Increasing Mass Timber Consumption in the U.S. and Sustainable Timber Supply

Mass timber products are growing in popularity as a substitute for steel and concrete, reducing embodied carbon in the built environment. This trend has raised questions about the sustainability of the U.S. timber supply. Our research addresses concerns that rising demand for mass timber products may result in unsustainable levels of harvesting in coniferous forests in the United States. Using U.S. Department of Agriculture U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, incremental U.S. softwood (coniferous) timber harvests were projected to supply a high-volume estimate of mass timber and dimensional lumber consumption in 2035. Growth in reserve forests and riparian zones was excluded, and low confidence intervals were used for timber growth estimates, compared with high confidence intervals for harvest and consumption estimates. Results were considered for the U.S. in total and by three geographic regions (North, South, and West). In total, forest inventory growth in America exceeds timber harvests including incremental mass timber volumes. Even the most optimistic projections of mass timber growth will not exceed the lowest expected annual increases in the nation’s harvestable coniferous timber inventory.

VLT/SPHERE imaging survey of the largest main-belt asteroids: Final results and synthesis

Context. Until recently, the 3D shape, and therefore density (when combining the volume estimate with available mass estimates), and surface topography of the vast majority of the largest (D ≥ 100 km) main-belt asteroids have remained poorly constrained. The improved capabilities of the SPHERE/ZIMPOL instrument have opened new doors into ground-based asteroid exploration. Aims. To constrain the formation and evolution of a representative sample of large asteroids, we conducted a high-angular-resolution imaging survey of 42 large main-belt asteroids with VLT/SPHERE/ZIMPOL. Our asteroid sample comprises 39 bodies with D ≥ 100 km and in particular most D ≥ 200 km main-belt asteroids (20/23). Furthermore, it nicely reflects the compositional diversity present in the main belt as the sampled bodies belong to the following taxonomic classes: A, B, C, Ch/Cgh, E/M/X, K, P/T, S, and V. Methods. The SPHERE/ZIMPOL images were first used to reconstruct the 3D shape of all targets with both the ADAM and MPCD reconstruction methods. We subsequently performed a detailed shape analysis and constrained the density of each target using available mass estimates including our own mass estimates in the case of multiple systems. Results. The analysis of the reconstructed shapes allowed us to identify two families of objects as a function of their diameters, namely “spherical” and “elongated” bodies. A difference in rotation period appears to be the main origin of this bimodality. In addition, all but one object (216 Kleopatra) are located along the Maclaurin sequence with large volatile-rich bodies being the closest to the latter. Our results further reveal that the primaries of most multiple systems possess a rotation period of shorter than 6 h and an elongated shape (c∕a ≤ 0.65). Densities in our sample range from ~1.3 g cm−3 (87 Sylvia) to ~4.3 g cm−3 (22 Kalliope). Furthermore, the density distribution appears to be strongly bimodal with volatile-poor (ρ ≥ 2.7 g cm−3) and volatile-rich (ρ ≤ 2.2 g cm−3) bodies. Finally, our survey along with previous observations provides evidence in support of the possibility that some C-complex bodies could be intrinsically related to IDP-like P- and D-type asteroids, representing different layers of a same body (C: core; P/D: outer shell). We therefore propose that P/ D-types and some C-types may have the same origin in the primordial trans-Neptunian disk.

