Projections for obesity, smoking and hypertension based on multiple imputation

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110610
Author(s):  
Jaakko Reinikainen ◽  
Tommi Härkänen ◽  
Hanna Tolonen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Multiple Imputation ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Health Examination ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
The Future ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity

Aims: Information on the future development of prevalences of risk factors and health indicators is needed to prepare for the forthcoming burden of disease in the population and to allocate resources properly for prevention. We aim to present how multiple imputation can be used flexibly to project future prevalences. Methods: The proposed approach uses data on repeated cross-sectional surveys from different years. We create future samples with age and sex distributions corresponding to the official national population forecasts. Then, the risk factors are simulated using multiple imputation by chained equations. Finally, the imputations are pooled to obtain the prevalences of interest. Covariates, such as sociodemographic variables as well as their possible interactions and non-linear terms, can be included in the modelling. The future development of these covariates is also projected simultaneously. We apply the procedure to data from five Finnish health examination surveys conducted between 1997 and 2017, and project the prevalences of obesity, smoking and hypertension to 2020 and 2025. Results: The prevalence of obesity is projected to increase to 24% for both men and women in 2025. The prevalences of hypertension and smoking are expected to continue decreasing, and the differences between men and women are projected to remain so that men will have higher prevalences. Conclusions: Simulation of future observations by multiple imputation can be used as a flexible yet relatively easy-to-use projection method.

scholarly journals Protocol of a research project ‘Projections of the burden of disease and disability in Finland – health policy prospects’ using cross-sectional health surveys and register-based follow-up

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. e029338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Paalanen ◽  
Tommi Härkänen ◽  
Hanna Tolonen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Health Policy ◽  
Burden Of Disease ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Health Examination ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Future

IntroductionWith the rapid ageing of the population in Europe, reliable estimates of the future development of the disease and disability burden as well as healthy life years in the older sections of the population are crucial. Meanwhile, the future prospects of the health and functional ability of the working-aged population are critical. The aims ofthe Projections of the burden of disease and disability in Finland – health policy prospectsresearch project are to provide information about the long-term consequences of health-related behaviours of the population and to project the potential improvement of the burden of disease and disability based on realistic scenarios about the development of risk behaviours in the total population and its subgroups.Methods and analysisThe analyses will be based on data from representative cross-sectional and longitudinal health examination surveys (HESs) conducted between 1972 to 2017 in Finland, and register data from several national administrative registers. Included HESs (FINRISK Surveys from 1972 to 2012, Mini-Finland Survey from 1978 to 1980, the Health 2000/2011 Surveys and the FinHealth 2017 Study) provide abundant information about biological and behavioural risk factors and the health and morbidity of the population. The modifiable risk factors used as predictors include hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, obesity, diabetes, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol use and unfavourable diet. The main outcomes are ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Alzheimer’s disease and diabetes. Within the project, novel projection techniques of data-driven Bayesian hierarchical models to provide robust and comparable estimates will be developed.Ethics and disseminationThe prevailing legislation and regulations have been followed for all surveys. Surveys since 1997 have been approved by the respective Ethics Committees covering the scope of this project. A written informed consent was obtained from participants since 1997. The outputs of the project will include 8 to 10 scientific papers in peer-reviewed journals.

Obesity in relation to risk factors and socioeconomic conditions among school-age children at Khartoum State 2011/2012

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 413-416
Author(s):  
Dr. Suzan Ail Yousif Abo* ,Dr. ALI abdalazez Salih
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
Anthropometric Measurement ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
School Year ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity ◽  
Class Room ◽  
Watching Tv

This is a descriptive cross-sectional study that was carried out at Khartoum Stateduring the school year 20112/2012 to estimate the prevalence of obesity among schoolchildren aged 6-15 years and to investigate the relationship between BMI (Body MassIndex) and socioeconomic status and life style factors. Two hundred and fifty pupilsparticipated in this study. The researcher took the anthropometric measurement insidethe class room and gave the questionnaire the students to be answered by one of child’sparents. The data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences(SPSS Version 13.0).In this study, prevalence of obesity was found to be (48%) of them 18% males and 30%females. Income of the family, number of high caloric carbonated beverages/week, wayof transportation to school, length of daily playing outside the home, and time spentin watching TV and video games were significantly correlated with student’s BMI.While parent’s BMI was not having significant correlation with student’s BMI.This study is considered as the first study in its field regarding this age category inKhartoum State, and it is promoting future researches in obesity and its determinant.Key words: Obesity in relation to risk factors and socioeconomic conditions amongschool-age children

