scholarly journals Credit Default Risk Assessment of Local Government Debts Based on KMV Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zirong Zhuo ◽  
Jixiang Liu ◽  
Wenmin Luo
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Financial Ratio ◽  
Kmv Model ◽  
Default Rates ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Chinese Local Government

With the continuing expansion of Chinese local government debts, its credit risk issues raise the public attention. According to the overall statistics data in Chinese Statistic Bureau, there’re various scales of debts exist, undertaken by Chinese prefecture-level cities’ local government. Some of them exceed the alerting level of international line. In an effort to measure the credit default risk level of Chinese local governments, this paper makes a moderate assessment of credit default risk based on modified KMV model. In conditions of a variety of local government revenue, this model calculates the distance from default and default possibility of local government debts under different guarantee proportion. Meanwhile, this paper also explores the variation of local governments’ credit default risk when they use different financial ratio of financing for the construction of urban infrastructure. Finally, we reach the conclusion that the expected default probability shrinks as guarantee proportion raises, and increases as financing proportion raises; under a 40% of guarantee proportion, expected default rates are low with controllable risks; And within a financing proportion of 50%, chances of default as well as risks, are low.

A prediction model for the secure issuance scale of Chinese local government bonds

Kybernetes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bowen Jia ◽  
Jiaying Wu ◽  
Juan Du ◽  
Yun Ji ◽  
Lina Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Kmv Model ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
Chinese Local Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to calculate the local guaranteed fiscal revenue with the local fiscal revenue of 31 provinces, and predict their guaranteed fiscal revenue in 2018 with the artificial neural network (ANN). Design/methodology/approach The principal components analysis (PCA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and extreme learning machine (ELM) model was designed to produce the inputs of KMV model. Then the KMV model was used for obtaining the default probabilities under different issuance scales. Data were collected from Wind Database. MATLAB 2018b and SPSS 22 were used in the field of modeling and results analysis. Findings This study’s findings show that PCA–PSO–ELM proposed in this research has the highest accuracy in terms of the prediction compared with ELM, back propagation neural network and auto regression. And PCA–PSO–ELM–KMV model can calculate the secure issuance scale of local government bonds effectively. Practical implications The sustainability forecast in this study can help local governments effectively control the scale of debt issuance, strengthen the budget management of local debt and establish the corresponding risk warning mechanism, which could make local governments maintain good credit ratings. Originality/value This study sheds new light on helping local governments avoid financial risks effectively, and it is conducive to establish a debt repayment reserve system for local governments and the proper arrangement for stock debt.

scholarly journals THE EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL RATIO, LOCAL SIZE AND LOCAL STATUS ON FINANCIAL DISTRESS

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (01) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Novica Indriaty ◽  
Doddy Setiawan ◽  
Yuwita Ariessa Pravasanti
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Financial Ratio ◽  
The Status ◽  
Equity Ratio

This study is aimed to examine the effects of financial ratio empirically, local size and local status on financial distress. The status of financial distress is the condition of the inability of the local government to repay the loan principal and the loan interest. The population of this study include local governments in Indonesia that publish Report on Local Government Finances in 2008-2014. Samples were selected based on purposive sampling method and obtained 641 as research observation. With logistic regression, this study found that financial ratio included current ratio (CR), debt to equity ratio (D/E), operating revenues to total revenues ratio (OR/TR), return on assets ratio (ROA), return on equity ratio (ROE), and macro-economic variables were local size and local status have a significant effect on financial distress. Keywords : Financial Distress, Financial Ratio, Local Size, Local Status, Logistic Regression, Report on Local Government Finances

Information Construction of Chinese Local Government in the Era of Big Bata

2014 ◽  
Vol 989-994 ◽  
pp. 4957-4961
Author(s):  
Yan Hui Hua ◽  
Zhi Jian Wang ◽  
Mei Li Geng ◽  
Bang Fan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Big Data Analysis ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Information Construction ◽  
Full Analysis ◽  
Chinese Local Government ◽  
World Development

The era of big data is an inevitable trend of world development, environmental changes poses severe challenges around the local government of information construction in China. On the basis of the full analysis of the content and features of the era of big data, clarify the urgent need of the local government to further deepen the Information Construction in the era of big data, analysis the challenges for local governments of building big data era. On this basis, we propose a solution in the angle of the user, government resource integration, demand forecast and the government's responsibility.

scholarly journals Regional Financial Ratio Index and Local Government Performance Score of Regency and City Governments in Province South Sumatra

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (06) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abid Djazuli ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
City Government ◽  
Performance Score ◽  
City Governments ◽  
Financial Ratio ◽  
Research Implication ◽  
And Performance

This study aimed to test the comparison between financial ratio index and performance score of local government administration (KPPD), as well as the effect of financial ratio index on the KPPD score. Research method, the research was conducted with secondary data in the form of budget realization report from 2015-2017 in 60 regencys and cities in 5 provinces of the Southern Sumatra region, with no data available, there were only 60 regencys and cities or 169 observations. The research variables were financial ratio index and KPPD score. The analysis used quantitative analysis of different tests and regression. The results showed that the financial ratio index of the city government was higher, as well as the score of KPPD with city status that was higher than that regency government, and the financial ratio index had an effect on the KPPD score. The research implication is that the central government can use it as an alternative to award the best financial performance (city and regency). The originality of the research resulted in a financial ratio index that combines several financial ratio and it has not been used in local governments.

scholarly journals Conflict and compromise in planning decision-making: How does a Chinese local government negotiate its construction land quota with higher-level governments?

