scholarly journals Assessment оf the Economic Potential of Change in the Population of Modern Ukraine

2021 ◽  
pp. 3-20
Author(s):  
O. G. ROGOZHIN
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
Subsistence Level ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Autonomous Consumption ◽  
The Relationship

The influence of the macroeconomic factor on the long-term trends of reproduction the population of Ukraine since independence is considered. Based on the author’s concept of “demoeconomic niche” the results of calculation of two options for estimating the “current” (per year) economic potential of population changes in Ukraine on the criteria of conditionally autonomous consumption of population and the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) were analyzed. The potential for population decline according to the first criterion is considered as a pessimistic (maximum) estimate (–30 million in 2019), according to the second - as an optimistic estimate (–2 million in 2019). The aim of the study was to perform a statistical analysis of the relationship between demographic and economic indicators of population reproduction in Ukraine and their relationship with certain options for assessing the economic potential of population change to determine their greater or lesser relevance to demographic and economic realities. Novelty: the assessment of the economic potential of population change is performed within the economic and demographic methodology developed and maintained by the author (based on the macroeconomic concept of “demoeconomic niche”). Research methods: to study the statistical relationship between indicators used methods of correlation and regression analysis (linear models), as well as a comparative analysis of the results of calculations with the actual dynamics of demographic and economic indicators. Calculations were made by means of PPP STATISTICA 8.0. A statistical analysis of the relationship between demographic and economic indicators and their relationship with the studied options for assessing the economic potential of Ukraine population change was performed to determine compliance with demographic and economic realities. All-time series of indicators (30 and 22 years) subjected to statistical analysis are translated into a single form of annual increments to ensure comparability, as a percentage of the value of the initial year of analysis. The direct linear relationship of GDP changes with the dynamics of the total fertility rate and average life expectancy at birth was recorded, and close feedback - with the dynamics of the migration balance. It is noticed that changes in GDP and the total fertility rate for the whole and rural population have cophase quasi cyclic fluctuations with a 3-4 year lag of reaction delay. It is shown that the assessment of the economic potential of population change by the criterion of conditionally autonomous consumption of population is closely statistically dependent on macroeconomic indicators and economic dynamics. The assessment based on the criterion of the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) depends more closely on the indicators that directly reflect the well-being of households. It turned out that the adequacy of the assessment based on the criterion of conditionally autonomous consumption of population gradually decreases over time due to the peculiarities of the calculation algorithm, growing inaccuracy can only be neglected at intervals of +/-5 years from the base year. The adequacy of the assessment according to the criterion of the actual subsistence level (including necessary payments) depends on the correspondence to the real cost of life values for each year of the observation period, these values need to be clarified.

scholarly journals Estimation of Fertility due to Contraception in Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-150
Author(s):  
Bijaya Mani Devkota
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Unmet Need ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Background Characteristics ◽  
Unintended Pregnancies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

  Fertility has an important role for demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) which is one component measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate demographic parameters. Some of these techniques are based on stable population theory and others are regression equations between the dependent variables, the TFR and the independent variables, the socio economic as well as demographic variables. The unwanted or unintended pregnancies can be avoided through the use of contraceptives; it becomes very important to estimate the births averted or pregnancies stopped by use of contraception. Though there is increase in the use of contraception, still many couples do not use contraception in spite of the fact that they require to use contraception. To satisfy this unmet need of contraception is one of the policy targets of national population policy for population stabilization. In this study, 12862 married females between 15-49 years of age, whose marital duration is more than 5 years, have been taken to study the distribution on different background characteristics and their behavior. Firstly, a regression study was done to know the impact on contraceptive use and further multivariate study has been carried out to know the effect of background characteristics and behavior on absence of birth five years jointly at different sub division. This method is based on the relationship between the Total fertility rate (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR).By using this modified estimate of TFR, birth averted for different area. The variables are CPR that about 71.4 percent variation in TFR can be explained by the first regression approach. The second is based on the relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and Additive combination of CPR and proportion of currently married females having open birth interval (NPV) explained about 82percent of the variation in TFR. The findings revealed that the TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR. Estimates of births averted and the percent change in births in the absence of contraception, based on the two methods are fairly consistent.

scholarly journals The relationship between demographic indicators of public health and environmental factors in Russian cities

2021 ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Elena V. Budilova ◽  
◽  
Michail B. Lagutin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Significant Heterogeneity ◽  
Aging Index ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Significance Levels ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Birth Death

Results. Comparison of groups of cities with different levels of air pollution in terms of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio revealed significant differences between the groups in 2014 (significance levels are 0.018 and 0.025, respectively) and their absence in 2015 and 2016. At the same time, in groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, an increase in the median values of the total fertility rates and the birth-death rates is noted. Comparison of groups of cities according to the aging index revealed a significant heterogeneity of groups with different levels of air pollution in 2014, 2015, 2016: significance levels are equal to 0.0007; 0.005; 0.002 respectively. In urban groups, with an increase in air pollution, the median value of the aging index decreases. Conclusion. An analysis of the relationship between demographic indicators of population health and the level of air pollution showed that the most sensitive to the level of air pollution are indicators such as the total fertility rate, the birth-death ratio and the aging index. In groups of cities, with an increase in the level of air pollution, the median values of the total fertility rate and the birth-death ratio increase, while the median values of the aging index decrease. The results obtained are consistent with the provisions of the theory of life history evolution. This research was performed according to the Development program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University “The future of the planet and global environmental change”.

