scholarly journals The Effectiveness of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (134) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavol Jurča ◽  
Ján Klacso ◽  
Eugen Tereanu ◽  
Marco Forletta ◽  
Marco Gross

We develop a semi-structural quantitative framework that combines micro and macroeconomic data to assess the effectiveness of combinations of borrower-based macroprudential measures in Slovakia. We expand on the integrated dynamic household balance sheet model of Gross and Población (2017) by introducing an endogenous loan granting feature, in turn to quantify the potential (ex-ante) impact of macroprudential measures on resilience parameters, compared with a counterfactual no-policy scenario, under adverse macroeconomic conditions. We conclude that (1) borrower-based measures can noticeably improve household and bank resilience to macroeconomic downturns, in particular when multiple measures are applied; (2) those measures tend to complement each other, as the impact of individual instruments is transmitted via different channels; and (3) the resilience benefits are more sizeable if the measures effectively limit the accumulation of risks before an economic downturn occurs, suggesting that an early, preemptive implementation of borrower-based measures is indeed warranted.

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-210
Author(s):  
Alejandro Hazera ◽  
Carmen Quirvan ◽  
Salvador Marin-Hernandez

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the basic binomial option pricing model (BOPM) might be used by regulators to help formulate rules, prior to financial crisis, that help prevent loan overstatement by banks in emerging market economies undergoing financial crises. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on the theory of soft budget constraints (SBC) to construct a simple model in which banks overstate loans to minimize losses. The model is used to illustrate how guarantees of bailout assistance (BA) (to banks) by crisis stricken countries’ financial authorities may encourage banks to overstate loans and delay the implementation of IFRS for loan valuation. However, the model also illustrates how promises of BA may be depicted as binomial put options which provide banks with the option of either: reporting loan values on poor projects accurately and receiving the loans’ liquidation values; or, overstating loans and receiving the guaranteed BA. An illustration is also provided of how authorities may use this representation to help minimize bank loan overstatement in periods of financial crisis. In order to provide an illustration of how the option value of binomial assistance may evolve during a financial crisis, the model is generalized to the Mexican financial crisis of the late 1990s. During this period, Mexican authorities’ guarantees of BA to the nation’s largest banks encouraged those institutions to overstate loans and delay the implementation of (previously adopted) international “best practices” based loan valuation standards. Findings – Application of the model to the Mexican financial crisis provides evidence that, in spite of Mexico’s “official” 1997 adoption of international “best accounting practices” for banks, “iron clad” guarantees of BA by the country’s financial authorities to Mexico’s largest banks provided those institutions with an incentive to knowingly overstate loans in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Research limitations/implications – The model is compared against only one country in which the BA was directly infused into banks’ loan portfolios. Thus, as conceived, it is directly applicable to crisis countries in which the bailout took this form. However, the many quantitative variations of SBC models as well as recent studies which have applied the binomial model to other forms of bailout (e.g. direct purchases of bank shares by authorities) suggest that the model could be modified to accommodate different bailout scenarios. Practical implications – The model and application show that guaranteed BA can be viewed as a put option and that ex-ante regulatory policies based on the correct valuation of the BA as a binomial option might prevent banks from overstating loans. Social implications – Use of the binomial or similar approaches to valuing BA may help regulators to determine the level of BA that will not encourage banks to overstate the value of their loans. Originality/value – Recent research has used the BOPM to value, on an ex-post basis, the BA which appears on the balance sheet of institutions which have been rescued. However, little research has advocated the use of this type of model to help prevent, on an ex-ante basis, the overstatement of loans on poor projects.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-215
Author(s):  
Aishwarya Nagpal ◽  
Megha Jain

The macroeconomic policies of a nation have a major bearing on the financial performance of the companies and their potential sustainability and growth. This study investigates the impact of monetary policy on the corporate leverage adjustment through microscopic monetary policy transmission channels, mainly the interest rate and credit channels, using a sample of 422 manufacturing firms in India from 2011 to 2017 by employing partial adjustment model. The findings suggest that contractionary monetary policy cuts down overall corporate debt. The study further asserts that corporate debt in Indian firms demonstrates target behaviour and the speed at which firms adjust their actual debt ratios towards target debt ratios is a function of not only firm-specific characteristics but also macroeconomic conditions prevailing in the country, proxied by monetary policy indicators in our study. The study has critical policy implications as the balance sheet situation of corporates is a crucial factor in the financial stability of the economy.


