scholarly journals УТИЦАЈ КЛИМАТСКИХ ПРОМЈЕНА НА ПРОИЗВОДЊУ КУКУРУЗА У СЛОВАЧКОЈ И ЊЕНA ПРОЈЕКЦИЈА ДО 2100. ГОДИНЕ

HERALD ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (22) ◽  
Author(s):  
Матеј Жилински ◽  
Слободан Гњато ◽  
Бернард Шишка
Keyword(s):  
Ipcc Sres

У раду се тематизује моделовање приноса култура и временских услова под утицајем климатскихпромјена. Aнализира се однос између агроекосистема и климе са фокусом на производњу зрна кукуруза (Zeamays L.). Помоћу модела Daisy симулирани су ефекти климатских промјена, према IPCC SRES A1B сценарију, напотенцијал приноса кукуруза у најпродуктивнијим пољопривредним регионима Словачке − Нитри и Милхостову.Пројекције приноса базиране су на GCM ARPEGE подацима добијеним за периоде 2021−20150. и 2071−2100.године. Резултати симулација потом су упоређени са производњом по хектару у периоду 1961−1990. године.

Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan

2012 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Wang ◽  
Yong He ◽  
Budong Qian ◽  
Brian McConkey ◽  
Herb Cutforth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Short Communication ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Communication Climate ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Wang, H., He, Y., Qian, B., McConkey, B., Cutforth, H., McCaig, T., McLeod, G., Zentner, R., DePauw, R., Lemke, R., Brandt, K., Liu, T., Qin, X., White, J., Hunt, T. and Hoogenboom, G. 2012. Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan. Can. J. Plant Sci. 92: 421–425. This study assessed potential impacts of climate change on wheat production as a biofuel crop in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios (CGCM3 with the forcing scenarios of IPCC SRES A1B, A2 and B1) in the 2050s. Synthetic 300-yr weather data were generated by the AAFC stochastic weather generator for the baseline period (1961–1990) and each scenario. Compared with the baseline, precipitation is projected to increase in every month under all three scenarios except in July and August and in June for A2, when it is projected to decrease. Annual mean air temperature is projected to increase by 3.2, 3.6 and 2.7°C for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. The model predicted increases in biomass by 28, 12 and 16% without the direct effect of CO2 and 74, 55 and 41% with combined effects (climate and CO2) for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. Similar increases were found for grain yield. However, the occurrence of heat shock (>32°C) will increase during grain filling under the projected climate conditions and could cause severe yield reduction, which was not simulated by DSSAT-CSM. This implies that the future yield under climate scenarios might have been overestimated by DSSAT-CSM; therefore, model modification is required. Several measures, such as early seeding, must be taken to avoid heat damages and take the advantage of projected increases in temperature and precipitation in the early season.

scholarly journals Copper Demand and Supply Simulation in 21st Century Based on the IPCC SRES Scenarios

2004 ◽  
Vol 120 (12) ◽  
pp. 681-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koji TOKIMATSU ◽  
Toshihide ITO ◽  
Takayoshi SHINKUMA ◽  
Kazuhiko FURUKAWA ◽  
Toshisuke OGIWARA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Sres Scenarios ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Ipcc Sres Scenarios

scholarly journals Climate change impact on water resource extremes in a headwater region of the Tarim basin in China

