FORECASTING OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT OF THE VOLGA FEDERAL DISTRICT REGIONS BY R. SOLOW�S DYNAMIC MACROECONOMIC MODEL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana Kokotkina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Regional Product

scholarly journals POPULATION INCOME DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE NORTH CAUCASIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT

Kavkaz-forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 113-123
Author(s):  
М.Р. КУЛОВА ◽  
Е.Ю. ИВАНОВА ◽  
Т.Ю. ИТАРОВА
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Significant Discrepancy ◽  
The North ◽  
Regional Product

В статье рассматриваются особенности взаимосвязи, инертность и изменчивость динамики доходов населения и показателей валового регионального продукта в субъектах Северо-Кавказского федерального округа. В условиях стагнации российской экономики в последние годы проблема роста валового регионального продукта и доходов населения в депрессивных регионах Северного Кавказа приобретает особую значимость. Проведенный авторами корреляционный анализ доходов населения и валового регионального продукта за 2000-2018 гг. методом Пирсона выявил, что, в отличие от российских регионов в целом с их достаточно сильной связью между валовым региональным продуктом и доходами населения, в регионах Северного Кавказа наблюдалось очень значительное расхождение в коэффициентах корреляции. В частности, в Северной Осетии в течение 2011-2015 гг. экономический рост и доходы населения находились в состоянии слабой зависимости, а уже в 2015-2018 гг. эта связка стала почти идеальной, когда коэффициент корреляции достиг 0,99. Резкие скачки в тесноте связей ВРП и доходов населения имели место в Дагестане, Карачаево-Черкессии, в то время как относительно стабильная динамика коэффициентов корреляции ВРП с доходами была характерна для Ингушетии. В Кабардино-Балкарии и Ставропольском крае, где были отмечены низкие и отрицательные значения коэффициентов корреляции, в динамике доходов населения и экономическим ростом проявилась либо слабая связь, либо обратная связь, когда увеличение одной переменной приводит к уменьшению другой. В целом, разнонаправленность динамики показателей валового регионального продукта и доходов населения в регионах СКФО отражает неэффективность экономической политики и необходимость более дифференцированного подхода к отдельным территориям макрорегиона. The article discusses the features of the relationship, inertia and variability of the dynamics of household income and gross regional product indicators in the subjects of the North Caucasian Federal District. In the context of the stagnation of the Russian economy in recent years, the problem of the growth of GRP and income of the population in the depressed regions of the North Caucasus is of particular importance. The authors' correlation analysis of the population's income and the gross regional product for 2000-2018 according to Pearson method revealed that, in contrast to the Russian regions as a whole with their rather strong relationship between the gross regional product and the population's income, there was a very significant discrepancy in the correlation coefficients in the regions of the North Caucasus. In particular, in North Ossetia, during 2011-2015, economic growth and income of the population were in a state of weakened mutual dependence, and already in 2015-2018, this link became almost perfect, when the correlation coefficient reached 0.99. Sharp changes in the close relationship between GRP and income of the population occurred in Dagestan, Karachay-Cherkessia, while the relatively stable dynamics of the correlation coefficients of GRP with income was characteristic of Ingushetia. In Kabardino-Balkaria and Stavropol Krai, where low and negative values of correlation coefficients were noted, the dynamics of household income and economic growth showed either a weak relationship or an inverse relationship, when an increase in one variable leads to a decrease in the other. In general, the divergence of the dynamics of the gross regional product and income indicators in the regions of the NCFD reflects the inefficiency of economic policy and the need for a more differentiated approach to individual territories of the macroregion.

Тhe impact of regional investment interaction on economic growth potential of the Russian Federation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin Pozdnyakov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Central Federal District ◽  
Regional Investment ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Regional Product

The purpose of the monography is to elaborate the concept of the development of inter-regional investment cooperation by identifying the trends and features of its impact on the economic growth potential of the macro-region. The monography consists of the introduction, three chapters, conclusion and applications, as well as a list of references. The first chapter substantiates theoretical approaches to the essence, conditions and factors of regional development and the content of interregional investment cooperation in the current socio-economic conditions, analyzes the features of institutional design and the mechanisms for regulating regional cooperation for economic growth and development purposes, taking into account the Russian and foreign experience on the example of the European Union. The second chapter, basing on the economic analysis, identifies the trends in the development of the regions of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation in terms of emerging macro-regions. A model has been proposed to assess the extent of the region’s economy’s involvement in inter-regional relations, which would allow to determine the dependence of variables such as interregional exchange, investment and gross regional product. Using mathematical modeling tools, the impact of these factors on the growth of the gross regional product of the Central Federal District of Russia, as well as its two regions — Moscow and Belgorod region — was evaluated. The third chapter identifies the prospects for the development of interregional investment cooperation in the Central Black Earth macro-region of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation. The concept of developing inter-regional investment cooperation in the macro-region within the framework of the creation of a network of territories ahead of socioeconomic development (PSEDA) has been developed. The mechanism of inter-regional investment cooperation in the framework of the creation and development of the territories ahead of socio-economic development (PSEDA) has been adapted in order to form the points of economic growth in the macro-region. The main text of the monography is laid out on 234 pages and is illustrated with 21 drawings and 40 tables. The monography contains 4 applications. The references list includes 144 units.