Demographic Transition in India: Insights Into Population Growth, Composition, and Its Major Drivers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Usha Ram ◽  
Faujdar Ram
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth

Globally, countries have followed demographic transition theory and transitioned from high levels of fertility and mortality to lower levels. These changes have resulted in the improved health and well-being of people in the form of extended longevity and considerable improvements in survival at all ages, specifically among children and through lower fertility, which empowers women. India, the second most populous country after China, covers 2.4% of the global surface area and holds 18% of the world’s population. The United Nations 2019 medium variant population estimates revealed that India would surpass China in the year 2030 and would maintain the first rank after 2030. The population of India would peak at 1.65 billion in 2061 and would begin to decline thereafter and reach 1.44 billion in the year 2100. Thus, India’s experience will pose significant challenges for the global community, which has expressed its concern about India’s rising population size and persistent higher fertility and mortality levels. India is a country of wide socioeconomic and demographic diversity across its states. The four large states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan accounted for 37% of the country’s total population in 2011 and continue to exhibit above replacement fertility (that is, the total fertility rate, TFR, of greater than 2.1 children per woman) and higher mortality levels and thus have great potential for future population growth. For example, nationally, the life expectancy at birth in India is below 70 years (lagging by more than 3 years when compared to the world average), but the states of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan have an average life expectancy of around 65–66 years. The spatial distribution of India’s population would have a more significant influence on its future political and economic scenario. The population growth rate in Kerala may turn negative around 2036, in Andhra Pradesh (including the newly created state of Telangana) around 2041, and in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu around 2046. Conversely, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan would have 764 million people in 2061 (45% of the national total) by the time India’s population reaches around 1.65 billion. Nationally, the total fertility rate declined from about 6.5 in early 1960 to 2.3 children per woman in 2016, a result of the massive efforts to improve comprehensive maternal and child health programs and nationwide implementation of the national health mission with a greater focus on social determinants of health. However, childhood mortality rates continue to be unacceptably high in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh (for every 1,000 live births, 43 to 55 children die in these states before celebrating their 5th birthday). Intertwined programmatic interventions that focus on female education and child survival are essential to yield desired fertility and mortality in several states that have experienced higher levels. These changes would be crucial for India to stabilize its population before reaching 1.65 billion. India’s demographic journey through the path of the classical demographic transition suggests that India is very close to achieving replacement fertility.

scholarly journals Estimation of total fertility rate and birth averted due to contraception: regression approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 105-112
Author(s):  
Bijaya Mani Devkota
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Predictor Variable ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Background Characteristics ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Stable Population Theory ◽  
The Relationship

Fertility plays an important role in any demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) is one of the basic measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate the demographic parameters with incomplete data. Some of these techniques are based on utilizing the data from stable population theory while others are based on the regression technique in which the parameters are estimated through regression equations between the dependent variable which is the TFR and the independent variables which is the socio economic well as demographic variables. The first method is based on the relationship between the Total fertility rate (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rate for all women. By using this modified estimate of TFR, demographic analysis can easily calculate the birth averted for different regions as well as states also. In fact, provide reasonable estimates of births averted due to contraceptive use by national populations. The variables are CPR that about 51.2 percent variation in TFR can be explained by the first regression approach. The second is based on the relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and Additive combination of CPR and proportion of currently married females having open birth interval. Using new predictor variable, the improved model explained about 55percent of the variation in TFR. The findings reveal that the values of TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR without involving much computational complexities at different background characteristics. Estimates of births averted and the percent change in births in the absence of contraception, based on the two methods, are fairly consistent.

scholarly journals Forecasting Fertility Based on Economic Factors

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-58
Author(s):  
A. Kashepov
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Pair Correlation ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Socioeconomic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Policy

The Object of the Study: Demographic situation, population reproduction. fertility, fertility factors by group: demographic factors directly included in the number of benefits, subsidies and other measures of state demographic policy, economic factors that have a direct or indirect impact on the demographic situation in General, and the birth rate of the populationThe Subject of Study: fertility Forecasting based on selected groups of factors, using statistical methods, in particular regression equations.The Puroose of the Puroose of the Study is : to Identify the dominant influence of GDP, per capita income, the level of specific budget expenditures and other economic indicators on the main indicators of fertility.The Main Provisions of the Article: according to the calculations of the coefficients of pair correlation, the main indicators of fertility, and the key indicator TFR in particular,- depend not only on the passage of "demographic waves", and the level of costs of the national project "Demography", but also on GDP and other socioeconomic indicators. Traditional fertility projections are based on models that link age-specific fertility rates and the total fertility rate to the number of female populations that vary with the passage of "demographic waves". The ideology of traditional forecasting is the theory of "demographic transition". This article proposes to expand the field of forecasting methods due to a more confident connection of demographic indicators with economic ones. In particular, it is assumed that economic growth, and the resulting increase in specific budget expenditures on social, including demographic, policy, income growth and housing security of the population, can "equalize" the demographic wave, lowering its height and reducing its amplitude. Economic factors, if they are positive, can mitigate the decline in fertility and increase its growth. This addition to the generally accepted, but almost "separated" from the economy theories of "demographic transition", allow to adjust the forecasts of the total fertility rate (TFR). For this correction, the article proposes to use regression equations. This group of equations is suitable when retrospective statistical series of economic indicators for a sufficiently long period of time are available for analysis, and there are official (or generally accepted expert forecasts) for the future. This is the difference between the equations used in the article and more complex mathematical constructions, which offer a certain explanation of the situation, but do not have a statistical base for forecasting. In addition, the proposed equations are simple and effective for use by practitioners, because they do not require complex mathematical programs and can be easily implemented in the Excel processor.