1014 Assessment of Prostate Gland Volume Estimations Using MRI And TRUS Compared to Radical Prostatectomy Specimens

Introduction The prostate volume is an essential criterion to calculate prostate specific antigen density (PSAD). When selecting patients for active surveillance (AS), in newly diagnosed low risk prostate cancer group or continuing AS in previously diagnosed cancer prostate, PSAD plays a major role. Estimation of the volume using digital rectal exam or PSA are inaccurate. This study aims to conduct a retrospective review to evaluate the accuracy of prostatic volume estimates in patients who had TRUS and MRI scans, comparing the obtained volumes to the reference standard which is the actual volume of radical prostatectomy specimen. Method Data was collected retrospectively for all patients who had robotic assisted radical prostatectomy (RRP) at the Royal Stoke Hospital between October 2015 and October 2018. Clinical information of TRUS and MRI prostate volumes were extracted from PACS and prostate specimen volume was collected from the histopathology report of RRP specimen. Results Pathological specimen prostate volume showed a positive relationship between MRI and TRUS prostate volume with a correlation efficient of 0.71 for MRI vs RRP specimen volume and 0.81 for TRUS vs RRP specimen volume. Mean TRUS volume underestimated prostate volume by 7.33cc and mean MRI volume underestimated prostate volume by 0.02cc Conclusions Although the study showed positive correlation between measuring prostate volume using MRI and TRUS as compared to RRP specimens, MRI showed a greater accuracy as compared to TRUS. We conclude that using MRI prostate volume gives more precise prostate volume estimate aiding appropriate therapeutic planning of patients with prostate cancer.

Hydrocarbon Volume Estimate Using Pseudo Steady-State/Pressure-Transient Principles in a Faulted Reservoir

The application of pseudo-steady-state and pressure transient response techniques to assist in hydrocarbon volume estimate is presented for a reservoir isolated from its main by a non-sealing fault. The techniques discussed in this paper utilized the pseudo steady state principle to determine the fault boundary behavior dominated flow regime of an oil well which has produced for over eight years in a marginal field of the Niger Delta environment. The material balance technique which utilized accountability of fluid withdrawn/injected and energy conservation principles within the pseudo steady state boundary dominated flow was used alongside with the pressure transient analysis to validate this oil in place number. Seismic attributes was also used to predict the geometry and distribution of the sand based on the conventional seismic interpretation. The seismic attribute analyses clearly show the geometry and spatial distribution of the reservoir sand bodies. Hence, understanding a pseudo steady state dominated regional flow time in a faulted reservoir plays a key role in the management and development of reserves in a marginal field operation.

VOLUME ESTIMATE FOR THREE TIMBER SPECIES WITH COMMERCIAL INTEREST FROM THE DIAMETER OF THE STUMP

The commercial volume of trees can be calculated directly and indirectly. However, in areas of illegal deforestation, the stem is often not available for dendrometric measurements and, consequently, calculation of the commercial volume and the use of the direct method. On the other hand, the use of the indirect method is impossible due to the lack of equations with possible measurement variables. In order to make the volume estimate feasible in these cases, the objective of this work was to estimate the commercial volume of wood from individual trees using regression equations, using measurements made on the stump for three species of commercial interest, in areas of timber forest management, namely: Dipteryx odorata (Aubl.) Willd., Apuleia leiocarpa (Vogel) JFMacbr. and Amburana acreana (Ducke) A.C.Sm. Data were collected in two management areas, located in the municipalities of Sena Madureira and Rio Branco, with a sample of 250 stumps. Statistical tests were carried out to analyze regression and choose the best equations that would estimate the volume of the species selected for the study, based on the diameter of the stump. Tests of accuracy, precision, assumptions, validation and identity model were applied for choice. Models that met the research objectives for both species were tested with R²adj = 87.7% for Dipteryx odorata (Aubl.) Willd., R²adj = 81.8% for Apuleia leiocarpa (Vogel) J.F.Macbr. and R²adj = 70.5% for Amburana acreana (Ducke) A.C.Sm., as well as meeting all the assumptions of the regression resulting in the validation of the equations adjusted by the selected models.

Calibration of a frontal ablation parameterisation applied to Greenland's peripheral calving glaciers

We calibrate the calving parameterisation implemented in the Open Global Glacier Model via two methods (velocity constraint and surface mass balance (SMB) constraint) and assess the impact of accounting for frontal ablation on the ice volume estimate of Greenland tidewater peripheral glaciers (PGs). We estimate an average regional frontal ablation flux of 7.38±3.45 Gta−1 after calibrating the model with two different satellite velocity products, and of 0.69±0.49 Gta−1 if the model is constrained using frontal ablation fluxes derived from independent modelled SMB averaged over an equilibrium reference period (1961–90). This second method makes the assumption that most PGs during that time have an equilibrium between mass gain via SMB and mass loss via frontal ablation. This assumption serves as a basis to assess the order of magnitude of dynamic mass loss of glaciers when compared to the SMB imbalance. The differences between results from both methods indicate how strong the dynamic imbalance might have been for PGs during that reference period. Including frontal ablation increases the estimated regional ice volume of PGs, from 14.47 to 14.64±0.12 mm sea level equivalent when using the SMB method and to 15.84±0.32 mm sea level equivalent when using the velocity method.