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Zhu ◽  
Weicheng Tang
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Organizational Structures ◽  
Construction Land ◽  
Passive Response ◽  
Planning Decision ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Chinese Local Government

Economic decentralization in China has intensified the tension between higher-level and local governments in policy implementation. It is a core development right for local governments in urbanizing China to have construction land quotas determined in local plans. Negotiation around this quota can reveal the hidden rules and operating mechanisms of organizational structures in the urban development field. This paper undertakes a long-term tracing of a planning process in a case study area to reveal the conflicts and bargaining processes that occur when top-down enforcement of relevant policies deviates from or even contradicts local appeals and development goals. This study found that the local governments initially adopted a passive response in order to encourage the opportunity for informal bargaining to maximize their own benefits. The outcome was that higher-level government created incentives and offered flexibility in policy implementation to compensate local government. The role of the planning group in effective information delivery and technical support accelerated consensus reaching with compromise from both higher-level and local governments.

Motivation Shortage: The Characteristics of Local Government in Environmental Protection in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 869-870 ◽  
pp. 640-643
Author(s):  
De Xiang Zhou ◽  
Zhi Yuan Hu
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Public Preferences ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Performance Evaluation Index ◽  
Chinese Local Government

Environmental problem is one of the important factors that restricting the sustainable development of economy and social in China. Chinese central government have put forward the goal of building resource-saving and environment-friendly society, but the effect of many local governments to implement the central environmental protection policy is not well. At present, Chinese local government officials utility is mainly determined by performance, economic income, honor and duties liability security. Due to the impacts of unreasonable performance evaluation index, financial distribution system, public preferences and the weakening of environmental liability constraints, the motivation of local government in environmental protection is weak.

scholarly journals Retail Credit Default Risk An Empirical Study

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-101
Author(s):  
Dr. Shubha B.N
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
Financial Factors ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Retail Credit ◽  
Loan Size

This study empirically examines the role of various socio -demographic and financial factors that determine borrowers default risk in housing loans. Using the data from the housing loan accounts (sanctioned from 1999-2010) of two public sector banks in Bangalore, the study investigates the repayment pattern of two groups of borrowers: defaulters and non-defaulters and group them into different risk level. The study uses stepwise regression to find the extent of influence of socio demographic and financial factors on default risk. The outcome of the study indicates that the association of financial variables like Net worth, Income, maturity and loan size are more significant on borrower default risk. However, one cannot ignore the sociodemographic variables like age, educational level, Number of dependents and experience in the job which otherwise may inhibit lender to properly assess credit risk in developing the internal score sheets. The outcome of the study shows that these parameters also act as default triggers.

OPTIMALISASI PERAN PEMDA DALAM MENGATASI KENDALA PELAKSANAAN KONSERVASI KEANEKARAGAMAN HAYATI DI DAERAH (STUDI KASUS PROVINSI BENGKULU)

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antung Deddy Radiansyah
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Biodiversity Conservation ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Wild Plants ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Conservation Areas ◽  
Conservation Area ◽  
Conservation Policies

Gaps in biodiversity conservation management within the Conservation Area that are the responsibility of the central government and outside the Conservation Areas or as the Essential Ecosystems Area (EEA) which are the authority of the Regional Government, have caused various spatial conflicts between wildlife /wild plants and land management activities. Several obstacles faced by the Local Government to conduct its authority to manage (EEA), caused the number and area of EEA determined by the Local Government to be still low. At present only 703,000 ha are determined from the 67 million ha indicated by EEA. This study aims to overview biodiversity conservation policies by local governments and company perceptions in implementing conservation policies and formulate strategies for optimizing the role of Local Governments. From the results of this study, there has not been found any legal umbrella for the implementation of Law number 23/ 2014 related to the conservation of important ecosystems in the regions. This regulatory vacuum leaves the local government in a dilemma for continuing various conservation programs. By using a SWOT to the internal strategic environment and external stratetegic environment of the Environment and Forestry Service, Bengkulu Province , as well as using an analysis of company perceptions of the conservation policies regulatary , this study has been formulated a “survival strategy” through collaboration between the Central Government, Local Governments and the Private Sector to optimize the role of Local Government’s to establish EEA in the regions.Keywords: Management gaps, Essential Ecosystems Area (EEA), Conservation Areas, SWOT analysis and perception analysis

Entrepreneurship Management at the Local Government Level: The Experience of the Cities for Entrepreneurs Program

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 388-407
Author(s):  
Patricio Gigli ◽  
◽  
Donatela Orsi ◽  
Marisel Martín Aramburú ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
National Level ◽  
Development Issue ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Local Government Level ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Government Level

This paper aims at describing the experience of the Cities for Entrepreneurs Program (Ciudades para Emprender or CPE) of the National Directorate of Community and Human Capital (which belongs to the SEPYME), National Ministry of Production. This paper starts from the premise that entrepreneurship takes place at the most micro level of the offer and, therefore, is a concept associated with the characteristics of the environment closest to that offer: the local territory. However, there is little history in the country of public policies relating the issue of entrepreneurship with the local management. That is why we take as a starting point the conceptualization of the chosen framework: local governments and the development issue, seen from the perspective of entrepreneurships. Moreover, an overview is given on the structural characteristics of municipalities in Argentina. In addition, some international experiences and attempts to promote entrepreneurship at a national level are analyzed. Finally, the Cities for Entrepreneurs Program (CPE) is outlined, based on a summary of the diagnoses of the Entrepreneurial Ecosystems of the selected cities and the tools used and their execution status at the time of publication of this paper.

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