Assessment оf the Economic Potential of Change in the Population of Modern Ukraine

The influence of the macroeconomic factor on the long-term trends of reproduction the population of Ukraine since independence is considered. Based on the author’s concept of “demoeconomic niche” the results of calculation of two options for estimating the “current” (per year) economic potential of population changes in Ukraine on the criteria of conditionally autonomous consumption of population and the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) were analyzed. The potential for population decline according to the first criterion is considered as a pessimistic (maximum) estimate (–30 million in 2019), according to the second - as an optimistic estimate (–2 million in 2019). The aim of the study was to perform a statistical analysis of the relationship between demographic and economic indicators of population reproduction in Ukraine and their relationship with certain options for assessing the economic potential of population change to determine their greater or lesser relevance to demographic and economic realities. Novelty: the assessment of the economic potential of population change is performed within the economic and demographic methodology developed and maintained by the author (based on the macroeconomic concept of “demoeconomic niche”). Research methods: to study the statistical relationship between indicators used methods of correlation and regression analysis (linear models), as well as a comparative analysis of the results of calculations with the actual dynamics of demographic and economic indicators. Calculations were made by means of PPP STATISTICA 8.0. A statistical analysis of the relationship between demographic and economic indicators and their relationship with the studied options for assessing the economic potential of Ukraine population change was performed to determine compliance with demographic and economic realities. All-time series of indicators (30 and 22 years) subjected to statistical analysis are translated into a single form of annual increments to ensure comparability, as a percentage of the value of the initial year of analysis. The direct linear relationship of GDP changes with the dynamics of the total fertility rate and average life expectancy at birth was recorded, and close feedback - with the dynamics of the migration balance. It is noticed that changes in GDP and the total fertility rate for the whole and rural population have cophase quasi cyclic fluctuations with a 3-4 year lag of reaction delay. It is shown that the assessment of the economic potential of population change by the criterion of conditionally autonomous consumption of population is closely statistically dependent on macroeconomic indicators and economic dynamics. The assessment based on the criterion of the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) depends more closely on the indicators that directly reflect the well-being of households. It turned out that the adequacy of the assessment based on the criterion of conditionally autonomous consumption of population gradually decreases over time due to the peculiarities of the calculation algorithm, growing inaccuracy can only be neglected at intervals of +/-5 years from the base year. The adequacy of the assessment according to the criterion of the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) depends on the correspondence to the real cost of life values for each year of the observation period, these values need to be clarified.

Transformation of Mortality by Sex in the Four Biggest Cities in Ukraine

Large cities concentrate a substantial part of the educated, highly qualified, and economically active populations. Such social “selection” with the peculiarities of lifestyle determines the distinctive characteristics of the level and structure of mortality. Even though data on deaths by causes of death for the large cities are available in Ukraine, very few studies have analyzed cause-specific mortality in these cities. The objective of the study is to make a comparative analysis of mortality from the most influential causes of death in large cities. The novelty lies in the comparative analysis done for Dnipro, Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Kharkiv for the first time. The study uses the direct method of standardization to calculate standardized death rates by sex in 2005-2019. The results indicate lower all-cause mortality rates for the large city residents compared to the corresponding average country-level indicators. Kyiv, Lviv, and Odesa have lower death rates compared to Dnipro and Kharkiv. In Kyiv and Lviv, this is attributed to lower mortality from almost all major causes of death, while in Odesa this mainly resulted from the extremely low ischemic heart disease mortality. Relatively high mortality from circulatory diseases is observed in Kharkiv and Dnipro. However, in Dnipro, this is associated with a high death rate from coronary heart disease and a very low contribution of cerebrovascular disease, whereas in Kharkiv coronary and cerebrovascular disease death rates are quite high. Mortality rates from diseases of the digestive system in the large cities are found to be the closest to the average in Ukraine (except for Lviv). The neoplasms are the only large group of diseases with a mortality rate that exceeds the average level in Ukraine, in particular for women. Overall, the death rates from most of the causes of death in the large cities demonstrated a positive trend in 2005-2019, with some exceptions. External causes and infectious diseases showed the most decrease while mortality from AIDS and ill-defined causes increased. Also, there were uncertain dynamics of deaths due to suicide and injuries with undetermined intent. Given some specific mortality differences between the cities, some concerns have been raised over the accuracy of the coding of diagnoses. In particular, unusually low mortality from ischemic heart disease was found in Odesa and from cerebrovascular disease in Dnipro, very rare deaths from alcoholic liver disease in Odesa, accidental alcohol poisoning in Kyiv, and a group of other liver diseases in Dnipro. We also assume misclassification of suicides as injuries with undetermined intent in Kharkiv. Our findings highlight the importance of the implementation of automated coding and selection of causes of death that can minimize the number of subjective decisions made by coders and lead to significant improvements in the quality of data.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of the National Youth Service Programme in Skill Development of Unemployed Graduates in the North West Province of South Africa