Prevalence of obesity and its risk factors among school children in Karachi, Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 266-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naveed Mansoori ◽  
Nighat Nisar ◽  
Naveen Shahid ◽  
Syed Muhammad Mubeen ◽  
Shahid Ahsan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
School Children ◽  
Dietary Habits ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Growth Chart ◽  
Sociodemographic Characteristics ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity

A cross-sectional questionnaire study was conducted during 2012 in private and public-sector schools of Karachi to determine the prevalence and factors influencing overweight and obesity among school children (aged 11–15 years). Sociodemographic characteristics and dietary habits were explored. The CDC Growth Chart was used to record height and weight. Of a total of 887 children, being overweight and frankly obese was found in 169 (19.1%) and 96 (10.8%), respectively. Of these, 176 (66.4%) were from private schools, and significant associations were found in 202 (76.2%) who were spending > 2 h/day watching television and 139 (52.5%) sleeping > 8 h/day.

Do We Fatten Our Children at the Television Set? Obesity and Television Viewing in Children and Adolescents

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1985 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. 807-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
William H. Dietz ◽  
Steven L. Gortmaker
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
National Health ◽  
Television Viewing ◽  
Temporal Sequence ◽  
Health Examination ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Three Samples ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity ◽  
Family Variables

The association of television viewing and obesity in data collected during cycles II and III of the National Health Examination Survey was examined. Cycle II examined 6,965 children aged 6 to 11 years and cycle III examined 6,671 children aged 12 to 17 years. Included in the cycle III sample were 2,153 subjects previously studied during cycle II. These surveys, therefore, provided two cross-sectional samples and one prospective sample. In all three samples, significant associations of the time spent watching television and the prevalence of obesity were observed. In 12- to 17-year-old adolescents, the prevalence of obesity increased by 2% for each additional hour of television viewed. The associations persisted when controlled for prior obesity, region, season, population density, race, socioeconomic class, and a variety of other family variables. The consistency, temporal sequence, strength, and specificity of the associations suggest that television viewing may cause obesity in at least some children and adolescents. The potential effects of obesity on activity and the consumption of calorically dense foods are consistent with this hypothesis.

Abstract P359: Cardiovascular Risk Factor and Diseases in the Italian Adult Population: The National Health Examination Surveys 2008-2012

Circulation ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 127 (suppl_12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Donfrancesco ◽  
Luigi Palmieri ◽  
Cinzia Lo Noce ◽  
Francesco Dima ◽  
Amalia De Curtis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Smoking Habit ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Health Examination ◽  
Biochemical Tests ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Italian Regions

