scholarly journals Sensitivity analysis of the infection transmissibility in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e10992
Author(s):  
Pardis Biglarbeigi ◽  
Kok Yew Ng ◽  
Dewar Finlay ◽  
Raymond Bond ◽  
Min Jing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Occupational Groups ◽  
The Social ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Special Circumstances ◽  
Local Reproduction

The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak started in December 2019 and rapidly spread around the world affecting millions of people. With the growth of infection rate, many countries adopted different policies to control the spread of the disease. The UK implemented strict rules instructing individuals to stay at home except in some special circumstances starting from 23 March 2020. Accordingly, this study focuses on sensitivity analysis of transmissibility of the infection as the effects of removing restrictions, for example by returning different occupational groups to their normal working environment and its effect on the reproduction number in the UK. For this reason, available social contact matrices are adopted for the population of UK to account for the average number of contacts. Different scenarios are then considered to analyse the variability of total contacts on the reproduction number in the UK as a whole and each of its four nations. Our data-driven retrospective analysis shows that if more than 38.5% of UK working-age population return to their normal working environment, the reproduction number in the UK is expected to be higher than 1. However, analysis of each nation, separately, shows that local reproduction number in each nation may be different and requires more adequate analysis. Accordingly, we believe that using statistical methods and historical data can provide good estimation of local transmissibility and reproduction number in any region. As a consequence of this analysis, efforts to reduce the restrictions should be implemented locally via different control policies. It is important that these policies consider the social contacts, population density, and the occupational groups that are specific to each region.

scholarly journals The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trystan Leng ◽  
Connor White ◽  
Joe Hilton ◽  
Adam Kucharski ◽  
Lorenzo Pellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Base Case Scenario ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemic Risk

AbstractBackgroundDuring the Covid-19 lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study.MethodsWe used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, that is stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate a number of strategies including variations of social bubbles, i.e. the forming of exclusive pairs of households, for particular subsets of households (households including children and single occupancy households), as well as for all households. We test the sensitivity of the results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters.ResultsClustering contacts outside the household into exclusive social bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting some of the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case scenario social bubbles reduced cases and fatalities by 17% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to 1.1 and therefore beyond the epidemic threshold of one. However, strategies that allow households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles only increased the reproduction number by less than 10%. The corresponding increase in morbidity and mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is largely focussed in older adults independently of whether these are included in the social bubbles.ConclusionsSocial bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household limiting the increase in epidemic risk, if managed appropriately.

scholarly journals Inpatient Institutional Care: The Forced Social Environment

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma C. Joyes ◽  
Melanie Jordan ◽  
Gary Winship ◽  
Paul Crawford
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Social Environment ◽  
Social Connectedness ◽  
Physical Violence ◽  
Institutional Care ◽  
Mental Healthcare ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Clinical Expertise ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Uk

The landscape of mental health recovery is changing; there have been calls for a shift from the clinical expertise being the dominant voice within mental healthcare towards a more personalised and collaborative service that supports those in need of mental healthcare to define what recovery is for the individual. Within this new recovery movement, there has been a recognition of the importance of the social environment in which individuals are situated and the relationship of this to mental health and wellbeing. Included in this is the importance of an individual’s role within society and the ways in which knowledge, such as experts by experience, can hold an important value. The argument then, is that social connectedness forms part of the recovery journey and that relationships can help us develop or re-connect with who we are in powerful ways. Such a view has only been strengthened by the recent and ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic. Within the UK, discussions of the importance of our wellbeing have become commonplace within the context of restricted social contact. With this heightened awareness of how the social contributes to wellbeing, it is important to consider the environments in which those in receipt of mental healthcare are situated. One of which is institutionalised care, where it is commonplace to restrict social contact. For example, by virtue of being within a locked environment, individuals’ freedom of movement is often non-existent and thus contacts with those not residing or working within the institution is restricted. While such restrictions may be deemed necessary to protect the individual’s mental health, such environments can be unintentionally toxic. Data are presented from an ethnography that was conducted within an inpatient forensic mental health hospital in the UK to highlight the problematic social environment which some individuals experience. Key interpersonal issues are presented, such as, trust, racism, the threat of physical violence and bullying that was experienced by staff and residents at the hospital. Consideration is given to the coping strategies enacted by residents and the pathologising of such behaviour. The consequences on interpersonal wellbeing are explored.

scholarly journals Effect of Lockdown and Isolation to Suppress the COVID-19 in Bangladesh: An Epidemic Compartments Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Shahidul Islam ◽  
Jannatun Irana Ira ◽  
K. M. Ariful Kabir ◽  
Md. Kamrujjaman
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 analytical epidemic framework that combines with isolation and lockdown effect by incorporating five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. The extensive numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensures the social and economic stability.

scholarly journals Socioeconomic differences in paid sickness allowances in Finland