For the last 3 decades, youth unemployment has been a major challenge in South Africa. Education and training has been considered as a solution to this challenge in the country. The South African Government introduced skills development programs focusing on the youth to reduce unemployment and poverty. However, the youth unemployment among the skilled has been persistent. Given this background, an attempts is made in this study to evaluate the effectiveness of the National Youth Service Program (NYSP) in skill development of unemployed Graduates in the North West Province of South Africa and determine stakeholder involvement in the conceptualization, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of the skills development program. The research methodology used in this study was both quantitative approach aimed to fill in the knowledge gap, which is achieved through critical reading and analysis of what other researchers have identified, and qualitative method. A cross-sectional survey was conducted to collect data. Questionnaires were self-administered to obtain primary data from (90) graduates and (10) stakeholders who took part in the NYSP. Th e main finding of the study indicates that 83 % of the NYSP graduates are unemployed since completing the skills development program in the 2017 fiscal year. The study alluded that lack of stakeholder participation and commitment in the NYSP was attributed to the high rate of NYS graduate unemployment. Stakeholder engagement and participation will also play a critical role in ensuring that learners completing the skills development program are linked to employment opportunities and are self-reliant. The study recommends that stakeholder identification should take place before the program is being implemented.

Determinants of Savings in Urban and Rural Households: Case of South Africa

Savings have been described as a significant fi nancial and economic matter and represent an essential driving force of economic growth and development. Despite this, many studies investigating the determinants of savings in South Africa have looked predominantly at the drivers of savings only at a national level, without focusing on urban and rural differences. This is critical as these localities are structurally different, with different characteristics. It is, therefore, likely that the determinants of savings in these unique geographical localities would differ, given the negative impact of past policies of marginalisation. The purpose of this paper is to examine the urban-rural disparities in savings for South African households. We used data sourced from the five waves of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) observed from 2008-2017. The novelty of this study is in its application of a novel two-stage least square estimation technique which addresses possible endogeneity problems which might have plagued previous studies in this field. It was concluded from the research that the determinants of savings are different across samples (urban and rural). We found that having access to land is an important predictor of savings in rural areas where the poor live (positive and significant), but the coefficient is not significant in the urban sample. Although there was a positive correlation between income and savings across samples, but the income impact on savings is higher in absolute values for households residing in rural areas, compared to household living in urban areas. We also found that, despite the coefficient of employment being similar in the direction of the impact (positive and significant) across the samples, the magnitude of the coefficient was stronger in the rural sample. Based on the higher magnitude of the coefficient, we found that household size has more effect in urban than rural areas. The study recommends that government should design and implement policies that foster job creation, even low-skilled jobs, which will generate more income and reduce unemployment.

