“Realistic Choice of Annual Matrices Contracts the Range of λS Estimates” under Reproductive Uncertainty Too

Our study is devoted to a subject popular in the field of matrix population models, namely, estimating the stochastic growth rate, λS, a quantitative measure of long-term population viability, for a discrete-stage-structured population monitored during many years. “Reproductive uncertainty” refers to a feature inherent in the data and life cycle graph (LCG) when the LCG has more than one reproductive stage, but when the progeny cannot be associated to a parent stage in a unique way. Reproductive uncertainty complicates the procedure of λS estimation following the defining of λS from the limit of a sequence consisting of population projection matrices (PPMs) chosen randomly from a given set of annual PPMs. To construct a Markov chain that governs the choice of PPMs for a local population of Eritrichium caucasicum, an short-lived perennial alpine plant species, we have found a local weather index that is correlated with the variations in the annual PPMs, and we considered its long time series as a realization of the Markov chain that was to be constructed. Reproductive uncertainty has required a proper modification of how to restore the transition matrix from a long realization of the chain, and the restored matrix has been governing random choice in several series of Monte Carlo simulations of long-enough sequences. The resulting ranges of λS estimates turn out to be more narrow than those obtained by the popular i.i.d. methods of random choice (independent and identically distributed matrices); hence, we receive a more accurate and reliable forecast of population viability.

Caliphate; is it Theological Inevitability or Sociological Experimentation?

The main objective of this study was to investigate the ontological status of the caliphate as a sociological experimentation. The study was a library research which adopted a descriptive analytical method through reading various literatures with a philosophical historical approach. The data were obtained from a variety of credible literature and other various supporting information then presented with a strong analytical instrument based on the normative foundation and thoughts of the figures to generate a deeper elaboration of ideas. The result showed that the relationship between religion and the state was a matter of pure contact with public reason. The absence of religious sharih texts in state matters, including models and singular forms of state practice, is an indisputable reason for the profanity of the Khilafah. The state practices exemplified by the Prophet and Companions were nothing more than sociological experiments. The experiment of the Prophet and purely sociological relative is not a theological necessity. The state is in principle an institution designed to realize benefit as the highest moral principle and locus of the view of the universal will. As an alternative to the caliphate model which is outdated and impossible to revive, a democratic state is a realistic choice because it is in accordance with the development of modern life and is an effort to approach universal human values

There Is No Fool Like an Old Fool: The Experiences of Elderlies Regarding Remarriage in Iran

Objectives: Despite the positive effects of remarriage on elderlies’ quality of life, marriage in this period is a taboo among people of the society. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the experiences of the elderly regarding remarriage. Methods: This conventional content analysis study was conducted in Iran during 2018. Semi-structured interviews with 20 elderlies living in Tehran were conducted to collect data. For data analysis, Graneheim and Lundman’s approach was adopted. The interviews were continued until reaching data saturation. Results: After data analysis, four main categories and 14 subcategories appeared. The main categories included “there is no fool like an old fool”, “spring in autumn”, “gift of old age”, and “realistic choice.” Conclusions: Remarriage prevents many future problems for elderlies, such as the feeling of rejection, loneliness, isolation, depression, and low self-esteem. Therefore, serious efforts and planning are required to promote the knowledge level of the society regarding this issue.

Key factors of the willingness of rural populations settling in cities (RPSC) from a Lacanian psychoanalysis theory perspective

The migration of populations from rural to urban areas is a typical phenomenon of urbanization in developing countries. Based on Lacanian psychoanalysis theory, this study analyzes the decision-making mechanism of the willingness of rural populations settling in cities (RPSC), and analyzes the key factors that affect the willingness of RPSC by using the binary Logit regression method based on survey data in Changyi, China. The results show that the willingness of RPSC is a realistic choice under the joint action of the ‘mirrored’ incarnation and the ‘non-mirrored’ order. Among the factors, ‘age’, ‘ethnic groups’, ‘educational attainment’, and ‘social intercourse’, representing the ‘mirrored’ incarnation, and ‘communities’ safety gap’, ‘healthcare services policy’, ‘public housing policy’ and ‘employment insurance gap’, representing the ‘non-mirrored’ order, are significant in affecting the willingness of RPSC. These findings validate the adaptability of psychoanalysis to analyze the willingness of RPSC, and increases the understanding of individual willingness and behavioral choice in the context of a specific social background, which can provide decision-making reference for urban and rural planning and public policy makers.