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Blomgren ◽  
S Jäppinen ◽  
J Pekkala ◽  
O Rahkonen
Keyword(s):  
Sickness Absence ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Socioeconomic Differences ◽  
Occupational Class ◽  
Occupational Groups ◽  
Socioeconomic Groups ◽  
Lower Socioeconomic ◽  
The Social ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Opposite Manner

Abstract Background Receipt of sickness allowance (SA), which in the Finnish benefit system functions as compensation for loss of income due to over 10-days-long sickness absence, is more prevalent in lower socioeconomic groups. As SA is an earnings-related benefit and higher occupational classes have on average higher previous income, their share of SA expenditure must be higher than their share of SA days would suggest. However, the allocation of SA costs to different socioeconomic groups is not known. The aim of this study was to compare occupational classes in terms of their shares of total paid SA days and SA benefit costs. Methods We used register data covering the total working-age (16-64) employed population of Finland at the end of 2016 (N = 2.2 million), with linked data on paid sickness allowances during 2017. Yearly accumulated sickness allowance days and allowance costs, paid by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland, were calculated for upper and lower non-manual employees, manual workers and self-employed persons. Results Of the total yearly SA days of the employed population, 13% were paid to upper non-manual employees, 40% to lower non-manual employees, 37% to manual workers and 10% to the self-employed (the respective shares of these occupational classes of the employed population were 23%, 36%, 30% and 11 %). The average gross allowance was 77€ per day among upper non-manuals and between 54€ and 60€ in the other groups. Accordingly, upper non-manuals accounted for a larger share of the SA costs compared to their share of SA days: the proportions of costs were 16%, 39%, 36% and 9% in each occupational class, respectively. Conclusions The results show that as the average amount of daily sickness allowance is distributed in an opposite manner compared to the prevalence and length of sickness allowance spells, socioeconomic differences in sickness allowance costs are smaller than differences in the prevalence of sickness allowance. Key messages Upper non-manual employees have a lower prevalence of sickness absence and shorter spells than other occupational groups. Because of higher earnings-related sickness allowance among upper non-manual employees, their share of sickness allowance costs is higher than their share of sickness allowance days.

scholarly journals Using social contact data to predict and compare the impact of social distancing policies with implications for school re-opening

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Jonathan M Read ◽  
Angela R McLean ◽  
Matt J Keeling ◽  
Leon Danon
Keyword(s):  
Primary School ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Return To School ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Community Mobility ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Background Social distancing measures, including school closures, are being used to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission in many countries. Once "lockdown" has driven incidence to low levels, selected activities are being permitted. Re-opening schools is a priority because of the welfare and educational impact of closures on children. However, the impact of school re-opening needs to be considered within the context of other measures. Methods We use social contact data from the UK to predict the impact of social distancing policies on the reproduction number. We calibrate our tool to the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK using publicly available death data and Google Community Mobility Reports. We focus on the impact of re-opening schools against a back-drop of wider social distancing easing. Results We demonstrate that pre-collected social contact data, combined with incidence data and Google Community Mobility Reports, is able to provide a time-varying estimate of the reproduction number (R). From an pre-control setting when R=2.7 (95%CI 2.5, 2.9), we estimate that the minimum reproduction number that can be achieved in the UK without limiting household contacts is 0.45 (95%CI:0.41-0.50); in the absence of other changes, preventing leisure contacts has a smaller impact (R=2.0,95%CI:1.8-2.4) than preventing work contacts (R=1.5,95%CI:1.4-1.7). We find that following lockdown (when R=0.7 (95% CI 0.6, 0.8)), opening primary schools in isolation has a modest impact on transmission R=0.83 (95%CI:0.77-0.90) but that high adherence to other measures is needed. Opening secondary schools as well as primary school is predicted to have a larger overall impact (R=0.95,95%CI:0.85-1.07), however transmission could still be controlled with effective contact tracing. Conclusions Our findings suggest that primary school children can return to school without compromising transmission, however other measures, such as social distancing and contract tracing, are required to control transmission if all age groups are to return to school. Our tool provides a mapping from policies to the reproduction number and can be used by policymakers to compare the impact of social-easing measures, dissect mitigation strategies and support careful localized control strategies.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Epidemic Compartments Model and Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Shahidul Islam ◽  
Jannatun Irana Ira ◽  
K. M. Ariful Kabir ◽  
Md. Kamrujjaman
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In the promptness of the COVID-19 outbreak, it would be very important to observe and estimate the pattern of diseases to reduce the contagious infection. To study this effect, we developed a COVID-19 epidemic model that incorporates five various groups of individuals. Then we analyze the model by evaluating the equilibrium points and analyzing their stability as well as determining the basic reproduction number. Also, numerical simulations show the dynamics of a different group of the population over time. Thus, our findings based on the sensitivity analysis and the reproduction number highlight the role of outbreak of the virus that can be useful to avoid a massive collapse in Bangladesh and rest of the world. The outcome of this study concludes that outbreak will be in control which ensure the social and economic stability.