Integration of Women Into Law Enforcement Agencies in Ukraine: the Sociological Dimension

The article reveals the main trends in the process of feminization of law enforcement agencies in Ukraine, the sociological study describes the features and contradictions of women’s professional activities in force structures and the state of gender stereotypes and guidelines of men and women in law enforcement agencies. The article aims to identify the socio-psychological consequences of increasing the number of women in force law enforcement agencies and the nature of the relationship between the formed views on the role and place of women in law enforcement agencies and the relationship between women and men in this professional environment. To achieve this goal, a sociological survey was conducted, during which 784 employees of law enforcement agencies of Ukraine were interviewed (46.9 % women; 52.7 % men). The novelty lies in the definition of the main types of sexism in the professional environment of law enforcement agencies, it is also established that in modern conditions of formation of the gender structure of Ukrainian law enforcement agencies, stereotypes and directives based on patriarchal notions are predominant in employees of both genders that determine the recognition of lower and more limited professional abilities of female employees, and in this regard, their auxiliary (contractual) role position in all types of professional activities of law enforcement agencies. At the same time, the tendency of transformation of gender stereotypes and attitudes is revealed, which is determined by the strengthening of egalitarianism and weakening of traditional stereotypes and attitudes of employees of both sexes. It was found that the resource of gender tolerance (when the respondent clearly indicated that gender does not matter) in force structures is in the range of 40-60 %, depending on the question. Respondents (both men and women) showed situational gender flexibility, using both traditionally male (masculine) and female (feminine) models in assessing the professional environment of law enforcement agencies for gender equality. It is determined that women rate their abilities, competence, efficiency in force structures higher than men. Characterization of the processes of feminization in force structures is necessary to make timely and adequate efforts to remove or mitigate the emerging contradictions.

Education in the Pandemic

The education sector in Ukraine, as in most other countries of the world, is facing a global challenge due to the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Educational institutions are in an emergency situation and are forced to switch to distance or mixed learning. As a result, there were difficulties with the implementation of a new alternative model, according to which educational institutions have started to work and provide a wide range of their services. The purpose and novelty of the article is a systematic generalization of the results of the extreme mode of operation of educational institutions during the pandemic to adapt them to the extraordinary situation of functioning and further development. The method of research is the systematization of empirical data on individual practices of different types of educational institutions and, on this ground, determination of the possibility of combining in a holistic operation mechanism in terms of the social justice and effi ciency principles. Th e article analyzes the readiness of the education system for distance learning in the context of a pandemic, determines positions for the regulation and sustainable adjustment of educational institutions, ensuring fair access for various segments of society to online resources, the formation of positive scenarios for the education functioning in the epidemic and post-epidemic period. The paper uses the main theoretical positions formulated in the monograph “COVID 19. Great Overload” by Klaus Schwab, economist, founder and president of the World Economic Forum in Davos since 1971, and his co-author Thierry Muller, a publicist and researcher. One of the main provisions concerning education and its long-term development is that the current crisis is forcing society to realize that most decisions are based on moral and fair choices, and that in the future it is possible to move away from personal interests and create a more harmonious society. The UN materials on the analysis of the COVID-19 consequences for the education system and its reconstruction in the future are also used. The study identifies the dynamics of processes throughout the pandemic. Positive and problematic practices are given. The findings obtained from research and experience can be the basis for developing measures to help education institutions to overcome the “transition period”. The key factors of their stability are the general education services (digital libraries, online education platforms), mobilization of teaching and student contingents to work in new conditions, compliance of financial and distribution mechanisms with the requirements of the time.