Background: From 2008 to 2012 an Health Examination Survey (HES)-Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare (OEC) has been implemented in Italy with the aim of assessing cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, prevalence of risk conditions and CV diseases for the Italian adult population. Methods: Random samples of general population stratified by age and sex were examined in all Italian regions (participation rate 56%). Risk factor were collected using standardized procedures and methods; biochemical tests were assayed in a central laboratory; a questionnaire investigates behaviours and CVD history; a ECG read in Minnesota code was used to define previous myocardial infarction. Comparisons between men and women were assessed using t-test for means and chi-squared test for prevalence. Results: Data of 4371 men and 4339 women ages 35-79 years were analysed. Majority of risk factors mean levels resulted higher in men than in women: systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 134 mmHg and 129 mmHg (p<0.0001), diastolic (DBP) was 84 mmHg and 79 mmHg (p<0.0001), fasting plasma glucose was 103 mg/dl and 95 mg/dl (p<0.0001), triglycerides was 135 mg/dl and 108 mg/dl (p<0.0001), respectively; as well as many CV risk conditions: smoking habit was 21% in men and 18% in women (p<0.0001), diabetes was 14% in men and 9% in women (p<0.0001) (28% of diabetic unaware both in men and women), 56% of men and 43% of women have SBP>=140 mmHg or DBP>=90 mmHg or in treatment (p<0.0001), 65% of men and 70% of women have total cholesterol (TC) >=200 mg/dl or in treatment for (p<0.0001), 48% of men and 33% of women are in overweight (BMI 25-29 kg/m 2 ) (p<0.0001). TC, LDL and HDL cholesterol resulted lower in men than in women: 209 mg/dl and 218 (44) (p<0.0001), 131 (38) mg/dl and 134 mg/dl (p<0.0001), 51 mg/dl and 62 mg/dl (p<0.0001), respectively. As well as prevalence of physical inactivity during leisure time: 31% in men and 43% in women (p<0.0001). Prevalence of obesity (BMI>=30 kg/m 2 ) resulted similar in men and women: 25% and 27% respectively (p=0.0818). Prevalence of myocardial infarction was 2.1% in men and 0.7% in women (p<0.0001), prevalence of by-pass or angioplasty surgery was 5.1% and 1.0% (p<0.0001), prevalence of angina pectoris was 3.2% and in 4.8% (p<0.0001), respectively. Conclusions: At present obesity and smoking are still a priority in public health. In combination with other information sources, the OEC can contribute greatly to plan community actions and health services at national and regional level.

scholarly journals Prevalence and Risk Factors of Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease in China: A Cross-Sectional Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuling Chen ◽  
Hao Li ◽  
Shu Li ◽  
Zhou Xu ◽  
Shen Tian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Liver Disease ◽  
Fatty Liver ◽  
Fatty Liver Disease ◽  
Metabolic Disorders ◽  
Menopausal Status ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Health Examination ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Cross Sectional

Abstract BackgroundMetabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a new definition for liver disease associated with known metabolic dysfunction. Based on new diagnostic criteria, we aim to investigate its prevalence and risk factors in Chinese.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was implemented on 139170 subjects who participated in health examination.Results Among 139170 subjects, prevalence of MAFLD was 26.1% (males: 35.4%; females: 14.1%), and it was significantly higher before 65-year-old in males than that in females (36.2% vs. 12.2%, P<0.001), however significantly lower after 65 (28.2% vs. 33.0%, P<0.001). The prevalence in different female menopausal status (premenopause, perimenopause, postmenopause) was 6.1%,16.8%, and 30.2%, in BMI groups (underweight, normal, overweight and obese), it was 0.1%, 4.0%, 27.4% and 59.8%. Proportions of abnormal metabolic features in MAFLD group were significantly higher than those in non-MAFLD group, so as the proportion of elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (42.5% vs. 11%, P<0.001). Prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS), dyslipidemia, and hyperuricemia in MAFLD group (53.2%, 80.0%, and 45.0%) was significantly higher than that in non-MAFLD group (10.1%, 41.7%, and 16.8%). Logistic regression revealed that age, BMI, waist circumference, ALT, triglyceride, fasting glucose, uric acid and platelet count were associated with MAFLD.ConclusionsMAFLD is prevalent in China, its prevalence varies among different groups of age, gender, BMI, and female menopausal status. MAFLD was related to metabolic disorders especially obesity. People with MAFLD suffer high prevalence of MS, dyslipidemia, hyperuricemia, and elevated liver enzymes. Metabolic disorders should be paid attention to improve management of MAFLD.

scholarly journals A cross sectional study to estimate prevalence of obesity and its risk factors in adolescent school children in Western Maharashtra, India

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
pp. 3072
Author(s):  
Jagannath S. Shete ◽  
Anjali V. Wagh
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
School Children ◽  
Dietary Habits ◽  
Junk Food ◽  
Age Group ◽  
School Students ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity ◽  
Estimate Prevalence