scholarly journals Economic growth vs. eco-efficiency of Russian industrial regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 258 ◽  
pp. 06016
Author(s):  
Daria Benz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
The Urals ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Industrial Regions ◽  
Basic Hypothesis ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Product Growth Rate

The article focuses on issues of economic growth, and eco-efficiency in Russian industrial regions on the example of the Urals Federal District. The study is based on the concept of existing tensions between economic development, and eco-efficiency. The author claims that within this concept an optimum could be found. The purpose of the study is to determine the most optimal industrial growth rate within the Urals Federal District. Industrial production representing 50% of the sectoral gross value added structure is the key factor of economic growth in the researched regions. This basic hypothesis of the study is confirmed by a relatively strong correlation between industrial growth rate and Gross Regional Product growth rate in Sverdlovsk region, Tyumen region, and Chelyabinsk region. As part of the study the author made use of correlation analysis, which confirmed the basic hypothesis of the research, and paired regression analysis, where industrial production growth rate is used as a regressor to build paired regression models. Economic growth is estimated via Gross Regional Product growth rate. For every sector, where the basic hypothesis is confirmed, there is a graphical model illustrating dependence of economic growth (E1), and eco-efficiency (E2) on industrial growth rate. The study discovers optimal industrial growth rate providing development of eco-efficiency in the researched regions. The results of the study can be applied both by scientists or government structures in strategies of regional development taking into account eco-efficiency.

scholarly journals Stimulating Domestic Demand as a Key Factor of Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-129
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova ◽  
Elena Yu. Sokolova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Social Aspect ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Right

World economy shows a high level of uncertainty. There are considerable risks of economic slowdown and stock market collapse. For many years, the Russian economy has been dependent on external factors. Recently, when anti-Russian sanctions are imposed, it is particularly important to find internal sources of growth, including domestic demand as the most significant factor. However, environment for the development of the Russian economy remains unfavourable due to high interest rates, volatile exchange rate, increasing tax rates, and ambiguous economic policy. Based on the analysis of regional statistics (including some regions of the Central Federal District), we confirmed the weak relationship between investments and gross regional product (GRP) revealed by other scientists. This may be the result of poor investment efficiency and its low multiplier effect. In this situation, the right choice of sectors with high multipliers and investment efficiency creates the potential for increasing domestic demand. Simultaneously, mechanisms for the expansion of resources ensuring regional economic growth play an important role. In this regard, we developed approaches aimed at the creation of conditions for the expansion of regional financial resources to support economic activity, domestic demand and economy in general, considering a social aspect of these processes. Some of the proposed mechanisms stimulate the participation of banks in financing economic processes, federal or regional bond issuance (the Bank of Russia would be the main buyer), etc. These proposals consider the experience of other countries in stimulating economic growth, including at the regional level. Financial regulators and relevant regional agencies can use the research results for developing economic policies.

DIGITAL PRODUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 86-92
Author(s):  
O. A. DONICHEV ◽  
◽  
S. A. GRACHEV ◽  
M. L. BYKOVA ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Mathematical Analysis ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Suggested Approach ◽  
Digital Production ◽  
Regional Product

The article is devoted to the analysis of aspects of industrial and technological development of regions in the conditions of digitalization. The purpose of the study is to try to determine the conditions and assess the economic growth of regions depending on the state of digitalization of the industrial and economic entities located in them. The research methodology is based on the use of statistical, comparative, and economic-mathematical analysis methods to establish the existing dependencies. A significant relationship has been established between the state of digitalization of the region and the growth rates of the gross regional product in them. The suggested approach can be applied by representatives of government authorities, scientists, and businesses to continue the analysis.

scholarly journals Sustainability of economic growth and digital risks in regions of Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 296 ◽  
pp. 06017
Author(s):  
Galina P. Litvintseva ◽  
Ilya N. Karelin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Development Programs ◽  
Social Sphere ◽  
Physical Volume ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Regions Of Russia