Community Forest Management of the Virola Jatobá Sustainable Development Project:

Community forest management, if guided on sustainable bases, can guarantee the conservation of Vouacapoua americana Aublet, commonly called “acapu”, combined with economic gain for traditional Amazonian communities. This work aimed to analyze scenarios for the management of the species in the Virola-Jatobá Sustainable Development Project, municipality of Anapu. The acapu population accessed represented 18.6% of the trees in the forest, an average of five trees/ha and a volume estimate of 8.4 mÑ/ha. The species presented a grouped spatial distribution pattern, a diametric distribution curve in the form of “J-inverted”, giving good ecological characteristics of population stability, and approximately 90% of the shafts with good quality for handling. Ecological and economic results from different management scenarios were analyzed, using two exploration intensities and three marketing modalities. The exploration intensities used were low (2.6mÑ/ha), conditioned to the maintenance of the balanced diametric distribution (applying Liocourt’s “q” quotient method), and the maximum legally allowed (6.2mÑ/ha), which caused unbalance of the distribution of individuals in the diametric classes, in addition to drastic population reduction. The commercialization in cut piles, using local labor, was more profitable; while the sale of logs was not economically viable. The proposition of a less complex system with the management of acapu can guarantee sustainable socioeconomic benefits, leverage and empower community members to more complex forest management systems. It is suggested that community management of acapu be considered in development policies and in decision-making about forest resource management in areas where its occurrence is widespread.

Abstract P220: Hemorrhagic Stroke Patients Admitted to Inpatient Rehabilitation Facilities Improve Differently Based on Their Involvement of Corticospinal Tract

Introduction: We asked whether intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients admitted to inpatient rehabilitation facilities(IRF) improve differently based on their involvement of the corticospinal tract(CST). Aim: To predict associating radiological factors affecting discharge FIM score. Methods: We reviewed the patients’ characteristics and their respective imaging findings presenting with ICH between 4/17 to 8/19. The ICH volume and edema around the ICH were measured using analyze software. The main outcome measure was FIM score at time of discharge. Statistical significance was set at 0.05. Results: Among the 53 patients included, 49% were female. The median age of the patients was 62 years (IQR 25,89). The median length of stay at IRF was 22days (IQR 14,26). In univariate analysis, FIM score at the time of discharge FIM score at the time of discharge admission were significantly associated with NIHSS (estimate -1.26, p<0.001), and ICH volume (estimate -3.45, p=0.01). However, the univariate analysis did not reveal an association of age (estimate -0.15, p=0.4) and gender (estimate 0.207, p=0.97) with FIM score at the time of discharge.Multiple regression analysis reflected that the CST involvement had a decrement in functional improvement on FIM in comparison with patients with intact CST when adjusting for age ( p = 0.008), gender ( p <0.01), NIHSS at the time of admission ( p <0.01), and the ICH volume ( p =0.02). Conclusion: This preliminary study suggests that functional improvement declines in ICH patients with CST involvement.

A Simplified Representation of Pressure Flow from Surface Slopes in Urban Sewer Systems

A Constant Pipe Drainage (CPD) capacity for sewer systems is commonly applied when undertaking flood risk assessment, however data that are needed for calibration and validation of numerical models are scarce or unavailable. The CPD model neglects the effect of pressure flow and leads to significant deviation in flood volume estimate. This study proposes a new index Velocity Ratio (VR) to approximate pressure flow. A case study in Guangzhou, China is used to investigate the capability of reproducing a reasonable flood volume for two models, the CPD and the VR-based. Compared to the flood volume simulated by the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the CPD model shows a significant overestimation, Mean Relative Deviation (MRD) 192%. The VR-based model has a much better performance, MRD 18%. Therefore, the VR-based model is a simple and effective representation of pressure flow in urban sewer systems and can be easily applied in areas lacking detailed pipe data, especially for planning new pipe networks or updating the old pipes.