Fitting Empirical Fundamental Diagrams of Road Traffic: A Comprehensive Review and Comparison of Models Using an Extensive Data Set

<div>Understanding the inter-relationships between traffic flow, density, and speed through the study of the fundamental diagram of road traffic is critical for traffic modelling and management. Consequently, over the last 85 years, a wealth of models have been developed for its functional form. However, there has been no clear answer as to which model is the most appropriate for observed (i.e. empirical) fundamental diagrams and under which conditions. A lack of data has been partly to blame. Motivated by shortcomings in previous reviews, we first present a comprehensive literature review on modelling the functional form of empirical fundamental diagrams. We then perform fits of 50 previously proposed models to a high quality sample of 10,150 empirical fundamental diagrams pertaining to 25 cities. Comparing the fits using information criteria, we find that the non-parametric Sun model greatly outperforms all of the other models. The Sun model maintains its winning position regardless of road type and congestion level. Our study, the first of its kind when considering the number of models tested and the amount of data used, finally provides a definitive answer to the question ``Which model for the functional form of an empirical fundamental diagram is currently the best?''. The word ``currently'' in this question is key, because previously proposed models adopt an inappropriate Gaussian noise model with constant variance. We advocate that future research should shift focus to exploring more sophisticated noise models. This will lead to an improved understanding of empirical fundamental diagrams and their underlying functional forms.</div><div><br></div><div>Accepted by IEEE Transactions On Intelligent Transportation Systems on 14th Dec 2021<br></div><br>

How to live an elderly woman with prolapse of the genitals?

Несмотря на значительное развитие современной медицины, проблема пролапса органов малого таза не теряет своей актуальности и по сей день. Симптомокомплекс, который возникает при изменении анатомии тазового дна и органов малого таза, существенно ухудшает качество жизни пациенток. Это обстоятельство особенно важно учитывать у женщин старшей возрастной группы. Безусловно, повышенного внимания требуют все пациентки, страдающие пролапсом тазовых органов, который может быть диагностирован в различных возрастных категориях. Однако особую обеспокоенность вызывает состояние пациенток именно постменопаузального периода. Это обусловлено тем, что в старшем возрасте происходят значительные изменения в организме женщины, которые выступают провоцирующими или усугубляющими факторами в развитии пролапса тазовых органов. Одним из основных аспектов у таких пациенток является состояние гипоэстрогении. Кроме того, в старшем возрасте встречается большое количество других соматических заболеваний, которые оказывают существенное влияние на прогрессирование патологического процесса. Также необходимо учитывать, что современная женщина практически треть своей жизни проводит в постменопаузальном периоде. Поэтому перед врачами стоит серьезная задача по достижению должного качества жизни возрастных пациенток. В настоящее время причины, приводящие к развитию пролапса, известны, однако окончательного ответа относительно этиологии данного заболевания до сих пор нет. Это обстоятельство диктует необходимость дальнейшего глубокого и детального изучения проблемы пролапса, а также поиска более совершенных диагностических и лечебных методик. Внедрение в клиническую практику новых методов и подходов будет способствовать своевременной диагностике заболевания и адекватному лечению, что существенно повлияет на состояние здоровья пациенток постменопаузального периода и позволит начать жить полноценной жизнью. In spite of the significant development of modern medicine, the problem of pelvic organ prolapse does not lose its actuality nowadays. Complex of symptoms that occurs when the anatomy of the pelvic floor and pelvic organs changes greatly decrease the quality of patients lives. This circumstance is especially important to take into account in older women. Certainly increased attention is required by all patients suffering from pelvic organ prolapse, which can be diagnosed in different age categories. However, the condition of postmenopausal patients is of particular concern. This is due to the fact that at an older age, significant changes occur in a woman's body, which act as provoking or aggravating factors in the development of pelvic organ prolapse. One of the main aspects of such patients is the state of hypoestrogenism. Besides, at an older age there are a large number of other extra genital pathology somatic diseases that influence significantly on the progression of the pathological process. It is also necessary to take into account that a modern woman spends almost a third of her life in the postmenopausal period. That is why doctors face a serious challenge to achieve the proper quality of life of age-related patients. Nowadays the causes leading to the development of prolapse are known, but there is still no definitive answer regarding the etiology of this disease. This circumstance dictates the necessity for further in-depth and detailed studying the problem of prolapse, as well as the search for more advanced diagnostic and therapeutic techniques. The introduction of new methods and approaches into clinical practice will contribute to the timely diagnosis of the disease and adequate treatment, which will significantly affect the health of postmenopausal patients and will allow them to start living a full life.

