scholarly journals Nowcasting commodity prices using social media

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. e126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaewoo Kim ◽  
Meeyoung Cha ◽  
Jong Gun Lee

Gathering up-to-date information on food prices is critical in developing regions, as it allows policymakers and development practitioners to rely on accurate data on food security. This study explores the feasibility of utilizing social media as a new data source for predicting food security landscape in developing countries. Through a case study of Indonesia, we developed a nowcast model that monitors mentions of food prices on Twitter and forecasts daily price fluctuations of four major food commodities: beef, chicken, onion, and chilli. A longitudinal test over 15 months of data demonstrates that not only that the proposed model accurately predicts food prices, but it is also resilient to data scarcity. The high accuracy of the nowcast model is attributed to the observed trend that the volume of tweets mentioning food prices tends to increase on days when food prices change sharply. We discuss factors that affect the veracity of price quotations such as social network-wide sensitivity and user influence.

2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 226-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Desmond U. Patton ◽  
Ninive Sanchez ◽  
Dale Fitch ◽  
Jamie Macbeth ◽  
Patrick Leonard

Trauma-based interventions are common in mental health practice, and yet there is a gap in services because social media has created new ways of managing trauma. Practitioners identify treatments for traumatic experiences and are trained to implement evidence-based practices, but there is limited research that uses social media as a data source. We use a case study to explore over 400 Twitter communications of a gang member in Chicago’s Southside, Gakirah Barnes, who mourned the death of her friend on Twitter. We further explore how, following her own death, members of her Twitter network mourn her. We describe expressions of trauma that are difficult to uncover in traditional trauma-based services. We discuss practice and research implications regarding using Twitter to address trauma among gang-involved youth.


Author(s):  
Y. D. Wang ◽  
T. Wang ◽  
X. Y. Ye ◽  
J. Q. Zhu ◽  
J. Lee

Social media have become a universal phenomenon in our society (Wang et al., 2012). As a new data source, social media have been widely used in knowledge discovery in fields related to health (Jackson et al., 2014), human behaviour (Lee, 2014), social influence (Hong, 2013), and market analysis (Hanna et al., 2011). <br><br> In this paper, we report a case study of the 2012 Beijing Rainstorm to investigate how emergency information was timely distributed using social media during emergency events. We present a classification and location model for social media text streams during emergency events. This model classifies social media text streams based on their topical contents. Integrated with a trend analysis, we show how Sina-Weibo fluctuated during emergency events. Using a spatial statistical analysis method, we found that the distribution patterns of Sina-Weibo were related to the emergency events but varied among different topics. This study helps us to better understand emergency events so that decision-makers can act on emergencies in a timely manner. In addition, this paper presents the tools, methods, and models developed in this study that can be used to work with text streams from social media in the context of disaster management.


SAWERIGADING ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Muhammad Darwis ◽  
Kamsinah Kamsinah

AbstrakThe aim of this research is: (1) to identify the forms and categories of Indonesian words that are absorbed into Buginese sentences and (2) to reveal the reasons for the use of Indonesian elements into Buginese sentences by Facebookers in the social media. Data on this qualitative research obtained from social media ‘Facebook’. The data source of this research is the Facebookers who are members of the MABBASA UUGIE KU PESBU’ group, November 2013 to April 2014 edition. Data analyzed are Buginese sentences consisting of three to five examples of Buginese sentences containing Indonesian elements in the form of words, phrases or clauses taken purposively. Furthermore, the analysis was carried out with grounded research strategies. The results of this research indicate that (1) Buginese language can survive as a means of communication within Buginese ethnic groups when writing on the social media ‘Facebook’, due to they have obtained vocabulary contributions from Indonesian in the form of the basic word, affixation word, and phrase. In word categorization, the loan words consist of nouns, verbs, adjectives, and conjunctions. Then, (2) the use of the Indonesian language elements has four main reasons, namely (a) filling in the blanks, (b) adding equivalence variations, (c) clarifying the meaning, and (d) interference. Reasons (a) to (c) can take the form of code-mixing and code-switching. AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan: (1) mengidentifikasi bentuk dan kategori kata bahasa Indonesia (bI) yang  terserap ke dalam kalimat-kalimat bahasa Bugis (bB) dan (2) mengungkap alasan-alasan penggunaan unsur-unsur bI tersebut ke dalam kalimat bB oleh para Facebooker di media sosial. Data penelitian kualitatif ini diperoleh dari media sosial Facebook. Sumber data penelitian ini ialah para Facebooker yang menjadi anggota grup MABBASA UUGIE KU PESBU’ edisi bulan November 2013 s.d. bulan April 2014. Data yang dianalisis ialah kalimat-kalimat ber-bB yang terdiri atas tiga sampai lima contoh kalimat ber-bB yang berisi unsur-unsur bI, yang berupa kata, frasa, atau klausa, yang diambil secara purposif. Selanjutnya, analisis dilakukan dengan upaya grounded research. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa (1) bB dapat bertahan hidup sebagai sarana perhubungan intern suku Bugis dalam komunikasi tulisan sosial Facebook karena memperoleh sumbangan kosakata bI yang berbentuk kata dasar, kata berimbuhan, dan frasa atau ungkapan. Dari segi kategorisasi kata, unsur-unsur serapan tersebut terdiri atas kata benda, kata kerja, kata sifat, dan kata sambung. Kemudian, (2) penggunaan unsur-unsur bI tersebut memiliki empat alasan utama, yaitu (a) mengisi kekosongan, (b) menambah variasi kesepadanan, (c) memperjelas pemaknaan, dan (d) interferensi. Alasan (a) sampai dengan (c) dapat mengambil bentuk campur kode dan alih kode.   