2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 969-996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Gyung H. Paik ◽  
Joyce A. van der Laan Smith ◽  
Brandon Byunghwan Lee ◽  
Sung Wook Yoon

SYNOPSIS Proposed changes by the FASB and the IASB to lease accounting standards will substantially change the accounting for operating leases by requiring the capitalization of future lease payments. We consider the impact of these changes on firms' debt covenants by examining the frequency of income-statement- versus balance-sheet-based accounting ratios in debt covenants of firms in high and low Off Balance Sheet (OBS) lease industries. Based on debt contracts from the 1996–2009 period, our results provide evidence that lenders focus on balance sheet (income statement) ratios in designing debt covenants for borrowers in low (high) OBS lease industries. Further, the use of balance-sheet- (income-statement-) based covenants falls (rises) faster in high OBS lease industries than in low OBS lease industries as the use of OBS leasing increases. This evidence indicates that OBS operating leases influence lenders' use of accounting information in covenants, suggesting that creditors consider the impact of OBS leases when structuring debt agreements. These results also suggest that the proposed capitalization of OBS leases may not result in firms violating loan covenants but will make the balance sheet a more complete source of information for debt contracting by removing the need for constructive capitalization of OBS leases.


Games ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Luis Santos-Pinto ◽  
Tiago Pires

We analyze the impact of overconfidence on the timing of entry in markets, profits, and welfare using an extension of the quantity commitment game. Players have private information about costs, one player is overconfident, and the other one rational. We find that for slight levels of overconfidence and intermediate cost asymmetries, there is a unique cost-dependent equilibrium where the overconfident player has a higher ex-ante probability of being the Stackelberg leader. Overconfidence lowers the profit of the rational player but can increase that of the overconfident player. Consumer rents increase with overconfidence while producer rents decrease which leads to an ambiguous welfare effect.


Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 925
Author(s):  
Lutz Depenbusch ◽  
Cathy Rozel Farnworth ◽  
Pepijn Schreinemachers ◽  
Thuzar Myint ◽  
Md Monjurul Islam ◽  
...  

Agricultural mechanization has spread across much of Asia since the 1960s. It has increased agricultural productivity and reduced arduous farm work. However, differing impacts for smallholders and hired laborers, and for men and women, require careful consideration. This study analyzed, ex-ante, the likely social and economic tradeoffs of mechanizing the mungbean harvest in Bangladesh and Myanmar. We used a mixed methods approach combining survey data from 852 farm households with in-depth interviews in four villages. Partial budget analysis shows that mechanical harvesting of mungbean is not yet profitable for most farms. There is nevertheless an incentive to mechanize as the associated timeliness of the harvest reduces the risk of harvest losses from weather shocks. Men and women farmers expect time savings and reduced drudgery. The results confirm that hired workers depend on manual harvesting for income and status in both countries. Most hired workers are landless married women with limited access to other sources of income. In the short term, farmers are likely to combine manual harvests and a final mechanized harvest of the indeterminate crop. This could mediate the impact on hired workers. However, in the long term, it will be necessary to facilitate income-generating opportunities for women in landless rural families to maintain their well-being and income.


Author(s):  
Jorge Salgado ◽  
José Ramírez-Álvarez ◽  
Diego Mancheno

AbstractThe 16 April 2016 earthquake in Ecuador exposed the significant weaknesses concerning the methodological designs to compute—from an economic standpoint—the consequences of a natural hazard-related disaster for productive exchanges and the accumulation of capital in Ecuador. This study addressed one of these challenges with an innovative ex ante model to measure the partial and net short-term effects of a natural hazard-related catastrophe from an interregional perspective, with the 16 April 2016 earthquake serving as a case study. In general, the specified and estimated model follows the approach of the extended Miyazawa model, which endogenizes consumption demand in a standard input–output model with the subnational interrelations and resulting multipliers. Due to the country’s limitations in its regional account records the input–output matrices for each province of Ecuador had to be estimated, which then allowed transactions carried out between any two sectors within or outside a given province to be identified by means of the RAS method. The estimations provide evidence that the net short-term impact on the national accounts was not significant, and under some of the simulated scenarios, based on the official information with respect to earthquake management, the impact may even have had a positive effect on the growth of the national product during 2016.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Наталия Александровна Иванова