Dying From COVID-19 or With COVID-19: A Definitive Answer Through a Retrospective Analysis of Mortality in Italy (Preprint)

BACKGROUND COVID-19 mortality was associated with several reasons, including conspiracy theories and infodemic phenomena. However, little is known about the potential endogenous reasons for the increase in COVID-19 associated mortality in Italy. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to search the potential endogenous reasons for the increase in COVID-19 mortality recorded in Italy during the year 2020 and evaluate the statistical significance of the latter. METHODS We analyzed all the trends in the timelapse 2011-2019 related to deaths by age, sex, region, and cause of death in Italy and compared them with those of 2020. Ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regressions and ARIMA (p, d, q) models were applied to investigate the predictions of death in 2020 as compared to death reported in the same year. Grubbs and Iglewicz-Hoaglin tests were used to identify the statistical differences between the predicted and observed deaths. The relationship between mortality and predictive variables was assessed using OLS multiple regression models. RESULTS Both ARIMA and OLS linear regression models predicted the number of deaths in Italy during 2020 to be between 640,000 and 660,000 (95% confidence intervals range: 620,000 – 695,000) and these values were far from the observed deaths reported (above 750,000). Significant difference in deaths at national level (P = 0.003), and higher male mortality than women (+18% versus +14%, P < 0.001 versus P = 0.01) was observed. Finally, higher mortality was strongly and positively correlated with latitude (R = 0.82, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Our findings support the absence of historical endogenous reasons capable of justifying the increase in deaths and mortality observed in Italy in 2020. Together with the current knowledge on the novel coronavirus 2019, these findings provide decisive evidence on the devastating impact of COVID-19 in Italy. We suggest that this research be leveraged by government, health, and information authorities to furnish proof against conspiracy hypotheses. Moreover, given the marked concordance between the predictions of the ARIMA and OLS regression models, we suggest that these models be exploited to predict mortality trends.

Dying from COVID-19 or with COVID-19: a definitive answer through a retrospective analysis of mortality in Italy

Background: COVID-19 mortality was associated with several reasons, including conspiracy theories and infodemic phenomena. However, little is known about the potential endogenous reasons for the increase in COVID-19 associated mortality in Italy. Objective: This study aimed to search the potential endogenous reasons for the increase in COVID-19 mortality recorded in Italy during the year 2020 and evaluate the statistical significance of the latter. Methods: We analyzed all the trends in the timelapse 2011-2019 related to deaths by age, sex, region, and cause of death in Italy and compared them with those of 2020. Ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regressions and ARIMA (p, d, q) models were applied to investigate the predictions of death in the year 2020 as compared to death reported in 2020. Grubbs and Iglewicz-Hoaglin tests were used to identify the statistical differences between the predictors and observed death during the year 2020. The relationship between mortality and predictive variables was assessed using OLS multiple regression models. Results: Both ARIMA and OLS linear regression models predicted the number of deaths in Italy during the year 2020 is between 640,000 and 660,000 (95% confidence intervals range: 620,000 - 695,000) and these values were far from the observed deaths reported (n = 750,000). Significant difference in deaths at national level (P = 0.003), and higher male mortality than women (+18% versus +14%, P < 0.001 versus P = 0.01) was observed. Finally, higher mortality was strongly and positively correlated with latitude (R = 0.82, P < 0.001) Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the absence of historical endogenous reasons capable of justifying the increase in deaths and mortality observed in Italy in 2020. Together with the current knowledge on the novel coronavirus 2019, these findings provide decisive evidence on the devastating impact of COVID-19 in Italy. We suggest that this research be leveraged by government, health, and information authorities to furnish proof against conspiracy theorists. Moreover, given the marked concordance between the predictions of the ARIMA and OLS regression models, we suggest that these models be exploited to predict mortality trends.

Chancellor ambitions of Alfred Von Waldersee: personal diary as a historical source

Жизнь и деятельность графа Альфреда фон Вальдерзее (1832–1904), одного из ведущих представителей военно-политической элиты Германии конца XIX в., до сих пор остается слабо изученной. Цель настоящего исследования – выяс-нить, может ли его личный дневник дать однозначный ответ на вопрос о нали-чии у него канцлерских амбиций. Обращаясь к исследованиям культурологов, социологов и психологов, автор делает вывод о том, что дневник отражает в первую очередь представления человека о самом себе, его идентичность. Вальдерзее крайне неохотно писал о тех своих действиях, которые плохо со-относились с образом «идеального офицера». Таким образом, ссылка на днев-никовые записи не является однозначным аргументом в пользу отсутствия у Вальдерзее канцлерских амбиций. The life and activities of Alfred Graf Waldersee – one of the most influential military-political leaders of the German empire in the late XIXth century – remain understudied. The goal of the present article is to assess whether his personal diary can provide us a definitive answer about Waldersee’s chancellor ambitions. The main conclusion after consulting the writings of cultural scientists, social scientists and psychologists dealing with diaries is that a diary reflects primarily the self-image of a person, his/her identity. Waldersee was very reticent in describing his actions not corresponding with the image of an “ideal officer”. Therefore, the diary entries cannot prove the absence of ambitions for chancellorship by Waldersee.