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 3511-3527 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Liu ◽  
P. Willems ◽  
X. L. Pan ◽  
An. M. Bao ◽  
X. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Snow Melting ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. The Tarim river basin in China is a huge inland arid basin, which is expected to be highly vulnerable to climatic changes, given that most water resources originate from the upper mountainous headwater regions. This paper focuses on one of these headwaters: the Kaidu river subbasin. The climate change impact on the surface and ground water resources of that basin and more specifically on the hydrological extremes were studied by using both lumped and spatially distributed hydrological models, after simulation of the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas scenarios till the 2050s. The models include processes of snow and glacier melting. The climate change signals were extracted from the grid-based results of general circulation models (GCMs) and applied on the station-based, observed historical data using a perturbation approach. For precipitation, the time series perturbation involves both a wet-day frequency perturbation and a quantile perturbation to the wet-day rainfall intensities. For temperature and potential evapotranspiration, the climate change signals only involve quantile based changes. The perturbed series were input into the hydrological models and the impacts on the surface and ground water resources studied. The range of impact results (after considering 36 GCM runs) were summarized in high, mean, and low results. It was found that due to increasing precipitation in winter, snow accumulation increases in the upper mountainous areas. Due to temperature rise, snow melting rates increase and the snow melting periods are pushed forward in time. Although the qualitive impact results are highly consistent among the different GCM runs considered, the precise quantitative impact results varied significantly depending on the GCM run and the hydrological model.

scholarly journals Calibration of glacier volume–area relations from surface extent fluctuations and application to future glacier change

2010 ◽  
Vol 56 (195) ◽  
pp. 33-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Möller ◽  
Christoph Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Surface Area ◽  
Glacier Change ◽  
Initial Surface ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Chilean Patagonia ◽  
Sres Scenarios ◽  
Ipcc Sres

AbstractThe volume- and area-change evolution of glaciers can be obtained by employing the volume–area scaling approach during mass-balance modelling. This method usually requires information on the initial surface area and ice volume to adjust the volume–area relation to the specific ice body. However, absolute volumetric data on glaciers are very rare, so the applicability of volume–area scaling is limited. In order to use volume–area scaling on glaciers for which only limited information is available, a new method is presented to calibrate the volume–area relation without prior knowledge of this relation by using glacier extent information from different times. To validate the method and illustrate its practicability, we model the range of probable future changes in ice volume and surface area of ‘Glaciar Noroeste’, an outlet glacier of Gran Campo Nevado ice cap, southern Chilean Patagonia, during the 21st century, based on IPCC SRES scenarios B1 and A2.

scholarly journals Warm temperatures, cool sponges: the effect of increased temperatures on the Antarctic sponge Isodictya sp.

PeerJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e8088 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo González-Aravena ◽  
Nathan J. Kenny ◽  
Magdalena Osorio ◽  
Alejandro Font ◽  
Ana Riesgo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Stress ◽  
De Novo ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Molecular Response ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sres Scenarios ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
The Antarctic

Although the cellular and molecular responses to exposure to relatively high temperatures (acute thermal stress or heat shock) have been studied previously, only sparse empirical evidence of how it affects cold-water species is available. As climate change becomes more pronounced in areas such as the Western Antarctic Peninsula, both long-term and occasional acute temperature rises will impact species found there, and it has become crucial to understand the capacity of these species to respond to such thermal stress. Here, we use the Antarctic sponge Isodictya sp. to investigate how sessile organisms (particularly Porifera) can adjust to acute short-term heat stress, by exposing this species to 3 and 5 °C for 4 h, corresponding to predicted temperatures under high-end 2080 IPCC-SRES scenarios. Assembling a de novo reference transcriptome (90,188 contigs, >93.7% metazoan BUSCO genes) we have begun to discern the molecular response employed by Isodictya to adjust to heat exposure. Our initial analyses suggest that TGF-β, ubiquitin and hedgehog cascades are involved, alongside other genes. However, the degree and type of response changed little from 3 to 5 °C in the time frame examined, suggesting that even moderate rises in temperature could cause stress at the limits of this organism’s capacity. Given the importance of sponges to Antarctic ecosystems, our findings are vital for discerning the consequences of short-term increases in Antarctic ocean temperature on these and other species.

scholarly journals Tracking cyclones in regional model data: the future of Mediterranean storms