Background: There is an increase in prevalence of childhood obesity and its chronic health effects especially in developing countries like India in last 2-3 decades. This study is small effort to know prevalence and risk factors causing obesity. Aim of the study was to estimate prevalence of obesity and its risk factors in school students of age group 11 to 16 years.Methods: About 207 adolescent school children from selected school were enrolled in the study. Research tool comprised of questions about demographic characteristics, daily physical activity, frequency of having junk food intake etc. Height and weight were measured on calibrated scales. For statistical analysis MS Excel and SPSS 16 were used.Results: Among participants 58.9% were boys. 66.7% students were in the 13 to 14 years of age group. As per body mass index, 46.9% children were underweight and 8.7% were obese. 77.3% participants were eating junk food more than once in a week.Conclusions: Health education on dietary habits and physical activity is needed for adolescent children to prevent development of obesity and complications related to it.

scholarly journals Optimal waist:height ratio cut-off point for cardiometabolic risk factors in Turkish adults

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 488-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmet Selçuk Can ◽  
Emine Akal Yıldız ◽  
Gülhan Samur ◽  
Neslişah Rakıcıoğlu ◽  
Gülden Pekcan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Cardiometabolic Risk ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Cardiometabolic Risk Factors ◽  
Youden Index ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Men And Women

AbstractObjectiveTo identify the optimal waist:height ratio (WHtR) cut-off point that discriminates cardiometabolic risk factors in Turkish adults.DesignCross-sectional study. Hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes, metabolic syndrome score ≥2 (presence of two or more metabolic syndrome components except for waist circumference) and at least one risk factor (diabetes, hypertension or dyslipidaemia) were categorical outcome variables. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were prepared by plotting 1 − specificity on the x-axis and sensitivity on the y-axis. The WHtR value that had the highest Youden index was selected as the optimal cut-off point for each cardiometabolic risk factor (Youden index = sensitivity + specificity − 1).SettingTurkey, 2003.SubjectsAdults (1121 women and 571 men) aged 18 years and over were examined.ResultsAnalysis of ROC coordinate tables showed that the optimal cut-off value ranged between 0·55 and 0·60 and was almost equal between men and women. The sensitivities of the identified cut-offs were between 0·63 and 0·81, the specificities were between 0·42 and 0·71 and the accuracies were between 0·65 and 0·73, for men and women. The cut-off point of 0·59 was the most frequently identified value for discrimination of the studied cardiometabolic risk factors. Subjects classified as having WHtR ≥ 0·59 had significantly higher age and sociodemographic multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for cardiometabolic risk factors than subjects with WHtR < 0·59, except for diabetes in men.ConclusionsWe show that the optimal WHtR cut-off point to discriminate cardiometabolic risk factors is 0·59 in Turkish adults.

scholarly journals Associations of tobacco smoking with body mass distribution; a population-based study of 65,875 men and women in midlife

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidsel Graff-Iversen ◽  
Stephen Hewitt ◽  
Lisa Forsén ◽  
Liv Grøtvedt ◽  
Inger Ariansen
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Body Region ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Never Smokers

Abstract Background Studies indicate an effect of smoking toward abdominal obesity, but few assess hip and waist circumferences (HC and WC) independently. The present study aimed to assess the associations of smoking status and volume smoked with HC and WC and their ratio in a population with low prevalence of obesity together with high prevalence of smoking. Methods We used cross-sectional survey data from 11 of a total 19 Norwegian counties examined in 1997–99 including 65,875 men and women aged 39–44 years. Analysis of associations were adjusted for confounding by socioeconomic position, health indicators, and additionally for BMI. Results Compared with never-smokers, when adjusting for confounders and in addition for BMI, mean HC remained lower while mean WC and waist-hip-ratio (WHR) were higher in current smokers. The finding of a lower HC and higher WHR level among smokers was consistent by sex and in strata by levels of education and physical activity, while the finding of higher WC by smoking was less consistent. Among current smokers, BMI-adjusted mean HC decreased whereas WC and WHR increased by volume smoked. Compared with current smokers, former smokers had higher BMI-adjusted HC, lower WHR and among women WC was lower. Conclusions The main finding in this study was the consistent negative associations of smoking with HC. In line with the hypothesis that lower percentage gluteofemoral fat is linked with higher cardiovascular risk, our results suggest that smoking impacts cardiovascular risk through mechanisms that reduce the capacity of fat storage in the lower body region.

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