Registers of Healthcare Systems of Northen European Countries

The introduction of electronic register systems for all spheres of state functioning is becoming more widespread in developed countries. It is the systems, not individual registers, that create the conditions for the comprehensive and effective use of available information in the field of state and local government, research, business planning, and so on. In our opinion, health care registries are the most important among other systems, so it is important to study the experience of the most developed countries in the field of creating electronic medical information resources. The use of the experience gained by advanced European countries in this area is especially useful for Ukraine, where such a system is being developed. The purpose of the article is to summarize the experience of Northern European countries in the use of electronic information resources of health care for its implementation in Ukraine. The novelty of the article is a generalized and comparative analysis of health registry systems in Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Estonia, Sweden, Finland and a study of the role of medical, statistical and scientific institutions in the development of these systems. The research methodology is based on the application of the following methods: system analysis, scientific generalization, comparative analysis, research methods of complex systems. The article examines the health care systems of six northern European countries, compares the composition and features of these systems. The focus is on electronic information resources, which are introduced only in some countries. It is established that the Danish and Norwegian systems are the most branched among the systems of other studied countries and contain not only a larger number of specialized registers, but also have the largest number of organizations that maintain these registers. The holders of registers and databases in different countries are not only the relevant ministries but also research institutes and universities. In addition, statistical authorities also create registers that are used for society’s statistical information needs. The study thus summarizes the experience of creating and operating electronic information resources in the field of health care in Northern European countries, concludes that it can be used in the implementation of a similar Ukrainian, the process of which began several years ago.

Mortality by Causes of Death in Metropolices of Ukraine

Large cities concentrate a substantial part of the educated, highly qualified, and economically active populations. Such social “selection” with the peculiarities of lifestyle determines the distinctive characteristics of the level and structure of mortality. Even though data on deaths by causes of death for the large cities are available in Ukraine, very few studies have analyzed cause-specific mortality in these cities. The objective of the study is to make a comparative analysis of mortality from the most influential causes of death in large cities. The novelty lies in the comparative analysis done for Dnipro, Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Kharkiv for the first time. The study uses the direct method of standardization to calculate standardized death rates by sex in 2005-2019. The results indicate lower all-cause mortality rates for the large city residents compared to the corresponding average country-level indicators. Kyiv, Lviv, and Odesa have lower death rates compared to Dnipro and Kharkiv. In Kyiv and Lviv, this is attributed to lower mortality from almost all major causes of death, while in Odesa this mainly resulted from the extremely low ischemic heart disease mortality. Relatively high mortality from circulatory diseases is observed in Kharkiv and Dnipro. However, in Dnipro, this is associated with a high death rate from coronary heart disease and a very low contribution of cerebrovascular disease, whereas in Kharkiv coronary and cerebrovascular disease death rates are quite high. Mortality rates from diseases of the digestive system in the large cities are found to be the closest to the average in Ukraine (except for Lviv). The neoplasms are the only large group of diseases with a mortality rate that exceeds the average level in Ukraine, in particular for women. Overall, the death rates from most of the causes of death in the large cities demonstrated a positive trend in 2005-2019, with some exceptions. External causes and infectious diseases showed the most decrease while mortality from AIDS and ill-defined causes increased. Also, there were uncertain dynamics of deaths due to suicide and injuries with undetermined intent. Given some specific mortality differences between the cities, some concerns have been raised over the accuracy of the coding of diagnoses. In particular, unusually low mortality from ischemic heart disease was found in Odesa and from cerebrovascular disease in Dnipro, very rare deaths from alcoholic liver disease in Odesa, accidental alcohol poisoning in Kyiv, and a group of other liver diseases in Dnipro. We also assume misclassification of suicides as injuries with undetermined intent in Kharkiv. Our findings highlight the importance of the implementation of automated coding and selection of causes of death that can minimize the number of subjective decisions made by coders and lead to significant improvements in the quality of data.