Digital transformation of society which influenced all spheres of people’s life can promote sustainability of economy, especially on the growth stage of its lifecycle. The research characterizes sustainability of economy as sustainability of economic growth in regions of Russia, which is estimated by variation ratio of growth rates of physical volume of gross regional product in 85 regions during 2011–2019. Positive connection between regional subindices of people’s quality of life and the ESG ranking of Russian regions is revealed. It was discovered that increase of people’s digital wealth positively influenced on sustainability of growth rates of gross regional product during 2015–2018. The risk of unemployment rate increase which is frequently mentioned in publications was not confirmed, namely the share of unemployed with higher education and without it as a part of relevant labor force negatively correlates with digital indices. Digitalization of social sphere and services positively influence on divorcement rate and tumor illness frequency while its decrease could result in growth of economic crimes share. However people’s digital wealth could influence on decrease of share of government and municipal servicemen in regions labor force. It is advisable to count these ambiguous processes when perfecting national and regional development programs.

scholarly journals Managing the Gross Regional Product Structure in the Territorial Subjects of the Southern Federal District

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-29
Author(s):  
V. V. Gamukin
Keyword(s):  
Regional Economy ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
Structure Index ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Impact

The condition of national economy is substantially determined by the level of economic development of certain regions in the country. Adaptive capability of separate regional economy of external and internal risk damping depends on features of its structure which forms inertially under the impact of managerial influence from the authorities depending on three main managerial objectives of forming the structure of regional economy: bringing the structure of regional economy to a uniform state, individualization of this structure or strategy assuming integration of regions with the differing structure to macroregions. In the article the hypothesis of the assessment possibility of managerial impact by means of the indicators characterizing rapprochement or a discrepancy of the gross regional product (GRP) structure within one federal district is considered. The research of the structure of the given indicator at the subjects of the Southern Federal District for the period 2005–2015 is conducted using an index method, including calculation of the Szalai index and the index of structure offered by the author. It did not reveal a significant effect on change of the structure of GRP subjects in the analysed period. It provides with the possibility to speak about weakness or lack of purposeful managerial impact on this indicator from the district level of the power. In the federal district obvious tendencies to more balanced participation of regions in creation of total amount of GRP are not revealed. Due to the universality and high sensitivity of the received results, the formulated algorithm of calculation of the structure index, is acceptable for convergence determination of the structure of regional economies on the basis of the GRP structure indicator and can be applied in other federal districts of Russia. 

Placement of forces in the economic space of the Russian Far East: The state and trends

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-245
Author(s):  
Tat'yana M. POZDNYAKOVA
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Russian Far East ◽  
Far East ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Economic Space ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Far Eastern ◽  
The Russian Far East

Subject. This article deals with the issues related to the economic advancement of the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The article aims to identify trends in the economic advancement of the subjects of the District on the basis of changes in gross regional product and analysis of the investment component. Methods. For the study, I analyzed the Russian Federal State Statistics Service data. Results. The article classifies the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District by volume and dynamics of gross regional product for 2001–2017. It identifies possible changes in the economic situation of the Far Eastern Federal District entities, taking into account the calculated investment ratio. Conclusions and Relevance. The volume of investments has a significant impact on the production of the gross regional product of the Russian Federation. Therefore, there may be changes in the placement of forces in the economic space of the Russian Far East. The results of the study can be taken into account to develop and adjust State programmes and development strategies of the Russian Far East.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF FACTORS OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rezeda M. Kundakchyan ◽  
Tina M. Vakhitova ◽  
Landysh A. Gadelshina ◽  
Liliya F. Garifova ◽  
Liliya F. Zulfakarova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Qualitative Change ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Economic Interpretation ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Investment Resource ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product

The problem of economic growth has always been central to the discussions not only of professional economists, but also of politicians and public figures. This issue is of particular urgency for Russia in the period of geopolitical turbulence, which is strengthened by the tendencies of protectionism in international trade. In addition, there is a different dynamics of economic growth, its quality, both in the sectoral and regional sections. In this regard, the analysis of the influence of the main factors contributing to economic growth, qualitative change in the structure of gross domestic product (GDP), gross regional product (GRP), has a significant applied value. Priorities of innovative quality of growth that require large-scale investments are stated in Strategy-2020 and in “Strategy of Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Tatarstan until 2030”.Without assessing the role of the investment resource, it is impossible to determine the strategies for the country's social and economic development, to develop and implement general state, sectoral and regional programs. One approach that makes it possible to quantify the degree of influence of such key factors of economic growth as investments and incomes of the population, including the average monthly wage, is based on the use of econometric models and economic interpretation of the coefficients of the models obtained

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