growth rate and the net inflows of FDI are the key factors. Low-income developing countries are the heavy-hit targets with the net inflows of FDI, debt structure and interests as main contributors.

scholarly journals Assessing the Fiscal Sustainability of Government Finances in European Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-93
Author(s):  
Yuriy Melnykov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate

This paper analyses the fiscal sustainability of government finances in the 27 EU countries and Norway using an empirical, statistical approach and ADF tests for a unit root in the time series of the differences between the GDP growth rate and the long-term interest rate, and the primary balance.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, dan Investasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Sektor Pertanian Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
NFN Suharjon ◽  
Sri Marwanti ◽  
Heru Irianto
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Agricultural Export ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression

<p><strong>English</strong><br />Promoting agricultural sector is important for improving Indonesia economic performance. The objectives of the research are to determine the effects of levels and shocks of agricultural export, import, and investment on the growth (GDP) of the Indonesian agriculture sector. The research was conducted using quarterly time series data from 2000–2015. Vector Auto Regression analysis method was applied in this study. The causality analysis shows that the agricultural export, import, and investment levels do not significantly affect the agricultural GDP growth, but the agricultural GDP growth does significantly affect the level of agricultural export, import, and investment. The impulse response analysis shows that the investment response to GDP growth shocks is higher than that of export and import responses. The variance of decomposition analysis shows that the contribution of exports to agricultural GDP growth are larger than the contribution of imports and investments. This study concludes that the absolute value of the agricultural sector export, import, and investment do not affect the sector GDP growth rate, but the agricultural sector GDP growth rate affect the absolute value of the sector export, import, and investment in Indonesia.</p><p><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Mendorong pertumbuhan sektor pertanian Indonesia adalah penting untuk peningkatan kinerja perekonomian Indonesia. Tujuan penelitian adalah mengetahui pengaruh besaran dan goncangan (shock) ekspor, impor, dan investasi sektor pertanian terhadap pertumbuhan (GDP) sektor pertanian Indonesia. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan data time series triwulanan dari tahun 2000–2015. Penelitian menggunakan metode analisis Vector Auto Regression (VAR). Hasil analisis kausalitas menunjukkan bahwa ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian, namun pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian berpengaruh nyata terhadap ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian. Hasil analisis impulse response menunjukkan bahwa respons investasi terhadap goncangan pertumbuhan PDB lebih besar dibandingkan respons besaran ekspor dan impor, Analisis variance decomposition menunjukkan kontribusi ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan PDB lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kontribusi impor dan investasi. Hasil penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa besaran absolut ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap laju pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian, namun pertumbuhan PDB sektor pertanian berpengaruh nyata terhadap besaran ekspor, impor, dan investasi pertanian di Indonesia.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Government Size on Inflation in selected Developing Countries (2006-2014)

2018 ◽  
pp. 71-90
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

One of the serious challenges facing developing countries that are facing is the issue of inflation. Inflation creates serious challenges for economic agents as a result of the greatly damaging effects of economic and economic growth. Despite the general understanding of the concept of inflation, there is still no agreement between economists on the causes of its creation. The present study examines the impact of government size on inflation in 16 selected developing countries (Afghanistan, India, Iran, Malaysia, Mexico, Argentina, Qatar, Singapore, Kuwait, Pakistan, Uruguay, Benon, Nepal, Mali, Vietnam and Bhutan) will be tested during the period from 2006 to 2014. The pattern examined for this purpose, using the combination (panel) data in the least squared method completely, for the investigated pattern for this purpose, using generalized least squares panel data, toinvestigate the effect of each of the variables of government size, the index of import value, interest rate, Money and quasi money growth rate and GDP growth rate used on the Inflation rate. The results of this research indicate that the Money and quasi money growth rate, interest rate and growth rate of the import value index had a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate, and the GDP growth rate had a negative and significant effect on the inflation rate. Also, the main independent variable of government size model has had a negative and significant impact on inflation in the studied countries.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Informal Economy and GDP Growth: A Study on South-Asian Developing Countries

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Informal Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Asian Developing Countries