scholarly journals Fertility rebound and economic growth. New evidence for 18 countries over the period 1970–2011

Equilibrium ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Dominiak ◽  
Ewa Lechman ◽  
Anna Okonowicz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Variations ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
The Relationship

Long-run impact of economic growth on fertility trends is ambiguous and sensitive for in-time variations. Noticeably, over last decades, economic growth has led to significant falls in total fertility rates in many countries. However, recently, in high-income economies a kind of ‘fertility rebound’ emerged (Goldstein, 2009; Luci and Thevenon, 2011; Day, 2012), which supports the hypothesis that reversal trends in total fertility rates are mainly attributed to economic growth. The paper unveils the relationship between total fertility rate changes and economic growth in 18 selected countries with fertility rebound observed, over the period 1970–2011, and detects the GDP-threshold at which the fertility rebound emerged. To report on the relationship we deploy longitudinal data analysis assuming non-linearity between examined variables. The data applied are exclusively derived from World Development Indicators 2013. Our main findings support the hypothesis on U-shaped relationship between the total fertility rate and economic growth in analyzed countries in 1970-2011. Along with the previous, we project the minimum level of GDP per capita (GDP-threshold) when the fertility rebound takes place.

scholarly journals Economic determinants of fertility forecasting in Russia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 161-186
Author(s):  
Aleksey Kashepov
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Gross National Product ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
National Product ◽  
Mathematical Statistics ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Economic Determinants ◽  
Economic Level

The article presents the author’s concept of demographic forecasting, which argues that GDP, other macroeconomic and socio-economic (level of life) processes and indices do matter. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the possibilities of publicly available (which are part of standard mathematic and statistical programs) methods of mathematical statistics to identify economic factors of population reproduction and fertility in particular. The article justifies the possibility of forecasting the total fertility rate (TFR) on the basis of macroeconomic forecasts of the dynamics of the gross national product (GDP) and other key economic indicators.

A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Women ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Planning Meeting ◽  
Annual Birth Rate

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.

scholarly journals BMI-1 Expression Heterogeneity in Endometriosis-Related and Non-Endometriotic Ovarian Carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 6082
Author(s):  
Ludmila Lozneanu ◽  
Raluca Anca Balan ◽  
Ioana Păvăleanu ◽  
Simona Eliza Giuşcă ◽  
Irina-Draga Căruntu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stem Cells ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Ovarian Carcinoma ◽  
Clinicopathological Characteristics ◽  
Cell Phenotype ◽  
Epithelial Tumor ◽  
Normal Organ ◽  
Ovarian Carcinogenesis ◽  
Cellular Signaling Pathway ◽  
The Relationship

BMI-1 is a key component of stem cells, which are essential for normal organ development and cell phenotype maintenance. BMI-1 expression is deregulated in cancer, resulting in the alteration of chromatin and gene transcription repression. The cellular signaling pathway that governs BMI-1 action in the ovarian carcinogenesis sequences is incompletely deciphered. In this study, we set out to analyze the immunohistochemical (IHC) BMI-1 expression in two different groups: endometriosis-related ovarian carcinoma (EOC) and non-endometriotic ovarian carcinoma (NEOC), aiming to identify the differences in its tissue profile. Methods: BMI-1 IHC expression has been individually quantified in epithelial and in stromal components by using adapted scores systems. Statistical analysis was performed to analyze the relationship between BMI-1 epithelial and stromal profile in each group and between groups and its correlation with classical clinicopathological characteristics. Results: BMI-1 expression in epithelial tumor cells was mostly low or negative in the EOC group, and predominantly positive in the NEOC group. Moreover, the stromal BMI-1 expression was variable in the EOC group, whereas in the NEOC group, stromal BMI-1 expression was mainly strong. We noted statistically significant differences between the epithelial and stromal BMI-1 profiles in each group and between the two ovarian carcinoma (OC) groups. Conclusions: Our study provides solid evidence for a different BMI-1 expression in EOC and NEOC, corresponding to the differences in their etiopathogeny. The reported differences in the BMI-1 expression of EOC and NEOC need to be further validated in a larger and homogenous cohort of study.

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