Formation of Institutional Gender Equality Provision in Wages in Ukraine

Further socialization of the labor market of Ukraine requires the intensification of social and labor inclusion, which reflects the process of increasing the participation of women in socially useful activities by creating conditions for the realization of their labor potential, including by ensuring equal pay for work of equal value, which determined the purpose of this publication: the formation of proposals for institutional support for equal pay for work in Ukraine based on the analysis of the gender pay gap and taking into account the progressive foreign experience of institutional support for gender equality in wages. The methodological basis are the fundamental provisions of modern economic theory in the context of finding a model for ensuring gender equality in the labor market, the institutional provision of equal pay for work of equal value; scientific achievements of foreign and domestic scientists in the direction of effective use of women’s labor potential, ensuring decent work for all. To achieve this goal, the following general and specific methods are used: the method of theoretical generalization, logical analysis in the process of studying the gender gap; systemic method to determine the approach to ensuring gender equality in remuneration with the improvement of gender policy in Ukraine; comparative analysis, synthesis and generalization, in terms of research of methodological approaches to labor evaluation from the standpoint of gender equality; methods of statistical analysis to assess the gender gap, including in wages. As a result, the institutional provision of gender equality in remuneration in Ukraine, which meets the norms of the ILO Convention No. 100 “On Equal Remuneration for Men and Women Workers for Work of Equal Value,” is further developed, with an analysis of methodological approaches to discrimination in remuneration and justification for regulatory improvement of provision of gender equality in remuneration. The study identifies Ukraine’s weak position, which increases the number of years to bridge the gender gap, which creates a number of negative consequences for Ukraine’s economy, including loss of GDP, reduced levels of savings and purchasing power. Implementation of the principles of the ILO Convention No. 100 “On Equal Remuneration for Men and Women Workers for Work of Equal Value” in Ukraine leads to the improvement of legal framework and the formation of a comprehensive system of social institutions to reduce the gender pay gap. Based on the study of foreign experience, approaches and methods of labor evaluation from the standpoint of gender equality that can be applied in Ukraine are presented. Recommendations are given for the formation of institutional support for gender equality in pay in Ukraine, which include the detection of discrimination in pay based on the introduction of forms of reporting, inspections, appeals of employees; determination of methodology and methods of assessment of equal pay for work of equal value; creation of special authorities, institutes that will deal with this issue, or expansion of the functions of existing ones; determination of the system of sanctions for employers who violate the legislation of Ukraine in terms of equal pay; coordination of regulatory and legal support regarding the definition of the categorical apparatus and the mechanism of observance of the principle of equal remuneration for work of equal value; conducting an information campaign on the protection of the rights to equal pay for work of equal value, etc.

Mediating Effects on Poverty Reduction in India Through Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme

The employment opportunities in rural areas have signifi cantly decreased for the last few decades in India. Th erefore, Government of India introduced Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme (MGNREGP) to create employment opportunities for ru ral people. Th e Programme is considered as a “silver bullet” for eradicating rural poverty and unemployment in India. Th e purpose of this empirical research study is to develop a new model for poverty reduction in rural India through this Programme. Th e novelty of this article is an attempt to develop an empirical research model that assists the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme when mapping the level of economics service quality and thereby enhance the same. Th is Programme provides an alternative source of livelihood, which will have an impact on reducing migration, restricting child labor, alleviating poverty, and making villages self-sustaining through productive assets creation such as road construction, cleaning up of water tanks, soil and water conservation work, etc. for which it has been considered as the largest anti-poverty programme in the world. Th e paper critically examines the implementation process of this Programme and its impact on tribal livelihoods. Th e following research methodology is used in the article: the data were collected using a structured questionnaire. Th e sampling procedure used for this study is stratifi ed random sampling. Th e stratifi cation is done based on the Taluks are Kumbakonam (Th anjavur District), Keeranur (Pudukottai District) and Nagappatinam (Nagappatinam District) of Tamilnadu state of South-India for the nature of region South, East, Centre, West and North while selecting the MGNREGP Employees from each category, non-probabilistic convenience and judgmental sampling technique is used. Th e fi ndings and conclusions of the study reveal that millions of rural poor with the inclusion of new works under this Programme could able to get some employment which supports their livelihoods. Eff orts are exerted to improve more transparency and accountability in implementing this programme to ensure that the benefi ts reach out to the poor and the needy villagers. Th e regression analysis revealed that the Poverty Eradication on the various dimensions of Economic Development, infl uenced Economic Development followed by Social Development. Th e visual representation of results suggest that the relationships between the dimensions of Economic Development, Social development resulted in a signifi cant impact on the mediated factor ‘Poverty Eradication’. Th e paper suggests the policy framework for the stakeholders in eff ective implementation of the Programme.