Realistic Choice of Annual Matrices Contracts the Range of λS Estimates

In matrix population modeling the multi-year monitoring of a population structure results in a set of annual population projection matrices (PPMs), which gives rise to the stochastic growth rate λS, a quantitative measure of long-term population viability. This measure is usually found in the paradigm of population growth in a variable environment. The environment is represented by the set of PPMs, and λS ensues from a long sequence of PPMs chosen at random from the given set. because the known rules of random choice, such as the iid (independent and identically distributed) matrices, are generally artificial, the challenge is to find a more realistic rule. We achieve this with the a following a Markov chain that models, in a certain sense, the real variations in the environment. We develop a novel method to construct the ruling Markov chain from long-term weather data and to simulate, in a Monte Carlo mode, the long sequences of PPMs resulting in the estimates of λS. The stochastic nature of sequences causes the estimates to vary within some range, and we compare the range obtained by the “realistic choice” from 10 PPMs for a local population of a Red-Book species to those using the iid choice. As noted in the title of this paper, this realistic choice contracts the range of λS estimates, thus improving the estimation and confirming the Red-Book status of the species.

Brexit and Its Impact on Poland’s Policy Towards Europe – An Attempt to Forecast

Brexit has betrayed the disadvantages of the European project along with the fact that European institutions have no desire to conduct deeper reforms. Brexit cannot be considered without the stance that the British have developed not only in the last few years but generally over the period of its integration with continental Europe. A study shows the political consequences of the UK’s exit from the European Union alog with the potential scenarios of Poland’s European policy in the next 2–3 years. This article presents three scenarios for the development of Poland's European policy, i.e. the British scenario, a conservative scenario and a pro-European scenario. In addition, this article aims to show the potential activities of the Polish government in the context of selected scenarios for the development of the situation in Europe. Currently, the most likely is the British scenario, where the Polish government concentrates on those areas of integration that are important to it. The European Union will be treated by Poland as an economic organization providing access to the common European market as well as political support in the event of disputes with the powers. The adoption of the British scenario by Poland assumes an evolutionary drift towards polexit. The least realistic choice of scenario is the strongly pro-European approach. This would require a total change in Poland's European policy strategy and the abandoning of internal reforms.

Research on Talent Cultivation Strategy of Adult Universities under the Background of “Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation”

As a new educational concept and practice, innovation and entrepreneurship education has attracted enough attention in global adult colleges and universities. Strengthening innovation and entrepreneurship education and training innovation and entrepreneurship talents are the new requirements of innovation and development for the country’s innovation construction, the realistic choice of innovation for traditional education and accelerating the reform and development of adult colleges and universities, the inevitable requirement of improving the quality of graduates, and the promotion of College Students’ integration into the tide of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation”. Starting from the analysis of the current situation of innovation and entrepreneurship education in colleges and universities, based on the era background of “mass entrepreneurship, mass innovation”, taking the cultivation of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation” as the goal, this paper discusses the construction method of innovation and entrepreneurship curriculum system with ability as the core, students as the main body and market as the guide, and puts forward that it is necessary to update the educational concept, correctly position the training goal, and formulate and improve the entrepreneurship curriculum. We should reform the talent evaluation system of adult colleges and universities, strengthen the power of entrepreneurship and innovation mentors, and strengthen the cooperation between schools and enterprises. We should innovate the talent training mode of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation” in adult colleges and universities, put forward proposals for the implementation of the new talent training mode of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation” in adult colleges and universities, and provide theoretical support for the cultivation of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation” talents in adult colleges and universities.