Rigorous Policy-Making Amid COVID-19 and Beyond: Literature Review and Critical Insights

Policies shape society. Public health policies are of particular importance, as they often dictate matters in life and death. Accumulating evidence indicates that good-intentioned COVID-19 policies, such as shelter-in-place measures, can often result in unintended consequences among vulnerable populations such as nursing home residents and domestic violence victims. Thus, to shed light on the issue, this study aimed to identify policy-making processes that have the potential of developing policies that could induce optimal desirable outcomes with limited to no unintended consequences amid the pandemic and beyond. Methods: A literature review was conducted in PubMed, PsycINFO, and Scopus to answer the research question. To better structure the review and the subsequent analysis, theoretical frameworks such as the social ecological model were adopted to guide the process. Results: The findings suggested that: (1) people-centered; (2) artificial intelligence (AI)-powered; (3) data-driven, and (4) supervision-enhanced policy-making processes could help society develop policies that have the potential to yield desirable outcomes with limited unintended consequences. To leverage these strategies’ interconnectedness, the people-centered, AI-powered, data-driven, and supervision-enhanced (PADS) model of policy making was subsequently developed. Conclusions: The PADS model can develop policies that have the potential to induce optimal outcomes and limit or eliminate unintended consequences amid COVID-19 and beyond. Rather than serving as a definitive answer to problematic COVID-19 policy-making practices, the PADS model could be best understood as one of many promising frameworks that could bring the pandemic policy-making process more in line with the interests of societies at large; in other words, more cost-effectively, and consistently anti-COVID and pro-human.

Magnetogenesis and the Cosmic Web: A Joint Challenge for Radio Observations and Numerical Simulations

The detection of the radio signal from filaments in the cosmic web is crucial to distinguish possible magnetogenesis scenarios. We review the status of the different attempts to detect the cosmic web at radio wavelengths. This is put into the context of the advanced simulations of cosmic magnetism carried out in the last few years by our MAGCOW project. While first attempts of imaging the cosmic web with the MWA and LOFAR have been encouraging and could discard some magnetogenesis models, the complexity behind such observations makes a definitive answer still uncertain. A combination of total intensity and polarimetric data at low radio frequencies that the SKA and LOFAR2.0 will achieve is key to removing the existing uncertainties related to the contribution of many possible sources of signal along deep lines of sight. This will make it possible to isolate the contribution from filaments, and expose its deep physical connection with the origin of extragalactic magnetism.

The Pareto Frontier of Inefficiency in Mechanism Design

We study the trade-off between the price of anarchy (PoA) and the price of stability (PoS) in mechanism design in the prototypical problem of unrelated machine scheduling. We give bounds on the space of feasible mechanisms with respect to these metrics and observe that two fundamental mechanisms, namely the first price (FP) and the second price (SP), lie on the two opposite extrema of this boundary. Furthermore, for the natural class of anonymous task-independent mechanisms, we completely characterize the PoA/PoS Pareto frontier; we design a class of optimal mechanisms [Formula: see text] that lie exactly on this frontier. In particular, these mechanisms range smoothly with respect to parameter [Formula: see text] across the frontier, between the first price ([Formula: see text]) and second price ([Formula: see text]) mechanisms. En route to these results, we also provide a definitive answer to an important question related to the scheduling problem, namely whether nontruthful mechanisms can provide better makespan guarantees in the equilibrium compared with truthful ones. We answer this question in the negative by proving that the price of anarchy of all scheduling mechanisms is at least n, where n is the number of machines.

A Qualitative Study on Prehabilitation before Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasties: Integration of Patients’ and Clinicians’ Perspectives

To explore and integrate the perspectives of patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), their caregivers, and clinicians who are working with these patients about current preoperative rehabilitation (“prehab”) content and delivery. Participants were individuals with hip (n = 46) or knee OA (n = 14), their family caregivers (n = 16), and clinicians working with patients with hip/knee OA (n = 15). In semi-structured interviews and focus groups, participants answered questions regarding barriers to accessing prehab, gaps in prehab content, learning preferences, and delivery formats. Interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. Data were analyzed using Qualitative Description method. Four main themes were identified: (1) “I didn’t get any of that” discusses barriers in accessing prehab; (2) “I never got a definitive answer” highlights necessary information in prehab; (3) “better idea of what’s going to happen” emphasizes the positive and negative aspects of prehab; (4) “a lot of people are shifting to online” describes participants’ perspectives on online education. Our findings confirm the need for prehab education and the potential of online prehab education. The results inform the development of prehab educational modules based on users’ input.

In Search of Originality in Central and Eastern European Legal Culture Culture(s). 4th Annual CEENELS Conference: Legal Innovativeness in Central and Eastern Europe, Moscow, 14–15 June 2019

The paper describes the debates which took place during the 4th Annual CEENELS Conference (Moscow, 14–15 June 2019). The aim of the conference was to analyse the issue of legal innovativeness in Central and Eastern Europe, the topic which was chosen as a continuation of previous CEENELS conferences. The organizers wanted to challenge the widespread belief that the legal culture of Central and Eastern Europe lacks original and innovative concepts and ideas. Even if the conference did not bring a definitive answer about the character of Central and Eastern European countries’ legal culture, it showed that the region is not only a territory of legal transplants and reception of legal ideas, concepts and institutions, created in Western Europe or the US.