Population Policies in Turkey and Demographic Changes on a Social Map

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Murat Yucesahin ◽  
Tuğba Adalı ◽  
A Sinan Türkyılmaz
Keyword(s):  
Population Policy ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Demographic Transitions ◽  
Population Policies ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
The Social ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Low Levels

Compared to its past structure, Turkey is now a country with low levels of fertility and mortality. This junction that Turkey now has reached is associated with a number of risks, such as an ageing population, and a decreasing working-age population. The antinatalist policy era of Turkey was followed by a period of maintenance, yet the recent demographic changes formed the basis of a pronatalist population policy from the government’s view. This study discusses the link between demographic change and population policies in Turkey. It further aims to position Turkey spatially in relation to selected countries that are in various stages of their demographic transitions with different population policies, using a multidimensional scaling approach with data on 25 selected countries from the UN. The analysis is based on a 34-year period, 1975-2009, so as to better demonstrate Turkey’s international position on a social map, past and present. Our findings suggest that Turkey’s position on the social map shifted towards developed countries over time in terms of demographic indicators and population policies. 

Dowagers, Debs, Nuns and Babies: The Politics of Nostalgia and the Older Woman in the British Sunday Night Television Serial

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 769-784 ◽  
Author(s):  
Estella Tincknell
Keyword(s):  
Older Women ◽  
Social Role ◽  
Mature Female ◽  
Older Woman ◽  
Distinctive Features ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Position ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Popular Television

The extensive commercial success of two well-made popular television drama serials screened in the UK at prime time on Sunday evenings during the winter of 2011–12, Downton Abbey (ITV, 2010–) and Call the Midwife (BBC, 2012–), has appeared to consolidate the recent resurgence of the period drama during the 1990s and 2000s, as well as reassembling something like a mass audience for woman-centred realist narratives at a time when the fracturing and disassembling of such audiences seemed axiomatic. While ostensibly different in content, style and focus, the two programmes share a number of distinctive features, including a range of mature female characters who are sufficiently well drawn and socially diverse as to offer a profoundly pleasurable experience for the female viewer seeking representations of aging femininity that go beyond the sexualised body of the ‘successful ager’. Equally importantly, these two programmes present compelling examples of the ‘conjunctural text’, which appears at a moment of intense political polarisation, marking struggles over consent to a contemporary political position by re-presenting the past. Because both programmes foreground older women as crucial figures in their respective communities, but offer very different versions of the social role and ideological positioning that this entails, the underlying politics of such nostalgia becomes apparent. A critical analysis of these two versions of Britain's past thus highlights the ideological investments involved in period drama and the extent to which this ‘cosy’ genre may legitimate or challenge contemporary political claims.

Women in science: from images to data

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine Jami
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Women Scientists ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Women In Science ◽  
Standing Committee ◽  
Family Responsibilities ◽  
Working Lives ◽  
The Social ◽  
History Of

Abstract In recent decades research in the social sciences, including in the history of science, has shown that women scientists continue to be depicted as exceptions to the rule that a normal scientist is a man. The underlying message is that being an outstanding scientist is incompatible with being an ordinary woman. From women scientists’ reported experiences, we learn that family responsibilities as well as sexism in their working environment are two major hindrances to their careers. This experience is now backed by statistical analysis, so that what used to be regarded as an individual problem for each woman of science can now be identified as a multi-layered social phenomenon, to be analysed and remedied as such. Over the last five years, international scientific unions have come together to address these issues, first through the Gender Gap in Science Project, and recently through the setting up of a Standing Committee for Gender Equality in Science (SCGES) whose task is to foster measures to reduce the barriers that women scientists have to surmount in their working lives.

scholarly journals Solidarity with disabled people in times of crisis: A comparative analysis of Italy and the UK

2021 ◽  
pp. 026858092199450
Author(s):  
Nicola Maggini ◽  
Tom Montgomery ◽  
Simone Baglioni
Keyword(s):  
Social Trust ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Social Embeddedness ◽  
Disabled People ◽  
The Social ◽  
Religious Piety ◽  
Active Nature ◽  
The One ◽  
The Uk

Against the background of crisis and cuts, citizens can express solidarity with groups in various ways. Using novel survey data this article explores the attitudes and behaviours of citizens in their expressions of solidarity with disabled people and in doing so illuminates the differences and similarities across two European contexts: Italy and the UK. The findings reveal pools of solidarity with disabled people across both countries that have on the one hand similar foundations such as the social embeddedness and social trust of citizens, while on the other hand contain some differences, such as the more direct and active nature of solidarity in Italy compared to the UK and the role of religiosity as an important determinant, particularly in Italy. Across both countries the role of ‘deservingness’ was key to understanding solidarity, and the study’s conclusions raise questions about a solidarity embedded by a degree of paternalism and even religious piety.

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