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 13-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Muskulus ◽  
D. Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
International Panel ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. With the advent of regional climate modelling, there are high-resolution data available for regional climatological change studies. Automatic tracking of cyclones in these datasets encounters problems with high spatial resolution due to cyclone substructure. Watershed segmentation, a technique from image analysis, has been used to obtain estimates for the spatial extent of cyclones, enabling better tracking and precipitation analysis. In this study we have used data from a 0.5° Regional Model (REMO) climatological model run for the period from 1961-2099, following the International Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) B2 forcing. The resulting hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields have been analysed for cyclone numbers and tracks in the Mediterranean region. According to the results, the total number of cyclones in the Mediterranean seems to be increasing in the future, in spite of a general decrease of the numbers of stronger systems. In Summer, the increase in each gridbox seems to be proportional to the total number of cyclones in that box, whereas in Winter there is a slight proportional decrease. As concerns track properties and precipitation estimates along tracks, no significant change could be detected.

scholarly journals Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCC SRES scenarios

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (16) ◽  
pp. 14-1-14-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Schaeffer ◽  
F. M. Selten ◽  
J. D. Opsteegh ◽  
H. Goosse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Sres Scenarios ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Ipcc Sres Scenarios

scholarly journals Declining ozone exposure of European vegetation under climate change and reduced precursor emissions

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 5269-5283 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Klingberg ◽  
M. Engardt ◽  
P. E. Karlsson ◽  
J. Langner ◽  
H. Pleijel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Ozone Exposure ◽  
Critical Levels ◽  
Eu Directive ◽  
Model Match ◽  
The Future ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. The impacts of changes in ozone precursor emissions as well as climate change on the future ozone exposure of the vegetation in Europe were investigated. The ozone exposure is expressed as AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppb O3) as well as PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a threshold Y). A new method is suggested to express how the length of the period during the year when coniferous and evergreen trees are sensitive to ozone might be affected by climate change. Ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were combined with climate simulations based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario and used as input to the Eulerian Chemistry Transport Model MATCH from which projections of ozone concentrations were derived. The ozone exposure of vegetation over Europe expressed as AOT40 was projected to be substantially reduced between the periods 1990–2009 and 2040–2059 to levels which are well below critical levels used for vegetation in the EU directive 2008/50/EC as well as for crops and forests used in the LRTAP convention, despite that the future climate resulted in prolonged yearly ozone sensitive periods. The reduction in AOT40 was mainly driven by the emission reductions, not changes in the climate. For the toxicologically more relevant POD1 index the projected reductions were smaller, but still significant. The values for POD1 for the time period 2040–2059 were not projected to decrease to levels which are below critical levels for forest trees, represented by Norway spruce. This study shows that substantial reductions of ozone precursor emissions have the potential to strongly reduce the future risk for ozone effects on the European vegetation, even if concurrent climate change promotes ozone formation.

Potential natural vegetation dynamics driven by future long-term climate change and its hydrological impacts in the Hanjiang River basin, China

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 73-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Yuan ◽  
Liliang Ren ◽  
Zhongbo Yu ◽  
Yonghua Zhu ◽  
Jing Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Natural Vegetation ◽  
Potential Natural Vegetation ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Hanjiang River ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Vegetation and land-surface hydrology are intrinsically linked under long-term climate change. This paper aims to evaluate the dynamics of potential natural vegetation arising from 21st century climate change and its possible impact on the water budget of the Hanjiang River basin in China. Based on predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A1 scenario from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) regional climate model, changes in plant functional types (PFTs) and leaf area index (LAI) were simulated via the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model. Subsequently, predicted PFTs and LAIs were employed in the Xinanjiang vegetation-hydrology model for rainfall–runoff simulations. Results reveal that future long-term changes in precipitation, air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration would remarkably affect the spatiotemporal distribution of PFTs and LAIs. These climate-driven vegetation changes would further influence regional water balance. With the decrease in forest cover in the 21st century, plant transpiration and evaporative loss of intercepted canopy water will tend to fall while soil evaporation may rise considerably. As a result, total evapotranspiration may increase moderately with a slight increase in annual runoff depth. This indicates that, for long-term hydrological prediction, climate-induced changes in terrestrial vegetation cannot be neglected as the terrestrial biosphere plays an important role in land-surface hydrological responses.

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