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 1253-1272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bissan Audeh ◽  
François-Elie Calvier ◽  
Florelle Bellet ◽  
Marie-Noëlle Beyens ◽  
Antoine Pariente ◽  
...  

The aim of this study is to analyze drug mentions in web forums to evaluate the utility of this data source for drug post-marketing studies. We automatically annotated over 60 million posts extracted from 21 French web forums. Drug mentions detected in this corpus were matched to drug names in a French drug database (Theriaque®). Our analysis showed that a high proportion of the most frequent drug mentions in the selected web forums correspond to drugs that are usually prescribed to young women, such as combined oral contraceptives. The most mentioned drugs in our corpus correlated weakly to the most prescribed drugs in France but seemed to be influenced by events widely reported in traditional media. In this article, we conclude that web forums have high potential for post-marketing drug-related studies, such as pharmacovigilance, and observation of drug utilization. However, the bias related to forum selection and the corresponding population representativeness should always be taken into account.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 231
Author(s):  
Intan Yulia Saragih ◽  
Gde Indra Bhaskara

This research is based on widespread use of social media as an image for all people and as well as provides benefits for a company. The large number of social media users makes an American travel site provides reviews about travel related content and this includes reviews of restaurants. Hence, this study discusses the case study of TripaAdvisor's review of the five best restaurants in Bali. With various forms of benefits regarding the benefits of information from TripAdvisor, online reviews from consumers in promoting restaurants and consumer reviews in enhancing the image of a restaurant. The research method used is content analysis method to review from five restaurants, the variables were the value of Food, Service, Value and Atmosphere from these five restaurants and ranked five restaurants through an assessment of consumer reviews on TripAdvisor. The data source is through primary data and secondary data, namely through TripAdvisor. The description of this research is to look at every consumer online review on TripAdvisor, by choosing five of the best TripAdvisor restaurants in Bali and taking 50 consumer reviews from the top five TripAdvisor restaurants in Bali to see the benefits of these consumer reviews in promoting and improving the image of these five restaurants. The results of this study indicate that TripAdvisor is very useful in providing information to restaurants and with consumer reviews can be a tool for restaurant's promotion and able to enhance the image of a restaurant. Keywords : TripAdvisor, Consumer reviews, Restaurants, Bali


2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 281-298
Author(s):  
U Arabi

The rapid rise in food prices has been a burden on the poor in developing countries, including in India, who spend roughly half of their household incomes on food. In many countries and regions, food price inflation is higher than aggregate inflation and contributing to underlying inflationary pressures. Food grain prices have more than doubled between January 2006 and June 2008. More than 60 percent of this increase has occurred since January 2008 alone. Although the pass-through of rising global prices does not translate into an immediate and proportionate rise in domestic price levels, due to various factors such as a weakening dollar, domestic infrastructure, and price stabilization policies; increased food price volatility is expected even to continue for the presumable future and there is also possibility of further long run uncertainty due to climate change. With domestic prices rising, private consumption takes a plunge. Expectedly, global food price increases translate to higher prices in developing Asia, including in India particularly since food carries a large weight in the CPI of many of the region’s economies. In fact a number of factors have contributed to the rise in food prices in general; but the increase in energy prices and the related increases in prices of fertilizer and chemicals, which are either produced from energy or are heavy users of energy in their production process etc. are crucial. This has increased the cost of production, which ultimately gets reflected in higher food prices. Higher energy prices have also increased the cost of transportation, and increased the incentive to produce biofuels and encouraged policy support for bio-fuels production. The increase in bio fuels production has not only increased demand for food commodities, but also led to large land use changes which reduced supplies of wheat and crops that compete with food commodities used for biofuels in countries like India. Against these backdrops, this paper focus on the movements in global food price trends and its impact on management of food supply and security, the factors responsible for the rise in food prices in India and its impact on the issue of food security and sustainability of management of food economy of India. The paper concludes that in the short to medium run, the importance of safety nets to secure food for the needy is very much needed and in the long run, the notion of food security should move beyond a relatively static focus on food availability and access to one of higher productivity. Thus, as the majority of the poor in developing India live in rural areas and depend on agriculture, higher agricultural growth will provide food security by increasing supply, reducing prices, and raising incomes of poorer farm households in the near future