Актуальность исследования для экономики усиливается такими явлениями, как влияние мирового финансового кризиса, усложнение отраслевой и территориальной структуры производства, усиление интеграции всех сфер общественной жизни, возрастание значения экологических, социальных и политических факторов развития общества, повышение трансакционных издержек принятия решений в сфере управления. Изучение литературы о территориях дает основание определить понятие региональной системы России как элемент, подсистему некоторой иерархической системы, в роли которой выступает национальная экономика. Процессы глобализации коренным образом изменяют роль регионов в национальной экономике. Регион постепенно становится не только отдельным экономическим агентом, но также вступает в мировые конкурентные процессы. Положение территориально-организованных систем оказывается зависимым не только от макроэкономических условий или возможностей самих регионов, но также от расстановки конкурентных сил, механизмов взаимодействия регионов с другими субъектами. В этой связи возникает необходимость системных исследований с целью выработки комплекса мер, которые будут способствовать повышению конкурентоспособности экономики в целом, ее регионов в частности. Существующий инструментарий региональной экономики является уже недостаточным для анализа такого рода проблем, а традиционный конкурентный анализ не рассматривает регионы в качестве субъектов конкуренции. Требуется расширение и применение новых теоретических подходов к анализу региональных экономических систем и эффективности их развития, формированию целостной концепции развития территориальной организации хозяйства, что обусловило актуальность данного исследования. The relevance of the study for the economy is enhanced by such phenomena as the impact of the global financial crisis, the complication of the sectoral and territorial structure of production, the strengthening of integration of all spheres of public life, the increasing importance of environmental, social and political factors in the development of society, the increase in transaction costs of decision-making in the field of management. The study of the literature on territories gives grounds to define the concept of the regional system of Russia as an element, a subsystem of some hierarchical system, in the role of which the national economy acts. The processes of globalization are fundamentally changing the role of regions in the national economy. The region is gradually becoming not only a separate economic agent, but also enters into global competitive processes. The position of geographically organized systems turns out to depend not only on the macroeconomic conditions or the capabilities of the regions themselves, but also on the alignment of competitive forces, the mechanisms of interaction of regions with other entities. In this regard, there is a need for systematic research in order to develop a set of measures that will contribute to improving the competitiveness of the economy as a whole, its regions in particular. The existing tools of the regional economy are no longer sufficient to analyze such problems, and traditional competitive analysis does not consider regions as subjects of competition. It requires the expansion and application of new theoretical approaches to the analysis of regional economic systems and the effectiveness of their development, the formation of an integral concept of the development of the territorial organization of the economy, which determined the relevance of this study.


2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Lee Nakyung ◽  
Im Tobin

Within the continuing economic downturn, our society has been facing rapid dichotomization and bi-polarization between groups which reinforces social inequality. Young (2011) states that social inequality should be viewed as a concept of oppression, not by the distribution of resources, which has been considered as a general indicator of social inequality. Following her argument, she suggests exploitation, marginalization, powerlessness, cultural imperialism, and violence as sub-concepts of oppression. In this sense, this study uses the distribution of resources as an independent variable and the ‘perceived oppression’ presented by Young as a dependent variable to identify the role of social support as a factor that makes the difference between social-structural inequality and contextual inequality. Through hierarchical regression analyses and bootstrapping methods this paper looks at how the two different perspectives on inequality are related, and how the social support mediates the relationship between socio-economic position and perceived oppression. By shedding light on the meaning of socio-economic isolation of individuals, this study will contribute to the academia in searching for the alternatives to strengthen the stability of our society where the new paradigm of communication is being used to form network ties and corresponding sense of supports.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 25-36
Author(s):  
M. I. Lugachev ◽  
N. V. Ulianova ◽  
K. G. Skripkin

The purpose of the article is to theoretically prove the possibility of generating forecast information in the balance-sheet regarding profit indicators, net inflow of operating money and financial capital. According to the authors, the system of these indicators is revealed in dynamics, thus reflecting the impact of profit on the financial condition of the organization. A logical and accounting balance-sheet relationship is established between actual and forecast indicators that characterize the financial condition in the past and future. By analyzing the processes in the operating cycle, the economic and financial feasibility of operating profit as a net cash flow from operating activities is theoretically proved. Based on the process approach and the induction method, the indicator of operating profit is included in the valuation of the asset and liability side of the balance-sheet, thereby developing the valuation method and forming a new forecast model of balance-sheet generalizations. The content of the forecast model of balance is described in the form of a balance equation. The obtained theoretical conclusions are verified experimentally.As a result, the asset of the balance-sheet reflects the process of transforming the value of operational resources into their selling price, and the forecast operating profit is generated in the liability side of the balance-sheet, which relates to assets and liabilities recognized in accounting at the current time. Cost parameter and value index are introduced, which characterize the indicators of income and expenses as the transformation of operational resources. Any change in the cost of resources used and the possible price (value) of their sale is reflected in the balance-sheet and affects the change in the estimate of forecast operating profit in real time. At the same time, due to the simultaneous recognition in the balance-sheet of actual and forecast estimates of assets and liabilities and the indicator of forecast operating profit, the indicator of financial capital receives a new interpretation. If we compare the value of assets and accounts payable, then financial capital characterizes the security of operating activities with own sources of financing in the past. If we compare the selling price of assets and account payable, then financial capital shows the forecast for repayment of account payable at the expense of own funds in the future. Consequently, the transition from actual to forecast estimates in the balance-sheet reveals the process of the circulation of operating capital and shows how much profit is provided by investments in working stocks made in the past. Due to the double recording method, any forecast estimates can be verified by the user, which increases the reliability of the forecast information in the balance-sheet.In fact, the balance-sheet is interpreted as a new method of analysis and forecasting of financial and economic indicators characterizing the activities of the organization. At the same time, it is not necessary to perform additional analytical calculations, forecast operating profit and analysis of its impact on financial capital can be carried out in real time as often as accounting entries are made that affect the change in working capital.


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