The informal economy has gained increased attention of the policy-makers and development practitioners, especially in the context of South-Asian developing countries. Though measuring the informal economy is difficult, statistics shows the rate of employment creation by the informal sector in this region is higher than the rest of the world. But the GDP growth rate in this region is still emerging in the global economic competition that indicates its effectiveness in the South-Asian region. The study was carried out to identify the relationship between the informal economy and GDP growth rate in South-Asian developing countries. The target population was economies of 8 South-Asian countries, which were also taken as the sample size. Data was collected from secondary sources and analyzed using multiple regression analysis. Results indicated that there is a significant positive relationship between the informal economy and GDP growth rate in South Asian developing countries. Therefore, it is necessary for the policy-makers and development practitioners in this region to give emphasis on the informal sector entrepreneurs to ensure constant economic growth and development.

scholarly journals Evaluating Forecasts from State-Dependent Autoregressive Models for US GDP Growth Rate. Comparison with Alternative Approaches

2021 ◽  
pp. 117-138
Author(s):  
Fabio Gobbi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Alternative Families ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Evaluating Forecasts

Abstract The aim of the paper is to compare the forecasting performance of a class of statedependent autoregressive (SDAR) models for univariate time series with two alternative families of nonlinear models, such as the SETAR and the GARCH models. The study is conducted on US GDP growth rate using quarterly data. Two methods of forecast comparison are employed. The first method consists in evaluation the average performance by using two measures such as the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) over different forecast horizons, while the second method make use of one of the most used statistical test to compare the accuracy of two forecast methods such as the Diebold-Mariano test. JEL classification numbers: C22, E37, F47. Keywords: Nonlinear models for time series, GDP growth rate, Forecasting accuracy.

scholarly journals Do Military Expenditure and Conflict Affect Economic Growth in Sri Lanka? Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Test Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Abdul Rasheed Sithy Jesmy ◽  
Mohd Zaini Abd Karim ◽  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Bounds Test

Conflicts in the form of civil war, ethnic tensions and political discord are of enduring concern and a major bottleneck to economic development in Sri Lanka. Three decades of civil war and unethical political culture have caused severe economic problems for the country, including slower rate of growth and a huge defence expenditure. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of military expenditure and conflict on per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka from 1973 to 2014 using the Solow growth model and ARDL bounds test approach. The results of the bounds test are highly significant and lead to cointegration. The negative and significant coefficients of the error correction term illustrate the expected convergence process in the long-run dynamic of per capita GDP. The estimated empirical results show that, the coefficients of military expenditure and conflict are negative and statistically significant in the short-run as well as in the long-run in determining per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka. Hence, it is critically important to take necessary action to decrease military expenditure and provide an efficient political solution to the problem of minorities, specifically in the post-war period.

Analyzing and management of health care expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 ◽  
pp. 524-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Mladenović ◽  
Miloš Milovančević ◽  
Svetlana Sokolov Mladenović ◽  
Vladislav Marjanović ◽  
Biljana Petković
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Health Care Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

scholarly journals Assessment of the ripple effects and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophic shock

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 367-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Wei Xie ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
Jieling Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Ripple Effects ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss ◽  
Development Levels

Abstract. The total losses caused by natural disasters have spatial heterogeneity due to the different economic development levels inside the disaster-hit areas. This paper uses scenarios of direct economic loss to introduce the sectors' losses caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (2008 WCE) in Beijing, utilizing the Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model and the Inter-regional ripple effect (IRRE) model. The purpose is to assess the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss at the scale of the smallest administrative divisions of China (streets, villages, and towns). The results indicate that the district of Beijing with the most severe indirect economic loss is the Chaoyang District; the finance and insurance industry (15, see Table 1) of Chaowai Street suffers the most in the Chaoyang District, which is 1.46 times that of its direct economic loss. During 2008–2014, the average annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of Beijing was decreased 3.63 % by the catastrophe. Compared with the 8 % of GDP growth rate target, the decreasing GDP growth rate is a significant and noticeable economic impact, and it can be efficiently mitigated by increasing rescue effort and by supporting the industries which are located in the seriously damaged regions.

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