2021 ◽  
Vol volume 05 (issue 2) ◽  
pp. 73-85
Author(s):  
Abdul Rehman Qaisar ◽  
Zowaina Azhar ◽  
Faiza Bajwa

Present study comprised of Ante Meridiem (AM) vs Post Meridiem (PM) intermedia agenda-setting between newspapers’ websites and twitter. Data regarding Turkish President’s visit to Pakistan has been collected from website of “The Nation” and “Twitter”. Study found significant synchronous correlation (X2Y2) between Twitter and The Nation during Post Meridian (PM) (r1= +0.472, r2= +0.841 and r3= +0.752). Reduced posting on Twitter and newspaper’ websites has been observed during AM time period. Finding depicts gradual content build-up (simultaneous basis) on Twitter and news websites during the PM time period. Finding indicates increasing integration between social media and news-websites due to synchronization. Vast majority of Twitter posts are based on clippings of newspapers stories or footages from news channels. In Pakistan tweets of politician, military representatives, and media persons are flashed as breaking news and the same is given coverage prominently on news-websites. The study has also observed consistent use of social media cells by political parties for pushing agendas on social media to get attention on other media outlets. Circular model for network journalism and simultaneous agenda setting has been proposed. Model elaborates how contents move in a circular way in network journalism environment.


2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 227
Author(s):  
Aparna Nayak

Global food security is one of the most unrelenting issues for humanity, and agricultural production is not sufficient in accomplishing this. However, earlier analyses of agricultural food production barely ever bring out the contrasts associated with economic development and different climatic zones. The world population is increasing day by day and climate change will be causing more extreme weather, higher temperatures and changed precipitation. The crop contributes about 20 % of the total dietary calories and proteins globally. There is 1% annual growth in food demand in the developing regions. The developing regions (including China and Central Asia) account for roughly 53 % of the total harvested area and 50 % of the production. Although, unmatched productivity growth from the Green Revolution since the 1960s dramatically transformed world food production, benefitting both producers and consumers through low production costs and low food prices. One of the key challenges today is to replace today’s food system with new ones for better sustainability. While the Green Revolution freed essential ecosystems from conversion to agriculture, it also created its own ecological problems. Moreover productivity increase is now slow or stagnant. Attaining the productivity gains needed to ensure food security will therefore require more than a repeat performance of the Green Revolution of the past. Future demand will need to be achieved through sustainable intensification that combines better crop resistance plants, adaptation to warmer climates, and less use of water, fuel, fertilizer, and labor. Meeting these challenges will require concerted efforts in research and innovation to develop and set up feasible solutions. Necessary investment will be required to realize sustainable productivity growth through better technologies and policy and institutional innovations that facilitate farmer adoption and adaptation. The persistent lessons from the Green Revolution and the recent efforts for sustainable escalation of food systems in South Asia and other developing nations will definitely providing useful insights for the future.


2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 637
Author(s):  
Rosiana Puspitasari

<p>This study analyses defamation via social media towards Flaurence Saulina Sihombing case. The study raises the elements of contempt in Law Number 11 of 2008 which was converted into Law Number 19 of 2016 con Electronic Information and Transactions (EIT) and compare it with the humiliation under the Criminal Code. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the prosecution on Florence Saulina Sihombing meet the elements of contempt in accordance with the prohibited stipulation under Article 27 paragraph (3) Electronic Information and Transactions Law. This research using normative juridical approach. The source of the data is secondary data source that the data obtained from the literature by studying three legal materials, namely: primary legal materials, secondary legal materials, tertiary legal materials that will be classified and systematized. The conclusion shows that the case Flaurence Saulina Sihombing meet a subjective element in the form of intentionally actions. This actions undertaken by Florence met the element strike action. The object in the form of honour based on Article 27 Law Number 11 of 2008 which was converted into Law Number 19 of 2016 on Electronic Information and Transactions (EIT). The writer tends to confirmly agree with the Yogyakarta District Court via Decision Number 382/Pid.B/2014/PN Yyk of 2015.</p>


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 195-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karel Janda ◽  
Ladislav Krištoufek

We review the fuel-food price linkage model—time-series, structural, and general or partial equilibrium models, with most attention devoted to the time-series literature. Our assessment is nested in both the discussion of general commodity prices comovement and the prediction of the most likely development of biofuel policies and production. We show that the introduction of significant biofuels policies around 2005 increased the price transmission between fossil fuels and food commodities, illustrating the intuitively expected leading role of fuel prices over food prices. Particular price linkages dynamically evolve over time, depending on the particular market under consideration. The econometric results show that owing to policy-induced trade barriers, there is no evidence of a sufficiently integrated international biofuels market with the US, European, and Brazilian markets and that biofuel policies in these countries follow separate paths.


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